Absolutely extraordinary. Thank you for joining us on Bloomberg Radio and Bloomberg Television worldwide. What have we got . Mcdonalds just out with a dividend increase. Ibm with a seismic restructuring. Morgan stanley to take out the venerable eaton vance of boston. On and on we go. Guess what . None of it matters. Someone speaking to maria in two minutes. Jonathan the present will be on fox news. I imagine he will have a reaction to the next debate being virtual. That news out from the commission on president ial debates. Tom i really want to bring up this story, below the fold on the internet sites, but our Jennifer Jacobs reporting that the head of security for the white house is gravely ill with this horrific virus. Really a difficult illness as well. It is amazing how this virus story in the debate last night, commenting ondent this debate. Jonathan the president tweeting, saying that this is not a separable. He is looking forward to doing rallies. He is feeling goods. Those comments coming through in the last 60 seconds. Tom we will monitor that as we look at finance and investment around the world. So much of that is the hope of stimulus. Futures up 15. Dow futures up 200. We are roughly 3 below record highs on the dow. Frankly, it devolves to Speaker Pelosi and her conversation in hours with david westin. Lisa theres an increasing amount of uncertainty, messiness. It doesnt matter. Basically, heads we win, tails we went even more. That is the story and markets. Either there will be some fiscal story before the election, which a lot of people took off the table and brought back on, or there wont be anything, and if there is a blue wave, which wall street is pricing in, then people are expecting even bigger fiscal support package. Either way, people are seeing more fiscal support, and if there isnt any in the near term, they are expecting the Federal Reserve to step in with more asset purchases. Risk on despite the uncertainty. Very much looking to policymakers to fill any gaps. Jonathan theres the headline we were waiting for, tom keene. The president says he is not going to do a virtual debate. Makes it interesting, doesnt it . October 15, miami, florida. The commission out with a statement that that debate will now be virtual. It will take a town hall format. People will be in the room asking questions of the candidates. The two candidates, according to the statement, will not be there. The president says he is not going to do a virtual debate, which raises questions as to whether there will actually be one come october 15. Tom i think it is in the zeitgeist. Rumor, there are supposed to be two more debates to the end of the month. Some people have said it will be one more debate, with the president feeling better, and days on from his hospitalization at walter reed. But it really to me comes up, as lisa mentioned, the cacophony of news and the salvation for the markets, at least, away from the political process is just the idea of getting some form of stimulus and assistance. Thursday . Er it is in this hour, we will see if we are back to 800,000 or 900,000 jobless claims . Jonathan remember the bombshell report about tax returns . Im not even sure that was two weeks ago. I think someone came on the program and said, what a year last week was. That is what it feels like right now. The polls in the last 24 hours, former Vice President joe biden with an 11 point lead in florida. I know for everyone, that feels like a massive outlier. If your point lead in pennsylvania, a five point lead in iowa. This is from the new york times. A one point lead in ohio. In ohio in 2016, the president beat Hillary Clinton by about eight points. For the president , he needs to make an impact. This isnt just about national polls. It is about the swing states as well. As the states that Hillary Clinton lost by a narrow margin, pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, how did they make a difference in the next four weeks . If there isnt in the if there isnt a debate on october 15, how does he make an impact on the National Stage . Tom the president says he feels perfect, and also says he is looking forward to rallies. We see the president maybe doing rallies even though he says he wont do a virtual debate. To synthesize this into the markets, we are going to try to do conventional business here at bloomberg surveillance. Brent schutte joins us from northwestern mutual. What do i do with an investor who was in cash, knows he shouldnt be, or she knows she shouldnt be. How do they deploy cash given this news flow . I think i would start by telling investors they should never overemphasize politics in their portfolio construction. If i take you back and pull you away from the emotions of politics, and certainly elections are important, but if you look us directly, to me, the bigger important part of what happens during an administration is what they inherit. What the inherit is a Business Cycle. Typically, if a president inherits a Business Cycle late in the cycle, the Federal Reserve is tightening and they have subpar returns. The average going back to 1960 is around 6 market returns if they inherit a Business Cycle with no slack left. On the other hand, if they inherit a Business Cycle that is either early or mid, the returns are much more. Indeed, there are 10 of those elections that occurred, and in each one of those at least nine of the 10, i should say, the returns of the administration with doubledigit, with returns around 14 . I think if we are coming out of recession, we are still at least early to mid, and the chances of having a decent market return are pretty