Coming up for the rest of the hour. The chairman and ceo of train technologies trane technologies, they do hvac. We will talk about how you recondition all of the airconditioning units that we have to allow us to basically eat and drink inside. A really important conversation as we think what will happen as we approach the autumn and fall. What will happen to the service side of the economy. The banks are in big focus. 93 man sachs reporting a surge in revenue on the stocks and bond trading in the Second Quarter. Highlights is our bloomberg wall street reporter. They have a lot of questions about the m a environment. Goldman the lead m a advisor. The backlogn saying is higher, but he expects activity to continue in the next two to four quarters. , but we will see them come back. There are a lot of uncertainties. One question was about the election season. Solomon warned that is a ways away. As we know in the u. S. There are major uncertainties with how largescale deals are viewed among many politicians here. Alix in relation to that you have this killer trading environment that they have swept up particularly with equities that isnder if sustainable and if we got anything on that. There will be some normalization, but volumes are high. They are not april or march levels, but compared to last year they are high. That is good to see from one of the Major Trading firms, that they do expect a fair degree of lift in that business through the end of the year. Thank you very much, i appreciate the round up. Now to talk more about banks is Gerard Cassidy head of has a 200 price target. You were on the call, you may still be on the call, what is your biggest . What is your biggest question mark . It of the capital park Capital Market banks put up big quarters. We sell results from jp morgan and citigroup. Is, though theon activities should be elevated in trading in the third and Fourth Quarter third and Fourth Quarters, we know that seasonally the Third Quarter tends to be lower than the Second Quarter and Fourth Quarter lower than Third Quarter in normal conditions. The Second Quarter quarter, enormous trading numbers are not going to be repeated in the Third Quarter. The jp morgan ceo, jamie dimon, suggested that investors should expect it to fall about 50 . Its hard to see if that will happen say if that will happen. That is an area where we should temper our enthusiasm, but the numbers are big. With m a, the advisory deals announced late last year are closing in the Second Quarter of this year. Due to all the uncertainty, m a new deals are way down, which means advisory revenues through the end of the year will be low relative to the first half of the year. Sachs is up by 6 10 of 1 . Is the market signaling this is as good as it gets . Market i think the anticipated goldmans numbers i know we were talking earlier in the week with investors that Party Company that calculates the number of deals and their numbers coming into the corridor for all the Market Players were much stronger than i think investors were expecting. That has played out. I think the stock had some of this benefit priced in. We are noticing the regional banks in the states that have been lagging, versus the universal banks that have the Capital Market businesses, that have been so strong, are really up strong today, partly due to the possibility of a vaccine finally being created which means the economy can get back to normal. These regional banks that have lagged will be the direct beneficiaries. Alix i feel like if we had this conversation seven to nine months ago we would have talked about markets and the transaction banks, deposits, and loans. This is so not that conversation. What did we learn about that part of the business, where solomon wanted to shift the business into . Gerard thats an interesting question. You are absolutely right, the tone and the direction of the conversation has shifted quite meaningfully in the last six to nine months. To, prior to the Trading Opportunities and Investment Banking opportunities in the First Six Months of 2020, business has been under considerable pressure in terms of ficc trading and equity trading. Equities were steadily down, that has been totally reversed with the first half of this year. AndCapital Market revenues portions of the goldman business have taken the front seat again. Those other areas like markets and the apple garden and the transactions and businesses they are trying to get into on the corporate side are taking a side seat because of the strength and Capital Markets. Move by goldman to diversify its revenue is a longterm strategy, they will continue to pursue it, but we will have these opportunities where Capital Markets and Investment Banking activities will take the front seat. Today in this quarter it is very positive. With a 30. 