Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Balance Of Power

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Balance Of Power July 12, 2024

The s p 500 below its 100 Day Moving Average, suggesting it could follow that the german dax below the 200 Day Moving Average. There is a bright spot. That is the fact we have bonds basically come at this point they are slightly lower. We have a haven bid. The dollar at the highs. The dollar had been appointed percent. 8 since june. Bonds have been higher, the best week since august. This week is shaping up risk off. Aix the public was david couple of questions. What is going on with volume and volatility . Abigail i am so glad youre asking about volume. I was looking at the apap function on the bloomberg terminal and we are above the average volume. Sellers mean business. Upfor volatility, the vix is , the nasdaq 100 fix up above 40 the nasdaq 100 vix headed toward 45, heading for its biggest spike since july. The selling pressure is serious. Because we have signs of weakness in europe along with the s p 500 being below its moving average, the near and medium term buyers are holding out, their hands are out, theyre waiting to see whether the long term buyers will pick up. There is reason to think the selling pressure will continue. David what will you be looking at to indicate whether it does continue or not . Abigail i will be looking at those technicals. The german dax sliced in a more violent way than happen february. That tells you the long term buyers are getting out, they do not want to be in stocks. The s p 500 trades in a similar way. You could probably see the s p 500 below its 200 Day Moving Average as fears rise around what the virus could mean. Something that stands out is the utility sector. In october, we have the s p 500 are, only two sectors higher, one fractionally. Utilities up 9 , heading for its best month since may of 2003. The reason that stands out is it is a defensive sector and investors are going into the defensive sector even as yields are down. Typically you would have these utilities that makes sense, you do have the utilities higher right now with yields about flat. The fact you have this defensive sector outperforming in such a massive way in this risk off month suggests november could be pretty difficult. David as you pointed out, this is following what happened in europe. It is not just a u. S. Phenomenon , it is not about the election. As a practical matter, can traders settle down until we are past the election . Abigail that is a source of volatility, and a lot of experts would say we would be ready for anything. Because the virus is the bigger systemic issue. If we do see more drastic lockdowns, that could damper the economy. That is why you are seeing the huge selling pressure in europe. That will supersede the election. A lot of traders and strategists talk about the election as more noise, the uncertainty around it. That would be the near term whipsaw. If the virus does worsen as seems to be the case, that could be a longerterm drag on the economy. That is what we are seeing in the technicals of the markets a lot of investors are wanting to take chips off the table. David thanks to Abigail Doolittle for that report on the markets. General electric surprised wall street, reporting a profit when analysts expected a loss exceeding expectations on revenue and cash flow. We welcome ge chairman and ceo larry culp. I think i should say congratulations. Secondly, you stepped into ge when it was thought to be something of a turnaround of a respected company that had fallen on hard times. People thought you might be able to do that, but if there is a downturn that will set your plans arrive. Now you are getting a turnaround in the middle of an economic downturn in the middle of a pandemic. What is next . Can you keep this going . Larry good to be with you. It has been an interesting two years on this turnaround journey. You will recall when we were together in march, we were in a different place. We knew our aviation and Health Care Businesses were outstanding franchises. The challenge in 2020 was to take the next step in our deleveraging which we did in march with the 20 billion. All of the proceeds from our biofarma sales and continue to build momentum with respect to the turnarounds in both our power and renewables business. Adays result, headlined by 500 million positive Free Cash Flow number give support to the argument that turnaround is underway. It is still early. Make no mistake. We are very encouraged by what we saw in our power business, particularly gas power, and renewables is profitable. This is the first time in those two years we have had all four of our reporting segments profitable. Health care was the standout business in the Third Quarter. Aviation is still pressured on the back of departures being down 40 . Far better than what we saw in spring but still down. I think we are building momentum. It is early, and there is a lot of work to do and of our businesses, but what you see today is evidence we are moving forward, covid or not. David like other excellent ceos, you focus on execution and executing well. At some point you have to grow. What you see the growth coming up . When you are forward, where you see growth . Larry you are exactly right. What we want to do in the short is make sure we are driving cost and cash actions so we have more control of our destiny. Longerterm i think ge is set up to lead and to grow. If you think about where we are in both power and renewables, wellpositioned to lead in the energy transition. Precision health, we talk about personalized medicine, more efficient care delivery, we set of what will be an important opportunity for us and think about safer light post covid. Our Aviation Business will need to play an important role. We see growth profitability is, profitable growth across the entire ge portfolio. David talk about power. You have disparate deck you have different aspects of power at general electric. We have an election coming up. I will not ask you to take a position on who will win or lose, but there seems to be