Workhorse, variant medical. Nikola was up. Update. , we will get an a lot going on today. The x fl. Uying taylor i wanted to talk about what was moving higher. Romaine tiktok . Did we use to own tiktok . Caroline different tictoc. Ralor carolines downloads buy signal. I want to get more thoughts hear from kristin bitterly. Curious how you are thinking about volatility. I have heard some different comments today. That we will get out and then maybe get back in the market on a relief rally after the election. Others are saying they are going to stick through it. How are you thinking about volatility, particularly around some of the election risks. Thesejust goes back to anchoring biases that we have. The 20s. In we think of the average historical norm, it is probably between like 1518. Over the past couple of years, obviously, we have seen historic low levels. Then historic alltime in the 1980s. In the 80s. Tohink the opportunity is hedge your shortterm risk. We want people to remain invested. If you are pulling out and go to cash, there is no return on that as an asset. Taking advantage of this collapse in volatility that, given the risks on the horizon, whether it is the rising tensions between the u. S. And china, whether it is rising cases, are all risks that you can hedge against. For premiums that are relatively inexpensive relative to what you could have gotten a couple of months ago. Build in some of this downside action and take advantage with cheaper volatility. Romaine when you look out on that volatility, you do see more activity surrounding the election and even a little bit beyond that based on concerns of how policy may or may not change. Does that give you any concern that we could be in for a lot of repositioning amongst people trying to decide the future of u. S. Policy. Yes. I think the way to hedge that, when i am talking about hedging shortterm risk, it is really for the next month. Understanding, if there is a change in regime, what could that mean. The we look out in terms of term structure of volatility, one of the strategies that i should clarify, when we are talking about buying some downside protection, we are not talking about buying it all the way down to zero. One of the strategies we like is basically hedging yourself down 10 and building in almost like 10 tor zone from down down 30 . You are willing to take a little bit of risk. But understanding that if the markets really did experience extreme volatility, you would be able to monetize that. Pullback, ie that think a lot of people are of the belief that there is a technical dip and we will buy that depth. Taking advantage of some of that term structure that you mentioned. Caroline news you can use, folks. Thank you. As always. Lets give you some breaking news. Maker,os the game raising outlook for 2021. It is boosting its forecast, First Quarter adjusted earningspershare, and expected revenue. Adjustedirst quarter per share, 2. 30. A big beat. Romaine we should point out, the shares are still halted. You are a big Red Dead Redemption fan, arent you, taylor . Taylor that is what i am doing in my free time. You know what else . Watching shares of Virgin Galactic. They are showing again revenue that comes in. Our headlines are showing zero. Net loss of 63 million compared to a loss of 60 million in the First Quarter. Keep sifting through this headline to figure out what is going on as shares kind of fluctuate. I amine the ceo saying, thrilled to be leading Virgin Galactic. This is back to a certain extent of a company folding into another. Earnings totally loss of 54 million compared to a loss of 63 in 2020. That does it to does it for the closing bell. Whatd you miss . Is up next. Is to lapping up . Where is talapia. This is bloomberg. Bloombergs World Headquarters in new york, i am caroline hyde. Whatd you miss is another record for the nasdaq. Money piling into Technology Stocks overall. The market continuing in this risk on feel as some economic dataame in economic came in better than expected. President trump says he is looking into the possibility of a second order for stimulus. President trump threatens to ban the chinese backed app tiktok. First, looking at earnings. Of grandtion in terms theft auto really helping to push take two stocks higher. Everyone is at home using these games. Nba basketball franchise also doing particularly well. Taylor shares of version galactic. , zeroe is unchanged dollars. But they are posting a loss in the Second Quarter was slightly more than the First Quarter. Loss per share of about . 30. They do say that they were they entered a deposit agreement for orbital spaceflights with 12 customers. I made another chart for both of you. This one comes from Neel Kashkari, the head of the Federal Reserve at the bank of minneapolis. Said thateekend, he the u. S. Savings rate means that the country can afford to support americans laid off during the coronavirus pandemic. What that means is that we dont need to borrow abroad to help finance some of this additional stimulus. He seems to believe that the stimulus and savings rate is enough. In the director of the bar College Economics program. Professor, it is really interesting, some of the comments you got over the weekend saying that we can afford more stimulus. What is your take for more stimulus at this moment . I think the case is strong. The fundamentals are not very good and i think things will get worse rather than better. I found it interesting that Neel Kashkari was saying that savings was what we need to go forward with when just a few months ago he argued the Federal Reserve prints the money, congress has told us to do it, and when we need to pass stimulus or budgets of any kind, we have the financial resources. It means that people are cautious. Maybe they are able to pay bills. Means lesss rate spending. We need to find those incentives to spend. Romaine there is sort of a fear here