Meetings. Says the talkso are likely to include discussions on how free nations can Work Together to handle threats from china. The vatican is staying notably silent after pope francis appeared to back samesex civil unions. The comments made during an interview for a new documentary reportedly took even the most senior levels of the Catholic Church by surprise. Popeses per spokesperson has not returned emails or calls looking for clarification on the comments. Many are wondering if they indicate an official change in church policy. Global news 24 hours a day, onair, and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. Vonnie it is 1 00 p. M. In new york, 6 00 p. M. In london, and 1 00 a. M. In hong kong. Im vonnie quinn. Welcome to bloomberg markets. Here are the top stories we are following on the bloomberg and from around the world. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says a stimulus deal could be close at hand. Add the ardennes he says forget the stimulus, we should be focused on stopping the spread of covid19. Our interview with him next. Contested 2020 president ial election. Both parties have been prepping racehe possibility as the hurtles toward the finish line. We will speak to Richard Pildes. Look atis hour, we will how investors are trying to get an edge by analyzing the physical destruction of climate space. Lets get a quick check on the markets. We have not seen too Much Movement in the session. The equity indices, it is mixed. The dow and the s p 500 up. 2 . The nasdaq is down. 2 . Vix still elevated at 28. A little bit of selling off in treasuries on the 10year. 84 basis after some mixed iles ofc data including p firsttime claims. Now lets get to the Supreme Court. Amy Coney Barrett has moved to the floor part of the senate vote. Mitch mcconnell says they will be in session over the weekend to discuss that. Lets get to Richard Pildes of New York University talk about those issues that might arise, not only with a nineseat court, but leading up to the election. We obviously have amy Coney Barrett going through, we have a nineseat Supreme Court. What are the issues you see coming up before the court in the next couple of weeks . Richard the next couple of weeks . That is interesting. Challenget case is a to the obamacare statute. A lower court basically invalidated the statute on a technical ground. The case is before the Supreme Court. The democrats have certainly played up that case during confirmation hearings. Another case involves the census about whethertion the National Government will be able to provide information to states and local governments about noncitizens providing information about small persons. That has all sorts of ramifications. That is another issue that the court will be looking into. Of course, one of the looming questions is, with all the litigation we are having around the election, are there going to be election cases that come to the court after the election . An enormous issue, if that turns out to be the case. Vonnie presumably, they would take precedence, if suits are brought on behalf of donald trump or joe biden, they would go to the front of the line. Richard they would go up through the system, the system will process those incredibly quickly, and we may pass by one stage in the process. Those cases cannot start in the Supreme Court. They will start in a lower Federal District court, but they will zoom through the system because there is obvious tremendous urgency, as there was when the Supreme Court was involved in getting those issues worked out. Know that there are potential problems when it comes to the amount of justices on the Supreme Court. We are not sure but joe biden may change the number if he becomes president. How easy would that be, and could he pick any number . Richard [laughter] i have never had the question asked quite that way. Have fullocrats control of the government, the political process, majority in the senate, house, white house, then they could in theory do something that fdr tried and failed to do in 1937, which is pack the Supreme Court, add justices to the Supreme Court. They could do that through ordinary legislation. They would have to survive the filibuster to do that. Perhaps they will eliminate the haveuster, if they dont 61 seats in the senate. Joe biden has indicated some hesitation about doing this but there is a lot of pressure toward doing this. We are in an unfortunate place with the court, which is we have been in this downward spiral in which one side breaks some sort of norm, the other side breaks another norm. Packing the court is not something that has taken place since the civil war. We have been at nine justices since then. Backlashempt, which against him politically, kept president s away from this since then. The movement to do this now is certainly more intense than it has ever been given both the Merrick Garland episode, and this current confirmation process. We will see what happens, including how the Court Decides major cases in the early part of a biden presidency, if we end up with one. Vonnie there is even a suggestion now that seats could be taken away. Presumably, that would be more difficult. Richard definitely. All federal judges have life tenure. Anything that compromises that tenure, such as removing seats from the court, would certainly be challenged in the courts. There has been less talk about removing justices than there has been about adding justices to the court. Teachinghen you are your students, what is the constitutional question that is what is the constitutional precedent in case law that is most at risk here . Richard i think