Open. We are seeing curve flattening in the bond market, although btps moving earlier on out of coming from the ecb suggesting that stimulus may not be forthcoming in the near future. The cable rate also tracking lower as well, 1. 2911. Still north of 1. 29, but yesterday we were north of 1. 30. We are down by 0. 8 . Alix lets get back to the virus resurgence in europe. Italy reporting over 8800 new cases yesterday. Leaders from the u. K. , germany and france all weighing in. For londoners and to all who work in our great capital, i want to say thank you for what you have done to suppress the virus once. We now all need to play our part in getting the virus under control once again. I am convinced that what we do and dont do now in the weeks that are coming will determine how we get through this pandemic. We can see that the curves and the infection figures are pointing upward, and some cases quite quickly. A government which is absolutely committed to be divided, that is what the Business People want. If we need to act in order to hold the spreading of the virus. Alix joining us with more from london, carsten nickel, managing director at teneo, and ben page, ceo of ipsos mori. Can you walk me through the studies you are doing with that . Ben we are doing a number of studies. The largest 1 [no audio] with a volunteer. We tested them for the presence of the virus. We have now been doing this since may. We have been able to see instances of the first lockdown working, but also the disease coming back. The wave, between half to 80 of people with the disease do not have any symptoms. It does mean that they could be out there spreading it, and of course, the return of students to universities in britain has seen a massive resurgence of the disease, even though many of those students will not exhibit any symptoms. They can spread it to the older population. Guy before we bring in carsten, ben, are the measures that are being taken by governments necessary . Are they sufficient . Will we need to go further, judging by the data you have seen thus far . Ben i am not an epidemiological expert, but it does look like with the new measures amounts measures announced, i would expect the government wants to see how those work. Theres a lot of noisy voices on social media, but overall, we have found that 45 of the public find the measures the government has taken so far are not strict enough, and only 15 are complaining about lockdown and the impact on the economy. So people are very cautious, rightly or wrongly, and they will do what it takes. 68 to 70 say they support the luck in areas where they live, and now we will get one in london. Alix carsten, if you could weigh in on this, what should we be seeing in terms of leader coordination . I wonder what we need to see from european leadership as a whole to clamp down on this. Carsten i think coordination is the key aspect not just on the european level, but actually within individual states, individual countries. I think the thing that we really need to keep an eye on increasingly is not just these questions of where we are in epidemiological terms. All of that is very important, but to me, the key question is the capacity on the local level to keep lockdowns local, to provide the required economic support on the local level while other parts of any given country amain open and may require set of economic support measures to put the economy to sleep. So how do you coordinate between different local policy regimes within one nationstate . That is really the question we need to watch over the days and weeks to come. Guy what do using the longterm applications of a disunited europe and disunited countries are . In the u. K. , i cant renumber a time when i felt this country more disunited, and i am wondering whether that has longevity, whether that is something that is going to disrupt politics in the medium to longterm. What do you think the effect will be . Carsten the most important thing is that this crisis occurs against a backdrop of already increased polarization, this populist wave we have seen over the last couple of years. Love that is something we need to keep in mind. In the medium to longer term, we get the economic consequences of that, and one thing we need to keep a close eye on is the fact that antisystem politics, populist politics, polarization starts off already from a much higher level before this virus, and it might be a risk that this gets further pushed by this Current Crisis we are in. Alix here in the u. S. , it has been very fractured in terms of different measures different states have but on, in particular the desire to wear masks. That has become so much of a political issue. I wonder, when you do your market research, is it the same in the u. K. And where you are surveying . Is it a little different on the ground individually . As polarized as the americans, and today, although 65 of the british say the country is more divided than in the past, when we were rallying about brexit last year which, we used to get bored about brexit. Now i wish we had brexit to deal with. Actually, in our polling globally, the populist side until covid has been going backwards. I think the difficulty and the challenge is, and we have already heard about divisions over masks come over different measures in different parts of different countries, the difficulties of the economic consequent as of the pandemic, it is almost too soon to know what the consequence is will be. It took four years after the Great Recession of 2008 and the great crash to start to see the emergence of populism as people in many western countries saw their future. 