Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20240712 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance July 12, 2024

Days, ottis days yesterday that i saw, and all i can say is still cant find an entry point on tesla. I want to get into tesla but maybe it is down another 20 . Francine it is still off from the start of the year. Lets get to first word news in new york city with ritika gupta. A e it is a socalled skinny proposal. To break the logjam with democrats in the house. The bill will cost up to 700 billion, a far cry from the democrats 2. 2 trillion dollar belief package. Once again coming u. S. Infectious disease chief Anthony Fauci is counting something President Trump has said. A vaccine is unlikely for coronavirus will be available by election day. President trump has hinted that a vaccine will be ready by then. In the u. K. , Prime Minister Boris Johnson will than all social gatherings of people more than six people, a surgeon coronavirus cases to 3000 is prompting him to act. People getting together for work, weddings, and funerals. Bond market guru Jeffrey Gundlach says highyield debt default rates will double the managing of says the fed policy actions are distorting asset values. His views reflect broad skepticism about the markets connection to economic realities. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more im ritikauntries, gupta. This is bloomberg. Tom thank you so much. Equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. They were this mornings stabilization after the emotion a word this morning stabilization that we saw. To 31. 28 with stability in the bond market. Im going to call in yields in a basis point,. 67. Dollar ever stronger we will talk to john normand about that in a moment. I really want to look at the aggregate demand seen in oil with west texas. 37. 28 as well. A. M. Olt survey at 10 00 could possibly be jolting francine yeah, jolting. U. S. Equity futures rising as well. There is more optimism than yesterday after that big tumble we saw, treasuries and dollar erasing their increase. What im looking at, tom, extensively come is the pound headed for the longest declining streak its march on where is that talks could collapse over changes to the brexit withdrawal deal, and that is something that kit juckes is writing about today, what we are seeing and pound will also have an effect on euro unger term. Tom there are a lot of different opinions over the last two or three days on these odd markets, always of interest, the opportunity there of a correction in the nasdaq, down 11 to see the dow down 6 . For a while, stability across assets. Joining us, john normand with j. P. Morgan. He has been a frequent guest, giving us a wonderful crosssection. His hyper Detailed Research notes at the pro level. We will try to get them into english over the next 15 minutes. John, in english, how did you adapt and adjust to what we have seen the last few days . John in the last few days, it has been a bit of a surprise in terms of the timing of the move down in tech stocks. This something we have been flagging as a valuation problem for a while. In terms of the catalyst for it, they have not been the headline grabbing catalyst you would normally expect in tech stocks, but to be the kind of thing that would deflate tech stocks would be big news on the regular tory front, significant breakthroughs on the vaccine front, and that has not been the news flow over the past few days. It sort of recognizes that there has been a valuation problem in that sector for a while, and specific names, a very large valuation issue. Tom there is this thing called profit taking. There is also this thing called loss taking, and some of that has do with reversion to a mean mean. How important is reversion to the mean, whether in equities or foreignexchange . John i think this reversion to the mean concept is incredibly fuzzy in the current environment. If you have a structural change in the demand for certain assets like tech stocks, because of households or businesses maturing against covid19 or the next virus, then you cannot rely on the old mean as an anchor, so this is why i always put more emphasis on catalysts, what would be the required policy development or cyclical deponent to get these markets to move lower, even if we dont know cyclical or developments to get these markets to move lower. Francine is that for correction . I dont know whether it needs to correct further. We have a billion piece saying if you look at corrections and what it means for the market, it is pretty fuzzy because tesla certainly is testing the lexicon when it comes to corrections. John i dont think it is possible to be precise the round precise read what the correction is. The sort of demand of firemen for the products, but also it is incredibly difficult to measure the amount of speculative demand that went into particular names. Most of this activity was probably concentrated in august. There are looks at charts and you can see that the august move has been reversed mostly. Most of this move is over. Francine what happens from now until the end of the year . I volatility are you expecting . John i think you will see a decent amount of volatility. Unfortunately, you have a conversion that a convergence of a couple of types of risk. One, and a lot of clients are bracing for a downshift in global growth, a natural consequence of a period of pentup demand, something that gets spent. But the others are a range of policy risks, whether it is u. S. Elections, hard brexit, and will there be a breakthrough over the next couple of months or will there not be. I think the markets will move in a range. I dont think it is the end of the bull marketing equities or credit. Thee will be a rotation in markets, particularly eem, but in the next couple of months the markets are likely to move nowhere. Tom i want to point out turkish lira, 7. 49, new weakness as of four hours ago. John normand, please give us your view on the weak dollar certitude, the weak dollar crew has been absolutely crushed in the last three or four days, when im going to call dollar stability dxy, out to 93. 