that congress and other policymakers will enter this realm of complacency. You get decent data out of ism numbers, maybe the payroll numbers. I guess the concern here, the argument seems to be that if we do get the kind of recovery a lot of people are expecting, you dont need to put a ton of stimulus into the system right now. The risk is that if you dont have that recovery as expected, the downturn comes longer. Aulina we were talking about vshaped recovery and it is nowhere to be found. We are still at very elevated levels. Right now, we are debating whether congress should renew the stimulus. What that debate is about is removing consistency work. Even though the avalanche of job ongoing, we did not see major defaults. People were able to meet their ongoing financial commitments. Now, remove that. We wont get the same kind of support and still businesses are andering loss of sales profits. It does not really give us a true indication of the health of the economy because the longer we stay with loss of sales, higher unemployment, the harder it is to recover. Caroline give us your perfect formula. Obviously, this is a stressful time. We know that policymaking has not been perfect, particularly in the eye of the storm in march. Paulina there are no Perfect Solutions here because we have a Public Health crisis that has not been brought under control. The principles that remain are the same principles as we discussed in march. We still need to mobilize, mobilize, mobilize. There are Public Health concerns that the government needs to address, including providing assistance to states. They are feeling the financial strain and they will do more layoffs. We do need to support small businesses, educational institutions, and people. We do see elevated levels of food and housing insecurity. It means not just more economic pain, but it might mean defaults, evictions, bankruptcies, that we did not see. For me, another round of general stimulus is a nobrainer, but that is the minimum we can do. Theome point, when we see fire put out, we need to figure out how to rebuild it, then we need the federal government to step in. Appreciate your thoughts, always appreciate your insights. Associate professor of economics and the director of the Economics Program at bard college. Reserve bankl president Robert Kaplan weighed in, and exclusive interview. It is still our view that we will contract for the year at about 4. 5 to 5 . It has been our view after a very sharp decline in the Second Quarter. Rebound in the third and Fourth Quarter is more muted in the United States. It has caused me to think that the Unemployment Rate, if we dont do a better job managing the virus, the Unemployment Rate is likely to be between 9 and 10 . We have moved up our unemployment forecast. I think we have got a rebound but it is much more muted than it was. If we dont do a better job managing the virus, we will have lower growth and a higher Unemployment Rate. Unemploymentxtra bonus and eviction moratorium, they are gone for now. Wave ofe expect a defaults that might affect credit markets . We have looked at it. Is of the things that unusual about this downturn is that incomes is relatively solid, and one of the reasons is the unemployment benefits. Normally in a downturn, you see a drop of incomes. It is still my view that in some extensionill get an in unemployment benefits. I am hopeful that will continue. If it did not, you will see a further weakening in the economy. Any Business People telling you that 600 bonus was keeping people from coming back to the labor force . People werebusiness telling me that. They were telling me that it was challenging to hire people. We have looked at a number of studies. We dont see it as much in the data but i am hearing it from Business People. , itever the right answer is think he still are going to need to see extension of unemployment. It may be restructured but i think it is important that we see an extension of it. And while it may have made it hard for certain individual businesses to hire, it helped create jobs because it helped ulster consumer spending. A number of your colleagues, joined by Neel Kashkari, say we nationwider probably lockdown for about four weeks to defeat the virus. I probably have a somewhat different view based on my conversations with epidemiologists locally and through the country. The epidemiologists i have spoken with believe that we can manage this economy and the virus and have the economy open if all of us wore masks. That is first and foremost. Then we need a good testing and Contact Tracing regime. If we all wore masks, they believe it would substantially mute the transmission of the virus, you would not have to do widespread lockdown. That, if youfear did more lockdowns, if you still did not have good following of the virus particles, than the lockdown would be wasted. I think their advice, be very careful about the reopening, enforce a widespread practice of wearing masks, social distancing. Caroline from new york, this is bloomberg. Taylor with the massive amount of stimulus during the pandemic, there is a renewed focus on debt to gdp ratio. Gdpnow forecasting debt to to hit 120 by 2024. They say in the u. S. , debt to gdp will be 130 by 2021. We are joined to discuss the key onvers behind the outlook friday. It seems like the stimulus spending was that final thing you had to see. First of all, thank you for having me on. With the u. S. , we have been making two points consistently for 10 years now. One is that u. S. Debt is on a longterm unsustainable trend. Another is that the u. S. Has higher debt tolerance than other countries. Now, we are facing a big jump in public debt in the u. S. We think that potentially worsens the outlook. We are not saying do this, dont do them. We are not giving policy advice. We are just saying how we see it given the very changed forecast that we now have. A lot of what you