And a lot of those stocks on fire. For some folks, that is all you need to move this market. Caroline it really does blow your mind. Taylor i will leave you here with three comments, not to cut you off, caroline. Jeffrey gold main and end cam partners are three analysts raising their prices on amazon. Almost a 2 trillion company can rise more than 5 on the day. Jeffreys, 3800 price target from goldman. Looking at 3350. Talking about the structural shift underway from these companies that are not just benefiting from a work from home environment, that is a permanent change that they see not going away. Caroline i take you or three, i raise you three. Im looking at morgan stanley, rbc, and socgen worrying about the complacency in the market. Looking toward the election we have in the u. S. , the risks as we get into august, september, and the turn we see in the market. Lets get the take from chief Investment Officer who is still with us. Is there complacency in this market . Brent maybe in some names, but not overall. You keep talking about the bifurcation of the market. I think it is. You have the names doing well. Perhaps that continues. How much do you pay for that . Versus the other names that are down, and quite frankly, hurting. I guess when i think about complacency, i dont think didnt think i would see that much cash in the sidelines. I would not see the bullish fromy sentiments coming the 20s. I think we had one in the 30s last week. I saw Fund Managers who respond to surveys that they are underweight for the most part. Im not for sure that there is the complacency some people believe. It has attracted people who believe the world will have forever changed. I dont think overall there is complacency. Romaine interesting. I want to give another thing. We were talking about the outperformance of tech stocks. How the gap between that best performing, and the worstperforming, that a gap, on the year to date, 60 percentage point difference. The widest gap we have seen going back to 1990. Brent, when you talk about the current environment we are in, the pandemic, the recession, we have a big Election Year this year, there are a lot of bets out there that we will see some sort of transformational change in our economy in some of our sectors. Do you think that type of transformation is in the cards here . Or should we maybe be to paying attention to some of the triedandtrue names that we would gravitate in these times . Brent i think the market has priced in the transformational change that is occurring. The economy is always adapting changing, without a doubt. It is different than a was 10, 15, 20 years ago. But you have to ask yourself, is that priced in or not . . I think that is priced in the opportunity said, if you believe the economy will continue to recover and at some point, we will get a vaccine or treatment, or just at some point, the virus will loosen its grip on the economy, i think the opportunity is in some of the sectors and industries that have been left behind. Typically coming out of recessions, those are the areas that do fairly well. I would expect this time would be no different. At some point, those cyclical Asset Classes and factors will begin to perform. I guess to me, it comes down to your time horizons. Is at the next two months or the next year . If it is toward the latter, you want to push toward those places in the market. Caroline always great to get your voice. Thank you for joining us. Northwestern mutual chief investment strategist, brent schutte. That does it for the closing bell. Whatd you miss . That will be joined that will be up next. This is bloomberg. Caroline from bloomberg world headquarters, im caroline hyde. Romaine this is whatd you miss . Caroline one big finish for the nasdaq. Another record high. Up 2. 5 . Technology once again outperformed after being the laggard of the previous week. There is a meeting marathon. The eu moves close to an economic stimulus package after orbiting holdout said they would yield. Leadership lies. Carlisle for about carlisle cofounder joining us with mike evans on how he sees the chinese ecommerce giant handling covid19 and the simmering tensions between the u. S. And china. All of that and more coming up. Romaine lets start off with more ibm earnings out. Shares moving higher in after hours. Two key revenue coming above estimates at 18. 1 2 billion. Operating eps coming in above. At 2. 18. That is above the estimate of 2. 12. All of this down from a year ago. I want to point out, the total cloud revenue increased 30 . 6. 3 billion in the quarter. The red hat acquisition contributed 1. 1 billion of that. Caroline all about hybrid cloud. Romaine yes. Taylor . Taylor lets do a hard pivot. Euro. Take a look at the we have been awaiting that news and details coming out of that eu stimulus package. We had the euro showing strength relative to a weaker dollar. Up to the highs that we have not seen since january of 2019. The euro trying to hold on to some of those gains. Paring back some of the earlier bigger gains we had seen. This is after we know the eu leaders twice pushed back resuming talks to seal the package. Youre getting more headlines trickling out that it could be looking like 750 billion in a euro stimulus package, half of which would be there in terms of grants. For more insight, we are joined foreather conley, Center Strategic and International StudiesSenior Vice President , for europe, eurasia, and the arctic. Great to have you. Walk us through the early reaction you have seen to what could be a good a big stimulus package, half of which looks like it will be grants relative to some low interest loans. Heather yeah, this has been an incredible four days of a lot of drama amongst 27 eu leaders. I think for me, they will get there. It has just been incredibly painful. And it is going to be howting to see if the it will implant impact the momentum asian of the recovery fund. Clearly for me, the take away is germany and france, the two largest eu economies, can no longer when they agree move the organization. Smallerly see the countries, when they are in coalition, countries that are frugal, they can bend the will of france and