Italy lays out fresh plans to halt the spread. Angela merkel urges people to follow the rules. Benefits from volatility, joining european peers posting lowerthanexpected bad loan provisions. A bullish tone with the numbers. Bottomshould look at the line. It stands at 2 versus a year ago. Look at nine months. It basically is ahead of the target we gave for the full year 2020. Headline. The red the savior, guess what it is . Ficc. Fixed income commodity and currency. 36 . Ng rises by it has beaten the estimates out there. Looks like ann marie, lets provision, very much less provisions. 1. 2 billion euros over what we had anticipated. What else have we got . You have the net numbers. That thirdquarter revenue surpassing the one billion euro estimate. Quite a beat. They are bouncing back more quickly than a lot of french peers on equity derivatives. The equity trading revenue rose more than 21 . That beach the highest estimate. Some good numbers coming through. The other big story, we have been counting down to this. It is election day in the United States of america. 1 00 a. M. On the east coast and we just had 45 minutes ago the first in person votes being cast knox. Ville not indicative of anything, but it is a great tradition. This is a historic moment. We have record voter turnout. What does it mean for the democrats . Our editor really making the point it is all about the , but weiden is ahead will debate that. Marcus looking frisky. Certainly. Japan closed, the Msci Asia Pacific excluding japan up nearly 1. 5 percent this morning and we are seeing Global Equities moved to the upside. Futures in london up 0. 9 . Dax futures, a nice reprieve after what we saw last week on the dax. We are up 1 . Across assets this morning with japan, you are going to wait for bond trading. The futures market on the 10 year. Aussie under pressure. You have been all over that. Rba cut their Interest Rates announcing a new bond buying program. Eurodollar 116. What a reprieve from brent. Yesterday a bloodbath. Novak beating russian producers. Signaling they will delay production cuts. U. S. Manufacturing numbers, a great number on the manufacturing side of those pmis. Thats obviously going to be helping anything in the oil market. It is election day in the United States. President trump and joe biden ended the race with a final blitz of campaigning in critical states. Biden leads nationally. The latest by Quinnipiac University putting him ahead of trump in ohio and florida, two of the most hotly contested battleground states. Our Senior EditorDerek Wallbank joins us now. He has lived in so many of these swing states. Inn in miami, lived wisconsin. What has been the closing messages in the final moments of campaigning . Donald trump in grand rapids, one of the places in michigan on election night, is a really important area where trump barely carried it in 2016, but the Biden Coalition should do very well. A critical area of the state. Trumps closing message was his greatest hits. He talked about hunter biden, he talked about the pressure probe, he talked about all those sorts of things. It has been more of the same, whereas joe biden has come home on this race very much on his basic message of competency, decency, and the ideas that if youre tired of four of those last years, you dont want four more of the same. As theyivergent message close up. Joe biden is sticking really to that midwestern battleground. He wants to clamp down and win in pennsylvania particularly. Manus 100 million votes we understand have been cast already. The First Physical votes were cast. 100 million. Do we have any indication whether this will come true to a blue sweep . Or is it blue mr. Risk . Missed risk . Five of the people of Dixville Notch are going to be upset with you. The line between a close race and an absolute blowout is very small. If you look through the electoral map, you can get from biden being about 250 electoral votes and just falling short to biden being at about 375 or 400 electoral votes without too much actual change in the vote margin. The line between 250 and 400 seems like a huge gulf but in reality, it is not that big. Raceis is a statebystate , we could be in for a very long period of vote counting. I thinknk markets everyone tried to pair for this. But if you are sitting there yourlly planing out portfolio and your clients that is volatility to beat all volatility. 2020 has been the euro volatility, hasnt it . Year of volatility, hasnt it . Manus it has. You will get no sleep, you will be with us all the way. , my apologies to the notch,ants of dixville by the way. Here is the president , he has been talking for quite a while. Hes in grand Rapids Michigan and it looks like the polling there, according to the detroit free press, biden leads by seven points in michigan. Hence the reason we are so focused on this. Yes. One thing to keep in mind is this is where president donald nominee,enrepublican ended his campaign, right here in grand rapids, michigan. He has been talking now at least for an hour, talking about a red wave coming through, saying hes doing very well in swing states like florida, like michigan. These are the states we are going to be watching closely. Lets just listen and see with the closing comments are. Pres. Trump bigger than health care. Lower drug prices even more. We have signed and done something that has never been done on Prescription Drug prices. It will bring prices down 60 , 70 , like you have never seen before. Pharmag companies, big does not exactly like your favorite president , i will tell you. That is ok. We will always protect patients with preexisting conditions. America will land the first woman on the moon and the United States will be the first nation to land an astronaut on mars. Donald trump speaking at grand rapids in michigan, he has been speaking for quite a while. We are online, on tv, on radio. D. C. Acrossive from the United States. And into asia and here in the middle east. Broke the bnp paribas numbers at the start of