guys wrote in your report is something that we have heard from monetary policymakers here in the u. S. However, the market response overall has been recently to continued has been a sickly y a decisionbasicall to buy debt. There are a lot of people around the world who are perfectly willing to hold u. S. Government debt. I think that speaks very much to u. S. Dollar currency status. It means that Central Banks around the world, other private investors are willing to hold u. S. Debt. Stillt, u. S. Debt is yielding a positive nominal return. Stillollar accounts for 62 of Global Foreign Exchange reserves. Global at the dollars importance around the world, if you are looking at trade invoicing, fx transactions, the u. S. Dollar is still the most important currency. Fedpolicy response by the underlines just how important the dollars. Usoline charles, what takes to a cutting in the aaa . Is it more than a trillion in terms of stimulus . Charles this is a longerterm outlook we normally keep on for two years. My would guess we dont look at this again until 2021. But of course we could look at it at any time. We are looking at longerterm trends, i think. What Interest Rates are doing, what debt and mx debt dynamics look like. Clue the, low Interest Rates are a key variable. That does make the debt sustainable in the short to medium run. Caroline keeping a close eye on the risk to u. S. Economic dynamism and the reserve currency. This is bloomberg. Romaine quick earnings recap. Will start out with aig. Coming in at 674 million. That included covid19 related losses of 419 million. About 7. 9 billion dollar loss for the quarter. Caroline grand theft auto and up nba basketball franchise, after hours as it manages to beat on all fronts. Taylor Virgin Galactic all over the place. 7 whenly, they were up they said Richard Bransons first test flight would be in 2021. But now shares falling as they are looking to do a Stock Offering. Romaine we want to pivot from that to the latest issue of the bloomberg market magazine. A phenomenal cover. When you open up that cover, it is all about diversity. You get all of these voices. Article primarily about diversity. Got their experiences about what it is to be on wall street. Sonali bostick is joining us now. You interviewed several people in that story. Thank you for joining us. We had so many different perspectives here on wall street. One of them surprised me in that, could wall street be a more attractive place to work in the future for more people of color . I do think that there is an opportunity for wall street to embrace diversity. One of the reasons why i think there is room for growth is because, as you highlighted in the article, so many us have gone there with the hope of achieving success to then deal with the harsh reality of not being able to reach the levels we are seeing our white counterparts reach. When i came out of college, my goal was to achieve the american dream. Pursuing anat in the finance field was my ticket to achieving a certain level of success. But i encountered some issues that held me back. Which is why opened up my own ria, harris and harris wealth management. , when youaneilia start off in this industry, you find yourself maybe is the only person of color in the room, not being taken as seriously as you are white counterparts as your white counterparts. Ofsay, i will leave instead trying to get to the top in that space. Zaneilia i am pretty outspoken. When you take the approach of, ok, is this a battle that i want to forge ahead and address a situation that occurs in a certain way. When you go back and forth in your head as to, i am going to take this approach and i am going to take it to a higher level, or management, to see if it can be addressed. Receive ao, if you lot of pushback or dismissal of what you are experiencing, after a while, you think, why not continue pushing forward . You want to, again, succeed. But when you receive pushback or dismissal order mile dismissal or denial on what you are experiencing. That is why many people have made the decision, that is not the path for me at this particular organization and they look for opportunities elsewhere or start their own. Caroline you did start your own. What would it have taken for you to stay . The voices coming from wall street at the moment for change, do you think it is authentic . In alia i live predominately black community. When i look around, i dont see representation from all street wall street there. They have come into my community. They did not stay long. They did not work within the community. And they left. I wanted to serve my community. I wanted to be active in my community. Builtwanted to see wealth in my community. So, do i feel that what i am hearing from wall street and right now amongst companies, whether they want to support us, help elevate us so that we can , whate a level of success would make that authentic for me leveling at the executive , people of color represented. 500e know, the Fortune Companies have no black women as ceos. One of the things i have heard over the years, there is not a pipeline. In my community, i see a plethora of highly educated africanamericans who are whous, were resilient are resilient, who want to make the difference. There is a pipeline. That is number one. I want to hate on that pipeline issue for a second. How do firms start to look outside of the schools they usually recruit from . Do you have any advice of how they can get out of their habits of going to the same place over and over. Zaneilia i graduated from an historically black university, so that is one place. People transitioning into other opportunities. Aisleways feel like we always go back to getting people out of college. At the executive level. How about only people from other industries that have the leadership skills that can be transitioned easily . I think it needs to be a twofold recruitment not just from