Zealand is set for a shallower recession than previous years. The pandemic may have a lingering impact when it comes to government expenses. We bring you the numbers breaking this hour. Lets get you started with our lets get you started with a quick check of our markets trading at this hour. We had a mixed finish. Stocks, in fact, fell, erasing earlier gains after that selloff intensified. Tech fed chair powell not sure if this economic recovery will continue, that really dampening the moon. Tech communications leading declines. Switch of the board and you can see what small and midcaps did with the russell 2000, outperforming, look at that, up 9 of the close. We had the fed really keeping rates low, helping that entire sector. Pressure, andf that paired most of its losses with treasury yields climbing after chair powell also said the current size of the Asset Purchase Program was appropriate, the 10year yield hanging around the highest levels in almost a week. We also have the 530 yield curve steepening to the highest since september 10. We also have to digest retail Sales Numbers that missed forecast today. There was a lot happening, especially with the fed and data as well. Haidi really a sense of disappointment that in particular, fed chair powell did not target some of those longer and maturities when it comes to the reaction on the bond market. Lets take a look at how we are setting up here in asia. We have the fed out of the way, but looking ahead to bank of japan, bank indonesia, some of the bank of england, this rounding out a very busy thursday. Over. 1 . Just we expect gdp numbers to show perhaps a shallower recession but increasingly concerns about the impact on the countrys Fiscal Health as well as taking a look at the kiwi, we are seeing that at negative rates, potentially as soon february. The nikkei trading pretty flat going into the bank of japan decision. The incoming Prime Minister could be feeling pretty comforted by the fact that we are looking at the fact that no modern japanese leader taking over from a long serving premier has seen stocks fall on their watch, but potentially, that rally could continue on equities. Sydney futures higher at the moment. The dollar holding at 73. 05 after what was really just some side words sideways trading ultimately in the dollar index. We are getting three more years of euro rates in the u. S. Lets take a listen to what fed chair powell had to say. We believe that particularly this very strong Forward Guidance, very powerful Forward Guidance we have announced today will provide strong support for the economy. Effectively, we are seeing that rates will remain highly accommodative until the economy is far along in its recovery and that should be a powerful statement in support of economic activity. Haidi lets get more analysis by the feds latest policy direction. Kathleen thank you very much. Of course, Forward Guidance, very powerful is how jay powell characterized it. You heard him say this should help the u. S. Have a strong recovery. What exactly is the new Forward Guidance . At the top of the list, the Federal Reserve will not raise rates until inflation hits 2 . Mind you, inflation has not hit 2 and stayed above it consistently for nearly eight years. Secondly this is a very important addition the fed wants to see the economy reaching maximum employment. A lot of people asking how you will define that, but there it is, another important part of the puzzle. Finally, the third part is that the fed is saying in the Forward Guidance that they will allow they will expect inflation not just to hit 2 , but they will allow for an overshoot. Longer rigid. The target is much more flexible. This is something people were waiting for, but it has big implications for consumers, businesses, investors, for everyone. Chief lets bring in the economist for the aflcio, the largest federation of unions in the United States. Great to have you. Thank you for your time. Give us your insight. What is your reaction from the statement . We had two dissents, with one member clearly wanting more dovish rhetoric and the other, more flexibility. Right. This month, as chairman powell said, very powerful Forward Guidance because it is a clear signal the u. S. Government has the fiscal space to respond to the crisis. So far, we are in a conundrum because the u. S. Senate has toused to take up the charge fill the hole. The house passed the heroes act many weeks ago because we understood that the recovery was not happening as quickly as we thought, and we were running out of the temporary measures that had been put in place back when we passed the cares act. Extending extra money to unemployed workers, filling the gap for the workers who have lost their Health Insurance so they could continue it, making sure state and local governments would have the wherewithal as their new fiscal year started, all those things are necessary, and this Forward Guidance from you have the fiscal space, please act. I dont think it is in a Forward Guidance it has to be the democrat version of the stimulus bill . I guess heres my question would any version between where republicans are and the democrats be a step that is absolutely necessary right now to keep the recovery going . We are in a very deep hole. What senator mcconnell offered was totally inadequate for filling the gap, so it has to be much bigger. If we want to argue about whos package, at the moment, republicans have no package byore us, so i can only go their refusal to act towards the thing that is before them. Kathleen lets look at the fed and where they are now. One of the things the fed is looking at is maximum employment. We know employment got just over 3 . That was great. A lot of people got jobs, blacding flax including ks