Come on, jon. Theent an hour reviewing dynamics. Theres been a real deterioration. Mike Allen Publishing moments ago for axios, and he melds the two stories together. Hes focused on wisconsin and montana being those swing states with huge pandemic issues. Jonathan and yet, wheres biden and harris going to be this week . Biden in georgia, harris in texas. Who would have thought that was to the election, those are the two places they would be. Tom georgia has really been front and center. Londonitical analyst in Francine Lacqua mentions she is focused on george as well. Jonathan new restrictions across the continent, and what are we not talking about this morning . We are not talking about stimulus conversations. This market adjusting lower. Lisa perhaps you can blame the fact that we havent gotten a fiscal deal. Week, wasch a huge andt days to the election, the data does stay pretty soft. 10 00 a. M. , we are getting u. S. Newhome sales. Expect deceleration in the full number based not on a lack of people are rather saying in their homes, and want to buy them. If china stays on the trajectory where it is right now, it will surpass the size of the u. S. Economy within the next decade, so it is really important to see how they are going to get there. Also today, the senate is going to vote to confirm Amy Coney Barrett to the supreme court. Mike pence presiding over that despite the fact that five of his staff contracted covid. Interesting dynamic at a time of such a rapid spread in the pandemic. Jonathan then we can have talks about talks at some point later this week. Lisa i cant wait. 500, equity the s p futures lower. Early this morning, equities lower there as well. Byity futures down 30, off 0. 9 . In the bond market, yields back in three basis points. European government bonds rallying. Foreign exchange has Dollar Strength more broadly through g10. Some risk aversion this morning to kick off the trading week. Tom i dont want to oversell it. But i look at the pullback we are seeing in the market, and it nasdaqts you like the 100 to a center tendency of the recent volatility. Theres not a lot of gloom and doom. It is just sort of range bound centre tendency off this morning. Jonathan wejonathan . Jonathan we know what ben is going to say. Hes going to say buy. Lets bring even, been late lets bring him in, ben laidler. Why . Talki think all of this about fiscal stimulus has held people back. We are waiting for a vaccine. We dont have that yet. Lets get the election out of the way, and look forward. What does that look like . Get 25 Earnings Growth and these deep cyclical stocks that have basically been ignored, those are the big beneficiaries of the vaccine, which we are going to get something, some more fiscal stimulus, biden wins these area blue wave, the sectors of the market chair out of favor and have huge operating leverage to the base case scenario, and it hasnt really moved yet because i think people have been very distracted by the fiscal talk and the election and everything else. Tom the challenge of people trying to catch up with ben laidler is on an absolute and relative basis do you shift. Do you shift away from big tech completely, or do you do both together and still owned both areas . Downi think you bring those sort of quality growth, big tech, health care bids. But we are talking different instruments here. Tech is going to continue to look very good with these ,alance sheets, but absolutely the sector i am telling people to shift into, industrials, smallcap, real estate, a little bit of money is going to go very long way. This look at what is going on in thirdquarter earnings right now, which we are ignoring because theres a lot else going on right now. Hugee just getting operating leverage on the upside. Lisa theres the counterargument that the pandemic is accelerating and worsening dramatically in europe and in places in the United States, and that we are not out of the woods. Even if we get a vaccine, the rollout is going to become located, the efficacy is questionable. How do we stay in this environment . How long does that have to go on before you change your view . Ben i think the relative surprise which has given me a lot of hope has been the resilience of the consumer, the resilience of economic activity. Just u. S. Pmi for october last week up 55. Very expansionary. , retail sales, we are in pretty good shape here. Im not naive enough to think on forever, but the story so far has been one of extreme resilience. Think that can go forward a little bit further. At some point we do need some more fiscal stimulus come on we are seeing everywhere stimulus, and we are seeing everywhere that this is having less of an impact on economic activity. I am looking for a vaccine. I am looking for more fiscal stimulus, and i am looking for this second wave to have less of an impact than the first wave did. Futures ticking higher on the s p 500. The correlation between cases increasing in the United States and what you think happens with consumer engagement, how loose or tight will that be . Ben to my previous point, i think it is a lot looser than it was previously. We just learned to live with this to a certain degree. So again, i think the consumer is going to be pretty resilient, certainly for the next couple of months. At some point we are going to need more stimulus. We are going to need these cases to come down. But i think what we have seen so far is that we have a little bit of time here. Great to catch up as always. Staying bullish, ben laidler of tower hudson research. Heres a comment on italy, the latest on their partial lockdown. Ours and restaurants to shut at 6 p. M. Casinos, game rooms closing. It hellions are urged not to travel, not to invite guests at home. Shops can remain ash italians italians urged not to travel, not to invite guests at home. This has been a surprise to business. What do we know about s. A. P. Friday that we missed today . Jonathan downgraded their outlook. Cut up with the cfo earlier. Bizarre conversation. Uncomfortable,t that he wasnt unhappy with the numbers, and i said, i think anyone in the stock is