6 cet, is the dividend safe . Yes, we anticipate that what you will see for Goldman Sachs and others, that the dividends at this point in time are safe. Ratiouilt up their cet1 and we continue to see that growing through the second half of the year for goldman and other players. The key, and this is the unknown, you might recall the Federal Reserve in announcing their results announced they will put the banks up against another stress test later this year more severe than the one they went through in the first half of the year. They left the door open. Whether they will take those results and apply them when the new stress Capital Buffers go into place in october, we will have to wait and see. At this point in time, barring any real collapse in the u. S. Economy in the second half of the year and a collapse in the markets, i would say the dividend is safe like it is for many other big banks. Alix one big line item was goldman says they are going to raise 10 million for distressed credit funds, them and every other private equity firm in the country. Place going to get to a where the vulture vampire squid conversation comes back for goldman if they dont play this right . So,rd i dont think distressed signs that will come into play over the next 18 months will serve a purpose to clear the markets of distress debt which needs to does start to materialize due to the effects the economy has had on these overleveraged institutions that are in distress. To me, i dont see it as being what we saw in 2008 or 2009 when there was a real negative news ongoing about their contribution to the financial crisis. I just dont see that happening, because it is not just goldman, there have been Many Companies participating. Or need forunction this, you have to clean the kets of the distress distressed debt then you can restart these companies at lower debt levels. Always appreciate your time and analysis, thank you for providing both. Gerard cassidy of rbc Capital Markets. Coming up, we take a look at how the stock driven rally is being fueled by vaccine hype. We talk about the vaccine business next. This is bloomberg. Live from new york, i am alix steel. European close. The outperformance of europe as we head into the close. The u. S. Off the highs of the session, the nasdaq the under performer. This conversation and rotation of money flow into europe will sustain itself as we get towards friday and european leaders will need to talk about the european Recovery Fund. What does not materialize, is the Downside Risk to the market . Guy there is some, but i think there is a less pressing need to get this deal done now. It is unlike what is happening in the United States where the money runs out in short order. This is money that is going to go out the door next year, so if we dont get it done next week this week we can get it done next week or the week after. If there are signs of progress i think the train stays on the tracks. If things fall apart completely that is a different story. The narrative today is much more about what is happening with the vaccine story. This is the rotation into the most beaten up parts of the market, europe has a lot of that. You look at what is happening on both sides of the atlantic with Airline Stocks and regional banks getting a boost. I think this is a vaccine driven moment, rather than specifically a europe driven moment. If things completely fall apart, i take your point, i think it will get macro bloomberg strategist joining us now. One theory is the rotation is vaccine driven, another is that the rotation into europe because of the Recovery Fund and optimism they. How do you see this . Movement in price action is encouraging, if we look at the u. S. The russell 2000 is dominating while the nasdaq is on the back foot. In this instance it is premature to declare that as a sustained, cyclical upswing. I think it is dominated by optimism around the vaccine headlines, but ultimately given the headwinds in terms of a strong guy that didnt sound very good, did it . Alix it sounds like we might have some technical difficulties. I am not even working at home so i cant blame my kids. [laughter] you think this would be easier, wouldnt you . Certainly being on the phone would be easier. We will try to reconnect with laura later in the program. In the meantime we can approach this from a different angle. View ofdiscuss the eus how it obtains the necessary supply of things like remdesivir and the vaccine. We will speak to the Eu Commissioner of health and food safety very shortly. This is bloomberg. Guy i am guy johnson with alix steel in new york. This is the european close on bloomberg markets. The global push to develop a vaccine for coronavirus is accelerating with Companies Across the globe reporting positive developments. The eu is trying to hammer out a deal with iliad for its drug remdesivir. Joining us from brussels is eulla kyriakides, the commissioner for health and food safety. The Trump Administration has made great efforts to ensure the United States has first access to things like remdesivir and all the vaccines it has been investing in with its operation warp speed. If the u. S. Is going to be first, does that mean europe will be second . Stella let me just start by saying that, in the last few months we have seen that the eu is no longer the epicenter of the covid19 pandemic. We are seeing numbers globally lifting and since the of containment measures we are seeing similar local increases in some Member States. Its very important for us to be aware that none of us are safe until all of us are safe. We need to have a global approach in handling and fighting covid19, a global pandemic. Part of this is finding an in ative and safe vaccine timely time and also looking for Effective Therapeutics. The Eu Commission is leaving no stone unturned in terms of both addressing the issue of Effective Therapeutics for covid19, and in terms of supporting finding a vaccine. Alix has the European Commission made any purchase agreements with any Drug Companies as of now . Are two different scales i would like to touch on. First of all, you must be aware that a few weeks ago we presented the european strategy for vaccines. Our efforts are towards finding an effective and safe vaccine accessible for all as quickly as possible. Proceedingse, we are with all Member States on board, with ag with them number of companies to form advance purchase agreements to derisk the initial development of vaccines so that we can move as quickly as possible. Developing a vaccine takes 10 to theears, and through using european Emergency Support instrument, which is 2. 