and latinos. Can the fed really use interestrate policy to guide the economy in such a way that this blunt tool will make sure that black workers, latino workers, everybody gets jobs in this economy . When we let the economy expand to its full capacity, that is what will happen. Everyone will be able to have access to jobs, and that did happen, at least for hispanics, back in the fall of 2019 when we finally got the hispanic male Unemployment Rate to be back with the white male Unemployment Rate. We continued into february until we reached the covid crisis. Nothing bad happened. It is clearly possible we can have the Unemployment Rate at below 4 for prolonged periods and we dont see any inflation. In fact, what we really do is guard ourselves against further inflation because we bring in more workers. They get more experience. They get better in terms of productivity and capacity, and end because wehe go deeper into the bench, so to speak, of workers without worrying about inflation. Everybody wins when we actually run the economy at full capacity. Miss thate when we mark. Could we actually be doing that unwittingly, with people out there saving . Seems to be sitting on the sidelines. Cash at the top of the Income Distribution is sitting at the sidelines. Things people cannot spend on travel and things like that so i dont know that the pentup demand is going to show itself in an inflationary way because we have so much excess capacity in those areas. We have restaurants that are dying to reopen. Emptye hotels that are so and airlines that would big to have people back on board, so the pentup demand is not from things we are already buying. Sherri coale into your point, with the fed saying they will make changes to the Mainstream Lending Program to broaden appeal how much of that has filtered into the broader economy . In some aspects because we have this inability to cure the disease in the United States. You had all that news about new zealands decline in the Second Quarter being less because they got the disease under control. They are the ones who need to worry about a huge spring back. The United States has failed to get the disease under control, in sight. No end we have the president on tape saying he even misled us, which makes it even worse for us to figure out is the path out of this. Kathleen i have to throw in new york citys numbers, which was a big endemic. Numbers way down, continuing to fall. There are definitely parts of the country that have gotten this under control or are moving in the right direction. I want to ask you, though, in terms of how will you know now . What are you going to watch . Maybe the economy gets strong enough, maybe theres a level of unemployment that is so low or something. What are you going to watch as an economist to say, we let the economy run hot you have argued for that for years we did not get inflation, but now we are at a point where i am getting more watchful, and i think that could happen, and people at the bottom get hit as hard or harder by inflation as people at the top of the income spectrum. Right now, we are way behind on wages and earnings. The point of letting the economy go above 2. 5 is to get out of the trap japan found itself in. The two percent becomes internalized by everyone as we cannot raise wages more than 2 no matter what you do, and the result is when wages fall behind, they never catch up, and we are going to need a period of catch up so that the household Balance Sheet can be pulled back into order. We cannot have the labor share continue to decline. We are going to have to move to a position where the labor share starts to increase, and that means that inflation will have to run at a more moderate level to give that space. Much forank you so your insight today. Chief economist for the afl cio policy editor, thanks. We will have more in the next hour with a former Philadelphia Fed president. Karina the World Economic slump will not be as bad as initially. Igured according to the oecd the oecd gave big revisions for the u. S. And eurozone as well as china, which is now expected to grow modestly. It says economies will still need the support of governments and Central Banks to aid in their recovery. One day after President Trump predicted a vaccine for the coronavirus would the ready in three to four weeks, Health Officials in the u. S. Have questioned that call. They had of Disease Control and prevention told a Senate Hearing vaccine will not be available until at least march next year. The nations top Infectious Disease expert dr. Anthony faucher told bloomberg he is reasonably confident of at least one by the end of this year. Dr. Fauci by the end of 2020, namely november or december, i feel reasonably confident there will be one or more vaccines that will be gun being made available to the american public. Karina global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloombergquinttake powered by more than 27 hundred journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Shery still ahead, oracle could get full access to tiktoks source code to make sure there are no backdoors. We will be discussing that next. Late this hour, we get the zealandsth amc new chief economist. This is bloomberg. Oracles tiktok bid still hangs in the balance President Trump saying he is not happy with what he has learned so far about the terms of the deal. Be getting access to tiktoks source code, but that has not alleviated the adminss concerns. This is a pretty big deal if it turns out the source code would. E included these are basically two details people have been scratching their heads over the what is days, which is oracles role in all of this . Finally, we got some details as to what all of that means, at its basically saying that