We welcome all of you to an onraordinary friday morning Bloomberg Radio and Bloomberg Television. It is jobs day. We will look at the state of this pandemic economy at 8 30. But we will also begin to see substantial count and returns from these key states of georgia and pennsylvania. Jonathan really tight races in places like georgia and nevada, tightening in arizona and pennsylvania. That is the focus for market participants. I would go one step further. Also a focus on the senate. A reporter a little while ago said it wouldnt be a blue wave, it would be a blue mist if we got a 5050 in the senate with a Biden White House. That would really change the story. Then youve got to reshape the narrative of the past couple of days that have been driving this market. Tom we will get to the data here as we move along. Futures, 38. The dollar a little bit weaker. Gold up 50 over the last number of days. Michael holland scheduled to be with us on the market. I am still trying to find an entry point. We have been getting dribbles in gorgeous. In georgia. In waves of just a bit pennsylvania. At some point we will get a wallop of results, particularly from pennsylvania. Jonathan if it is not pennsylvania, it is somewhere else. If youve got arizona in the column for biden right now, then some other state would take them over the line. If you dont have arizona in the column, what happens if he gets to 270 because youve given him arizona . Do people start to make the call . Does he come out and do an except in speech . Or does he wait . What happens there . Tom it is one of the scenarios. As people say, mr. Trump has a pretty narrow path, and mr. Biden has a little more optionality. Lisa abramowicz come on the job economy and what Ellen Zentner told us of morgan stanley, is the Unemployment Rate really just under 8 . I dont buy it for a minute. Lisa this is a very narrow measure. The improvement we are expected to see in about a halfhour is going to diminish as covid continues to spread. I will say, jon mentioned that next week, how quickly will it be that the pandemic is front and center . The answer is very. We are seeing a Record Number of cases in the likes of ohio, michigan, indiana. At what point do we hit peak capacity for some of the icu beds that lead to new lockdowns . That will have a crippling effect on a lot of the aspects of the job Market Recovery. Tom out on twitter last night from the swiss government, i saw a beautiful moving chart of the hospitalization ratios in switzerland, and it was truly shocking and really pretty grievous, as we see those lockdowns, which we barely touched on today. Right now, he deserves to be in lockdown. Kevin cirilli is our chief washington correspondent. Im going to go again to your pennsylvania skill. Why are we talking about pittsburgh . Kevin that specifically is where joe biden could pick up some key votes that would push him over the threshold, but secondly, i was just looking at the front page on my cell phone of the erie times news. Above the fold, biden overtakes trump in erie county. Local officials are saying to have a small thanksgiving. I bring this up because erie county was one of the three counties that President Trump carried in 2016, that he flipped in the keystone state against hillary clinton. Biden now flipping back right now about very slim margin. Late last evening, erie county, pennsylvania, and it is in the front pages. It might come down to georgia, where just before i got on there, i looked at the tally, and biden has overtaken trump in 0. 02 . By georgia is fascinating because, as jonathan just alluded, this could be a Runoff Election in the senate race in georgia, and all of the republicans and democrats might need to be turning out for the polls. This as the president is raising concerns that he feels so far, no evidence was presented a allegations. Meanwhile, this just out, Senate Majority leader Mitch Mcconnell put out on twitter that here is how this must work in our great country. Every legal vote should become to. Any illegally voted ballots must not. All sides must get to observe the process, talking about some of the legal challenges. When will we have a definitive sense that the result will hold, given the fact that we are looking at a scenario right now with many legal challenges, as well as recounts that are potentially on the deck for georgia, given how close it is . Kevin based upon the chronology of state officials on the ground in all of the battleground states, i would anticipate that we are still at least 24 hours away from that happening, and there i say we could even be in a situation on monday or tuesday of next week. I dont want to get too far ahead of it, just in the sense that we are carefully tracking all of the data coming in. But to your point, what Senate Majority leader mcconnell just articulated in that statement measured statement that republicans are also having to navigate. When youve that got 69 to 70 million americans casting a ballot for President Trump, even should he lose, that is still a large percentage of americans who backed him, and as a result of that, the Republican Party is having to be measured and how they navigate this. Tom to me of the sylvania and mcconnell of kentucky to me of pennsylvania and mcconnell of kentucky and basically said to the president , stop it, right . Kevin i would not characterize it that way. Others have come out a bit more aligned with the statement you just made. Soon to be former representative rigell meant lost a primary several months ago, but he is a republican from rural virginia. He was critical in tweets of the president just within the last 24 hours. Also, congressman Adam Kissinger , another republican, is a rising star within the Republican Party. He is a veteran as well. He came out and urged caution in terms of how the president is speaking. I would anticipate that this is going to be