good, especially when you consider that no matter who is elected, they are receiving a Federal Reserve that isnt tightening rates for as long as i can see. That is the one thing that will change. That is the certainty you have. Yes, the Federal Reserve does still have power over what happens in the markets. Jonathan how dependent do you think the fate of this cycle is on fiscal policy . Now, if weink right dont get a deal, the market will have some downside, but i dont think it is a dealbreaker. I heard lisa mentioned that after the election, you will probably get some. Thats a couple of months away. Theres still quite a bit of pentup income built up from the last stimulus. If you get positive news on a vaccine, i think a lot of those concerns go away because the market starts looking forward to what may happen in 2021. Stimulus is without a doubt important. It has filled the economic valley we thought tobit was going to cause. Then it comes to be spent in different ways, so you have an economy that is also adapted and shrunk the width of that valley. Important in the shortterm. It could cause a market downturn, but we are returning to where we were in march. Lisa just to be clear, i definitely wasnt saying that we are going to get stimulus early next year. Just that analysts are expecting stimulus early next year if we dont get one currently. Does the data matter at this point, given the fact that the virus continues to spread . We are going to get jobless claims in about 20 minutes showing another abnormally high jobless eating, even if it is down from earlier highs. It doesnt even matter does it even matter in the face of liquidity . Brent i think the thing lost in all of this conversation is the economy looks like a v right now. The estimate of thirdquarter gdp is 35. 3 quarter over quarter at an annualized pace. If that were to occur, the u. S. Economy would still be a pretty large number, but just 3 smaller at the end of this quarter than it was at the beginning of the year. I dont know many people who thought that was going to be the case back in march. One thing i think almost everyone missed with this is an economy adapts. We find new ways to do things. You guys have been mentioning miami. Maybe this is too corny, and i make letying to of the virus, miami was filled with milwaukee winners. I think you seen i was coronavirus, companies have learned how to serve their clients. Betainly there will industries left behind, but stronger sectors will pull the economy higher. Jonathan brent, fantastic to catch up, as always. And shoot their Brent Schutte there of northwestern mutual. Ibm to spin off their infrastructure her versus if Researcher Services unit. And we got this headline from the commission on president debates. The second u. S. President ial debate will be remote. We were waiting for the president s response. It took about 35 minutes and read as follows. The president wont do a virtual debate. October 15, miami, florida. We set at the top of the program, the moderator will be there. The candidates wont be. We understand that biden will be on the other side. The campaign saying now that the former Vice President looks forward to speaking directly to americans. The president says he wont. Tom i am going to suggest that this is not some thing about getting to october 13 or 14. Just through the day, we will see this debate move forward. I want to point out something that i think is so important in the secondary news. Mcdonalds raises its dividend. The chart of mcdonalds is absolutely extraordinary. For those of you on radio, it looks like a normal market because i guess everybody is buying mcdonalds. Have you ever had mcdonalds in america . Jonathan i have had mcdonalds. Not in america, though. In the united kingdom. I dont think for about 10 years, though. Tom when i am in london, i go to the mcdonalds at liverpool. Jonathan i know. I come with you and watch you there. Given all the is slow this morning, this has got to be the story of the moment, you having mcdonalds breakfast over at Liverpool Street station. [laughter] formerment, rick davis, Campaign Manager. Ritika next weeks president ial debate is up in the air. Earlier today, the commission put together changes for the format to have the candidates in separate remote locations. That is to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. Now President Trump says he Wont Take Part in a remote debate. Meanwhile, Vice President mike pence and Kamala Harris squared off insult lake city. Not surprising insult lake city in salt lake city. Thats a presently, the first question had to do with coronavirus. Sen. Harris you respect the American People by telling them the truth. The things that they need to hear to protect themselves. E when i look at their plan that talks about advancing ,esting, developing ppe creating a vaccine, it looks a little like plagiarism, which is something joe biden knows a little bit about. Said zpence pence says trump has put the health of the American People first. Haves says that they forfeited their right to reelection over the handling of it. Asset stanley has bought manager eaton vance for 7 billion. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Sen. Harris the president s trade war with china, he lost that trade war. What ended up happening is because of a socalled trade war with china, america lost 300,000 manufacturing jobs. Vp pence lost the trade war with china . Joe biden never fought it. Joe biden has been a cheerleader for communist china over the last several decades. Jonathan from new york and london this morning, good morning. Alongside tom keene and Lisa Abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Hourews flow in the last absolutely incredible. The price action looks like this. Equity futures at session highs this morning, up 0. 