going to be unhappy with the numbers. Are we going to see much more of that, lisa . Guidance from corporations that didnt end is a another wave of this . Lisa i think that is a really important question. If it is just plugging an economic hole and not actually acting to stimulate the recovery, that is a big difference, and it has a longer deleterious effect on the economy if it is just debt to bailout an economy hampered by the pandemic. Im not hearing a lot of projections about that going forward, and that is a big issue. Jonathan should we do the good news this morning . Thats the second reference to the fact that i was here a lot earlier this morning than i , for the European Market open show on bloomberg. Thats because mr. Miller sent me a quick text last week and coming, so i need you to cover my show. Now isave Matthew Miller a father. Tom and the guy has absolutely theed it because hes got candor from drug the kinder kindergeldand the going. You always name the child after the richest grandmother. [laughter] hes over there in the amand of immediate tiled in the land of immediate child tax exemptions. The kid gets a childcare allowance from day one. We would kill for that. Lisa here we have negative yields on children. Tom tom look at that, the kindergeld. Jonathan i think it is fair to say that, given matts spending this kidings engines, is born with a negative yield. Tom he wanted to name the kid harley. Toathan congratulations matt miller and their newly born daughter. From new york and london this morning, good morning. This is bloomberg. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says the chamber could pass a pen the mac relief package this week. Still, a deal with the white house remains elusive, and the republican led senate may not act before the election. Of moving each other the goal posts posts on the legislation. Isthe senate, a final vote set for today on Amy Coney Barretts final nomination to the supreme court. Chuck schumer accused republicans of using raw political power to get barrett confirmed before election day. The British Government is indicating it is optimistic about a trade deal with the european union. The latest round of talks between the u. K. And the eu has been extended into the middle of this week. Earlier this month, britain temporarily walked away from negotiations for a freetrade agreement. The coffee and matching to be is in talks acquired. Shares have more than doubled since march. The brand owns Buffalo Wild Wings and jimmy johns. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Rep. Pelosi they keep moving the goal posts. We want the sooner the better. We are making concessions, too. We dont even have the bill yet because we continue to make offer after offer, and nancy continues to move the goal posts. Jonathan back to back interviews on cnn over the weekend with nancy pelosi and mark meadows, white house chief of staff. How many times have we done this . Its boring, isnt it . On the s p 500, we are down 29, 0. 8 . A bid into the bond market. We give up some of that. 0. 1861 is your yield on the 10 0. 8161 is your yield on the 10 year. 1. 1820. Ar, a shout out to our colleague jen jacobs in washington, who is part time leading the track and Trace Initiative in washington, d. C. , the latest being mark office. Vp pences pentz inlose to mr. Ce inmity to mr. Pen outimity, as he campaigns of quarantine. Kevin cirilli joins us, our chief washington correspondent. Zeitgeist ways to go this morning. I want you to overlay these two big stories, your conventional politics with the pandemic that is worsening. How does the election change across the greater north midwest and mountain states . Kevin it doesnt. Justin traveling the past couple of weeks, there is a very different reality in those parts of the country outside of the coasts, where there is an acceptance of the virus and the risk that comes in terms of voting. Just to note the trajectory in terms of the polls in the early voting that we have seen, in contrast with democrats, you look at a state like texas and. Arris county, where houston is the mailin voting has skyrocketed, absolutely skyrocketed. I spoke with a democrat strategist last night who said to me the reason they are so bullish on texas, which behind the scenes, they are trying to quiet down some of the expectations, but it is harris county. When you look at the early returns and Something Like houston, it is why senator Kamala Harris is headed to texas, because they are thinking maybe we should do that, and there is a map of the early voting per state, and it is more than 6 billion in terms of how they are shattering records. Walkingare all one big cook political report. Cut to the chase. What did Kevin Cirilli learn about the 47 polls out there in the last 24 hours . What is your knowledge right now . Kevin i think the biggest unknown, this is really what it is, whether or not the mailin ballots simply mean that theres blue voters. That is the biggest unknown because as much as the president has criticized early voting, many republicans are looking at the virus and voting republican, but are casting mailin ballots for them as well. Pollsters inr the the data analysts to track whether or not early voting is going to necessarily mean democrats. The way they have been able to do it is by looking at traditionally democratic leaning parts of the state and suggesting that the early returns in those counties would mean a positive sign for democrats. Jonathan much has been said about the polls now and back in 2016, but will we did see but what we did see was some real momentum behind the president to close the gap to election day. We dont see that now, do we . Kevin they would say they have it. Democrats would say that they dont. In terms of the biggest unknown with regards to a flashback to 2016 and the Hillary Clinton emails, the letter that came out from comey and whatnot, that jolt ine a real seismic the final weeks of the campaign. I will tell you that the president s campaign has seized upon some local issues such as energy policy. They are blasting that in michigan, wisconsin, and