Strongso getting some data coming through and it comes to pending home sales. The month on month number blowing past expectations. We do better on a month by month basis of 8. 8 . That was well above expectations. That takes the nonseasonally adjusted year on year number two 20. 5 . This is a market that has come back in a really big way. Alix and continues to stay strong, like auto sales, undermining that fall off a cliff scenario. ,ast night, the highlights president trump, democratic nominee joe biden, which a debate, but turned out to be a boxing match. Everyone knows hes a liar. Pres. Trump you are the liar. You graduated last in your class. Mr. Biden you are the worst president america has ever had. Pres. Trump when needed, i wear masks. I dont wear masks like him. He could be speaking to hundred feet away from you and he shows up with the biggest mask ive ever seen. What is the Trump Health Care plan . Pres. Trump first of all, i guess i am debating you, not him, but thats ok. Im not surprised. The radical left mr. Biden would you shut up, man . This is so unprecedented. We have ended this segment. We are going to move onto to the second segment. Mr. Biden that was really a productive segment, wasnt it . Alix it was really unreal. Washington correspondent Kevin Cirilli was there. Usually, debates are where they present their platform, they present policy. They come back in four years and present the record on the policy. Nowhere to be seen with that last night. Kevin it was a mess. Lets just try to cut through all of the noise, and there is a lot of it cleveland, ohio at the first president ial debate. First and foremost, the last five minutes of that debate, really people should go back and watch because it really tees up a prolonged battle that could come after november 3. Couple that with the Supreme Court selection process, and this is really going to be a fascinating, prolonged electoral result that could last into december. President trump playing to his base. Democratic nominee joe biden trying to make appeals by going after the middle of working class voters, but he did so by disavowing senator Bernie Sanders, so does he do that with Political Risk of alienating the farleft . Will they show up for him in mailin ballots and on november 3 . And finally, where do we from here . Next week, salt lake city, the Vice President for debate. The week after in miami, cspans steve scully is going to moderated town hall debate. Independent voters in battleground states, people were just really annoyed and tired of the bickering and arguing they saw last night. Alix bloombergs Kevin Cirilli, thanks a lot. Also joining us is mark connors, Credit Suisse global head of risk advisory. When you have 90 minutes of them shouting overage shouting over each other, what deal even take away from that . Mark what kevin said earlier about noise, that is exactly what a trader does all day long is trying to find signal among the noise. Just looking at last nights example, and the markets, the signals are still there, but they are not daily signals. Of growth run trends outperforming value, even september, noise of the narrowing of market breadth that happened before covid and ,ven through covid even more so the trends are clear in the marketplace even amidst the political noise. So traders are keeping to their knitting. The macro funds are low to ground right now because of the noise. They are positioning inequities in the bottom quartile level. Long short funds still have their core positions intact. In tech. Emerging market funds are in china. We have seen positioning increase 60 on our book over the past four months in china. There on trade, etc. Noise is definitely the theme, trying to figure out what is what. Quartile have done a pretty good job. They are up 15 to 18 on the year. But the average numbers dont show that. Guy lets talk a little bit about volatility, which is a key risk metric. Volatility is elevated around the election. Did last night confirmed that that is the correct trade . Mark what i was talking about was trends, more somatic. You are pulling me more thematic. You are pulling me more forward to the here and now. Callolatility guru had a earlier today, the focus has gone from november, where there kink in the curve a the curve, and it has been pushed out to december. It has been pushed from the uncertainty of the outcome to the uncertain the of a resolution, the uncertain the of having an outcome at all. Are pushing the event out to december. People are worried about, again, noise and a lack of resolution if we have a tight race. Alix the pushback to that is that that is already priced in. Weve had a couple of calls for higher yield. That a democratic sweep could lift the s p. Our traders and investors looking at that yet . Mark they arent looking at a pop higher at all. Theres no positioning there. Theres no option positioning, books do wey on our see that debating trade. If there is a steepening, you will see equity volatility spike. If you are to look at the twostens curve over the past year, every time it pops up, there is a rotation. Like september of last year, and june of this year, and even into august. If that does happen, we will seek vol, but we dont. Do you guys think that we could have a 3 10 year this amount of debt, or is there a growth projection to have a tenure that does approach the 2 , 3 level . I dont think theres much out there saying that that is a nearterm possibility. Guy it will be interesting to see what the fed does with that, to see whether it would event that from happening. Lets talk about a move to the left. If we continue with the polling numbers at the moment, theres a possibility we could have a blue suite, with the presidency and the senate falling to the democrats. At