I want to hear more of the music that was blaring in my ear. Heres where we are. Big out for big outperform are coming through, the s p 500 is up. The pound actually, as you can see now, positive, bouncing around all over the place, getting a negative hit earlier on around the idea that the u. K. Would walk walk away on the 15th. I dont think the market thinks either side will walk away. The eu said earlier on, and this was a report by bloomberg, the eu side is going to call the bluff on this. Britain saying were deftly going to walk away. The market is basically shrugging its shoulders. As you can see, a selloff in bonds is unsurprising, given whats going on at the moment. At the backend over the last few days, cathodes continue to steepen in the United States. Alix we did hear that music and you did an amazing job talking to that techno music. Thank you for that. In the u. S. , part of that is going to be about where we are and stimulus talks. Markets weighing down on the trump tweets yesterday to stop negotiating until after the election. Immediately after i win, we will pass a stimulus bill. Earlier today he went on to talk about cutting checks to people, 1200 right now if nancy pelosi was on board targeting the stimulus for a skinny bill. In europe its a different picture, fiscal spending continuing in spain, 72 billion euros over three years in an attempt to revive its battered economy. What we knowgh from spain and the lockdown situation with a growth aspect. You have the government unveiling this huge recovery package. They say they can get the economy back to growth by next year. The deficit is of course going to grow up, but they think they can get back to 7 , which by the way is huge, it takes spain back to 2011 levels. They believe 80 of the money coming from europe will help them to transform and modernize the economy. All of this looks very good, great on paper, but you have to factor here that this is a minority government that hasnt been able to improve to approve anything and their track record on the economy has been zero. They havent been able to do anything in three years in three years and the market has noticed that. Looking at the situation for the Prime Minister you could argue that it looks more stable on that front and that is already being reflected. Narrowing over the last two years. Clearly the market has noticed that this is a market turning from coronavirus with restrictions that are badly hit. Tourism, badly hit. With a big question as to whether they can get the economy to grow in just one year. You we are going to leave there, thank you very much indeed, maria. Case counts continue to climb, restrictions keep getting added, the Economic Data doesnt look particularly good. We did see good news on the stimulus front out of spain today, but that economy was hit credibly hard. Global Asset Allocation strategists joining us now to give us a take on all this. Sophie, im curious, we find ourselves in a situation where people are talking about wanting to invest in europe. That now is the moment to do that. Yet all i see out of europe is worse, restrictions continuing to be added and virus news just not Getting Better at all. Why is now the moment, if at all, to invest in europe . Is there a case to be made . At the veryooking shortterm outlook. If you think more about whats going to happen next year, the big question for investors at this point is already going to see this distribution of u. S. Assets . We started to see it [indiscernible] but we still have to see it. We think there is a building without an l shape as a baseline. What you need to think about is you will have a certain level of globalization that will push investors out of u. S. Growth and into other sectors of the region that are more attractive from a valuation perspective, but also bear a way through to the cycle. Alix i wonder what leads that, though. Is it that jobs program in europe, the lack of stimulus in the u. S. . What leads the conversation right now . Sophie i think the main, main argument behind this would be Economic Growth. In the view that there will be this gradual recovery. There are three main rationales for that. The first is that you see some kind of caps ration on european assets. I guess its the first time in a few years that we start to have questions on whether to reallocate out of u. S. Equities into european from our clients. Thats really a sign. The second thing would be the green deal recovery funds and the repatriation of issues. Thats a good sign. The third thing that is very important is the sector shift we have seen this year that gives more right more weight to growth equality sectors. You know, we are in this environment where we need safety portfolios and growth has become one of those. All stars are aligned for investors to warm up to the idea. Just like the strong euro in the quiteterm, we think it is attractive from that standpoint. Guy france downgraded its numbers last night. I will say downgraded numbers, but it was a big downgrade. Today weve got data from industrialom the sector that has been a beacon of strength that seems to suggest it is fading. Doesnt this argument that europe is cheap, doesnt it need to go handinhand with solid data that supports the idea that europe is recovering . Because those data are fading. Sophie the data are not going to be great anywhere in a third wave. It, are weg to merit going to have a vaccine or not . Are we going to know within less than 15 minutes that we will have confident notes . The two things to take into account will be a push through on the nomination. Its not as though we will have this vaccine or testing in five years and by looking through this, with the current level of casetion, its a building on top of the [indiscernible] at the moment. Alix where does that leave em . If we had to pick one, it seems like em makes more sense. Emerging markets, its more of a structural by for us. A longterm idea that we have the cant put it out on big tech into more with high components. We