the show. Ficc ripping it up, way ahead of the estimates. That came in up 36 on their trading. We had the opportunity to speak with the bnp cfo about lockdown across europe. If you look at the lockdowns being announced today, and you compare them to what we saw early in the year, they are quite different. It looks like the authorities have learned their lessons. Basically the authorities themselves keep on going, construction can continue, moreover if you look at manufacturing, if you look at services, the Service Industry has learned from the previous confinement and really is equipped to continue working from home. From that point of view, the impact will be different. There will be an impact, but it should be different in nature than what we saw previously. On top of that, all of the authorities have stepped up the efforts they have done to support the economy. They are rolling out new things in europe. They have stepped up to 15 billion Additional Support to the economy. One has to see how it is enforced, but the lockdown seemed different. The ecb is continuing to impose dividend restrictions. Your ability to give money to shareholders has been limited. Lets talk about dividend policy Going Forward. The first question is the 2019 dividend. Is that going to be paid in 2020 excuse me, 2021, or as you think we are going to have to wait for later . Is it going to be a 2020 story, a 2021 story . I dont have my crystal ball with me. We have to wait on the guidelines that europe will give. At this stage they will come back on their recommendation around december. We will have to wait. If we look at the 2020 dividends, 50 of that, we have put aside for dividend to be paid. Also there we have to wait for what the authorities will do, but that is what we continue to provide. , youe flip side is continue to focus on cost. Is your expectation in terms of the banks ability to reduce costs further . Are we going to see significant layoffs . If you look at the costs we are reducing, we are reducing them in infrastructure and the like. When you look at our staff, lets not forget, our staff is fully there to support the economy, they have been mobilized. Banks are open. That is the key thing of what we do. We aim to optimize, to be there, to be available, to serve clients, to serve the economy. That is what we will continue to do. Cfo. E bnp coming up we are going to continue on election day, battleground blitz. Trump and biden head into the home stretch. You can see donald trump wrapping up his final rally of 2020 at the same place he ended his 2016 campaign rally. More on that next. I have to begin this conversation using the word uncertainty. Im worried about the prospect of a contested election , especially widespread unrest. And come january 20, im worried there is still no clear picture as to who the president is. Reality will start to set in of President Trump wins. The market will be less enthusiastic after the initial bump. There has been recordbreaking turnout in a lot of places. Texas comes to mind. Whether this guarantees a Biden Victory or not is anybodys guess. From election to election, the difference is not so much people changing their minds. It is who decides to turn out. Biden and the white house without the fed means emergency stimulus in january could be very tough. Exitere is not really an ramp for either side. The stakes are so high that when we wake up wednesday or much further along if we dont know the results quickly, around half the country is going to find this to be an existential threat. That is the view from our guests, local wall street on uncertainty. Americans had to the polls with massive turnout expected and mailin ballots to process. It has the potential to end in an early landslide or a drawn out brawl. Senior fx is a strategist out abn amro. How do you suggest traders position going into the next 24 hours especially when it comes to the u. S. Dollar . We are moreay that cautious. Ine seen in the coming the days up to hear that some of the traders and investors have reduced the position they had. If they were long euro they have reduced somewhat. Cautioushere will be they will be cautious Going Forward. The dollar until now has been done very well. Sentiment was very negative on the dollar. You have more uncertainty. You see the dollar has faltered a bit. It is a standstill of the moment waiting for more clues on what the outcome will be. Now we get a bit more cautious. Result ing for the the days after. Manus very good day to you. Explodingket that is is the yuan volatility. Overnight volatility makes equity and bond traders look weak. Victory, how does that play out for the yuan and the pboc . I would say players or investors have already anticipated a biden win. The yuan hasy rated so strongly as they anticipate he would win and they would be in a better relationship with china. Personally i think they are too optimistic. It is not that clear biden will take that road. His approach could be different than trumps approach, but i think he will still take on china. Are hopingvestors there will be a relationship between the u. S. And china. Probably if that would be the be the story could if biden wins. Do you agree with what strategists are saying, that biden is bad for the ruble but good for the peso . General, if biden wins, the dollar would move a bit further in the short term. That is probably because of the stimulus package for the economy which could give that extra boost to the economy. In the event of trump, you could see more dollar at the same when you get into the whole story, real yields will stay negative or even go more negative. That will weigh on the dollar in 2021. If i would move that to emerging markets, they have been beaten up quite a lot recently. Because of the uncertainty and because we had a bit of a comeback on the dollar. I would say there is a bit more upside next year. This year was not the year of em certainty. Be for 2021. Ould thank you. Election coverage you dont want to miss it. We start at