To challenge records. Eu finance are set to meet today. Italy lays out fresh restrictions. Chancellor merkel urges germans to follow the rules. Bmp bounces back, the french Bank Benefits from volatility. A bullish tone on the numbers. If you look at the bottom year ago, andus a nine months, it is ahead of the target we gave for the outlook for the full year of 2020. We are under one hour until the start of cash equity trading. Good morning. Lets look at futures. Some real strength coming through futures markets sees the european picture up 0. 8 . If we look at the u. S. , we get a similarly positive picture. He saw strength yesterday. We have not erased losses from last week. The coronavirus is still very much with us. Yesterday the u. S. Equity markets recovered to some extent, and in europe, the cac 0. 2 . X up by today we see more of that positive trend. We can see positivity coming through in the asian session. Japan is closed, but we have the asian equity session fairly positive. Theets are looking ahead to election, bracing for volatility. The dollar is falling broadly speaking. The euro is a little resurgent. We see australian assets on the move as a result of an Interest Rate cut. It is election day in the United States. President trump and democratic nominee, joe biden, and did the race with last ditch efforts to persuade voters in key states. Biden leads nationally in polls, with the latest putting him ahead of trumpa in ohio and florida, two of the most hotly contested states. What were the closing arguments that these two put forward . The sameere mostly arguments we have been hearing a while, joe biden saying the nation cannot afford another four years of trump, particularly because of his response to the coronavirus. President trump says if joe biden becomes president , watch the economy tank and jobs disappear, and the nation become locked down. He had criticism for Hillary Clinton and dr. Fauci, who he said he may fire if he is reelected. We will see what happens now, but their arguments were about voting itself. Donald trump is saying and he has made this case consistently that he thinks the votes should be counted tomorrow, and joe biden is making the argument that with 100 Million People voting early, there will be places where they will not be able to count those votes, and we will likely not know who the winner is. More about the early voting surge. Joe biden seems to think that , and him an inside track perhaps democrats are more likely to vote early. President trump is fighting against that line of argument. This is relevant when a hundred million americans have already voted. Jodi that is right, and there are certain states like florida and north carolina, where they are able to count the early votes right away. Other states like pennsylvania, it could take several days to get those votes counted. You could know a winner, and states where they are clear, but you can have key swing states where it is not. Assess where this could get interesting and messy. And that is where this could get interesting and messy. If President Trump declares himself the winner without the votes counted, what does that mean . We will have to see, it could be something that is clearcut and like other elections, but with a hundred Million People voting early or by mail, it is an unprecedented situation. Anna for those of us outside the United States less familiar, tell me why when people vote early, it takes longer to count those . Jodi each state has its own rules. To countes are able them as they go, so they have a result like florida. Pennsylvania is not one of those states, and a key swing state. For viewers outside the u. S. , it is not only important who is winning the popular vote, it is the Electoral College. You have to get 270 electoral votes, and states are winner takes all. Important that states like michigan, haveylvania, florida, that a fair number of Electoral College votes and our swing states, that is why candidate spends so much time there. They have to get to 270. Anna thank you, jodi schneider. Dont miss our coverage of the election. We will be live from d. C. And across the United States with the latest, and the markets reaction. Turning to Market Reaction, u. S. And european futures rise. Currencies brace for increased volatility, particularly the chinese yuan. Us, you are is with arguing that we will not see postelection euphoria in stocks. Is that because we see preelection euphoria . Mark i think that is one part of it. The difference from 2016, going into that election, the market was pessimistic for several months. Everyone remembers it was assumed to be a clinton victory. Pessimisticere very. They were missing the fact that global data, everyone across the world, all the Major Economies were improving rapidly, showing a growth surge globally, and yet global assets did not reflect that. We knew going into the last , i think people now remember after the last election, everybody piled in. They use that as an excuse to get bullish now. In 2016 they got bullish because they refocused on fundamentals, which were bullish. If the same thing happens today, and we refocus on the fundamental picture, the fundament a picture is deteriorating rapidly because of the resurgent virus. Priced generously, not just the last couple days but all year. Growth forecasts will come lower. The outlook for stocks is not particularly good after this election no matter who wins. Anna relatively expensive going into the election versus other elections. To 2016, and whichever way you think stocks would go here, if we see a loss of volatility, everybody has a chance to be right