59. Reaffirm for us your belief in dollar direction. John my view on dollar direction is very specific. I think the dollar is going down versus the yen and euro and gold over the next year or so. I think it is going down versus the higher yield and emergingmarket currencies like mexico and russia. It will also go down versus the asian currencies taiwan, korea. This is all dependent on some sort of seen breakthrough in the next few months, and that is why i think the cycle is going to extend, thats why there will be theseemand for currencies. It will not be acrosstheboard dollar selloff because you have a lot of specific weaknesses and em that clients do not want to own after a recession. Tom south africa or turkey as well. , a bidenhrough the why weakdency initiating a dollar policy. Give us an idea of what a biden presidency would do to the dollar. John to me, it is not about a specific policy followed by the u. S. Treasury, it is about a less combative, less impulsive Foreign Policy. If Foreign Policy is neutralized , there is going to be a demand for nondollar assets or the assets of higher growth regions, higher yielding currencies like mexico or russia. It is more about getting the president and the treasury out of the picture in terms of influencing Financial Markets, which is mostly what you get under biden, as opposed to another four years of trump, where there is the likelihood of geopolitical tensions, much higher. Those tensions have tended to be dollar positive because they put stress on nonu. S. Emergingmarket economies. What happens to euro in this kind of environment . Is the euro do a correction . John i think the euro could trade down two cents or three cents over the next few months because the virus is still picking up in europe. It is to be seen whether the european macro data start to roll over broadly as a result of the virus pickup, and in an environment where clients seem euros,roadly long on that is an unstable situation. At the broader message around the euro is that it is a much Higher Quality reserve asset than it was just six months ago. It has always been a reasonably high quality asset. There has been a sovereign risk issue that has been laid to rest for the next couple of years because of the european recovery fund. The ongoing structural demand for euros that is not the kind of demand could it get you a few cents above 1. 20 . I think so. Is this a buy and hold asset . I dont think so as much as the dollar, the gold price, but i would rather be long the euro over the next several months rather than short the euro. Francine john, thanks so much. John normand of j. P. Morgan stays with us. Mcgough, we speak with mike wilson. Jonathan ferro will bring you that interview. This is bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. Tom and francine from london and new york. We were talking with john normand about weaker dollar, and, john, thank you for still being with us. We were also talking about what impacted biden presidency would have on trade and therefore on the currency. Where else do you see that change . If we have a democratic president , after november 3, taking office in january, what does that mean for Technology Stocks . Are there sectors that will do better out of it . John i think the call on sectors is depended on which way the senate goes. If the senate goes democratic and an is backed by a democratic congress, that gives you extremely high odds of not only more fiscal spending but tax increases. The beneficiaries will certainly be related to infrastructure. I think it would be those things related to industrials because of a less confrontational trade policy. You could have consumer stocks from a higher minimum wage. I think technology i put technology to the side of this discussion because it doesnt seem like to me a biden agenda against tech is any stronger than the trump agenda. Think there is a bias against conservatives in the tech sector, but neither one of these individuals, biden or trump come is talking about breaking up the sector. It doesnt seem like there is an existential risk around if biden or trump were president , so i think that is why tech could be a bit of a sideshow for the next administration. It is about trade policy for the sectors, also fiscal policy and what that means for infrastructure. And probably health care because you have a bit of a divided congress or maybe even a sweep that doesnt have grand aims for that sectorth care, is carried at a risk premium. Francine john, the fed chair, jay powell, surprised many to aners by shifting average inflation targeting. Are you going to see that around the world . Are more central bankers going to follow suit . Don it seems like john it seems like you have these policy reviews in place, the ecb, there is this expectation that there is Something Different from policies over the past several years, but really, what really matters is whether that change in policy or that change in mandate or target is backed with a change in operating policies. The increase in pace of the Balance Sheet expansion or a change in the rate of assets. The answer to these questions is no, no, and no, then i think there is a more consequence more consequential change for markets. With this policy review, they sort of prereleased it at jackson hole and we may get more detailed at the september policy meeting. But with the change in Balance Sheet policy, i dont think there is any stimulate of impact , and i dont think it matters for Financial Markets over the next year. Tom it is certainly something i am guilty of not paying enough attention to, that is supply coming to market. With all this debt buildup, what is the j. P. Morgan view, in your view come on how supply will be disruptive in facing full credit debt echo john in facing full credit debt . Supply is disruptive in 8 i think there tends to be demand, because strangely the levels, people see value if you think policy rates can be at zero for the next five years or maybe more. So that is why it is possible to have extraordinary issuance of extraordinary low yield. Not a sovereign credit issue as well if you is playing. Of the bigger emerging markets which dont quite have as much experience managing the programs, so Bond Investors may not give the benefit of the