That really picked up after the good jobs number. That is the election uncertainty lets get back to election uncertainty. Joe biden has taken the lead in pennsylvania and georgia, remains ahead in nevada and georgia. We expect updates from all four today. For more, we are joined by Bloomberg Government congressional reporter emily wilkins, at the biden headquarters in wilmington, delaware. What is the latest . Emily the Biden Campaign has a tricky thing to do today. They have to continue to project confidence that biden is going to be the winner. That is what it is looking like right now. But what he also has to do is make sure that he doesnt get out there and declare victory. Biden has already said he cannot declare victory, trump cannot declare victory, but that they need to wait for the votes to be counted and for it to be called. Thank, indeed. Bloombergs thank you very much, indeed. Bloombergs emily wilkins. Lets bring in Josh Wingrove in washington. The Trump Campaign saying this race is not over. What does that mean . Josh it means they are pursuing a legal strategy to pursue this, and they still think they have arizona, but there is a lot of writing on the wall right now. The lead in pennsylvania looks poised to grow. It doesnt matter what happens in arizona, what happens in nevada or georgia. That we are minutes or hours away from one of the networks calling it for him, unless there is a surprise and some of the pennsylvania returns. Campaign is going to fight this one down to the wire it looks like, but this is starting to look pretty baked. Alix thanks a lot. Joining us is Bloomberg Government reporter kyle tricks. Any legal action the Trump Campaign takes. Where are you with that . Been a lot of them have kind of ticket tack, not major things. We havent seen the kind of major legal action that could move any of these states. Of course, trump alluded last night in his remarks to the race potentially getting to the supreme court. It seems like he thinks that is his best way to win. President s the exit plan if he does lose . Is there any chance he is going to concede . Kyle that is a great question. That is something all of us are waiting to see. He has not indicated that he is willing to do that. For years ago, we did see president obama sit in the white house with trump shortly after he won the election, and i am curious if we are going to see that with trump and biden. Alix we also heard from Kevin Cirilli moments ago that the gop caucus is going to be meeting later this afternoon. Can the republican party, not president trump, concede . Matter reallyt who concedes. If the votes are counted and biden ends up with more electoral votes, the election is over, and trump is going to have to go, regardless of who concedes and who doesnt. Presumably, with legal action ongoing, the Trump Campaign may decide that it still has a pass to victory. How long could that last for . How long could that period be . Ine there are dates set up the United States laws about wind electoral votes counted. Eventually the legal action is going to have to come to an end. We havent seen the kind of to believe that theres going to be enough standing for legal action to continue beyond the new year, which is when the electoral votes get counted. Continue to cover this minute by minute. Kyle trygstad joining us with the latest. Pricing all of this income a payrolls, what is happening with the markets, we are joined by Nick Maroutsos, head of global bonds at janus henderson. Walk us through your perspective on the price action this week end where it leaves us. Nick it has been a wild week. We have seen a roundtrip in government bonds, starting up selling off as soon as the election started, and then rallying and ultimately settling off a little bit today post payrolls. It is important to decouple step. Ack it looks like biden is going to win, like the republicans are going to control the senate. Gridlock is likely here to stay, depending on if run a cup the bening on what happens, if there are runoff elections in georgia. It but it means that tax consequences probably wont be a severe. The likelihood of a green deal passing is likely not going to happen. Ultimately, both sides are going to have to work toward the greater good of giving us of getting us through this covid crisis. Alix thank of america say they are recommending shorting the 10 year. They think the postelection rally is an overreaction. What do you thing of that call . Nick 10 year rates can selloff, but ultimately there is going to be a lid on rates, whether that is done by the fed through yield curve control or by the market. If you look globally where yields are trading, the u. S. Is going to stick out is very attractive for foreign investors. Other countries are saddled with very low Interest Rates. Ultimately that is going to be a buying opportunity. Ultimately, the fed understands that they cant handle higher Interest Rates. It will be a burden on the economy. It will destabilize growth, and i think ultimately what you are going to see is the focus of the fed to reengineer some of their discussions around yield curve control, keeping a cap on Interest Rates, maintaining a deaf a stance. Guy if they want a defensive stance. Guy if i want yields, where do i go . Nick you could have made your year or even two by owning equities this week compared to bonds. Theres really two things that we know about the fixed income market. In active credit, and the fed is on hold. No central bank is going to be raising Interest Rates anytime soon. The bar to be raising Interest Rates is higher than it has ever been. We are talking anywhere between three to five years before we see Interest Rate hikes. Focus on the front end. The yield isnt attractive, but it is safe. You dont have the volatility you do by owning the backend. Moving, andd is not that is because the markets are pricing