Struggled since february. Francine im really looking forward to speaking ian the little more about this eurasia report. The question is if you look at financial risk, it is at the bottom of the list. We talk about you wonder if we talk about health risks and the pandemic that we ignore black swan. Next, we need to talk about brexit with en as well. Tom are we with ian as well. Tom are we on the watchlist for the Prime Minister of ireland . We are waiting for comment from ireland, right . Francine we have a new leader summit and we are expecting him to come out, yes. Also expected to talk about the internal markets bill. Tom pound sterling is 128. 47, a bit weak today. With first word news, here is ritika gupta. Ritika President Trump signed a stopgap legislation that will avert a government shutdown. It will keep the government operating at current spending levels through december 11. The countries of Spending Authority expired at midnight. Neither democrats nor republicans won today shutdown weeks before the election. Mnuchinlosi and stephen say they made progress on a compromised stimulus bill. They plan to continue negotiations. He sees ans agreement costing as much as 2. 2 trillion. The eu started legal action against the u. K. Over brexit. Bloomberg learned that you will send a letter accusing the u. K. Of breaching the terms of agreement and breaking international law. Its the first step in a process that could end up at the European Court of justice. Stock exchange halted trading for the entire day because of a hardware breakdown. Its the worst ever outage for the exchange. They hope to resume trading as normal on friday. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I am ritika gupta and this is bloomberg. Tom thanks so much. We are looking for signs in the Fourth Quarter recovery. The data matters, but what matters is pensacola giving us an organic Revenue Growth statistic. This is one of those signs out of and into a new quarter that really matters. The pepsicola thirdquarter organic revenue is up 4. 2 . And that is really not all that bad a statistic. Maybe that is some optimism of an earnings recovery. Gina martin adams is scheduled to be here in a bed. Upures up 34, dow futures 265. Pound sterling is crushed pound sterling, is crushed the right word . Francine i wouldnt say crushed but certainly sensitive to any news and we could see it go lower depending on what happens in these negotiations. Im looking at brexit concerns, weakening pounds, the dollar steady, and u. S. Futures climbing on these potential signs of progress from washington towards a fresh stimulus package. A lot of industries in europe dont think that will be the case. Tom thank you so much. Futures up 33. There are reports that come out, this is the time of year, autumn, all back from the summer, and there is courage within reports. It is simple, the public feel most vulnerable to health and computer related risks. Without question, we have identified this. Public authorities in asiapacific are the best prepared. Heres the heart of the matter is this im as Simon Kennedy spoke about. The fact whitecollar workers could work from home in their summer place, but blue color could not, and this undermines social cohesion. This is an exceptionally brave different report from axa, the friends french insurance giant, and we are thrilled for dr. Bremmer to join us. You guys had the courage to get away from the mass, which is fine. People have done that great. You talk about the social harm and Mental Health exhaustion of this pandemic. What did you learn . Ian the extraordinary acceleration of inequality, how much is being born on the backs of those that cannot bore on the backs of those that cannot participate in the economy. We know technology has been disrupting people and their jobs, but this pandemic made it clear that, for large percentages of advanced economies population, we are not talking about a fourth industrial revolution, we are talking about a postrevolution. As you see the layoffs that go from furlough to permanent, from disney, from the companies yesterday, from all of the airlines coming real soon, these are some of the people in the most challenging positions in the u. S. In the european economies and elsewhere. These are jobs that are not coming back, people that dont have the training or skill set to retool themselves in the jobs opening up in other places, and they will get angry. Risk, itlargely a 2020 is largely a future risk, because you place these people wherecarious societies governments are not going to continue for the kind of relief that they all have been able to do in the six months of this pandemic. We have not seen anything yet. Ian dr. Bremmer, were all in an. Proar for the debate the fact is Jennifer Rubin was outstanding at the Washington Post on the fragilitys of the president under those bright lights. Anald trump represents american spirit, the idea of an individualistic, go for yourself tone. Is that dead out of this pandemic . That,e says he represents but of course he doesnt. The idea that governments should as anll and independent arbiter, and people need to make their own way, but if you look at cabinet under trump, it is massively staffed with highlevel figures from the private sector who are very interested in ensuring big corporations get preferential treatment. T is not a lockean of i like an key environment lockean environment. They can make sure their Companies Get behind the gate, people were so angry that system was so pervasive in the United States. Compared to the other economies, you can better predict persons wealth in the u. S. I the wealth of the parents. In any other oecd country, that was not the way it was in the 1970s. There was much more mobility. In four years of President Trump, that has become greater. Not less. I take the point that, ideologically, you have this lockean message from trump, creating the brand of giving the people the risk they