in a 24 hour period. Which assets do you think will move most . On the markets live team you have been asking this question, so what is the thinking . Mark everyone has a chance to be right tomorrow. Everyone has a chance to be wrong tomorrow. That is more dangerous. People are cautious and nervous. A lot of volatility is expected. When volatility is expected, we do not always get that volatility. Tomorrow, i do think there is so much uncertainty and confusion, it is such a weird year, and we are unsure whether we should trade pandemic developments, the election, or whatever data is coming in. There will be a lot of volatility. I do not think it will be like 2016 with futures down than roaring higher again, but i think we will see moves. Which assets will show them . I have no idea myself. We are excited about the emfx currencies related to policy. Last election it was the mexican peso and the ruble that moved on the day, but the yuan is in focus this year. Much, good tou so speak to you, mark cudmore, markets live managing editor. You can join the debate with the question of the day, which asset will move most on Election Results . Get in touch with us. Bets surgelatility on election day as stocks look set for a second day of gains. We will talk with christoph rieger, head of fixedrate strategy, commerzbank. Finance ministers meet to discuss how to tackle the second wave. This is bloomberg. I just have to begin this conversation by using the word uncertainty. I am very worried about the prospect of a contested election, especially widespread unrest. I am worried that come january 20 that there is no clear picture as to who the president of the United States is. The reality will set in if President Trump wins, and the market will be far less enthusiastic. There has been record breaking turnout, texas comes to mind. Whether this guarantees a Biden Victory or not is anybodys guess. From election to election, the difference is not so much people changing their minds in the middle, who decides to turn out. , biden in the white house means getting a emergency stimulus in january is tough, and this country will need it. There is not a nexen ramp for either side. When we wake up wednesday, if we do not know the results quickly, around half the country will find this an existential threat. Anna some of our guests giving a sense of election uncertainty, the things that concern them heading into the election. Millions of americans are going to the polls, apart from the millions who have already voted. With a massive turnout expected, an avalanche of mailin ballot, Election Night can and with a landslide to a drawn out battle, to drown out into next year. We speak to christoph rieger, head of fixedrate strategy, commerzbank. Lets start with that timescale. Often on Election Night, you think you will get an outcome and no oneway or the other in 24 hours. That has not always in the case in the u. S. , and people are focused on that again. When you are game planning this and thinking about different scenarios, how far out into the future are you looking . Christoph certainly the next few days, as a number of states ballotid their mailin will not be counted before friday. There will clearly be some results, and if it is a clear majority in most contested states, the market will take a. Lear view that biden will win however, this is far from certain. Especially as the ballots are being counted, and the picture starts to change, and clearly there is a risk of contested elections, probably we are looking into a number of days, certainly wednesday for most of the day where there will be volatility. Anna you manage fixed rate strategy with a longer term horizon in mind, what would surprise you . What is in the realms of normal expectation, and what would surprise you . I am thinking about 10 year 0. 857 is where we trade on the 10 year. Christoph given the uncertainty, there are chances for a huge surprise because anything is possible. The market is not focusing on the senate outcome. If we have a Biden Victory becoming clear, plus the democrats taking the senate, i think we could be in for a push higher and longer in yields, which this biden trade which has made itself felt over the last few weeks could extend further. I would see this as an Inflection Point, because the u. S. Curve has not steepened enough, and it is attractive to foreigners as well as the mystic accounts. Domestic accounts. Anna is it steepening enough . Is the fiscal impulse we get, whoever wins, has it already been priced into markets . Christoph yes, i think given the curve as a reactor, the market is priced for the biden deficits that could come. The near term prospect may be different. The secondnt on Stimulus Program is key. Any bloomberg headline, the market will react to that. That will not change next week, this week, or coming weeks as the new administration will not take office before january. It is not clear we get an agreement there. Retracemential for on some of these moves on the u. S. Curves we have seen over the last few weeks. Anna whoever wins will have to deal with the coronavirus over the winter. This is a dominant theme in europe and we see lockdowns aplenty. In the u. S. , what is your expectation to slow down over the winter given the battle against the virus, which could pop up. It has to be said the u. S. Economy has been holding up a lot better than many expected, and especially the recovery is swifter. Regardless of the additional stimulus package that is being debated. The u. S. Economy is showing resilience and fundamentals do look more favorably on the most election scenarios than for your. For