Once again i say good morning to we have been full by randomness. The story of the french banks this morning is absolutely extraordinary. Francine the french banks, but actually hsbc also disappointed. That is why we are seeing a to thebit of weight banking stocks in europe. I know you want to start with your data tom. Volatility for august. Tom lets do the data check as we go into august. I like what kit juckes of socgen says. August has some risk to it, and we start out with a turn. The markets lower, but the nasdaq 100 trading abruptly higher in america. We will have to see how the tech stocks open. In the yield space, it is a jumble right now. Maybe Early Morning u. S. We are not there. As we see the churn in europe and such. The real news is the u. S. 10year inflationadjusted piece. 1. 01. It breached one on friday, or maybe it was thursday. That is a huge indicator of disinflation. Merrick and oil under 40 a barrel gets my attention american oil under 40 a barrel gets my attention. Francine foreignexchange is something we are looking out for because the dollar has achieved some of the gains. The pound also at 1. 30. I have not put in my data check but i need to shortly. European stocks are turning higher. We had positive economic data, but then we also have pessimism over the resurgence of covid19 cases. It is going to be an interesting week to see what the market focuses on, and then we have centralbank action later this week. Joining us now is marvin barth, barclays head of fx macro strategy. Thank you for giving us a bit of your time. What is the one thing that worries you most about the World Economy . Is it the rise of infection rates or that Central Banks may do less than expected . Marvin i think im more worried about the potential for the unexpected out there. If you look at the shock that we have seen, this is the largest economic shock in the last 220 years. Somewhere between the second and fourth largest in the last 220 years. The largest in the last 75 years. Shock, ao a Health Psychological shock. It is going to engender all sorts of surprising, unanticipated, nonlinear results, and that is not priced in the markets right now. Francine what will it take for that to be priced into markets, marvin . Marvin i think we are going to have to start to see some of those events develop. We are starting to see that on the political on the geopolitical front. You have seen it in the headlights, the increasing tensions between china and the u. S. , some of the issues about what our treasury prices really pricing in right now . Remember that that is the real yield that is actually that has actually dropped a level, breaking inflation has gone higher, implied and that, right . So you are talking that markets are looking for safety, that is why they are pricing such cheap yields. There always they are also worried about potential inflationary outcome. That is something we have seen that is something we have not seen in a long time. On i like the fts article the turkish lira, but that looks so idiosyncratic. The fact is that we are seeing loads of decent stationary disinflationary indicators, including the 10year tips in america. Our the Central Banks pricing in enough disinflation . So i think the Central Banks are doing everything that they can at this point. What you are, reflecting a bit in u. S. Treasuries is, remember that part of that deal reflects a safety premium, right . That people are looking for something to compensate them selves for the uncertainty they face elsewhere. What could be more certain in the world than coupon payments from the u. S. Treasuries security . Whatever questions you have about that, that is one of the most certain things out there right now, and that is why it is commanding such a premium. I would not read so much into that, about disinflation or economic outcomes. I would read into that some level of fear and concern over the lack of certainty in the world. Tom this explains right now s massive dollarweek bank dollarweak. Are you looking for a resilient dollar, some mix there, or can you get up on the weak dollar call . Myvin from what understanding is, there are a lot of people who have decided that there is this weak dollar trend that has developed. I would say that is not the case. What we are seeing right now is that the dollar came off of its liquidity demand highs. We have also seen some really positive news come out of europe in terms of a Movement Toward they have a long way to go, folks, so we are not there yet. We have also done more to suggest that there are some thingsed all those start to play into eurodollar which has led to a somewhat weaker dollar, but ultimately in the background, we have to remember, the u. S. Economy is still doing better than most other economies in the world. Safe still the global haven, and so it is really hard for me to see a trend of dollar weakness. Francine what do you do with gold right now, marvin . Marvin so i think gold is actually attractive. It is one of the reasons why we have seen such a move there recently. One is, remember that gold is effectively like a perpetual bond, so it should not pay at the real interest rate. Tomsms point, to point, gold should pay the same price, but price has to rise. That is what we have seen there. There is all so an element of dollar weakness. Another thing is that that uncertainty in the u. S. , even though u. S. Treasuries look safer than other government bonds in the world, the fact is we all have questions at this end about how Central Banks are going to be able to handle all this. That goes backs to that goes back to toms question. That means you should diversify into other safe assets. Francine when you look at the big question about dollar reserve currency state, will it come under erosion as time goes by . Marvin so this is think the most interesting question out there, francine. I mean, the first thing is, i have been dealing with this question for 20 years. First of all when the euro came on board, then it was the rise of china, then it was donald trump is going to undermine all this. And what did we see back in march . In march when people were really truly scared, the only thing people wanted to hold, what it up versus gold, versus bullion, versus everything u. S. Treasuries, right . Is a disputed it safe haven and currency. But i do worry as we go forward, when you look at the deaths coming up in the United States come when you look at the political factions coming up in the United States, how that could affect policy, that i think there is an increased risk of the dollar losing that in the future. But of course the problem is, there is no clear alternative. Until europe actually does solve its fiscal union problems, it cannot be a true reserve currency. Tom marvin, if i look at the vector of yields right now, including the twoyear yield moments ago going to its new recent yield,. 