want. Bread andis all about circus, they are running out of red and relying more on circus. Francine when would you be comfortable calling the election . Do you look at underlying questions people will see, or do you trust oppose . Ian i trust the polls, i trust that the polls in 20 trusted the polls in 2016. I feel comfortable calling at biden is well ahead and will remain well ahead. If it was as of today, it would be 65 35 biden, but that is only calling the election on the basis of who is voting and are all the votes counted . Certain the almost election will be contested by the loser, whoever the loser is. The pandemic ensures that, the challenge of counting in pandemic ensure that ensures that, and the fact that President Trump is doing Everything Possible to politicize who votes in person and who votes in mail. It almost guarantees the selection has any asterisk on it. Francine ian bremmer there. With the Prime Minister in brussels. [speaking foreign language] tom my dutch is failing me there right now, francine. Im trying. Audience explains our why he is so important. Francine he was part of the frugal force, the countries that did not want the Recovery Plan up first, because they thought some countries that would have access to the funds would squander them. Theres also a fight between the netherlands and other European Countries on taxation and how you would go into it. A couple key points are brexit, because there is an eu leader summit and also the day and it is also the day with the commission sent a letter to the u. K. Saying we are legally challenging your bill, which reneges on the bill agreement. Theres a lot more acrimony when it comes to brexit and negotiations. I think the next question is for maria tadeo, speaking to mark. In english. Lets listen in. [inaudible] do you think that makes a potential deal more difficult . I think were making a little bit too much out of it. I believe its an administrative next step, given the fact that this particular law passed so many stages in the u. K. Parliament. I believe it is moving to the house of lords, so my understanding is that this is an administrative and legal step the commission is taking, also within its power, at this stage of the bill being pushed forward in the u. K. Parliament. I dont think it will influence to a large extent the negotiations. [inaudible] it made the community very nervous this morning. Sure. I completely understand why the commission is doing this. It is their power to do. It makes sense that this administrative staff on this administrative step taken. I wouldnt read too much into it. Its a signal in its own right. I believe it had to be done and will not influence too much the negotiations with the u. K. When do you think theres an actual real deadline where they need to have it done by this time . It would help if it is done by the end of the year. Im not going to commit myself to a date. The sooner the better, and i believe we all agree somewhere in october it will be nice to have at least the general outline and details of a deal ready. Because we have to prepare for eventualities. I think the European Union is willing to close the deal. We are committed, united, completely standing behind the commission, and Michel Barnier as our chief negotiator, but it is up to them to show that they are also willing to close a deal. I believe it is in their own interest to do that. For this final question. [inaudible] there is real concerns the payments tagged to that Recovery Fund could be delayed. Message to the European Union when comes to those payments . The july bill was a package. It was not easy to secure a political majority in parliament for the deal. Edification has to be done later, but the political commitments in the Dutch Parliament on the complete package agreed in july, part of the package is the rule of law. Rule of law conditionality, which is being hammered out. It is not unusual, at that stage, that you have some debates about the nittygritty details about what is being put on paper. Proposal togerman come to an agreement within the council and parliament. We think that proposal is not yet at a level we wanted to be. We generally support your money in trying to reach a deal. We dont think that is disproportional, its good enough, should be better, and we Hope Parliament will be tough on this. Committed tobe make sure that we stay close in july. [inaudible] this Recovery Fund might not be operational by january. In theory, everything can happen, but nobody wants that. I think Everyone Wants to make sure that we agreed what we agreed elliptically in july is put on paper and then richer five by the respective parliaments rectified by the respective parliaments. Thank you. Francine that was the Prime Minister of the netherlands speaking to maria tadeo in brussels. We also heard from the Prime Minister of ireland early on. Ian bremmer, president of eurasia group. How ugly can brexit become . Ian first of all, i am shocked. Wass 65, i thought that genetics. 65, i thought that was genetics. Theres a pretty held question about whether they end up crashing out at the end of the year. As said, the legal response to , the legalh move action, is pretty pro forma. It doesnt stop the negotiations, doesnt stop brussels from wanting to get a deal done, and they have not overreacted at any point here. Boris johnson is facing a much more difficult fight internally within his own conservative party. He is starting to face a real challenge in terms of labor becoming more positive. They have gotten rid of deplorable leadership. He has also had a much harder ,ime responding to coronavirus the worst response we have seen across the entirety of europe. All of which means there is a question mark around whether we will get a deal. It will be much more on what happens in london in the u. K. Than what happens with us in 2016. Francine i want to go back to something you are telling us, are expecting a contested