germany. This is why president macron was so angry throughout this entire conversation. They no longer can do this simply by themselves. What we are going to see is a smaller package, more heavily tilting to loans than previously. It bends to the frugal. I think we are seeing now where rebates, they will be paid off a little bit and higher rebates. The ultimate package looks like it will take away from the future of europe, reducing the digitalization, perhaps reducing some of the green agenda funds. At the end of the day, they will come out on this. The scars are deep. I dont think we are done with conditionality. Meaning that they are going to try to put markers on how the funds are implemented, and there is going to be a resistance from hungry hungary and from the italians in particular. Caroline what does that mean for the strength of the eu, and indeed, its binding together . Many have wrongly tried to predict the eu will not make it through whatever turbulent time. Now we move on to covid19 crisis. Well we still remain intact with italy and spain, greece, on board with countries such as the frugals, as you mentioned, the likes of the netherlands, austria, denmark, sweden . Heather what worries me, i dont bet against this project because it definitely showed us that it can sustain itself. What im worried about is the divergences. Economically, between the north and the south. You can see that in the German Response to the pandemic and the italian response. The germans are able to use their generous Budget Surplus into really spray down companies with state aid. Italy, spain, even france, they dont have the means to do that. If the south continues to struggle economically and the north can manage through this, they are not going to be able to bridge those economic caps. Then i just worry about the west versus the east. In this is all of hungary really becoming more liberal by the day. Poland, they will gladly take eu funds, but they are going to work against the eu in a variety of agendas. It is not going to fall apart but it is going to get more and more unwieldy. That is what we have seen over the past four days. They are having a difficult time papering over the divergences. Romaine so heather, that raises the question, where is this optimism coming from that somehow you would actually see a more unified European Union . For at least one that was a little bit more united by some sort of singular budget authority, that was sort of, i dont know, create a fiscal thread that ties these nations together . I guess you can draw that conclusion from this one deal, but once you get past this a deal, im not sure where that thread leads. Heather yeah, it has always been in the European Union 60 plus history that they have to sort of forge their institutions, their unity, only through crisis. The problem is over the last decade, they have had a crisis on top of crisis. It is really starting to strain the union. They will do what is necessary, they will reach the very minimum, and they will continue on. But as i said, what concerns me the most, what the United States , buying a strong europe u. S. Goods and services. And i just worry the european managing the recovery better than we are of cases, but the economics here this from not going to quite keep europe as strong as we would like. Wait until the next crisis, and there will be another one around corner, and they are having a harder and harder time meeting the minimum to get past this. Caroline what is so astounding about this potentially 750 billion euro package is the fact that for once, they are binding themselves more deeply when it comes to fiscal measures as well as just Monetary Policy measures. Is there any hope from that, and the fact that they might be able to start writing off each others debt . We might see some deeper integration coming out of this, even though it will be hardfought and scars yet to heal. Heather i did not see this moment as the socalled hamilton moment for europe. What i did see is europe using its ability to borrow, using the instruments it has at its disposal. Obviously using them in a much bigger, more powerful way. But i dont see, even though the germans have agreed it to this, i dont see this as a wholesale acceptance of debt mutual is asian. The true test of this, and i certainly do not wish this, will be if italy really starts to struggle financially and economically, or you have a government collapse and a new government comes in which will profoundly challenge italys use of the euro or how it is perceived as a member of the European Union. That is really the great test for this a debt mutual is asian challenge. Until they have that test, they will continue to find ways and patched together it is important to know they the european stabilization mechanism, the Italian Government will not use it because of conditionality. They have instruments, you cant lead a horse to water. The governments have to politically decide that they are able to accept the programs and instruments the European Union has provided them. I hope this is a better moment. Continuenk the battles and they will lurch from crisis to crisis. Caroline it certainly feels that way. Heather conley, spelling it out so eloquently of all the debts and disagreements that we continue to watch over the pond. We thank you. The vaccine shows promising signs. More breakdown and the results up next. This is bloomberg. Shows is thattudy the vaccine is safe and well tolerated. That was a very important goal of this study and that has been achieved. The second part is to make sure that there is a strong immune reaction and indeed, there is a strong immune reaction. And both parts of the immune system that need to be provoked, need to be kicked into action, have indeed been kicked into action. They are producing antibodies. And the other part is this t cell response, and that is also a very strongly provoked by this vaccine. So we are in a great position now to go forward into phase three. What happens in phase three . Studies,in phase three we need to make sure this vaccine can actually protect against infection. So we need to be doing the studies in places where there is a lot a virus around, so these phase three trials have been conducted in brazil, and south africa, as well as in the united kingdom. And the idea is that you take two groups of people, one group of people gets the vaccine, the other group gets the control, and then you see whether the vaccine has indeed protected people from the infection. There is a level of disappointment in the markets that it was up 10 as soon as the study was out. Now it is up 10 , now up 1. 