a new divide of sorts for every republican that has to answer to the next 24 to 48 hours. This is because important, senator chris coons from delaware, joe biden mentioned his name on election day. People like tony blanca and, for example, all of them quietly, based upon my reporting, continuing to have conversations bidenidens campaign, and also having some meetings with his transition team. That aspect of this story is also quickly evolving. Campaign alsoump continuing to make actions. You could have a situation where the president starts firing people, etc. Tom thank you so much for the perspective. We are going to segue now to Michael Holland of holland and company, a longterm investment perspective. He is watching the recount to see if the nasdaq will go up another 10 in four days. What do you do here . Youre the only when i booked two actually remembers 1960. What do you do here to get beyond this election . Michael back to where we were last week when you had me on, and the market was tanking from some other fears. Set dont just do something stand there. In other words, take it easy. Take a deep breath. I listened to you buff humans ago before the show started here , with an expert talking about the Supreme Court getting involved. It looks as if on the legal side, the market isnt going to have anything significant to worry about. The speck from some early republicans would indicate that. I think, as lisa was saying, we have covid and the condemning to worry about next week. In that case, there are three things the market is worried about. The vaccine is going to come. The fed is going to be there at the most important part of this puzzle. They are going to continue to support the economy. For the stock market, things are going to be ok. The last thing is we will get some sort of stimulus because there will be some coming together of the two sides, may be smaller than it would have been otherwise come of the afraid of radical moves economically and tax wise. We are not going to get those because of the strong outpouring for republican voters. Some of the things in the market right now are crazy. , 19. 70t a little bit at the start of the crazy market. We had this extreme valuation for the tech stocks and some of the other stocks, and the rest of the market. That will reverse some time in our lifetimes, but right now that is not something to worry about. Thats all i have for you. Jonathan what is the evidence of worry in this market this week . Any asset class . Daniel no, gridlock is beautiful is what the market is saying right now. To the extent the Federal Reserve is going to be there, Jerome Powell has thrown the security blanket around the market, and i think the gridlock that has come about from the 80 million or whatever it is voters on the republican side has an extreme movement in washington that has dissipated. We do have the situation where you have wonderful stocks like jp morgan trading at a 13 times multiple and 3. 5 yield, and there are the things out there you can buy today even if people get a little bit worried. Jonathan no one was saying this month ago, the gridlock is beautiful. Michael holland there. Chris harvey of wells fargo two days ago. But here we are. Gridlock is beautiful, apparently. Tom i guess it is. I look at the equity markets now. We have jobs in 18 minutes as well. You mentioned jp morgan in the banks. When is the when . When do they go . Michael the great news is you and i have been in this business long enough, we know that nobody when, but we know the what. The valuely within stocks, they have financials. If we get some peace and quiet to some extent because of the gridlock in washington, the banks are going to be a place you have wished in november of 2020 you would have put some significant money in. The best of the breed is jp morgan, trading at a ridiculously below valuation. Lisa what is the covid story that is tradable at this point, given how it is worsening . Michael that is interesting. As things are coming under pressure, i think that whatever reverses lets play a game here. You and i are going to say that ao months from now, we have very successful vaccine in significant production, and looks like it is going to get distribution. What is the snapback when you get that kind of certainty . In addition to the obvious things of health care and so on, that could be a trigger for the stayathome big tech stocks to the flipside. I am lousy at shorting, so i wouldnt short the stocks, but that could be a time when they start doing opposite day maneuvers. I would say that anything that benefits from a successful vaccine introduction, i would say the great industrial stocks would probably be in that category. You would probably get some minor infrastructure lows and infrastructure legislation from washington that would help. Jonathan michael, great to catch up, as always. Appreciate your time. Michael holland of holland and company, thank you. I am really nervous about assigning these stories the price action of the last several days and extrapolating things out a week, a month, three quarter six months a year. We are on such a nice edge in places like georgia right now. In pennsylvania, this is not done. It ton fox news giving Vice President joe biden. Others have not done that. If you look at different , the narrative we are talking about right now, divided government is beautiful. All of that good stuff. That could turn around in the next 24 hours. . Hen what tom we just got new numbers on georgia. I actually get out the pen and do some math. But i go back to this, sometime this morning, probably during the open, look for that on Bloomberg Television in the 9 00 hour. We are going to get maybe they will save it for the real yield. Jonathan no real yield today. Tom are you kidding me . Jonathan tom keene would be running to the studio to wrestle the microphone away from me to have that moment. Tom i have two hours a day, and you cant do the real yield . Jonathan what do you want me to say . You want to real yield today . Tom this is unamerican. Maybe it is unbritish. Lisa look at those markets. Jonathan coming up, James Glassman, j. P. Morgan chase had economist. Futures down 32, down 0. 