1053, two the Central Banks have the ability to control the current yield market or to control the price of notes . Marvin as we have seen with eurocurb control in japan and is within australia, there certainly the capacity to do so as long as they are credible. As long as the markets believe they are credibly pursuing their inflation targets, and that they have the capacity to do this, then, yes, they can set those. I think the real concern, what i talked about at the beginning, we have to worry about all the unexpected things that we never imagined possible. One of them is, what if Central Banks lose their credibility around the issue . What is the massive amount of debt what if the massive amount of debt causes people to question monetization . At that point Central Banks are going to have problems. We are not there yet, and i dont see that passing with any specific Central Banks right now, other than as you say, like turkey, but it is something we should be keeping in the back of our minds. This is not crazy talk at this point. Francine thank you so much, marvin barth of barclays stays with us. Lets get to bloomberg first word news in new york city with ritika gupta. Ritika microsoft is trying to salvage a deal to buy the u. S. Operations of tiktok. The ceo spoke to President Trump about how secure the the president had floated the idea of outright banning tiktok. On security grounds. Now the white house has given the company 45 days to hash out the deal. Coronavirusom a new relief bill, republicans have proposed a temporary section all of the jobs benefit that expired last week. Nancy pelosi says republicans are condescending when they say that the payments are too high and should be scaled back. According to the sunday times, a london wide lockdown is being considered in case coronavirus cases continue to spike. Restrictions imposed in northwest england shows that the government will act when and where necessary. Trial as completed a spacexn to earth as the Dragon Castle dragon capsule has splashed down. First manneds mission into space. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more im ritikauntries, gupta. This is bloomberg. Francine . Tom . Tom coming up a timely conversation in the 8 00 hour. Mr. Kaplan of the dallas fed. There is so whats going on, including the markets telling the fed what to do, this new lower weight regime that we see. Robert kaplan in the 8 00 hour. This is bloomberg. Good morning. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. The jobs report way out there. At the end of the week. It seems a million miles away. Kaplan coming up from the dallas fed in a few hours. Arvind barth from barclays joining us. I want to tie in on something that last week i think we really underplayed, and that is emerging markets, fiscal and fx dynamics. We know the argentinian story. I think people have a good grasp of turkey unraveling, but as a general statement, what is the knockon effect of a developed economy slow down on e. M. . There isell, i think actually several Different Things going on here, tom. We talked about it before, this idea that actually with the advent of increasing automation and ai, we start to see over the last decade globalization unwind and production move back to advanced economies because it is actually cheaper to use robots than it is to use humans. That was already undermining emerging market growth. Now they get hit by covid, and the fact that you have slower demand growth in advanced economies come as you mentioned, and on top of that, they like everybody else has taken out all this debt, and this is increasingly raising the risks for emerging markets. Tom i look at the risks of e. M. , and i thought prichards nailed it in this piece in the telegraph, this confusion of liquidity with solvency, to me that is the story of august. Lets discuss that right now. Give us your sense of e. M. Liquidity versus e. M. Solvency. Marvin yeah, i think the distinction is really important there. So what we are seeing is that as markets have normalized, as Balance Sheets have normalized after the shock we meant through in march and april, there is a lot more liquidity we went through in march and april, there is a lot more liquidity, and i think especially with low yields in advanced economies, there is this sirens call of, well, should i go with these higher yields of e. M. . The irony is you are not really talking about that much. Brazil at 2 . Whats that . In the background, as i just noted, the Growth Prospects have gotten significantly worse, and they have taken on a lot more debt. And so if you look, there are several countries in latin america, the countries that you mentioned in terms of turkey, south africa is another when, where if you look at the savings and investment dynamics, these are countries that are not on sustainable savings paths. They are going to have to either cut back spending and consumption radically at some point, or they are going to have to run into some sort of debt problems. Your take, marvin, on india francine what is your take, marvin come on india . Marvin india looks better here. They have a high amount of