u. S. Election no matter what. How ugly could that be . Could that make a lot of foreign powers look at the u. S. Differently . Ian i think it depends on how close the election is. Its possible biden will be declared the winner on the day if he is able to win florida because they count all the absentee balance as they come in , but trump will still tested. Ballots as they come in, but trump will still contest it. Its possible that the contesting will be within the margin of error that we have to come until votes come in. Thats we will see over the course of weeks or more. If that happens, we are in a lot of trouble. You could easily see a constitutional crisis. I think the rest of the world looks at america by the way, they look at america differently not just because of the selection, not just because of the shambolic debate that no one should have watched because it was bad for our Mental Health from a couple evenings ago, but rather because of the steady deterioration of institutional legitimacy in so many areas of the american political franchise. The military still works well, the judiciary supports rule of law, though somewhat more politicized, but if you look at the way elections are running, if you look at the inability of congress to govern together, look at the removal of the civil thosee, politicization of in highlevel corruption, and the way the executive is running itself, all of that implies the United States is less of a representative democracy. We are not about to become an authoritarian state, but we are increasingly a hybrid system, and that is not a system the rest of the world is going to look to and say, we want a political system that looks like that. Are you kidding me . Francine in the tom tom in the time we have left, in the future risks report, what this is about is this wistful feeling of getting back to what we knew. Of 2020,ybe january 2006, whatever. The president s nostalgia for the 1950s. What is your gauge of how we all get back to what we knew once there is a vaccine . Ian one of the definitions of a depression, as opposed to a recession, is not that it is larger in scale but also the impacts are permanent. It changes the way we go about our life. I have no doubt we will be able to stop social distancing over the course of the next one to two years. I have no doubt that we will create a new equilibrium that feels like normal society, but it will be different. A lot of companies that are gonna will be gone forever. A lot of jobs that are gone will be gone forever. Thats the way society works, the nation natured of the social contract will change nature of the social contract will change because of the coronavirus. I wouldnt try to think about when life returns to normal but rather think about when we are able to finally have certainty about what the new normal will look like. People dont like the fact that they dont know what their next three or six months are going to look like. Are they going to be able to get their kids in school . What will that feel like . How many restaurants can they go to . What are their sports franchises going to look like . People hate that uncertainty. I think, by the time we get to next spring, and the weather is , and theetter vaccines are starting to get distributed, people will have clarity. Tom ian bremmer, thank you so much. Axa, with giant eurasia group, their most important reports in this pandemic on the social get this ins social conditions and Mental Health we are all struggling through. Coming up on balance of power, the speaker of the house, no doubt the first question on stimulus. Futures advance up 29. Pound sterling, 128. 42. This is bloomberg. Bloomberg surveillance, good morning, everyone. Wait for thes we 8 30 jobs report. The conversation of the day, the speaker of the house of representatives with david westin in the 12 00 hour. The dollar weaker, 93. 77. American oil under 40 per barrel still. Francine that is actually a move we need to look at. For a reminder for everyone else, the tokyo stocks change halted trading for the entire day, so we will see what happens tomorrow. The pound a sliding after a report that the u. K. And eu remain far apart in brexit negotiations, and we have the legal challenge the president was talking about. I put the italian 10 year yield just for good measure. Coming up in bloomberg markets, a conversation with my moynahan, bank of america chief executive officer. He will have a conversation with our david westin. This is bloomberg. So youre a small business, or a big one. You were thriving, but then. Oh. Ah. Okay. Plan, pivot. How do you bounce back . You dont, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. Powered by the largest gig Speed Network in america. But is it secure . Sure its secure. And even if the power goes down, your connection doesnt. So how do i do this . You dont do this. We do this, together. Bounce forward, with comcast business. Is bloomberg surveillance. I am ritika gupta with the bloomberg first word news. The president ial debate format will change in the wake of tuesdays chaotic shutdown. The commission will say what changes wont say what changes will be made but wants to ensure a more orderly discussion of issues. Joe biden says candidates should be able to speak interrupted. The Trump Campaign says the changes are moving the goal posts. American and United Airlines will start laying off thousands of workers the next few days as scheduled. Both promised to reverse the furloughs if the government agrees to provide additional payroll aid in the next few days. American plans to lay off 19,000 workers. United will cut about 13,000. In the u. K. , a major study shows that restrictions on social contact may be helping slow the spread of the converse. Researchers coronavirus. Researchers tested more than 80,000 volunteers last month. Results show the virus spreading, but not as quickly as it had been in august. Global news 24 hours a day, onair and o