quite a diversity in point of view when it comes to renewables. You have plenty of Sensitivity Analysis on what might happen if we did have democrats in charge rather than republicans. Run both our renewables and our power businesses as global businesses. There is no question that as we look around the world we see transitions in many places, from coal and nuclear to the Power Sources of the future. We do not think that is strictly wind and solar. When you look at energy independence, when you look at the desire for high reliability in addition to addressing Climate Change challenge, we think we are wellpositioned. Our onshore wind business is strong. Near record shipments in the Third Quarter. We have had very good progress, nice new order for our emerging offshore wind business and our core gas power business, which is the heart of our power segment. Continues to prove our leading technologies have a role to play today, and in time, with the introduction of hydrogen, even more so going forward. David give us a sense of what is going on in aviation. Aviation took an enormous hit from the pandemic globally. What are you seeing in aviation, and you think it is a year or two phenomenon and are there fundamental or permanent changes coming up . Larry we do think we are on a path as an industry to recover to 2019 levels. That seems to be the benchmark many people use. We have not put the tail on the donkey and said we will be back at a time of certainty. We do think we get back. Clearly the industry will look different when that time comes. If we look at departures and we look daily, what we have seen his departures down about 40 since labor day. That is flatlining. We have seen a little bit here and there. China back near precovid levels. Europe has turned down over last couple of weeks, but as we move forward we are trying to control our destiny with the cost and cash actions we have talked about while continuing to make sure we are in a position to work with our customers as they mount a recovery in the quarters and years ahead. David all of us are so conscious of health care given the pandemic globally, not just in the united states. Give us a sense of your view of how your business is doing in health care these days . Larry we probably did not have a better performer in the Third Quarter than our health care business. They have been on the front with respectuhan to being part of the solution. The spiking ventilator demand has been well documented. We also have other products like patient monitors in the second and Third Quarter that enjoyed tremendous demand. We are back to our inhouse ventilator production, up five full since the beginning of the year. We see that tapering, which will move a bit given the potential playingin covid that is out. The core of our health care business, the imaging franchises the world of to precision health, once we think we can grow and grow properly, which we intend to do. David from the beginning you were focused on leverage. As i understand youre tired more in the Fourth Quarter. We would be well on our way if we simply executed in power and aviation and health care, how wellpositioned we would be approaching that 2. 5 target we set for our industrial business. It will take a while longer now. We will need to grow our cash and our ebita to appoint where we are in a less leveraged position. Fortunately we think we have the time to do that. Our results underscore we are making progress in that regard, with more to come. David you still have some things to clean up with this quarter and particular with the sec, particularly how you accounted for longterm care. Where do you stand with that . Some people were pleasantly surprised you reserved 100 million, they thought that was a low number given the size of the problems. Does that tell us what your assessment is of the problems . Larry that is exactly right. We have disclosed there is an active sec investigation relative to legacy items around our longterm Care Insurance accounting, our Service Agreement accounting, and the charge and power, the charge we took 100 million here in the Third Quarter was our best read given the circumstances as to the appropriate number for the investigation in its entirety. David to come back to my first question, what comes next for your turnaround . Is it continuing with the plan you have or are you looking at other possibilities, structural or otherwise for the ge of the future . Larry is still very early in what we are doing to unlock and realize the full potential of ge. We want to be in a position where power and renewables are far more profitable. We think our gas power business can be cash flow positive next year. We have a lot more to do to make our core wind business a higher return business while we fixed some of the other businesses in that segment. Health care, we like to continue the path we saw in the Third Quarter. Aviation will take longer. Some of that is outside of our control given the covid affect, but nonetheless we will not wait till the market delivers better performance. We are hard at work working to do that. Here in the Fourth Quarter and getting ready for 2021. David ge had a big set of challenges as you took over. With thea ceo deal covid pandemic at the same time . That is something none of us know. None of us are trained as epidemiologists. We cannot know the science. We are watching partial shutdowns over in europe. How do you take that into account with your planning . How do you get ge ready for a world where you do not know how open we will be six months, 12 months, even later . Larry the good news is when covid hit we were already in this transformation economy, changing the way we work day in and day out. Been an additional challenge. There is no doubt about it. What we try to do was step through a simple framework where we embraced the reality, we embrace the uncertainty that existed in the spring, we wanted to make sure we were framing for everyone what the next victory would look like. Admittedly in places, far more modest, but we wanted to make sure people could see progress and maintain hope. Then we have been hard