2 . Were people expecting the trial to go better than it has . Richard well, to be really fair to astrazeneca, i do not think this study which was a phase one study, i dont think this study could have gone any better than it has grown. It showed exactly what we were hoping it would show. It stimulated the immune response. It couldnt do more than that. To have expected it to have done more than that would have been totally unreasonable. And now what we need are these phase three studies, and testing the vaccine and those people who are at greatest risk of covid19. People who are older, people who have chronic disease and so on. Lets just say phase three goes according to plan. What is the trajectory then . How soon could i get this in my arm . Richard ok. Disagreei can slightly with one of your previous commentators, the fastest vaccine that has been produced in recent times was actually for the zika virus. That vaccine was produced over the course of 18 months. We know we can do vaccines very, very quickly. Now, in this particular case, if we can get the phase three trials completed toward the end of this year, and if everything goes well, and then we can press the button forgetting production ramped up around the world, then we could have a vaccine, i would say, in the First Six Months of 2021. Richard, is is going to be the vaccine like the flu . Even if you have a vaccination against the flu, you can still catch it because there are various strains . Or could it be Something Like chickenpox where you get vaccinated and thats it, you are done, you never catch it again . Richard you are asking the 100 million question there. Right now, were six months into this pandemic. We didnt even know this virus existed six months ago. Right now, we dont actually know what are the determinants of protection. What are the determinants of immune protection . We dont know that. So we are still very much in the dark about what protects us. We dont know how long we are protected, we dont know to what extent we are protected. Wedont know how quickly might get reinfected with this virus. So there is a lot we still have to find out. I think we should be helpful, we should be optimistic, but we need to be a little cautious and we have to manage expectations of the public. Because there is still a long way to go. Romaine Richard Horton there, that is the medical journal laying out the details therefrom that Oxford Astrazeneca story. For more on that, we want to bring in Bloomberg Health care editor tim joining us to help us make a little bit of sense here of some of the timeline that we can expect. We heard horton say towards the end that we could potentially see a vaccine at the beginning of the First Six Months of 2021. I guess the question is when you look at what we have gotten out of this trial, the data we know so far out of this trial, are we putting a little too much optimism into the ability of getting this to market so soon . Tim that is a great question. And its a big question. I dont think there is an easy answer to it. Obviously, there is a number of candidates that are sort of in roughly the same phase of development now where you have drugs entering phase three, these largescale trials that are the most important hurdle to get over before getting to market. And you know, there are plenty of questions about the logistics of distributing these, who gets them first, how does it all work . There are worries obviously about vaccine skeptics and things like that. Think, with any reasonable timeline, i think early 2021, based on what we know now, sounds right. But there is always the possibility of something this complex that one small thing could come into play and change that timeline. Taylor how much of this is a zerosum game . Is it whoever gets the vaccine to market and gets it approve first, does everyone else and then stop working . Or can they too continue to work on their vaccine that could go out and be produced later on . How does it work when multiple players entering the space, and it seems to be relatively close horse race between moderna, pfizer, astrazeneca you name it . Tim i think there is probably room in the marketplace for whatever vaccine comes to market. This is obviously a thing where we are having to think about basically, you know, the global population needing a shot. Likely thats quite you could see a number of different vaccines come to market and different people, depending on where they are and where they are situated. They might get a fix a different vaccine then somebody else. Caroline tim annett, breaking it down for a spear thank you very much indeed. Lets get you up to speed with other headlines. Called their ubs office plans on hong kong. They reported a daily record of more than 100 new coronavirus cases. Theyve asked 70 of their stuff to work from home. Revived talks on a potential sale of its grocery unit. The potential multibilliondollar deal has been put on hold amid the coronavirus pandemic. Private equity firms in Lone Star Funds [indiscernible] mas will seekk evaluation when it goes public. The parent of chinas largest mobile payment come and he will pursue a jewel listing. One of the largest in years. This is one worth chatting. It is quite amazing. The fierce presence of that in not the u. S. , not only will they not list in the u. S. , but not push the product to the u. S. Doubling down in asia in particular. India and highland. Romaine you wonder if they dont really need the rest of the world, we are starting to see this bifurcation in a lot of these payment apps. We saw amex pull out of china. Maybe not pull out, but lessened its presence. This may just be the new world order we are in for. Taylor huge dual things b