that point, do you think the ark it needs to price in higher taxes . Using the shift the market needs to price and higher taxes . How do you price that . Which assets do i look at to get the best reaction if that were to be the outcome . Mark when you talk about any type of regulatory policy, look at who the winners have been. That narrow group of mega caps that have carried the market, where if you do an equal weighted s p, you are approaching european return levels. So if you do have tax or regulatory policy that pierces the exceptional top five, top 10 names, you are going to have an equity market likely rollover. If there is uncertainty about that kind of margin, that margin growth that those companies have had, i think it would be a risk to the market for sure. Guy mark, thank you. We will leave it there. Greatly appreciate your time, as ever. Nice to have you on the program. Mark connors of Credit Suisse, thank you very much. Coming up for you, new York City Restaurants cannot accept Indoor Dining, 25 capacity limit. We are going to look at the impact of the pandemic on the industry with the ceo of the new York State Restaurant Association. That is coming up next. This is bloomberg. Ritika lets check in on the bloomberg first word news. First billed at the residential debate, but last nights debate in cleveland quickly slipped into chaos. Trump and joe biden battled over the coronavirus. Moderator Chris Wallace kept trying, mostly in vain, to control the conversation. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is moving lawmakers closer to a luse on democrats stimu plan. The 2. 2 trillion measure [no audio] that would allow parliament to vote on certain restrictions before they become law. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Alix thanks so much. For the first time in three months, new york citys daily rate of positive tests is now more than 3 . This comes right is new York City Restaurants are set to return to Indoor Dining at 25 of capacity. Joining us with more is melissa the new York State Restaurant Association ceo. Thanks for joining us. Focusing specifically on the city, how many restaurateurs are going to reopen despite the fact cases arising . Melissa we dont know exactly how many are going to be reopening today. I think there are a number that have already been open for takeout and delivery and Outdoor Dining that are going to reopen, and there are some that have been shut down through this entire pandemic that are also planning to reopen. But until we start to see their doors open today and then welcome back people, we wont have a good count of exacting how many. Guy lets talk about breakeven capacity. We are going from 0 to 25 indoors. Where do you think the average restaurants breakeven capacity is . Melissa what they are telling us is 75 , but that is also, depending on what else they have going on. We do have expanded outdoor space in new york city that we didnt anticipate at the beginning of this. Foras been really helpful some of our restaurants. It takes all of these pieces working together. The delivery, the carry outcome of the Outdoor Dining, the Indoor Dining, to try to piece it back together. Alix do we have a sense of how Restaurant Owners are going to be thinking about Outdoor Dining when it gets cold . Anecdotally, i live in park slope in brooklyn. I have a lot of conversations with them there, and landlords are unwilling to put a lot of money for Outdoor Dining when there is so much insert. Melissa mayor de blasio so much uncertainty. Melissa mayor de blasio said there were additional guidelines coming for Outdoor Dining into the fall and winter. We need more guidelines on how they can use safety, used safely, what sort of enclosures we can have. We are hoping for that information so that we can move into the Colder Weather and continue to serve our guests comfortably. Guy in terms of what the industry now needs from government, the ppp loans, the money starts to expire now. What now needs to happen . What do you need to see at a state and local level and at a National Level . Level, at the national it is definitely additional funding. It is a top concern for our restaurants across the state of new york. We did a survey of members and nonmembers and found that there is going to be 64 who feel they cant make it to the end of the year without additional financial assistance. That was prior to the announcement about indoor reopening in new york city. , so wet is a big number are very focused on getting additional federal funding through a dedicated restaurant fund, additional ppp, grant programs. At this point, whatever we can take. We need additional assistance, and it needs to be financial help. New york city and new york state are not really in a position to do that for us, so we have to turn to the federal government. Alix do we had a read yet on total layoffs in the sector and how many have been brought back . Just because you are going to reopen doesnt mean youre going to have 100 of your staff. Melissa either 80 were either furloughed or laid off, so that is about 527 thousand employees. Throughout the summer, they have started to come back. New york city couple of months ago was at about a 30 prepandemic level of employment. We will have to wait and see what the numbers look like after we reopen in getting to october a little bit to see how it went for hiring in september. Guy other industries are trying to figure out how they can is testing to allow patrons to come back. The Airline Sector is looking at this, other sectors are looking at this. Is there any way that this could work for the Restaurant Industry . It seems weird to take a test before you are allowed into a restaurant, but is there anything to be done that would allow extra capacity