at work executing that plan. It is that fundamental. It is a daily battle in many respects. While we have had a good quarter, i would not say we have won every day, but the work continues. It is work the team has proven it can do. It is a resilient team, a team i am proud to be a member of. We have many good days ahead of us. I believe that. To talk toys a treat you whether good news or bad news. Im happy for you it was good news. That was ge chairman and ceo larry culp. Coming up, the ceos of twitter, facebook, and google all testifying today. Will hear from michael wolf, founder and managing director of activate. That is coming up on balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. David this is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. The ceos of facebook, google, and twitter are testifying to the Senate Commerce committee on whether one provision of federal law that protects them from being sued to include or exclude social media posts, whether that should be changed. We will come authority on the media, michael wolf is founder and mineral ching founder and managing director of activate. Offormerly served as cocoo mtv and a board member at yahoo . Michael is a big day. David give us your take. Youve been following, what is going on with these hearings, will they change the provision that immuno sizes them from the lawsuit . Michael it is all about content moderation. Both sides of the aisle have been focused on this. It is an issue for both sides, but it is an issue for a different perspective. On the side of democrats, it is about avoiding misinformation, Voter Suppression that spread through these platforms. Others, there is this concern that this is all about bullying the big social theorks right before election because their labeling the president s post as misleading or false. In each of the companies is taking a different stance on this. Facebook is saying we welcome government regulation, google is saying we will figure it out, and twitter is saying what we want to do is give users control about how information is spread across our network. David this provision of law was enacted at a time social media it did not exist or was embryonic. It did not look at the world we see right now. It was done in part to protect them so they could grow up without having to review each and every post the way people do for articles in the New York Times or Washington Post. If they change this or took it away, woody fundamentally damage their business . Michael it is not going to damage their business. The unintended consequence of this is it is damaging businesses that are upandcoming social Networks Like tiktok and others. If these regulations had been in place, they wouldve hampered the growth of other social networks, of instagram that now belongs to facebook would not have grown so quickly. There is a lot of content on tiktok that might be viewed as politically undesirable but not necessarily protected in the same way. Way in them will find a which they can work around this. Typically when there is regulations from big tech, it ends up hurting the upstart who typically have been the challengers to these big companies, versus somebody else big. I am concerned about this. I think these companies have already done a great deal to moderate content. It is nothing new. Some of the examples, it is not just about political information. Some of the examples is 80 of people go to google to search for medical information. Google only provides information the first results are from established and reputable sources like the mayo clinic because they want to avoid speculative cures. This is the same thing here. They want to avoid things that are misinformation. The challenge is they will try to strike the right balance. I do not think it will go away. They are trying to get it out of the political and get it into more of the practical of what they need to serve their users . David it strikes me washing washington with their technology. There are two tracks. One is on the antitrust side. Antitrust is an economic form of regulation. They are too big and powerful for the economy. The other is content. Substantive content moderating who wins and who loses. Compare those approaches. Is one more efficacious or is another more dangerous for the business and for society . Theeconomic michael economic side of this is these companies have become so big that we call them walled gardens. So much of their ecosystem is around them they end up crowding out anyone else from Digital Advertising. Today almost three quarters of all Digital Advertising goes through these top companies. There are issues there that can be anticompetitive, and there are number of things that can be done from a regulation perspective to at least open up the market. 230, thisse, section is about content moderation. Lets recognize theres a lot of thatnt generated by users these platforms, part of their value is they spread it, they make it addictive so you as a user start finding things you are interested in that you find through others. It is algorithmically spread. The issue is they have an interest in making sure there is not that kind of false information, and at the same time they want to allow their users to contribute and want to get people to continue to use their platforms. I think neither, if they are done right, could be harmful. Decidingdown to who is what is good, what is false . I do nothing there can be left to legislators. David going back to the economic regulation, activate has a new report, you bring one out every fall, that talks about adding 350 billion in new business over the next four years and half of it is advertising. Do we need some way to constrain the big guys . You say 75 of the new advertising is going to couple of providers. We need to constrain them so other people can catch up . Michael there are ways in which to constrain them. We have to make sure theyre not going to block other people from getting it. If you look at these companies and you at amazon, they control, they have a huge advantage in getting adverti

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