The most important issue. The blur of information we are getting, the effect on the markets, the effect on the nations politics, it doesnt matter. The pandemic statistics, the cases, the hospitalizations, and yes, rising death rates are front and center. Jonathan couldnt agree more. The conversation is so familiar to everyone sitting in london, in europe watching this play out. You start at 10 00 p. M. Curfew you start to limit dining. Then what . That is the concern for a lot of people this morning. Tom im going to use the hands up. That has proven so effective on radio worldwide. Think of it like three hockey bucks of death in europe. Inis only one hockey puck the United States. Europe is way out front of this, and i am frightened by the idea we will begin to see the deaths expand. The other thing i am frightened by, lisa takes a day off, and rumor has it she left day bear, and i think shes returned a bull. [laughter] jonathan lets see how long this one last. I reckon we can get to about 7 05. [laughter] lisa ive revived. Sleep is a good thing. I heard all these lovely messages that i cashed out of my triple leveraged airline stocks, but on apartment in 15 central park west, and was Binge Watching alan partridge, so thank you both for all of the illuminating information about what i was doing yesterday. I will say, very keen to see whether some of the data are talking about is bleeding into the data. I know you will say this is me already becoming bearish, but at 8 30 am, we will get initial jobless claims. Basically, you might see a little bit of improvement over last week, but Bloomberg Economics expects still 730,000 additional u. S. Jobless claims as we see the increase in virus counts. Also, we are expecting a muted inflation print. U. S. Crude Oil Inventories comes as the iea ratchets back expectations for demand for oil. We are looking to see if you see a commensurate build in inventories or a decline that is less than people expect. At 1 00 p. M. , tom, this is your favorite. The u. S. Is going to sell a record 20 billion of 30 year bonds as yields just come off of the highest levels since march. The key issue yes, tom, what . Tom no, continue. [laughter] lisa i am just curious to see how much demand versus buyers who are going to lock in these yields because they see Slower Growth and they dont think a vaccine is going to preside going to provide a panacea for growth going forward. Tom over here, weve got almost normal auction markets. Does look are have normal full facing does lagarde have normal, full facing markets . Jonathan define normal. You could probably sell it to the ecb. I dont think theres anything normal about bond markets worldwide at the moment. I want to touch on the price action. Tom keene, when he cuts into people and says i dont mean to interrupt, what else do you mean if they are midsentence and you Say Something . Tom i dont know. I am stressed out. I am starting to think about thanks giving. Jonathan in the fx market, eurodollar 1. 1810. Theres a really interesting inverse correlation between cyclical appetite and performance in the euro, not what you might expect. Eurodollar is positive, s p futures negative. As lisa mentioned, and the long end of the curve, yields come in three basis points. We got to a new upper end of the range on the 10 year treasury, and then pulled back a little. It to 0. 94 interesting whether we can really get through 1 and asked the question how much oxygen is north of that level. Tom what i would really go with is yesterday, granted, the bond market closed, and today you are getting a reversion back to where the tech nasdaq leads the way up and down. You are getting back to more normal equity dynamics of the election vaccine oddity of a few days ago. Jonathan lets bring in david kelley, jp morgan Asset Management chief global strategist. Opus understand two things. ,earterm outlook darkening mediumterm outlook getting brighter. How do you navigate those two things at the moment . David one is the good things about being a bear is you can hibernate. I think a lot of people would like to hibernate for the next few months. It is going to be difficult for the economy, very difficult for peoples lives. We think that growth in the u. S. Is going to slow down to about 3 , if that, over the next quarter or two. Beyond that, the vaccine news is good news, and we are past the election uncertainty in reality of whatever maybe going on in washington right now. Vaccine is a big difference because it means we will be able to squash this thing. It does mean that growth will pick up a lot in the second half of next year as people get back to normal and do all the things they havent been able to do for a year and a half. But we do have to go through a pretty rough time for the economy and society between now and then. Help us with the application of when strategists shift and go bullish. Jp morgan again shifting to a more bullish tact as well. How does your world change when a team at j. P. Morgan gets more bullish, like Lisa Abramowitz . [laughter] david obviously we try to do the research ourselves. We are trying not to be influenced by other teams. But there is a logic to this thing. Stocks, ponds, even longterm bonds are very longterm investments, youve got to look out and fade whatever emotion is in the market at the time. Rising case count is dreadful from many perspectives, but youve got to look beyond that. I think the other thing that is very important for World Markets in general is with a new administration, i think youre going to have more certainty on trade. I think thats one of the reasons the dollar is going down but a falling dollar is advantageous for many reasons. I think it will help emerging markets. It