the first answer i was going to give you to the question is, of course, students are overwhelmingly focused on the election, legal, constitutional issues around the election. Particularly after the election, if we end up in some sort of conflict and dispute that goes to the court. That would be number one. Then i think it is the hot button cultural issues that students are more focused on, whether that is the abortion lgbtq rights of individuals, antidiscrimination statutes, regulating the political process, finance reform. If the Biden Administration wants to come in and do that with congresss support. Front, the election is and center in every law students mind, and in the mind of my students. We are talking exactly about these issues. Vonnie thank you for joining us, Richard Pildes. Coming up, u. S. Stimulus talks ongoing but there are still significant policy differences, according to larry kudlow. We will discuss next with ed yardeni of your denny research yardeni research. Vonnie this is bloomberg markets. Im vonnie quinn. Says Speaker Nancy Pelosi she and treasury secretary mnuchin are just about there on a deal for coronavirus relief. Warning, larry kudlow on foxbusiness that they are still significant policy differences between the two sides. Despite the investor focus, our next guest believes there is not a need for more stimulus, but what we must do is slow the spread of the virus. Ed yardeni joins us now to discuss. I dont think anyone will disagree with you on the virus, we all want to slow the spread i guess some would disagree with you. But what about the bond markets . We saw a big move on a day that we saw the claims coming down. Ed this has been going on the past few days in the bond market because they are expecting one way or another there will be a stimulus package. If not before but after the election. I think the bond market is discounting that possibility. Meanwhile, the fed keeps buying lots of bonds, trying to keep the yield below 1 . It has been an interesting tugofwar between the bond market and the fed. Vonnie are you anticipating that we will see anymore big moves . You say the big moves have been going on but we have been a range of the 10 year between 70 and 85 basis points forever. Thathere is a possibility if stimulus finally gets through, that perception will be that the economy is doing reasonably well. Now it will be even stronger. That could push the bond yield about 1 . Then i think you will see the fed come in and officially announce what they call yield curve targeting, which is a euphemism to say that they are going to do everything they can to keep a bond yield below 1 . They may announce a target of 0. 5 percent, 0. 75 . Vonnie a target between. 5 repeat . Ed if the bond yield moves above 1 , the fed will be very concerned. Housing has gotten a tremendous lift from Mortgage Rates. I will not be surprised if the fed announces a target range of 0. 5 percent to 0. 75 . Vonnie that would be a phenomenal event if that would happen. Lets underline this. We would never have seen ending like that before. Would inflation concerns go out the window, and would everybody just undo their inflation hedges . My we have not seen it in lifetime in your lifetime, but in world war ii, there was a deal between the treasury and the fed, where the fed attacked shortterm and longterm rates close to zero. It was not until the early 1950s that the fed got out of that deal and said we are not going to peg the bond yield anymore. There is a precedent for this. The fed has actually discussed it in their june 10 minutes. They discussed the possibility of doing Something Like this. Vonnie what about the fundamentals of the economy . At some point, we may get something below to trillion. It may not happen before the election, maybe january. What does that do for the run rate of gdp . Ed the run rate right now for the Third Quarter is 35 of an annual rate compared to a drop of 30 during the Second Quarter. It is unprecedented the kind of drops and increases we have seen in real gdp. I think we will probably settle 5 , andSomething Like then getting to something more normal. The economy has had a vshaped recovery right until april, according to the data we have on a regional basis. Vonnie what are you advising clients to do, if this is your base case . Ed i have been bullish for a long time and im advising them to stay invested in the market. To the extent they have had balance portfolios, doing stocks and bonds, they may want to reconsider the asset allocation. 60 Standard Allocation is equities, 40 bonds. I could see doing 80 equities, 20 bonds. Bonds are not that interesting here. They could actually hurt you if the bond yield goes up. But i think the fed will come in before too long, if that happens. Vonnie what corners of the bond market are you most interested in . We have been talking to a lot of people looking at the relative value of various credits at the moment, forward volatility, and so on. What is the barometer for you for what we will see creditwise over the next six months . Ed credit spreads are going to remain relatively narrow. Simply because the fed has announced ever since march 21 that they are going to backstop the credit markets. To the extent that you can get a good yield in the Corporate Bond relativelyh a Investment Grade reading, thats fine. It will be interesting to see what happens in the Municipal Bond market. If biden wins and the democrats sweep the washington political bondsplace, municipal could look pretty attractive to the extent that taxes would be going up, people would be looking for opportunities to invest in