in these Central Banks to remain on hold. If you can focus on yield and australia and even the u. S. , and also combine that with Investment Grade credit, youre not going to get five, 6 , 7 , but you will get a decent income stream. Alix how do you see the environment shaping out . If we are looking at a gridlock government, you may not get the big fiscal bang that was expected. In europe, you are getting both. How does that inform your trade . Nick for us, the fed is the only game in town. Politicians change. We all know that. What has been the only constant over the last two decades . The fed. Yellen,n, bernanke, powell. They all sing the same tune. They are all dovish. Ultimately, the fed policies is going to be what is driving markets, and i think the market actually understands that, which is why you have seen such a bid in risk assets. Ultimately they are there to backstop that. I am not sure if it is going to do the trick and bridge just to the end of this crisis, but ultimately, the only game in town is the fed, and that should be the primary focus, not necessarily who wins the election. Guy i had a chance to talk to the governor of the bank of england earlier this week, and we were talking about tools still left in the box. There is this consensus that the toolbox is pretty empty right now. The since i got from the governor is there are other things that can still be done. How empty is the box . How far can we still go with Central Banks in terms of their creativity . Nick you are right, the consensus around Central Banks is that they are at their limits, but our belief is that they are far from it. Central banks are going to stop at nothing, keep risk assets elevated, and also provide an environment that can bridge the gap between now and the end of the crisis. I think we are much closer to the end of the crisis then we are today beginning, so that is a positive sign. Ultimately, positive news will prevail, and that will lead us to the promised land, for lack of a better term. I guess my point is dont underestimate the fed. Dont underestimate these Central Banks. Every round of quantitative easing has less of an effect on the market, but it is still there to provide support, and ultimately, if you look at the fed, they can start buying other assets that they havent decided to purchase yet. Whether that moves into high yield structured assets and more liquid assets, the bank of england and others can likely do the same. Alix rounding it out for this segment, some rhetoric is that em is the safe haven. Go buy it. What do you think . It is a tough one. Certainly em offers that yield advantage, but emerging markets are going to behave like risk assets. In our view, it doesnt necessarily provide a dev of the cage and story or that a diversification story or that income protection, but it does provide a yield advantage over treasuries or Investment Grade credit to some extent. The problem you have with em is it is sort of like the table that wags the dog. What happens in the u. S. And some of these larger economies is really going to dictate what happens in em. Isaac the jury is still out there. I think personally, would be ,ocusing on regions like asia singapore, hong kong, very strong nations with strong balance sheets, as opposed to some of the more difficult to understand em countries in south america or even eastern europe. Alix nick, you are sticking with us. Hang tight. As we had to break, youre looking at a live shot of Allegheny County warehouse in pennsylvania, where ballots are being counted. This is bloomberg. Chair powell the outlook for the economy is extraordinarily uncertain and will depend on efforts to keep the virus and check. The u. S. G new cases in and abroad is particularly concerning. Guy fed chair Jerome Powell on the outlook for the of the economy. Joining us to discuss what we heard from the fed and todays payroll number, bloombergs mike mckee. Solid number today. Michael solid number come about the 638,000 jobs that were restored in the month of october is lower than we saw in the prior month, and september. Since the recovery began, each month it has been lower. That does suggest that jay powell is right. The virus comes back, and job creation slows. That is going to be a problem going on. But look at the Unemployment Rate. That is the best news of the day, down 1 last month. That came even though the liver force expanded and the Labor Force Participation rate rose. So it is the good kind of drop in unemployment. Created, much better than forecast, but lower than it was deprived month then it was the prior months. Average Hourly Earnings increasing, still missing a number of people at the lower end of the economic spectrum. That suggests that we are going to see outsized gains on a monthtomonth basis, but this is not what is important for the fed right now. There is no inflation out there. As we go forward, we are going to be looking to see what happens with the stimulus package and with the fed. Look at the total number of people on payrolls, and it is still one million below where it was in february. A lot of people need additional help. Going forward, you are going to see some pressure on congress between now and the end of the year. Does that translate to the fed . It is harder to know because they dont have the same kind of ability to add stimulus to the economy. They can push down on Interest Rates and keep rates near zero. That will help stock investors, but it does not help the person in this category here. Alix thanks a lot. Still with us is Nick Maroutsos of janus henderson. This is what we see in jobs now. The virus is picking up. We have regional rolling lockdowns in europe. We could see that here in the u. S. , yet nothing coming from d. C. What kind of stimulus do we need, and how soon do we need it . Needed immediately we need it immediately. I think we are on the right