All of the effort back and forth over the weekend. I would really focus on the immediacy of the calendar forward. Weve got the Vice President ial debate on wednesday. 10 days out to a president ial debate, i believe still scheduled. Jonathan so far. Tom and in 29 days, the election. I think those are the numbers that get everyones attention this morning. The National Polling not looking good for the president of the United States. On twitter right now, that is the campaign for the president right now, knowing what these polls look like at the moment. Tom around 10 00 make it around 10, weve got a new tweet. 91 approval rating. Vote these are short bursts of tweets , i guess showing the action that he wants to come out of walter reed this morning. Jonathan and hit became pin trail, virtually speaking hit the campaign trail, virtually speaking. Lisa to me, really interesting to see the momentum, how much it is slowing. We saw signs of than the jobs report. U. S. We will get a read on september jobs and services pmis. You can see a huge recovery, and yet the momentum is certainly slowing. We will be hearing from chicago feds charlie evans. Will he walked back the messiness that he caused last month when he talked about possibly hiking rates for the fed met its inflation target . Later today, and this will be interesting, joe biden is going to be holding a town hall meeting in miami, hosted by nbcs lester holt. Very interesting to see how much focus is going to be on his tax plan, given that he does plan to raise corporate taxes, especially as President Trump tries to bring that to the four. Jonathan dear issei i think we heard more from the president from hospital than we did re i say i think we heard more from the president from hospital than we did from the former Vice President. In the bond market, yields up a basis point to 0. 71 . Stocks delivered a week of gains last week. The 10 year yield ended the week higher, not lower. Credit spreads did not widen monday through friday on highyield. I actually found last week fascinating. Tom i looked at a couple of things. What i really looked at was the bloomberg dollar index, which is absolutely in the middle of its elegantlyutifully, sitting on one of the moving averages i use. It is exactly as you described, a muddle. Would you explain to me the 30 year bond . 1. 52 . Humanity, jonathan yields up three basis point. Well talk about a little bit later in the hour. Joining us now, steve shive. Round Steve Chiavarone can you walk me through how you are processing things this monday morning . Steve youve got to be careful trying to find the latest data points. You need something to look out to. You need something that is your kind of guidepost. For us, that guidepost is the set of circumstances we think are going to be in place towards the back half of the First Quarter of next year. We think by that date, you will have a vaccine of some sort, a president of some kind. An economic recovery that is almost a year old, a fed that is still doing nothing. We think we will still have a fiscal stimulus package at that point, and he will have very easy yearoveryear earnings comparisons. When you look at the risk on appetite of the market last week, i think that is what it is looking towards. Tom what is the appetite of c class officers to merge . We have this bristol miles this Bristol Myers biotec, i know it is a Small Company out of san francisco, but what is the urge to consolidate among the big cap space . Steve we have already separated the winners from the losers, but those that are in the position now have the ability to login competitive advantages by taking out weaker competitors. I thing you are going to see a lot of that over the next couple of years. The gain, when youre looking at the weaker players, is who is going to die and who is going to get purchased. I think that is going to be the big theme for the next couple of years. Lisa President Trump keeps tweeting. He cut corporate taxes to 21 , joe biden proposing to bring them back up to 28 . A number of estimates say that will materially cut profitability for a number of companies, including big tech. How much are you modeling for this . Steve less than the street. The street in general has about a 10 to 15 aiming through 15 Earnings Growth dip from bidens tax policy, but hes raising taxes in order to fund more spending. I thick there are some offsetting spending initiatives. We think it is more like 5 , 10 . Outside of corporate taxes, we think the biggest change is actually the change on Capital Gains taxes. If the top income tax earners are going to pay a 40 Capital Gains tax Going Forward instead of 20 this year, we think youre going to see folks really try to harvest those gains in 2020, and that could cause a late your selloff in tech and highflying growth. That is something we got our eye on pretty closely. Jonathan where do the fiscal talk that into all of this right now . Steve i think theres a renewed sense of urgency behind this, but ultimately we are going to get stimulus. It is either going to be before the election as a bipartisan deal, or if not, it will be in the lameduck when no one has any political concerns, and if not then, then when there is a new congress. The stimulus that has been put in the system, economy open, youre going to have tender. If we have to close but down like in certain parts of new york, that is pretty restrictive on growth. I think that is even more important than what weve got in washington. Tom for me in my weekend reading the paragraph for me in my weekend reading was from michael , on the partition between goods and Service Sectors. Can you construct a portfolio around that . Ighted touys we goods