to come on stream . Melissa i dont know how long the test results would be good for. I guess that would be my question. If you tested negative two days ago, are you still negative . That would be an interesting question for us. We are going to have to take temperatures of our guests coming into the restaurant today. That is the first time we are going to be doing that for Indoor Dining in new york city. We are going to have to have people understand that and be patient as we move forward with that process. Alix when i go into a restaurant, if i go eat indoors on the weekends, what is it going to be like for me when i go there . Goinga hopefully you are to see everybody wearing their masks, waiting patiently, social distanced. We are going to have to ask you to take your temperature. We are going to need at least one person in your party to provide us for information so that we can contact trace, should there be any sort of exposure from someone else in the restaurant. Feweren we also have tables, fewer chairs. You are going to be spaced out. You are going to need to stay seated. These wear your mask whenever you get up to move around the restaurant. It is going to be a different experience, but hopefully you are still able to enjoy some great food and service. Guy we are going to leave it there. You very much for your time, melissa. Thank you very much indeed, the new York State Restaurant Association see you association ceo. Job losses keep mounting for the Airline Industry. We will discuss the outlook with ben baldanza, former Spirit Airlines the. Airlines ceo. That conversation is coming up. This is bloomberg. Guy 22 minutes past the hour. This is bloomberg markets. U. S. Stocks moving higher off fresh stimulus hopes out of washington, d. C. Richmond fed president Thomas Thomas barkin spoke to bloomberg. Naturally you would expect to see that recovery be a little more gradual. Where i see the real challenge now is getting the last 5 of americans back into the workforce. That is where ive got my focus. Is that going to happen . What are ceos and Business Leaders telling you about their plans to hire and to invest, does been more money . To invest, to spend more money . Theres a lot of uncertainty about the virus, and also what demand is going to look like next year. All of that, richmond fed president Thomas Barkin speaking of the economy, as we got a new round of layoffs from disney. These are really serious numbers, 28,000. A lot of them were parttime to begin with. Then shell pulling forward 9000 job cuts. For disney, when you have the parttime worker that was actually started to recover, you see that tick moving higher, does that rollover . What is it due to fiscal stimulus . Does the conversation change because of those layoffs . Guy we will be talking about airlines in a few minutes time. Those furloughs could come into force over here in europe as well. Lookingtal potentially at 30,000 job losses as well. These are big numbers, as you say. Various sectors within the economy. We have just been talking about the Restaurant Industry as well. It is probably something that is going to become a force over the next few months as we go through the winter. Job losses front and center right now. The adp number today was better than anticipated, and it is going to be interesting to see with the jobs numbers look like on friday. Alix which is interesting because it is the last jobs number before the election in the u. S. It wont be reflect of of, say, disneys 28,000 workers, so how does trump move the narrative forward in terms of taking credit for a stronger market when we are getting these headlines, even though they are not get reflected in the numbers . Guy selectively, i would probably suggest. I look forward to hearing what mr. Kudlow has to say on what exact leave the unwomen story looks like a word what exactly the unemployment story looks like going forward. It is the story of trying to get back to those precovid implement levels. The last 5 is going to be really tricky, but that is a really critical part of the economy. You cant get back to full employment you cant get back to close for employment, that is going to be a big drag on the u. S. Economy. It is likely a similar story in europe, where we are starting to hear that the big slug of money that we thought was coming in terms of the Recovery Fund, that is not a done deal. I think the market thought that was a done deal. That is a big factor when it comes to unemployment. It goes to this idea that companies are really struggling with the uncertainty. Do you employ people at a point of such huge uncertain, particularly when we heard about the signal and the noise earlier on . So much noise, so Little Signal at the moment. We will focus back on the Airline Sector in just a moment. Ben baldanza, former Spirit Airlines ceo, will be joining us to talk about what is next for that sector. This is bloomberg. Guy live from london, im guy johnson, with alix steel in new york. This is bloomberg markets. Eight months into the global pandemic, and it seems like there will be no quick comeback for the Airline Sector. Baldanza, now, ben former Spirit Airlines ceo. What thek about industry does next. The notices have gone out. Thousands of jobs are at risk. The job protections that went with the c. A. R. E. S. Act money expire as of tomorrow. Do you think we are going to see huge numbers of involuntary redundancies if congress, if washington does not step up in short order . Ben thank you very much for having me. I think if congress doesnt step of the payrollab protection program, i think you fromsee very large layoffs many major u. S. Airlines. Every airline has been working with their employee, trying to get voluntary cut acts, maybe stepping back for six months or