9 . This is bloomberg, live on radio and tv. This is bloomberg surveillance. Tightening biden is his hold on the race for the white house, now taking the lead in georgia. He also leads in nevada, and is catching up to President Trump in pennsylvania. Biden is closing in on the 270 electoral votes needed for an election when. Win. Id hes election he says he has no doubt that he will be the winner. President trump prance would trump promised lawsuits in four states, despite no evidence of illegal voting. Fed chairman Jerome Powell chairman Jerome Powell says that more fiscal and monetary support is needed because of rising Coronavirus Infections to threaten the economy. Policymakers agreed to maintain their bond buying at the current rate. In france theres been a Record Number of new coronavirus cases. Authorities reported more than 68,000 new infections, and the Government Health minister warns that there is what he called a violent second wave of the disease. France started a second locked last week. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. I think we will have a stronger recovery if we can get some more fiscal support, when it is appropriate, and in the size congress thinks is appropriate. It is good to let the systems of our doctors he do their jobs. The systems do their jobs. Jonathan alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Heres the price action. A real struggle to understand the price action this week. You reach for the comfort of a for a nice narrative of what is happening. Market, dollar still weaker. Eurodollar, 1. 1869. We are dealing with changing probabilities, moving targets. I think it is worth it to emphasize there are still these narrow avenues to a whole range of outcomes down in washington. A divided government with President Trump still in the white house and a split senate. You could have a situation where you have President Trump in the white house and republicans still controlled the senate. That is still on the table right now. You can have what has been described as that blue mist. [laughter] lisa i love that. Jonathan the base case at the moment is that you have a Biden White House and a republicancontrolled senate, but it is worth pointing out that the counting continues. It is not clear who has got the momentum and where, and it is not uniform. You can have a situation where biden has momentum in a place like pennsylvania. Can you say the same thing about nevada and arizona. Right now, i dont think you can. Tom particularly in arizona, although ricky davis talks up Maricopa County is giving us amazing data. What is really important within your observation is the percent of votes left to count up in each state. In arizona, they have a much bigger gap than in georgia and pennsylvania. We will have all of that for you in the next hour. Right now, James Glassman joins us. He has a unique position at the j. P. Morgan chase bank in commercial banking as head economist. Know when i know listens to america and American Labor economics better than jim glassman come out of northwestern. I want to rip it up today. I dont want my new i dont want my new shall i dont ae on the jobs report. In the book the rise and fall of american growth, are we jeopardizing growth with this election upset . Think so. Ont we may be divided, but we have common interests, and it is in our interest to figure out how to get more energy in the u. S. Economy. Some of the loss of momentum in the u. S. Is all related to our demographics. Some of it is related to productivity. Productivity, we are learning, is giving people businesses giving peoples business is a lot of options. Gordon,say to bob interesting idea, but i think it is a little early to write off americas growth potential. I think the challenges weve had with fiscal policy are going to focus is more focus us more on what they learned to do in the debt burden was also as high. What they did back then was they brought that debt burden way down relative to the size of the economy because we had an economic boom. That is what we need, and i think when we get this behind us, we are going to focus more on the kinds of things, infrastructure investment, immigration reform. I will let the private sector keep going on developing technology. I think we are going to find that there is going to be much more understanding of what it takes to counter what bob is worrying about. Lisa in the meantime, we have the pandemic that continues to worsen, particularly in the midwest. It looks likely that there will be increasing restrictions. That is a difficult term to use, but increasing restrictions at some of these icu beds that philip as some of these icu beds fill up. James you worry that a number round of lockdowns another round of lockdowns would lead to problems like we faced this spring. We may get there on a localized basis, but keep in mind there is a clock running on getting that vaccine out. We are getting real close to getting something, so hopefully we will get a grip on it. Personally, for all of the upheaval in the labor market, i think it is Pretty Amazing what is going on because the labor market has been improving, and if you look at the number of insured unemployed people, that has dropped 4. 5 million since the september survey. What these data are telling us is for all of the stresses and upheaval, the market is making a comeback. We are not going to get there until we get the vaccine and we feel comfortable flying. That is slowly beginning come but if you are right that there is a whole new wave coming and we have to start thinking more about