producing versus the disinflation of Service Sector . How does that cut . Steve that is a great question. Tom its my only one for the week. You get it. Steve weve never really broken it down that way, but where we are right now, as we go into the back half of the year, you have some of those potential tax changes. We think we are getting ourselves on the other side of covid in the first half of next year. At least, that is our hope. We have gone overweight goods and Services Sectors and have gotten beaten up. The hotels, the cruise lines, the casinos. We have gone overweight from the goods producing Industry Groups like materials, and like consumer durables. I think it is a scenario where right now, if we end up with a Biden Victory and a vaccine, we think that will be in the interest of a very big rotation toward cyclicals and away from some of the defensive growth names, for tax reasons, and because we think we have an economic recovery which is selfsustaining at this point. Even the jobs number on friday, if you strip out what happened with government workers, the economy added jobs at a very strong clip. That was more of a story of schools not reopening than the economy rolling over. Lisa wondering when you expect the vaccine to come out and be in distribution in full in order for your prophecy to come true. Then i will answer it and tell you why i dont think it is about when it is in distribution. It is not likely to be in distribution until the end of the First Quarter, middle of next year, etc. I think thats right. But psychologically, knowing that we have something that works is going to be very important. If you are a restaurant and you have scrapped yourself through this summer with Outdoor Dining and take out, you know you are in for a difficult winter. If you have a vaccine that you know is coming, you are going to beg, borrow and steal to stay open, and that is going to preserve jobs. If you have no hope things are going to get better come springtime, why not shutdown today . Why lose money for the next six months . I think it is really about the announcement that we have science that we know is going to work, and then we can bridge the gap with a stimulus bill or with people trying to hold on until it is distributed. But we are under no illusions that we are all going to take a magic pill in november and this is going to be over. , alongk that the vaccine with regenerons antibodies and Gileads Remdesivir and dexamethasone are going to put this thing in a box. Jonathan as you know, Many Companies the last seven months have been holding off and holding off. Steve, great to catch up. Think you, sir. Interesting move at the long end of the yield curve. The 30 year up by about three basis points to 1. 52 . It is going to be interesting to see how the long end lines up with the recent polling in the next set of polling. The polling we are seeing and talking about this morning is the postdebate polling. The post covid positive read for the president of the United States, that polling in the coming days is going to be interesting. Tom Martin Schenker was brilliant on this, our chief content officer. What he emphasizes, these are National Polls, and that is all great, except this is not a national election. It is about x number of states. I am a lot more interested in the dynamics of the state polls in the coming three days. Jonathan we will catch up with martin in 20 minutes. Ubs head of u. S. Rates strategy will be later, right here on bloomberg tv and radio. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Bloomberg surveillance. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. Theres confusion over how President Trump is being treated for the coronavirus. In public, his doctors remain upbeat. One says the president to be released today from the Military Hospital in maryland, where he has been since friday night. Still, another one said the president has been given supplement to austin and says supplement to oxygen and has been education typically used in more severe cases. Trump waved from his motorcade in a bid to demonstrate strength. Joe biden leads President Trump by 14 in the new wall street poll, hisbc news biggest of the campaign his biggest lead of the campaign. The poll was taken after the debate, but before the president was hospitalized for coronavirus. Warning the public that a very tough winter lies ahead, he accepts that people are angry with the way he is handled the pandemic. Boris johnson tells the bbc it is going to be a bumpy christmas, and maybe even bumpy be on that. A huge deal in big pharma today. Bristolmyers squibb has agreed firm worth 31h billion in cash. That represents a 61 premium to the companys Closing Price on friday. It would expand bristolmyers lineup of heart drugs. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Pres. Trump its been a very interesting journey. I learned a lot about covid. I learned it by really going to school. This is the real school. And i get it. And i understand it. And it is a very interesting thing. I am going to be letting you know about it. Jonathan the president of the United States after the inconsistent messaging over the health. Over his equity futures getting that material bounce, was futures up across the board in the United States. Futures up 0. 7 . Weaker dollar, stronger euro. 1. 1755. Ar, on the 10 year, a list about a 0. 