4 billion euros, we are going to be advanced purchasing from a number of companies in order to move as quickly as possible with the development and deployment of the vaccine. This is a process still in negotiation ongoing with Member States and members as well. I would like to touch upon therapeutics. ,reviously you mentioned gilead yes i have been in talks with gilead for a number of weeks now. I have said from the beginning that i will leave no stone unturned in terms of therapeutics and vaccines for covid19. As you may know, the European Medicine Agency and the commission gave authorization to julysivir on the third of in a very quick procedure showing the urgency that we see. We would be willing to also look on behalfrocurement of Member States, and there are about 16 Member States interested. At president we are and i am in discussions with gilead concerning Production Capacity and having a doses for the European UnionMember States. Commissioner, washington talks about ensuring the fact that u. S. Citizens will get to u. S. Scientific advances first. Will european citizens get access to european advances in science first . You talk about it being a global battle, which we all appreciate that it is, but will european therapeutics and european vaccines that are developed go to european citizens first . Let me say from the beginning that what has become very obvious in dealing with this pandemic is that we need to look at this in a way that is global and that there is solidarity. I have said before, nobody is safe and everybody is safe. Of course, we want to leave no stone unturned to help the development of safe and effective vaccines for eu citizens and also for working towards therapeutics. The president had launched the global event and raised over 16 billion euros so that we would have the ability to support countries outside of the European Union. We need to look at fighting this pandemic in this way. This is the only way we are going to be able to be effective. There is no country that can deal with this alone and we are committed to supporting research and innovation for therapeutics and the vaccine at all levels, looking outside europe as well. Global effort and that is very important for us all to understand. Aix we only have about minute left, but how many vaccine distributors or drugmakers do you feel like you will be making agreements with weather for a vaccine or for a treatment . We are in the middle of negotiations now, so i cant really give you those details. If i may, because we have a minute left, vaccines and therapeutics are crucial, but i want to touch on something else. Presented an action plan for the next three months. This is important because we need to understand that lifting containment measures, we need to have Member States and other countries have everything in place to where we have new cases of the virus and we are able to contain this as effectively as possible until we have found vaccines an effective vaccine and Effective Therapeutics. Andaim is to prevent contain. I think this level of preparedness needs to be global as well and communication for this is something which i consider crucial. Commissioner, thank you for your time today. Stella kyriakides the Eu Commissioner for health and food safety. The european closes coming up. This is bloomberg. Guy 30 seconds to go until the end of regular trading in europe. Lets talk about the session we have experienced. It has been positive, largely driven by the moderna story and the astrazeneca story which have repelled the travel and leisure sector up. The stoxx 600 up 1. 84 . You can see the point at which it is starting to happen midmorning into the afternoon. News that astrazeneca provided a second fill up to the rally we have seen. This is the head of the ecb tomorrow and the Council Meeting coming up on friday. In terms of the breakdown for the individual markets, this is what we are looking like. Youre are seeing the u. K. Stocks doing relatively well. Carnival trading strongly. Iag trading strongly. Ave outperformance little bit more earlier on. We have the ftse, the cac 40, and the dax all up 2 , lets call it. You can see the outperformance from the travel and leisure sector at the top end of the scale and you have names like ,ag, the owner British Airways carnival doing very well. It is trading up 10 . Ryanair, deutsche bank, lufthansa, Compass Group all trading stronger. Sector in europe is in positive territory. Lets talk about stock names. Astrazeneca one of them. That was certainly the you haveearlier a response that seems to have driven that stock higher. Atlantia is another story. Italyis been a huge in as the auto business where will go following the genoa collapse. It looks like it will now be nationalized and as a result atlantia up 25. 95 . Stop talk about the one that is trading the one stock trading up in the United States, that is apple. 14. 9 billion in a tax bill. Irelands finance minister Pascal Donahue s