find it quite attractive in our multiasset portfolio. But it is clear that there is more concentration on europe rather than the yen in china, where it is more even that they will perform well in the long term, given, you know, the place of china within the em, asia in the benchmarks. A bit abouttalk whats happening in the United States . The stimulus story from the census, we are confused as to where whether we are going to be getting stimulus targeted or not on the side of the election. Lets talk about what happens on the other side. At the moment the polls are pointing to a joe biden when. Im wondering why the market win. Im wondering why the market is focused on the idea that there will be big stimulus with a biden win and ignoring the idea that it will be a significant hit on the tax front. Why are we focusing on the good news and not necessarily the risks to the market . In terms of what we think past election, in the shortterm in terms of election certainty where investors are in a profittaking wait and see mode, past election whats going to matter much more for the market is i think its a given that we are going to have rather easy fiscal support. Governmentsany doing fiscal tightening for the next two years. I think whats going to matter is which stage of the Economic Cycle are we going to be in . In our view it will be the early stage next year. Given that context, we think that whoever is going to be elected is going to be rather favoring equities versus sovereign bonds from an investment standpoint you place super yield curves higher with potential stories around in equities and bonds. We think its definitely a long equities, like higher equity indexes whoever is elected. In the short term they are clearly weighing on sentiment. Guy stick around, we have got much more to discuss. Some headlines just crossing over the bloomberg at the moment. This relates to sanctions that could potentially come out of the eu related to the novichok poisoning of a lexingtonalexey navalny. European partners suggesting sanctions targeting first the individuals, sanctionings targeting entities responsible. See exactly what the details are, but there is a real balancing act at the moment. Some within europe taking a more aggressive line. It will be interesting to see ultimately how it comes out. Brexit is next. Thats coming up. This is bloomberg. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi signaled to democrats that democrats are willing to pass a standalone Airline Relief bill. She spoke with Stephen Mnuchin a day after President Trump ended negotiations on a big stimulus package. Last week House Republicans blocked a democratic proposal to provide more than 28 billion dollars for airlines and contractors. Polish antitrust authorities have find a russian state energy giant went for building the nord toeam 2 two gas pipeline germany, saying it hurts polish consumers and increases european dependence on russia for gas imports. Bypasses traditional routes through ukraine and poland. We asked their finance minister about it. Its in our natural interest. Our idea is to be a reliable countries. European so, i believe we can manage to the necessary gas from the nord stream 2. A little bit nervous about our future. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Guy thank you very much indeed. The u. K. Government will apparently pull out of brexit trade negotiations with the European Union next week if there is no clear deal insight by the 15th. Thats according to a person familiar with the matter. The pound, bouncing around on the news. Is the 15th really a cutoff date for the u. K. . Will the eu try to call their joining us now from london to try to fill in the blanks, david. The European Union and u. K. Are trying to talk past each other to a certain extent on this. How significant is the 15th . Will talks continue after that date . David there will have to be some communication, but it is very significant, this moment. The deadline was set by the british side for a landing zone for the deal. Yesterday we reported that the eu had no intention of budging positions and today we reported that the brits are preparing to walk out in the next couple of days. A big breakdown at this point . That means no big comprehensive trade deal. There wont be time to ratify it by the time the transition ends at the end of december. However, there are still going to be a lot of things that can be sorted out. Fishing rights and the question of state aid. Maybe those wont be resolved, but other things will have to be communicated over the coming months. This is a significant moment, its the british side saying look, we are giving up on the idea of comprehensive trade benefits and we will have to come to some other arrangement. Companies and people are going to have to get ready and there will be a significant economic impact. And markets barely blinked. David, appreciate that. Sophie, why isnt this priced into the market . I think we are at this time when we dont know when this is going to end. There are more important things to tackle with. If you look in terms of the u. S. Election, that is a much more important market mover. At pricing,ou look the sterling is really cheap in terms of u. K. Manufacturing standpoints. We have some in the asset portfolio geared towards a recovery in china rather than a big conviction. Stay away from u. K. Small caps. Apart from this not having like any u. K. Sterling exposure from the current point, that is still there. It is already in the mindset of the investors for those who are now waiting for the brexit news to settle down before triggering investment ideas on assets. Talking more broadly about europe, if you could get a brexit deal done, even a skinny deal, something that allowed the two to coexist, is that another reason to want to own europe . If you can take the risk off the table, is that a reason to put money on this side of the atlantic . Definitely. Part of this is 2021, before the german and french elections in 2020 2, 2021 will be