fiscal debt, that they also have a relatively closed system protocol. Second of all, they their overall level of indebtedness at the private sector is less. If you look at the country balance sheet, they are less of a savings deficiency then you would say as south africa. India action looks like one of the better places to invest in the emerging markets from our perspective right now. Francine marvin, when you look at the dollar dynamic, how much of these emerging markets will actually suffer significantly in the next two months . Well, this is a really interesting thing. I know that you and tom, especially tom, have been around long enough to remember that it is often the case that in august and september, that is when we start to get things really happening. July is the month when everything calms down, where we have low volatility, and then it starts to explode. So i think, you know, it is always hard to create when you are going to get one of these questions. You cannot get the timing exactly right, what we do know that all the kindling is there. More growth conditions, lots of debt, potential policy issues. Lots of potential for risk events globally, whether it is geopolitical or otherwise. And we have an environment where this could blow up. This does look like exactly the time when we start to see it. There is a much greater rise inod of a volatility, particularly in e. M. , and the next couple of months. Tom marvin barth with barclays. We have a lot of a real mixture of conversations on the politics of the moment, and of course on investment and finance. But it is about a recalibration of economics. Over the weekend, the ideas of getting to september, getting to october in this pandemic everyone is readjusting. We speak with ken for man of citigroup in the 8 00 hour. Stay with us. Worldwide, this is bloomberg. Ritika this is bloomberg surveillance. Lets get the Bloomberg Business flash. The japanese owner of 7eleven Convenience Stores has agreed to by speedway gas stations for 21 billion. 7eleven is hoping and expanded footprint will continue growth in the midst of the u. S. Pandemic. It is the biggest medical acquisition of the year. Systemsarian medical for 16. 4 billion dollars in cash. That recommend that reference the 24 billion premium of the clothing price. That eruptss largest lender Second Quarter seven fell more than times Corporate Banking businesses. That is the Bloomberg Business flash. Tom . Francine . Tom thanks so much. Equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. Futuresgreen, fractionally lower, but nasdaq 100 goes the other way. Fairly green to say the least. Higher yields can be identified, but when you go short and particularly when you go inflation or disinflation adjusted, it is remarked that the u. S. 10year tip, a 1. 015. That is more negative than it was on friday. You see oil breaking down above 40 there. 39. 77exas intermediate, as well. Francine . Francine there are two stocks that we need to watch, hsbc warning that low losses loan also extending a losing streak, a surprising 1. 5 billion dollar loss, impacting the european banking stocks. Overall, european stocks are turning higher. We had betterthanexpected economic data, but we also had a resurgence of covid19 cases. Coming up, we talk tiktok and tech stocks. We speak with David Kirkpatrick, the company chief executive officer. This is bloomberg. President trump has said enough and we are going to fix it. We will take action with respect to a broad array of National Security risks that are presented, but it is also connected to the Chinese Communist party. Tom the secretary of state on something that is decidedly bipartisan, which is great distrust of the chinese. We begin incredibly strong this not on theing with politics on the state apart and the state department, not even on the financials, but on the concept of this new social medium and where tiktok fits in. There is no one better than David Kirkpatrick with techonomy. His book the facebook effect was the definitive book on social for a generation. Sometimeffect late this year. David, what is the tiktok effect . David thank you, tom. Actually, one element of the tiktok effect is that facebook is facing competition that is more aggressive and effective than it has in perhaps a generation. Effect is also one of making american political leaders deeply nervous because a chinese application has basically penetrated the bedrooms and telephones of more or less all american teenagers. There is a number of other elements to it, but it is a andty fascinating story going rapidly into the political realm. Tom so going after facebook, are we going to see other vendors, other parties, coming in here to take over the tiktok effect with microsoft . Do you expect other bidders . David that is a good question. I think it makes sense that others would be interested, but one of the things that, depending on how expensive tiktok terms out to be, which is hard to know, they say it is 15 billion. Lets just throw out a number that people have been speculating. Buyainly facebook could not it under these circumstances, having the hearings just the other day, clearly being targeted for antitrust, anticompetitive the behavior. Consolidation was another player not in the cards right now. Probably the same is true of google. I think if apple wanted it, they could pay it, but apple has never done well with social. They really probably dont even need it in some way. Why microsoft . That is an interesting question. I thing microsoft is a smart bitter, a Smart Company to want it. I think there is growth is a bidder, a Smart Company to what it. I think there is growth potential. Francine if you look at who owns tiktok right now, a high number of countries have said they do not want their employees to use it. What happens if the Company Gets Bought by microsoft . Does the risk go away, or is it something we should be thinking about . David i think in time, microsoft could completely turned it into an american operation. They