doubt to Central Banks in brazil or south africa, which are monetizing some of the national debt. Tom that frontier economy known as the United States of america, what is the issuance of all those billions of dollars of debt going to do . John i think the move into the income sector can driver recovery. Some of these issues will of this credibility will erode over time, but i dont think it is the environment that gives you a dollar crisis. I think for that, another predictable contender for reserve currency status, euro is the closest, but i still dont think there is enough faith in the longterm issues around how european policy is managed to drive a wholesale reallocation into the euro. So i think the u. S. Has a decent amount of time to sort of dominate the currency role. Francine what is a decent about of time, john . Is it five years . Is it longer, or shorter . John i think it is going to be five, meaning you will see a slow erosion in the goldman holding of dollars. In terms of the percentage point changes per year rather than a multiple percentage points. You sohn normand, thank much for the pre. We greatly appreciated, especially we greatly appreciate it, especially after the market volatility from yesterday. We have much more coming up, a colleague of john normands here. David kelly, the j. P. Morgan global strategist, will join us. Futures up 22, dow futures up 1. 22. Stay with us. , thisondon, from new york is bloomberg. Ritika this is bloomberg surveillance. Im ritika gupta with your booming business flash. , the companyla plunged 21 . The it took investors who had bets on its entry to the benchmark i surprise. In japan, bloomberg has learned that softbank has received orders for all 12 billion of its domestic unit stock come up for sale. The companys bankers will probably place an overallotment. Softbank has been raising cash with asset sales. Was supposedmulan to be another blockbuster for disney, but now it is a political headache. The problem is that disney did some of its filming in a region where china has detained up to a million ethnic uighurs. Company executives could testify before congress. That is the Bloomberg Business flash. Tom . Francine . Francine thank you so much. Equity futures rising after the sharp selloff we saw yesterday. Dollar erasing increases, but really the story of the week, we need to spend theme on worries that brexit talks may actually collapse, and that is really moving for the market. Tom im so glad you mentioned that. This has been off the u. S. Radar with the market pullback on tesla and apple. Sterling just hammered, there is no other way to put it. 1. 939. Cine mentioned, what icet as stability and a lift to the market, you dont have what i see as stability and a lift to the market, on the 30 year bond, the 10 year, 6. 7 . We have equities up, but we dont have an accompanying higher yield with it. Dollar stronger as well. Dxy, the major currency pair, that is affected by weaker sterling. 93. 56 on dxy. Yen, cannot get to the strong yen that john normand was yen as about, 105. 99 on well. Coming up, as we move towards the election, different views, different perspectives, a strong trump supporter. Michael braun of indiana, the jr. Senator from indiana come on balance of power. , a conversation on the president s election campaign. From london, from new york, this is bloomberg. Good morning. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. I am Francine Lacqua in london with tom keene in new york. Has paused a late stage trial was a Coronavirus Vaccine after a participant got ill. The drugmaker said it was to allow researchers to examine the safety but it could derail efforts of the oxford vaccine, seen as one of the leading candidates to provide immunization against covid19. Joining us with the latest is our pharmaceutical coverage for bloomberg intelligence. Sam, what does this mean for other people trying to get for other companies to try to get people to sign off as vaccine guinea pigs . What does it mean for the actual vaccines of other companies . Sam that is a great question. What we have to think about is if the side effect is proven to be associated with the vaccine, and if it is to do with the way works itzeneca vaccine will have negative connotations for Johnson Johnson especially, because they are using a similar approach. On the other hand, if the vaccines from pfizer and moderna show efficacy and safety, they get a boost from the fact that their competitor possibly have to leave the picture. Is really important here, and i really want to onmend the Bloomberg Team this, is the understanding of how many phase three trials fail. The numbers are shocking, across all of medicine, forget about the pandemic as well. This is not statistically a surprise, is it . Sam not at all. In our world, when we value biotechs and phase threes, we put 60 probability of success on those trials. Here you are doing with a completely novel virus and novel disease, novel vaccine technology. It is going into healthy volunteers, not just because of lack of efficacy, but safety becomes a big question. Of course, that is absolutely the case and an issue we have to be reminded of especially when we try to push for a certain date for the delivery of a vaccine. Going to so are we quickly . Is there too much pressure from Company Bosses or politicians to find a vaccine . Sam i dont think so. I dont think there is too much pressure here. And there is a lot of pressure but i dont think it is a result we are seeing this issue here. They are doing large trials. They havent been pushed to the smaller trials. And the data will come out. It is just the rhetoric in the iskground creates such noise that of sitting back and letting these companies do their job. Tom so is it a dead vaccine . Do they amend the vaccine . What is the next step for them . Sam i dont think they can amend the vaccine. It is way too early to call it a dead vaccine. We just have to wait and see what the details are. The background of the patient, for example, or the subject. Until that comes through, we just have to wait and see. Dont forget, astrazeneca is not making any profit from this, at le

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