something that is taxexempt. Vonnie even if we dont get what the democrats want state and local government wise . They have insisted get something. Of course, if biden wins and the democrats come in, they can redo the whole deal and make sure that state and local governments get some of. Vonnie what is your consensus, does biden win, is there a blue sweep . Ed nobody knows. It is too close to call. Themis point, i am telling , the most important person in washington, d. C. Is not going to be trump or biden. It will continue to be fed chairman jerome powell. The fed is the key driver of the stock market. They made it clear they want to keep Interest Rates near zero for the foreseeable future. I think that matters more than who the next president is. If we have trump, more spending on infrastructure, if we have biden, more spending on infrastructure, the green nude deal, and taxes. That i dont think either one of them are going to get a recession. I am bullish on the market. Vonnie always fun to chat with you. Bond jolanta, ed vigilante, ed yardeni. Theng up, preparing for final debate between the president and joe biden. A lab report from the debate location live report from the debate location. This is bloomberg. Vonnie this is im vonnie quinn. Bloomberg markets. Im vonnie quinn. President trump and Vice President joe biden face of the final time in tonights debate. We are joined by Kevin Cirilli live from the debate site in nashville. Our people lining up, is there prep already . Kevin i have to admit, it is a much different vibe from the previous cycle. You dont have the usual pomp and circumstance that you usually anticipate with a debate. There are many precautions related to social distancing, less so here in tennessee then what we have seen in the country. The famed broadway in nashville is somewhat open for music, although with the beer restrictions in place. But without question, tonights debate is the final opportunity for President Trump to reset his campaign ahead of the november 3 election. Mind you, 40 million americans have already cast their ballot. Will likelyonight be foreign, especially since John Ratcliffe had a press conference yesterday announcing cyberattackd russia u. S. Voter registration. Expect that to come up, as well as economic stimulus. This as talks continue in washington with Speaker Pelosi saying she is doing everything in her power to get to some sort of deal with the white house. Leader mcconnell, that republican bill still feeling this week, but that was largely a symbolic move. Vonnie what are you hearing from aides in both camps . For example, the hunter biden story, the Rudy Giuliani story, and then you have President Trump releasing the 60 minutes interview. How much of that will eat up the policy air tonight . Kevin i recently spoke to someone from the biden campaign. There is a palpable level of angst that is expected this close to an election day. I spoke to tom perez the other day, and i said, what keeps you up at night . He said a deja vu of 2016. The polls look as good for joe biden as they did for hillary clinton. I also spoke with a source on the president ial Election Campaign and they say they are working around the clock to make up ground, they are adding events. Trumpnd point, in ivanka added an event with senator Marsha Blackburn of tennessee. The president himself will be participating in a local Small BusinessCommunity Roundtable this afternoon. This is the Fourth Quarter. This is the 2 00 warning essentially. That starts the night here in nashville, tennessee. And dont forget about the buzz around town. At the pancake factory this morning. There is going to be a mute button. A lot going on here in nashville, tennessee. The winner will already be declared the mute button or the Debate Commission for changing the format. Evan, thank you. Kevin, thank you. Tune in tonight for our special coverage of that final president ial debate. Timegins at 8 30 new york right here on bloomberg television. Coming up, how fiscal stimulus measures around the world are creating opportunity for investors. How and where, next. Meantime, look at the markets. Bifurcation of going on with the nasdaq flat, the s p and down up. Vix remaining elevated. The british pound back to just dollar. 31 per [ sigh ] not gonna happen. Thats it. Im calling kohler about their walkin bath. My name is ken. How may i help you . Hi, im calling about kohlers walkin bath. Excellent happy to help. Huh . Hold one moment please. [ finger snaps ] hmm. The kohler walkin bath features an extrawide opening and a low stepin at three inches, which is 25 to 60 lower than some leading competitors. The bath fills and drains quickly, while the heated seat soothes your back, neck and shoulders. Kohler is an expert in bathing, so you can count on a deep soaking experience. Are you seeing this . The kohler walkin bath comes with fully adjustable hydrotherapy jets and our exclusive bubblemassage. Everything is installed in as little as a day by a kohlercertified installer. And its made by kohler americas leading plumbing brand. We need this bath. Yes. Yes you do. A kohler walkin bath provides independence with peace of mind. Ask about saving up to 1,500 on your installation. Virtual appointments now available. Mark im Mark Crumpton with bloomberg first word news. A new stimulus package is insight. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi sounded an optimistic tone at her News Conference today. Pleased that we have reached have note we complete signed off on it but we are just about there. Resourceslocate the and the policies necessary to do that. Mark Senate R