europe. Anna thank you. Christoph rieger, head of fixedrate strategy, commerzbank stays with us. Dont miss our coverage of the election, we will be live from washington, d. C. And across the United States with the latest on the swing states and local battles. We will bring that to you along with the Market Reaction. Coming up, bnp paribas bounces back on revenue, but are the markets taking notice . How relevant is the earnings season as we deal with coronavirus and look ahead to the election . This is bloomberg. Anna welcome back to Bloomberg Markets european open. 14 minutes until the start of cash equities trading. Ahead of the election it looks like futures are suggesting upside. Bnp paribas announced 36 jump in fixed trading for the quarter. The bank has learned lessons from the first wave of covid19 infections. We were told about the potential size of future dividends. If we look at the 2020 , we have been considering 50 of that, we have put aside for dividends to be paid in 2021. We have to wait, but that is what we continue to provide for. Anna christoph rieger, head of fixedrate strategy, commerzbank is still with us. The Banking Sector is different around the earnings story and dividends because of the regulatory involvement. Speaking broadly about the earnings season, how has that informed your view on corporate debt . It seems to have failed to lift spirits. Is that because of the winter and outlooks and a lack of visibility abound . Christoph yes, absolutely. The earnings season by and large is better than expected. Also here in europe. There is a view in the rearview mirror, as clearly the second wave has changed the fundamental dynamics again. Approach is still adequate, however we do see some potential within some cyclical banks, the better rated names do stand a chance after some of the concessions we have seen as of late. Anna when you look at how governments and Central Banks have supported business and try to avoid spreads flowing out, have we had the right policies as we get ready for winter . Is there something we should learn from one jurisdiction and apply to another on how we support business through this difficult time . Christoph most governments have taken a whateverittakes approach. With the lockdowns and dealing with the fallout. Volatility and bond markets is rather subdued because of the same time we have a central bank which, without spelling it out explicitly as draghi, still, under lagarde, is doing whatever it takes to absorb these supply volumes. According to our calculations, it will be enough. We are still facing what we characterize as an issue of re is morend the demand in sectors low on supply. Anna let me ask you about expectations for the bank. How dovish are your expectations for thursday, as we have an expectation of some action from the bank of england . I think firm decisions, as early as this thursday, probably are premature. Except for the asset purchases. However, the message will be rather dovish. We could see a blueprint of what we have seen from lagarde, the ecb last week, where clearly, brexithe uncertainty, as adds an additional element there, this uncertainty requires the prospect for further steps down the road. This is the signal the bank of england will give on thursday. Anna thank you very much for your time. Christoph rieger, head of fixedrate strategy, commerzbank , helping us get ready for the u. S. Election. Some of the trading expectations he has, shortterm and longterm, and expectations for how we deal with the coronavirus heading into the winter as far as monetary response. Coming up, back to the main theme, the u. S. Election. Clear win or contested election, that is the question for the market. We will look at key election morning calls, and what it may mean to the markets if we do not have certainty, and it takes a long time to count the votes, what will that do to markets, what will that do to society in the meantime we will talk about that next. 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We have to win this state, i think we win this state and pennsylvania and florida. We are going to win the whole thing. Put an end to can a president who fans the flames of hate across the country. Those of the u. S. President ial candidates making their final pitches to voters ahead of the election. Join us on our coverage with the u. S. Election starting at midnight london time. We will be live across the United States and in d. C. , and also with all the market action. Some key morning calls, Juliette Saly joins us from singapore. She looks at what investors are talking about and thinking about before this important event. Volatility is projected to be high. What are investors looking at . It is easy to talk about a blue wave, and we may not get that outcome at all. What is it analysts are looking at . Juliette lets start with a potential upset. We had a morning call from citi, the chief strategist saying they are hearing more from their clients that there could be a trump upset victory. That could lead to court challenges, and a delayed outcome, which could spook markets. They have a 65 probability of a biden win, but you cannot count out trump vote or, shy voters who tell their family and friends they will vote for trump. Stocks could be under pressure because so many are position for joe bidens policies. Jp morgan says if there is a trump election, it could push. He s p 500 by yearend the chief strategist saying a Trump Victory would be most favorable for markets, because a blue sweep could see infrastructure spending, but a negative catalyst rising Corporate Taxes. Anna one of the Big Questions for the euro