6 . Just 50 of the picture, thats what this is. Stimulus talks starting to be productive. This from the president of the United States. Might lead you to believe it is just about airlines. He says that is being discussed, but a bigger relief deal is as well. I am keen to point out and emphasize this is 50 of the picture because it is only one half of the deal. We have to see what Speaker Pelosi has to say about this as well. Arguably it is only 1 3 of the deal because we have to hear from Senate Majority leader Mitch Mcconnell as well. Equity futures getting a list off the back. Tom s p futures up 19 as we speak. , 27. 71. Came in abruptly right now we will rip up the script and rip it up again with rick davis, formerly the Campaign Manager manager for senator mccain of arizona and a bloomberg contributor. What is the Debate Commission like . How do the candidates and their staff like you go back and forth with the debate conditions . Are you the boss, or is the Debate Commission the boss . Rick it is a hard answer because no one is the boss. The Commission Sets up the rules, picks a bunch of sites, then they sit down with the nominees of the party years in advance start negotiating. Out of that negotiation comes some version of that schedule and those rules. Are of those negotiations directly between the two candidates. We had Lindsey Graham as our negotiator, and rahm emanuel was the negotiator for barack obama. We got so frustrated with the Debate Commission we decided we were just going to do the debates ourselves. Then we decided the logistics were too much, and went back to the commission. But the rules are meant to be standardized, in that you then create a memorandum. Tom that is brilliantly explained. Huge public value. It is not a standardized time. As president , what is his power and with hisdate, visibility and vocal treatment, what is his ability to change the commission or make a more malleable process to get his outcomes . And you can always say no, that is what the president is saying this morning. I would say the Debate Commission would never have announced that they did agree on a virtual debate unless someone in the Trump Campaign said yes to that. So this is another example of donald trump not being connected to the leadership of his campaign, and now going rogue on the Debate Commission, and probably divide in campaign because the Biden Campaign would haves probably the Biden Campaign because the Biden Campaign would have signed off on this, too. We didnt want to do a debate because of logistics. It was on the other cited the country, and we were trying to campaign. On us tos pressure participate forced us to do a virtual debate, where we were on different sides of the country. For my purposes, that was a disaster. Jonathan to jump in, some response from the campaign i want to bring to our audience very quickly. They will pass on the sad excuse for a debate. The campaign will hold a rally instead of that remote debate. So it looks like the president and the team are on the same page here. With this perspective coming in from fox news, with biden having a 53 40 3 nationally, where do you see the polls right now . Tom just curls up into a ball, thinking about for years ago. What are they worth right now . Rick first of all, polls are a static picture. They are not dynamic. They dont take peoples opinions over time. They take them in one instance. So they are only accurate that day. In a campaign that is moving around, like four years ago when you had all of these massive wax want events in october massive black swan events in october, whether it was the access hollywood video, the development from comey, they only give you a snapshot. We know that biden has some momentum, some Movement Towards him since the last debate, including the period of time that the president contracted covid, and it looks like some of that movement is in a new voter group, not just suburban women, but white males. That is a signal to trump that he may have a problem with his base. Lisa how much momentum did mike pence give to the Trump Campaign last night . I think think rick he stabilized the Trump Campaign. Think about what has happened in one week. The trump debate was a disaster for donald trump. He almost immediately contracted covid, and then he blew up his own negotiations over the stimulus. That is one week. That is an amazing amount of activity. I think last night, what mike pence did was something the campaign hasnt been able to do before with the candidate, and that is stabilize the debate. His set of facts, his diagram of where the country is headed is exactly what the Trump Campaign has been selling, and he did a good job delivering that. Jonathan just to wrap things up quickly, we had former new york mayor Rudy Giuliani on the program yesterday. He came out swinging. What we see today is the campaign coming out swinging against the Debate Commission. This is that classic siege mentality in the final few weeks of the campaign. Everyone is against us. Is this a strategy that is going to work . Is it working . Rick bunker is a very nasty place to have to occupy, and that is where the Trump Campaign is right now. Not only is their top leadership out with covid, but the polls are turning against them. One thing that sort of defies that is the nimbleness, or lack thereof, of Donald Trumps addressing the stimulus negotiations. 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