trajectory, but we are certainly going to need new stimulus to hold us over, whether that is one round or even two rounds depending on how long the virus lasts. I would caution people to look at the top line number because i think that helps the entire story. Implement relative to population is still well below where we were precrisis, and that is because i think we are going to have some lasting damage. Theres many sectors that have been affected, many jobs that have been affected. I am not ready to sound the all clear, but also not super negative on the situation either. I think we will get back to precovid levels, but it is going to take much longer than what people anticipate. Guy what is a stimulus that is going to have an effect . How big does it need to be . Be at leastds to 500 at a minimum, likely more to bridge that gap for the next few months. Whenever we going to get that . Assuming biden wins the presidency, are we going to have an environment where the house, the senate, the president can . Ass something is trump going to play nice until the inauguration happens . Ultimately, risk assets will still do well over this time because they will know what is coming, but as long as we can keep things under control, we are certainly going to need something that is pretty sizable. Alix alix the talk now is do we get a doubledip recession in europe. The forecast wasnt great from the european commission. Is that going to become the . Onversation here nick i dont think so. Ultimately we will get a package. I think we are on the right track. Again, this sort of goes back to the comments we made last segment. Theres no reason why bond yields should be rising significantly based on any of this news because we are still in the middle of a pandemic. Yes, we have to balance the situation of lots of job losses with what is now a very positive equity market, but a lot of that is fed induced. It goes back to the fed being the only game in town. Theyve solved the market function, but they havent solved the economic one, nor should they be in charge of solving the economic one. That falls on the government, and that is going to be through fiscal planning. Ultimately i think we wont go through a doubledip recession. We will hit some speed bumps along the way. But that doesnt mean we are sounding the all clear to go heavy into risk assets. Guy when i woke up this morning, the twostens spread was execs or where it was a month ago. What does that tell me about where the market is . Have we priced out politics . 500 is certainly significantly less then what we were talking about only a few weeks ago. What do i read into the price action of the last month . Was it all about the election . Do we now put that to one side . That is what it looked like to me. Were i think the markets looking for a reason to rally. If you looked one or two weeks ago, it was all about the blue wave. The blue wave was going to allow risk assets and bond yields to rise. Gettinge no issues anything through congress and whatnot. Now we are talking about gridlock, and that is a positive story. It is really sort of mindboggling, but ultimately the gridlock situation is better for the private sector, and ultimately the private sector is the one that drives the u. S. Economy. But you are right, i think if we look at the market, they were looking for a reason to rally. As far as the twostens spread, we were never Firm Believers that it was going to stephen materially. If you told us we were going to come out of this covid situation over the next week or so, we probably would agree with that, but they are not moving because the fed is on hold, and they are not moving anytime soon. 1 , butht move up to they are going to be met with a lot of demand, and it is a disadvantage for the u. S. Economy to have higher Interest Rates. Guy nick, have a great weekend. Try to get some rest. Thank you very much, indeed. This is bloomberg. Guy live from london, im guy johnson. This is bloomberg markets. The u. S. Election, central bank meetings, topped off with the jobs number out of the u. S. Today. Scarlet fu is looking at how they all played out in etf land. Scarlet nothing really happened this week. One of the themes this week is adding big on big tex. Buy and hold vestment. These are shortterm plays. There is a triple leveraged bet on the nasdaq 100. You can see that saw big outflows the last few days. The bottom panel over here, that is the mirror. It is three times the inverse of the nasdaq 100, and we have seen some big inflows as well. Again, shortterm plays. This week when you look at the price action, all 11 groups in the s p 500 have finished higher by quite a big margin, at least 3 . , healthhere are tech care, communication services, and consumer discretionary. Aside from health care, all of the big tech names embodied in some of those sectors. Technology is there, but only number three. When it comes to financials, this may reveal more about how people are underweight the sector overall. Divided government should be a big boon for banks. Also remember the yield curve has been steepening. We have seen every permutation of this blue wave idea play out. The yield curve has generally been steepening, and that is good news for the banks. Lets talk about a couple of themes. A play on green energy got a lot of money coming in around late september early october. The cannabis etf was another big seem play as well. Alix thanks so much. Coming up, stimulus and the labor market. We will speak to martin mucci about when it is needed and where. This is bloomberg. I feel like were forgetting something. Let me check. Xfinity home gives you peace of mind from anywhere with professionally monitored Home Security built around you. No, i think were good. Good. So when youre away, you dont have to worry. The tent. We forgot. The tent. 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