68 percent. Tom theres a little bit of book reading going on at the acclaimed Walter Reed Hospital. The data this morning is interesting. A celebration, perhaps, of a healthy president. We will see how that unfolds across the morning. What is different from my last conversation with Marty Schenker the president is using his best vehicle of communication. I think theres been some 300 tweets this morning. Martin there havent been 300, but there have been a number of them. Tom what is the signal . Martin signal that he wants to some normalcy, if you can call it that. What is normal in trumps world is an interesting thought. But when he was first diagnosed, he ceased tweeting for Something Like 36 hours, so that cause a lot of concern, i think. Jonathan it is a wide range of topics tom it is a wide range of topics that the president addresses. The wide range of polling is a stunning statistic, a la bob dole from another they send time. What is the issue to jumpstart the president s campaign . Marty i really dont know. I think he is searching for that issue because nothing so far has worked for him. I think with the polling over the weekend, which was prediagnosis but postdebate, his performance at that debate clearly hurt him among voters in america. Jonathan jonathan just looking for the tweet, and there is always a risk that you overanalyze some of the tweets, but there are about 15 of them on different topics, different themes. Military, vote, religious liberty, vote. So far, nothing on covid19. Is this the issue for this campaign right now . It is going to be very difficult to campaign on the other issues. Marty for sure. The public has a strange way of deciding what is the issue, as opposed to the candidates themselves. This virus overtakes everything, and his record on virus is not great, as many of us understand. , he ist he has the virus trying desperately to talk about anything else. It doesnt seem to be working. Lisa how do you think President Trumps joyride outside of Walter Reed Hospital over the weekend to visit his supporters from a closed car will play with his supporters . The supporters out in the street were probably thrilled to see him, but he is under tremendous criticism from the medical community and others for putting the secret service men in that vehicle let risk because hes clearly infectious that vehicle at risk because hes clearly infectious. Even if hes wearing a mask, that is a hermetically sealed car, and he could have endangered those secret service agents. Jonathan questions still remain about the protocol and whether it was followed, and when they found out about the positive test of hope hicks. Our very own Jennifer Jacobs broke that news. If she hadnt, who knows how this story would have rolled out into the weekend . What dont we know, and what do we need to know about what happened last week . Marty one of the most important things, and we are not getting any clarity out all, is when donald trump last week was tested, and what those test results showed. For instance, before he went on thursday to his fundraiser at bedminster, he knew hope hicks tested positive. But did he himself test positive at that point . The white house is not giving any clarity whatsoever on when donald trump was tested last week, and it raises the question, how regularly is he tested in general . Positivef he tested and went to these events knowing it is a serious breach. Tom you and i are of a certain vintage where we have been hermetically sealed since february. We are very fortunate to work for bloomberg, which is really done a great job within our headquarters here on Queen Victoria street and the rest. We understand that age issue. Number ofre x 70yearolds ill off of this shenanigans, that is bad odds for one of them, isnt it . Marty it is. 70 arenow, people over at a higher risk. It is also interesting to note that many of these Covid Patients show improving signs, and then days later essentially collapse. That is why this whole notion of donald trump being released from the hospital today seems like a fantasy to me, that doctors would allow that to happen. Jonathan i think. We all wish him the best. Marty i think we all wish him the best. Marty, thank you. The number of people that have tested positive within the campaign, his Campaign Manager also infected by all of this. We know that the first lady, of course, infected by covid. His debate coach, former new Jersey Governor Chris Christie as well. You go over the whole Campaign Strategy of last week going into that debate, there are a lot of key personnel facing trouble through the next couple of weeks. Tom axios this sunday, the surveys really well thees a lot of issues for president. Money may be an issue, that final dash, the millions needed to do the final messaging. I wonder if it is there. Jonathan speaking of money, can you imagine being at that fundraiser in bed been stirred, new jersey in bedminster, new jersey . It was chief of staff mark meadows that gave the timeline the hope hicks tested positive, and they knew about that test before they left for new jersey. So the president arrives there, knowing he has been exposed to coronavirus. The amount of questions that still havent been answered are key. It is key for the administrations messaging around the protocols, and what Everyday Americans should do if they are exposed to covid19, and the inconsistency of what the president and this administration did last week. Tom i dont know what it was like for Prime Minister johnson, but my recollection is it was a lot cleaner and clearer than this. He was atw serious saint stephens. Jonathan to be fair, there are some similarities, that this government tried to put a show of strength for the Prime Minister as well, and then things got dicey. We hope that is not the path ahead for the president. Tom we are at the halfhour mark. We havent even mentioned jonathan i know whats coming. Thats not how you pronounce it, and you know it. Thats next, here on bloomberg. Are you frustrated with your weight and health