45 of the population expected their children to be poorer than them. How this plays out in politics, i think we are too close in the trees at the moment to see the forest. Carsten, just one final question in terms of the money that surrounds this issue. We have been waiting for europe to get its act together to deliver the rescue fund that the markets have already largely priced in. Virushe resumption of the and the huge case counts we are seeing in europe spur further action . I am wondering whether european leaders and deliver more as a result of the incredibly difficult financial state that many of their economies now face. Carsten i think the more immediate question to me his will that increase the sense of urgency in the talks that are actually currently still going on about finalizing that eu Recovery Fund. Maybe it has been a little bit out of the spotlight, but there are still talks going on between the German Council president and the European Parliament to make sure we can start spending that money at the beginning of next year. Once we have the green light for that, i would expect some difficult political talks about the formulation of a National Recovery plan that capitals need to send to brussels. Even if we are assuming that we want to spend the money that leaders have already agreed on the summer, there are still some political risks around that before we even make it to the question of whether there is potentially more that we can spend. Are some breaking headlines coming out right now. Coming from the European Council building in brussels, eu leaders including their brexit discussions. Eu leaders asking the u. K. To make necessary moves for a deal. I think we are largely talking about state aid. To continue talks with the u. K. Remember, Boris Johnson indicated he will wait until friday evening before deciding whether or not he feels that sufficient progress has been made to continue. We will move on to this subject in just a moment. Carsten nickel and ben page will be staying with us. Brexit next. This is bloomberg. There is so much happening in the world. How can the United Kingdom and the not be able to reach a deal and the eu not be able to get you not be able to reach a deal . Guy the eu now concluding brexit discussions in the council meeting. They have asked shel barnier to continue talks asked Michel Barnier to continue talks with the u. K. Carsten, let me start with you. Is this a political decision now as to whether or not we move forward . Carsten maybe not today. The question of whether we are moving forward now might not yet be a political decision because we are again nearing the cliff edge, but i think the truth is three, foure two, weeks of time. Justow, i think we are giving the technical talks more time. Understand, do the british citizens what do they want right now . Ben they are divided. They want to get it over and done with. They were very angry by the end. F 2019 people were just fed up with all of the arguments about brexit. People want a deal. They are pessimistic about what the deal will be. Both the ftse 500 and the general public are expecting it to worsen consumer protections. They just want to get it done. So they are not optimistic about what sort of deal we will end up with at the moment, but maybe they can pull something out of the bag. Guy it is europe. Everything is done at the last minute. What kind of deal do you think we get the last minute . Carsten i think we have seen the growth contours of this coming together for several months now, and it will be a very basic deal. Zero tariffs, zero quota. What we need to see in these talks over the next couple of days and weeks is movement on these tricky questions of fisheries and state aid. I think those are basically the last things where we need to see the relevant movement. But lets be clear, the ultimate deal we are going to get from a business perspective on trade between the u. K. And the eu is going to only do so much in terms of actually keeping border controls and barriers low. We are going to see a worsening of the situation as of next year on that front, even if there is a deal. Alix does it have the same impact as the shock that it was in 2016, whether you have mini deal, another version of a deal, for no deal at all . Carsten with the Withdrawal Agreement in place, you could argue that the most destructive consequences that we feel back then of a no deal without a Withdrawal Agreement, that has arguably been taken off the table, although the internal markets feel that we have raised question to the degree of which the u. K. Government wants to comply with the Withdrawal Agreement in a no deal scenario. At the same time, lets not forget we would be off to a very talksart for a decade of that we are going to see in all sorts of regulatory sectors anyway. In that sense, the question of no deal still matters. Guy can we talk a little bit about what is happening in scotland . Fishing seems to be front and center right now. It is a relatively small part of either sides economy, but important for scotland. Scotland obviously didnt vote to leave the european union. What is the view in scotland of the deal that is to be done on fisheries . If people will be positive it is good for scottish fishermen, but the bigger issue now is a very low opinion of Boris Johnson and the conservative party currently. Only 14 are satisfied with the prime minister. 72 satisfied with nicola sturgeon. Nearly six out of 10 scots have told us they would vote to leave the United Kingdom, and they would like another referendum next five years. One of the unforeseen consequence of brexit could be the fracturing of the United Kingdom itself. We havent even gotten to Northern Ireland, where they are very clear and immediate problems stemming from moving food into the market from england into Northern Ireland under the current arrangements between brussels and london. Specifically, tariffs and moving food from england to Northern Ireland. Happens, more and more difficulties. So we are nowhere near out of the woods on any of this. Guy how disunited does the u. K. Feel to you and to the people you are talking to . And are we seeing the virus and brexit basically pushing in the same direction to fracture the union . Ben certainly for scotland, they feel that the local governments, the Scottish Parliament