midnight london time. We will be live from d. C. Across the United States, the very latest on all the market actions. We will be with you from 6 00 a. M. London time. I will be here for the middle east shows as well. Coming up, clear win or contested results . Our key election morning calls right here. This is bloombergs. Nus it is daybreak europe in thelection day biggest economy of the world. Investors are really trying to understand, what do i do, where do i go . Juliette saly joins me from singapore. Joins us, i should say. I am getting used to her being back. Good morning. What are your morning calls . We have just heard from cit s top u. S. Equity strategist saying they are seeing more clients fallout. There could be an upset Trump Victory. This is based on the fact you cannot rule out the shy Trump Supporters and this could also lead to challenges in the court which would be an upset for markets. They still have a 65 probability you will see a biden win. Comeu do see supporters out of the woodwork that could lead to social unrest and an upset to markets. Jp morgan saying if you see a trump reelection you could see the s p 500 get to 3900 points by years end. The banks equity strategy seeing a Trump Victory is the most favorable outcome for the markets. Be accompanied by fiscal stimulus but rising taxes. Southeast saying a Biden Victory would be good for european stocks due to lower trade uncertainty. Stimulus has we are expecting. Lets look at what everybody is bracing for, that is a contested election. Bank of america saying u. S. Stocks could face a 20 slide if you see this. They want to see for the markets a clear result coming through within a week of today. They say declines will be sharper than 20 if either side refused to accept the results. Saying drivey are the 10 year rate lower. A slew of election calls. We will see who got it right. Coming up as we discussed the election in the United States, here in europe, it is all about covid. Annmarie good morning bloombergs european headquarters. This is daybreak europe. Election day in the u. S. 100 million americans have voted early and turnout is expected to challenge a historic record. Struggles to battle covid19. Finance ministers are set to meet and chancellor merkel urges germans to follow the rules. Bnp paribas beats. The ceo struck a bullish tone on the numbers. The bottom line stands at 2 versus a year ago. If you look at 9 at nine months it basically is the head start in the outlook for 2020. Paribas to is bnp the beat in the oil market, to aramco. Their profits net quarter drops. It is down from 79. 8 billion riyals. Dividend, this is the critical point. This was the promise made by the saudis to the market. Dividend, 18. 70 5 billion. I think we are still on track. I need to double check we are still on track for 75 billion this year. This is the important number. You have the capex number . Flow fromcash operating activities, 18. 8 billion. Capital expenditures, six point 4 billion u. S. Dollars. As you say, the dividend, crucial for aramco. They are maintaining that dividend and that is key for the kingdom. Low oil prices weighing on every oil major. Everyone started to hurt. You saw that yesterday with the Russian Energy minister. We have results from bayer, a adjusted ebit tha. A miss going through some of the numbers. And of course it is election day. That is going to be the biggest driver of these markets overall. In newin person voting hampshire. Dixville notch. Five votes. Manus five people. Annmarie five people voted. It is an american tradition. What is so unprecedented about the selection is this election is the mass turnout before election day. Nearly 100 million americans have already voted. We have just done the aramco numbers. What would the new relationship for joe biden be with saudi arabia . What would be the extension of a Trump Presidency in the relationship with saudi arabia, one of his critics . Iran sending us although to the biting camp. If you do not lift sanctions, we are going to return to some of our Nuclear Production facilities. There are warning shots from my region back to the white house the half major, major implications. Lets take a quick look at markets. I think the word i used is frisky at the top of the show. Equity markets are showing effusive signs. Asia up 1. 3 . In asia on the risk of a protracted discussion about who is present, bank of america says we could drop 20 . Ironic to see the dax up nearly 1 as we go into the close. Lets have a look at the treasury market. Treasury funding comes at 50 of what they thought it was going to be. , japangot u. S. Futures closed, the cash is closed. Futures prices drop. Bond yields are rising at the moment. Why a is your function. Aussie drops. Brent down by a quarter of 1 . Marketshe state of the as we go into election 2020. As the coronavirus is surging across the u. S. , europe reporting record daily cases. Boris johnson said the u. K. Has no alternative to lockdown across england. Governments trying to cushion the economic impact. The u. K. Is going to be bringing promising 15, billion 15 billion euros of support. The focus is on the next move from the central bank. We hear from the boe this week. Joining us from brussels is maria tadeo. Finance ministers will be meeting today. How downbeat will they sound . If they sound anything like Christine Lagarde did last week they are going to sound very downbeat for the european economy. Christine lagarde said the risks are very very much tilted to the downside. The economy is losing momentum. We do not have a time horizon in terms of the pandemic. There is no visibility. Those restrictions may be longer than expected. They may become more structural. For the finance ministers the debate will be around that stimulus package, whether more money is needed to be put to the table or just stick to what we have and make sure it gets implemented. Remember the Recovery Fund and the talk around it is stuck in negotiations. The second issue will have to do with e