bytedance continues to have majority ownership over tiktok, but its partnership with oracle allows them to have access to the code and changes and updates to basically see all the data going back and forth around tiktok. Trump says hent does not conceptually like the idea of bytedance having in its oh of bytedance having a majority stake. What are some of the changes could be made and what are some of the details that perhaps the administration does not like . The Administration Last month came out and said, we want a full out sale of tiktok. We wanted to be owned by an american company, not in the arms of a chinese company, and unless they do that, we are going to ban it. The proposal presented to the u. S. Administration over the weekend was not that. It was a deal for bytedance to maintain majority ownership and just have oracle and a number of other american investors have a stake, so theres a real difference between what trump said he wanted and what he actually got on the table. With that said, and a lot of people are falling into line. Steve mnuchin, Jared Kushner he saw marco rubio come out today, initially saying, i dont like this, but putting out a tweet in the afternoon saying the only thing that matters is that data is kept safe, and apparent kind of reference to this oracle detail, so its very unclear as to what trump will end up deciding in the end. Endi is it clear that an to these discussions will be imminent, or is there a sense that maybe this is just the start of negotiations . We know that for bytedance, there is probably knowledge in the back of their minds that november is not that far away and we could get potentially a whole new ballgame politically after that . Absolutely. Some would say this is just a stalling tactic, but if you are bytedance, you are thinking this might just work because you can really spin this in whatever way you want. Bytedance a way that gets to keep tiktok and the u. S. Gets security concerns addressed and a big company like oracle, whose founders has close ties or whose term and has close ties to donald trump, gets to say we are watching out and making sure everything is secure. Ride pass andout trump could sign off on it as early as this weekend, but also, he could decide that he does not want to. Shery so much hangs in the balance when it comes to this deal. Of course, we have been hearing from the president in his White House Press conference earlier talking a little bit about where we are at in terms of the that deal, saying deal between tiktok and oracle, but when it comes to the stimulus deal, saying there are questions that remain, that they are getting closer to endorsing a stimulus proposal and he would be supporting something that 2 trillion bill unveiled by that Bipartisan Group of about 50 house members to try and push this through. They are known as the problem solvers caucus. We also heard President Trump saying he also still had confidence in the cdc director after some confusion arose overnight over the timing of a vaccine deadline. Redfield saying the second or Third Quarter of next year would be more likely, with others saying potentially by april next year americans could be inoculated. President trump also saying he thinks vaccines are much more effective than wearing masks. Much more coming up including snowflakes soaring. An ipo for company more valuable than uber, gm, and dell. We hear from the ceo next. This is bloomberg. Softwaree cloud data maker snowflake sword done its debut transforming the company into a business now valuable more than uber, dell, and general motors. Its ipos the biggest in the u. S. This year and set the record for software deals. The chairman and ceo spoke with the chairman ceo spoke with Bloomberg Technology about the debut. We are thrilled with the reception. We started transferring ownership over a year ago, so this is really not something over the last couple of weeks. We had people buy into an offer we did earlier, january, february timeframe. Snowflake is really a handful of companies, so by the time we got to the ipo, there was really High Conviction buying into the offering, so we are thrilled with the way things have gone this week. Talk about conviction, shares more than doubling. You left a lot of money on the table. You have me concerned that you have given the bankers a little too much here . Thate assumption is always we could have sold the entire offering up the number we closed at, and obviously, theres such a thing as a demand curve. Theres always investors that are willing to buy some number of shares at higher prices, but as you know, the ipo is a price discovery process, and we were after a very specific set of institutional investors, people that can hold multibilliondollar positions, are willing to hold them for five to 10 years, and also people that dont chase momentum either up or down. Its not unusual for a price to get chased up by momentum players, retail and so on. Theres a lot of noise to it. The idea that we could have sold the whole thing at the price that we closed at i dont think is reasonable. Emily that said, is there a lesson for other Companies Looking to go out of the gate . We have huge openings expected for some other companies in Silicon Valley airbnb, ballantine. The question is how fast it will grow into its valuation rate, so you need to really do a lot of work with investors because they have to make longterm bets, right . Its not a 12month deal. People are buying you for 3, 5, seven years, and they need to. Nderstand the story to do that shery snowflake chairman and ceo speaking to Bloomberg Technology anchor emily chang. Regulators issued new online funding curbs. The regulations save loans should not exceed the firms net assets. Largest player in Online Cons