pennsylvania. They feel that will be able to pick them up votes on lost grounds. Lisa control of the senate is very much at stake. You can see a tightening gap there, in terms of the odds, that there will be this blue wave that has been increasingly priced into markets. What is your sense of the theme . Republicans say they are registering more voters, more men who are white and have not gone to college, more likely to vote red down the ballot. How does that change the calculus on the senate front . Kevin that helps them in florida, north carolina, south carolina. Its very hard to understand whether or not getting people to sign up to vote is the same with Voter Engagement of folks that have already been brought in in the 2018 cycle because the democrats will push back on that data and say they have been able to mobilize voters ever since 2016. These numbers are so hard because both of the Political Parties are operating under their own metrics, so it is very difficult to understand from a comparative sense whether or not they are actual. In terms of the down ballot, for the senate and a blue wave, you look at the markets and how they priced in and started to recalibrate with biden bidenainty with certainty. Markets would view that as an asset. They would also view him much more to the center of someone bernie sanders. Beyond that, in terms of a blue wave, we just dont know. Someone like senator tillis, i am headed to capitol hill after this, of course, there is the acb confirmation hearing aid or this afternoon, all of those issues hearing playing out this afternoon, all of those issues factoring in. Jonathan great to see you this morning. Kevin cirilli, bloomberg chief washington correspondent, thank you. That get to that poll made so many headlines over the 4 . End, 46 40 lets get to a headline across the bloomberg. I know you have been following this story. It comes from m group from ant group, seeking to raise up to 7. 2 billion in the shanghai leg of the ipo. I should emphasize the last part of that headline. This is 17. 2 billion in the shanghai leg of the ipo. Tom what is so missing here, of course, is western capitalism. Jp morgan helping out on parts of this offer, but i like what the South China Morning Post says. They sum it all together with overallotment. It is a little bit of a statement there, but really something to see how this sums together away from wall street come away from the city. Jonathan Everyone Wants to know what you reduce Everyone Wants to know, will you reduce the cash allocation . Tom i need an entry point, of course. [laughter] jonathan from london and new york, this is bloomberg. Jonathan from london and new york, good morning to you all. This is bloomberg surveillance. We are live on bloomberg tv and radio. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Two hours away from the opening bell this morning, eight does away from wrapping up voting in the election in america. A cap lower overnight. We bounce back a little bit, down 30 on the s p 500. A week of losses last week. A few more losses this morning, down 0. 9 . Risk appetite taking a punch. Eurodollar down to 1. 1824. In the bond market, last week a selloff. We add 10 basis points to 18 year yield. This morning, a rally. We come down three points to 0. 8128 . First of all, a shout out to kathy jones of charles schwab, who dominated last weeks programming. It is the only thing i remember from last week was kathy jones playing the piano on this program. That says more about me than anything else. Kathy jones also had this to say on the bond market. I think 1 is probably the upper limit to where it can go from here. I think at that point, the fed may get somewhat concerned, and we might see some yield curve control or may a twist to put a cap on it. Jonathan that was the take from many people last week off of the back of that treasury market selloff. The question i ask repeatedly, how selflimiting would that selloff be . When with the buying start to come back in . This morning, the bid is back. Tom theres not a lot of hyperbole. We are rage bound we are range bound up at the higher end of the range. The only way i would go is to go to the dollar. Looking at the bloomberg dollar index, it is on support. Thats all it is. It has not broken through. Jonathan dollar stronger this morning. Keep going back to the euro. Eurodollar at 1. 18, given what europe is going through right now, i think it is really interesting. More restrictions this morning. Italy shutting things down, not completely, but in a bigger way. A curfew in spain. And a covering the lost momentum going into all of this, and rear pressure and real pressure building on the ecb again. Christine lagarde, going into this press conference thursday, i dont think this is an easy one for her. Kronaery simple, swedish stronger against the euro, but within the range, it is not excessive. I would go through this october is being range bound. Our next guest is very good at identifying new come out of those ranges. Jonathan we can bring in mike swell now. Mike, great to catch up with you. I am sure you heard a part of that. Can we start with the 10 year treasury range we have been stuck in for a number of months now . Do you think weve got the set up in front of us to break out of that . Mike i dont think i can match last weeks piano. That i can play a little kazoo for you, if that makes your week. [laughter] in terms of the range on the bond market, i think the death of the bond market rally has just been a story that has been written way too many times. Still yield. Theres still balance in fixed income relative to risk assets. As long as you have investors that need some level of diversification, as long as rates are zero or negative around the world, it offers balance to your portfolio and some hedge efficacy, and 80 basis points may not sound like a lot, but if it rallies from 30, that is a significant total return. I think people are writing off the bond market too early. For the value foreseeable future. Tom thats where i wanted to go, within the internals of the market. What do you see on your desk of the appetite o