is handling it better than the parliament in westminster. Brexit is unpopular in scotland, and you have a sort of perfect storm. If you look at britain as a whole, we are less divided then when we were fighting over brexit. Covid has actually united the country. We are now starting to see that haveuring, but what we also seen in france, new zealand, italy, germany, a rally around effect in the first part of this year in response to a national crisis, which is a very different state of affairs. So it is only now that we are starting to see these voices again. We will see what happens next and how we get through the second peak. Alix as a similar situation in europe, there seems to be one sort of united policy when it cames shutting things down and then reopening. When it came to shutting things down in the reopening. What is the relationship like as france continues to dig in on the fisheries issue . What is the fracturing there . Carsten you could look from this perspective and say the french are playing extreme hardball because of their exposure on the fisheries front, while the germans would ultimately prefer a deal here. That is true. But at the same time, lets keep in mind that of course, from the german perspective, it is very important to guarantee the integrity of the Single Market because yes, trade with the u. K. Is important. Around 7 of german exports go there. But if you are a country that does 60 of its exports into the Single Market, speaking of germany here, then brexit ultimately puts you in a position where you have to choose. I think that choice has been made early on in that brexit germansto a degree that will either have to take the french concerns into account. So i think we are really facing a balancing act here between not pushing the british side too far from the european perspective, while at the same time making sure that you are still speaking to the domestic intricacies, and that includes fishermen. Alix i want to avoid brexit conversations, but i cant anymore, but i really enjoyed this one. Thank you. This is bloomberg. Ritika its time for the Bloomberg Business flash. Another record low for Mortgage Rates in the u. S. , theding to freddie mac average loan has dropped to a little over 2. 8 , the 10th record low this year. Mortgage rates have been below 3 since july. Applications for Unemployment Benefits in the u. S. Next actively rose to the highest levels since august. Initial jobless claims in state 898,000, up totaled 53,000 from the previous week. To 10uing claims fell million. That may reflect people running out of state benefits and moving to a federal pandemic program. Another sign of how the pandemic is hammering the airline industry. Irish discount carrier ryanair is slashing its schedule and cutting back its presence in several countries. The airline says it will operate at about 40 of its winter capacity from a year ago, down from a previous plan to run at 60 . That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Guy ryanair one of the best capitalized businesses in europe. Other businesses taking that news pretty hard. It was interesting to see lufthansa coming down pretty sharply. In many respects, it is the Biggest Airline in europe, and it looks as though things will get tougher. The company basically saying, you get more lockdowns at potentially these cuts could get even worse. There are stories in the u. K. That italy, for instance, is going to be added to the quarantine list over the weekend, so you will have to quarantine when you come back from italy. There arent many places left you can go in europe if you are traveling out of the u. K. Alix didnt macron Say Something like stay in your homes, but also make Holiday Plans . A little confusing. For the airlines in the numberslta airlines cannot tomorrow, and united saying Business Travel will return to normal in 2024. Can you survive until 2024 . How many people can take early retirement or furloughs to survive until that picks up . Guy certainly on the trans atlantic routes, that was absolutely critical for making money. U. S. Airlines probably have less exposure to that than some of the european airlines, but that is a long way off. A lot of these businesses are catering to leisure travel, and that is going to be a tougher story because the margins are absolutely tiny compared with the Business Travel margins at the front end, and we are still waiting for potential more aid to come out of washington. We continue to watch that story very closely, as we have been doing for days and days. Earlier,aid a little the markets not moving much on it. The ftse 100, dax, and cac 40 all down today. Details to follow. The close is next. This is bloomberg. Guy 30 seconds until the end of regular trading in europe. What a session. Equity markets moving to the downside. Cap lower first thing and then drifting sideways. No sense of recovery or sense of a buying of the dip. Look at the individual markets. The dax was down around 3 . We have pulled up a little bit. We are only down 2. 63 . Certainly a negative session as we continue to see the virus wreak havoc both in terms of its human cost and the financial cost across europe. That was being priced in today. We have restrictions in france being tightened, restrictions in the u. K. Being tightened. , thetse 100 down 1. 8 pound down sharply. That protecting the ftse 100, the cac down 2. 2 . The early the oil stocks are down, the auto stocks are down. Not a single sector to be found in positive territory. Lets talk about what is happening with brent. It is off its lows. Earlier on it was down more sharply. A similar story with the wti contract. That has rippled through into similar sectors. We are seeing oil stocks and oil majors adding weight to the downside. In terms of other Asset Classes we have been watching carefully, the currency market has been important. We have seen dollar strength. 1. 30. Ble rate now below the brexit angle to all of this. We are watching closely what is happening i