clear in terms of the the economic background and the lack of Political Uncertainty at this point. The fact that you know there is strengthening of currency already that is passed us. So, no headwinds. You really have a case for Global Portfolio with more exposure to european assets. On the flip side, though, if we do get a crash out, how can you make an aggressive case for purchasing assets when it will affect europe as much as the u. K. . Sophie i think it will be a more shortterm impact. In terms of growth i think that the is going to matter is rhetoric of are we going to have [indiscernible] if theres a belief that there wont be an lshaped recovery, having something in the portfolio makes sense. At the same time, despite fiscal monday or did he, risky assets still make sense. The valuation on big tech is becoming a stretch. You have a sense of Economic Growth reallocating into cheaper sectors and regions. For yourie, thanks time today and your analysis. Iq. This is bloomberg. Thank you. This is bloomberg. Today we will be getting the minutes of the Federal Reserve september meeting. The ukrainian federal governor spoke to bloomberg earlier today about how those moves will weigh on his own policy. Fed, they and the have done and presented measures to support the economy. Strategicsome of this , the measures, these strategic measures have never been implemented before. So for us its really important it willn example of how work around the world incorporation with the government around the world as well. Try to fight, to help the local economy. Some of these measures we may use also. Some of them, unfortunately, we cant use. Alix, the world watches with interest as the big Central Banks are trying to figure out exactly what their policy is going to look like Going Forward from here. The ecb is undecided. Debate within the central bank, frankfurt, about the direction to take. It was interesting, listening earlier on to the bundesbank, saying they dont need more policy now. Others suggesting that more qe is on the way. We get the fed minutes tonight. Are we going to get a clue as well as to kind of what the mechanisms are for raising rates . I still dont understand how exactly this will work. Alix im going to say no to that, but thats my personal opinion. I think that what we will see is any dissent. There seems to be an evolving conversation there and you have to wonder what it is like within the fed as well in terms of using the Balance Sheet more aggressively and allowing inflation to stay above the 2 level for a significant amount of time to see what the consensus is or not. Guy powell was aggressive, saying dont worry about doing damage now, do it and worry about it later. He was worried about the fact the stimulus talks would be off. Where they aree right now. Its look, guys, we are struggling over here, youve got to deliver it if you dont, the economy is going to suffer . Alix and what else can they do . If it goes back to the fed, what can they do for the people without jobs. As they say, a lender, not a spender. Europe didnt have to deal with the moves that we got yesterday in the states caused by the president. The closes next, dealing with the details that we have going on. This is bloomberg. So youre a Small Business, or a big one. You were thriving, but then. Oh. Ah. Okay. Plan, pivot. How do you bounce back . You dont, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. Powered by the largest gig Speed Network in america. But is it secure . Sure its secure. And even if the power goes down, your connection doesnt. So how do i do this . You dont do this. We do this, together. Bounce forward, with comcast business. Guy 30 seconds until the end of regular trading in europe during did not see the volatility in the trade we saw in the United States as a result of the president s tweets. We did fade early, but as everett sees it seems european equities trapped in a tight range. Down. 1 . We are looking for a sense of direction. Clarity and understanding as to where we sit with the stimulus story in the United States. It appears to be a major catalyst. In terms of the currency markets, given i on the pound. It is rallying relatively hard, pushing up through the 1. 29 level. Reporting seems to be that Michel Barnier does not believe the 15th. Ill work on there does seem to be a suggestion that the u. K. There is also the idea the u. K. Would have its bluff call if that is the case. I think the market is looking past all of this. The Michel Barnier headline providing upside move. The ftse barely budging all day. Tight ranges. You can seat in the dax and the cac 40. It dates back to august. The industrial sector has seen an area of strength for europe. Spanish stimulus bill today. Theoretically good news, but the spanish economy is suffering. New restrictions around europe, even in germany. There will be closing bars. Italy making masks mandatory. The coronavirus stories front and center. The data is starting to disappoint. Lets take a look at individual names. I want to talk about the airline sector. Iag trading down not by much. We saw the u. K. Parking the idea. It will have an investigation into testing, which the industry markets,g on key particularly the transatlantic testing, Rapid Testing to get these routes open. The u. K. Not making a decision. That is disappointing news for that sector. Tesco up earlier but fading slightly. A big online push. A big u. K. Grocery business. Doing well in the Online Business during covid. That should improve margins. That was reflected in the numbers. Roches a number name worth focusing on, having housing issues with sending tests to the u. K. , which will further exacerbate the problems the u. K. Is having, which will writ large across the entire economy. News by 1 g on that in switzerland. Alix lets stay on european equities. One of the stories we are following is hedge fund lucerne capital. They are raising exempt get it theyre raising objectives to a plan to take the company private, saying the plan the firm beli