should help s p 500 earnings. And a divided government means you dont necessarily get an increase in corporate taxes. There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic once we get past this pandemic. Lisa you said fade the emotion in markets, a fascinating turn of phrase at a time when the emotion we have seen, at least so far this week, has been borderline euphoric. Are you fighting the hope that they are having next year, or do you still think we have some pessimism baked into markets where they are . David i dont mean that. I mean the emotion bubbling up in society, and will bubble up over the next week. The case counts are rising very rapidly, so if it keeps on the same trajectory, within a week, people are going to be talking about nothing but the misery that covid is inflicting on us, shutdowns and lockdowns, and business in trouble. I am not necessarily talking about the emotion of the last week and the weirdness after the election. I am talking about what is just ahead of us here. I think people should recognize that there is light at the end of the tunnel, even though the tunnel itself right now is getting darker. Jonathan it keeps coming back to the same question we have asked repeatedly. How much bad news is this market willing to ignore . How much . Weve got problem is this market which is being supported by very easy central banks. There is nowhere else to go. Thats what is supporting the market. I think the market can probably look through a fair amount of that. Until there is something that is going to pull money away from goividuals and that needs to to work. Where is it going to work . Longer term, as uncertainty momentum got a lot of in making cap growth stocks. Thats got to be the continuing trade of 2020. I think as uncertainty diminishes and you get back to a more normal economy, particularly if you get a correction at some stage, people are going to focus more on valuation. Valuations look a lot better in u. S. Value stocks, em, and developing International Stocks than they do in the s p 500 overall, particularly in mega cap growth stocks. Jonathan david, great to catch up with you. Avett kelly of j. P. Morgan Asset Management, thank you. David kelly of j. P. Morgan Asset Management, thank you. Senator cotton from arkansas, we have time to reach an orderly resolution on the election. That is the approach at the moment. A lot of people seemingly share that relaxed attitude to what is taking place. Tom washington waking up in about an hour and a half, and you really wonder what the news will be today. I am focused on the cia director and her future. That is all speculation right now. She did meet with senator mcconnell yesterday. Theres any number of themes here as well. Issuesly it is a stew of we are looking at was in politics, this renewed pandemic, and just trying to keep track of the market. Look at the china news we have seen in the last two hours. Jonathan you know the really interesting thing . I would giggle, the fed decision, when we heard from sharon a week ago, the fed decision, when we heard from chair powell. Since then, we had vaccine news, increasing covid cases, a president elect, a contested. Lection that is where the emphasis still is. We thought it would shift from Monetary Policy to fiscal. This is still a Monetary Policy story. Tom i thought david kelly was great, how he said his vision is not influenced so much by other divisions. It is a lot like you and me, how you and i are not influence by lisas new bullishness. [laughter] jonathan not at all. Lisa oil barrels, i recommend them. Its nice to get some sleep. The bear hibernated. Jonathan we will try and wander up through the next couple of hours. Great to have lisa back in the seat. Much more still to come. Heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, the beautiful city here. I understand a great new york over the last couple of weeks, too. This is bloomberg. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. The state of georgia will conduct a hand recount of ballots for the president ial race. Joe biden leads President Trump by a slim margin of about 14,000 votes after roughly 5 million cast. The Trump Campaign has alleged there were widespread voting irregularities, but has offered no proof. President elect joe biden has klain longtime aid ronald to be his chief of staff. He played a role during the crises of the Obama Administration. The job is one of the most powerful in washington, the gatekeeper for the president. Moderna is now poised to take the spotlight on a coronavirus taxing. Its study has accumulated more than 50 three infections. That will allow preliminary analysis of its effectiveness to begin. Moderna didnt predict how long it could take an independent Monitoring Committee to analyze the data. Wells fargo is considering whether to sell another of its businesses. Bloomberg has learned the bank is exploring the sale of its Unit Offering store branded credit cards. It is also engaging interest in other businesses, such as its asset manager and student loan portfolio. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. We are well on our way to over 200,000 cases a day. Our Health Care Systems are already overwhelmed in may locations in the country. That is only going to continue to increase as these new numbers add up. They are already in the pipeline if we dont have some immediate action for people to distance themselves from sharing the air with other people, which i dont see happening. Jonathan Biden Covid Task force member weighing in on the situation in the United States of america right now, and that situation is worsening. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Heres the price action this thursday morning. Good morning to you all. A little later today, we hear from chairman powell, president le guard, and governor bailey ash president president lagarde, and governor bailey all on the same panel. Down three or four basis points on the 10 year, just south of 94 basis points. We rollover on equity futures just a bit, down 0. 4 on the s p. On the nasdaq, still positive, but by just 0. 1 at the moment. Tom looking for direction. Maybe we will see that at 8 30 with the cpi report. We just heard from dr. Os terholm. Emily wilkins has our wonderful coverage of team biden in delaware. Right now, maybe focus on the pandemic. Emily wilkins, right now, six months ago there would be a 4 00 p. M. Rose garden press conference. They would be trotted out. The president would say fauci, etc. Now that is not the case. What is washington doing today about the pandemic . Emily number one, we can look at what congress is doing. They have restarted talks about a potential stimulus. This is something both pelosi and Mitch Mcconnell have been asked about. However, it does seem like we are running into some of the same roadblocks we were before the election. Republicans and mcconnell once a more streamlined bill. That is something democrats and nancy pelosi have said they wont accept. You give the Biden Campaign talking much more about their plan for the pandemic. They are putting together a task force on that particular issue, starting to make recommendations and be ready to hit the ground running. Tom wisconsin is having huge trouble with beds. Idaho sends their sickest to utah, i assume to salt lake. They cant do that anymore. What is the present administration doing this morning about the increase in hospitalizations . Emily that is a great question. We are keeping an eye only Trump Administration today to see what, if anything, we are hearing from them. It is something we were expecting, another spike in the winter with flu season. Now we are seeing that play out in the numbers. Tom this is the issue jonathan this is the issue. It is november 12. We cant wait until january 20 for policy. It is not just about the white house, either. It is about Congress Getting something done. For these states to introduce something more restrictive and get society to come along, you need something from the fiscal side. If you do think you need to be more restrictive, lets be clear about that. Tom emily, you are in the halls of congress. What in the halls of congress are they doing today about the here and now . Again, it is back to those stimulus negotiations, back to those discussions. As you point out, because we are seeing this dire need for beds, for hospitals, that might wind up putting more pressure on lawmakers because that is what we saw back in march with the first wave coming. Everyone said we need to get things done. People could put their partisanship aside and get something done, so that might actually put pressure on lawmakers. Point, in the house, a lot of them are still working through the election. Some of them are not even formally reelected yet. Lisa when you talk about bipartisanship at a time when youve got democrats accusing republicans of staging some sort coup, andhannel republicans saying the democrats havent really won the presidency, you wonder how much oxygen that sucks out of the room to get anything done. Can anything get done given the level of venom right now in washington, d. C. . Emily Senate Majority leader Mitch Mcconnell said he does want to get some stimulus passed before the end of the year. Mcconnell knows he is coming back next year. Nancy pelosi knows she is coming back next year. Lawmakers in washington will at least be there until january, and may be now with the election behind them, there is a drive to get something done for the american people. I think the question is what does that actually look like in terms of funding. Jonathan emily, great to catch up, as always. Enjoy hearing from you. This is what we heard from Governor Cuomo yesterday. He tweeted out the following. Is taking steps to respond to the rising covid numbers. Anywhere with a state Liquor License asked close at 10 00 p. M. Gyms must also close at 10 a clock p. M. The statewide rules will take effect on friday. There are restrictions on how we people you can have in your home as well. This is where things get really complicated for people and you get society pushing back. If you are telling people they cant stay out after 10 00 p. M. , you are pushing them indoors. If they dont speak to that rule of 10, and i have no idea it no idea how it gets enforced, then you have another issue on your hands. Tom i want to get back to another issue which is childcare. Isor de blasio in new york right on top of this literally as we speak. You wonder what new York City Schools are going to do thursday and into friday. Jonathan do you get the sense that mayor de blasio and Governor Cuomo are working handinhand in a decent way . Lisa you know the answer to that. They have a historic rivalry, and there is a question of how much they are trying to upstage one another, and how much is cooperation. I think they do agree something needs to be done. To your point, what kind of cohesive message is it when you start to talk about 10 a clock p. M. Closures . It is hard to see how that is necessarily going to stave off some of the numbers that stricter measures. Jonathan i can just see a similar response to it compared to what we went through here in london several weeks ago, several months ago. I dont want to be to new york centric this morning. El paso, the numbers out of there are just scary. Tom this is what is really important here, the overlay of income distribution, of poverty, and also of the morbidities that are out there right now. It speaks to obesity. It speaks to age. It speaks to a lot of other social issues. As we mentioned with emily wilkins, i just dont understand the rigidities in washington over the immediate, which to me seems worse than april. Maybe i am off on that. Jonathan in some places it is. We can crunch the numbers later in the program. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Much more still to come. A little later today, you will be hearing from chairman powell, president lagarde, and governor bailey. Up next on this program, you will hear from chris ver Strategas Research partners. This is bloomberg. [announcer] imagine having fuller, thicker, more voluminous hair instantly. All it takes is just one session at hairclub. Introducing xtrands. Xtrands adds hundreds or even thousands of hair strands to your existing hair at the root. Theyre personalized to match your own natural hair color and texture, so theyll blend right in for a natural, effortless look. Call in the next five minutes and when you buy 500 strands, you get 500 strands free. Call right now. upbeat music jonathan from new york and london, for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance. Just a little bit defensive this morning. Equity futures on the s p 500 down 0. 3 . Nasdaq futures slightly positive. Thanks in europe up 15 on the week, down 2 on the session. Treasuries getting interesting. A new upper end of the trading range of the last six months. 97 ,d now around here pushing 1 . Year, 0. 9374 . In foreign exchange, i think this is one of the more fascinating things that has happened this week, or rather has not happened this week. Cyclical appetite returned. What happened with the e uro . Eurodollar traded negative on a cyclical appetite. By . I dont know why . I dont know. Up 0. 2 . R, 1. 1805, i find it absolutely fascinating what is going on with the e uro, that inverse correlation. Tom euro is about 54 of dx why, and 92. 93, you can round that up to 93 now. We have trouble seeing a weaker dollar this morning. Somebody i want to do speak to after the festivities in the market of the last number of days is chris to for is Christopher Verrone of strategas. He knows that there are two ways of looking at the market. One is stochastic, which is basically catching a rising or falling knife in the dark, and the other is trend based analysis. We fervently believe in trend based analysis. Trend did we adjust the the other day with what appeared to be a massive shift, and massive . Jump condition did the trend shift a massive shift, a massive jump condition . Did the trend shift . Christopher i dont think so. The trend going in is often the trend going out. We have been in a bull market. We remain in a bull market. I think what is key is how that extends or permeates across asset classes. Bond yields were going up for months leading into this. The curve was steeping. It has continued to stephen. Small caps were improving to steepen. Small caps were improving. I think it is magnified the trends that were already in place. On Agoldman Sachs fundamental basis, j. P. Morgan on a fundamental basis, go verrone to the moon. Have forer and they some time. I think that kind of brings up what we could see as a potential risk over the next number of months, that enthusiasm becomes a little bit too pronounced. There is nothing that worries me more in this business then confidence, conviction, and certainty. There hasnt been much of that for a lot of people across the street over the last number of months. I do think that is returning here, and that is something as analysts, we have to be more on guard about over the next number of months. The sentiment is starting to run a little too high. We are not there yet. It has to be something on our radar, whether enthusiasm is getting to robust. Jonathan that is where i wanted to go. We listened to the language yesterday, j. P. Morgan talking about markets over the last couple of days, goldman talking about the roaring 1920s. What do you see in the numbers . Christopher number one, i like to look at aggregated flows. I like to look at flows into the the detect names into xpy, the tech name. When you tend to get numbers into the 90th, 95th percentile, that is a warning zone that flows are too aggressively directionally there. Right now we are at about the 70th percentile, so there is still room to go. But it is certainly on our radar over the next couple of weeks. People look at the survey data. I dont love the survey data. What people say they are doing with their money is often very different than what people are actually doing their money. Watch where the money goes. Watch the flow data. Jonathan lets talk about where the money went this week. Europe in a huge way. That catchup trade really kicked in. Walk me through your thoughts on that at the moment, whether it was just a one off reprice or just something more. Christopher we wrote this last week, european lockdowns . What european lockdowns . You have continuing outperformance in europe. You have the banks waking up for the first time in several years. Tone is so much different than how the market interpreted the virus and the lockdowns in february, march and april. I think that as market analysts, we have to be really respectful of it. We can all have our opinions of how this shakes out, but at the end of the day, it is the market opinion. I think how the market is rewarding cyclicality in europe is a very compelling story. Lisa i want to unpacklisa a little bit of this concept. That is market continuing to be available. When do we know we have already priced in the next cycle . In other words, we have already sufficiently priced in next years rotation into cyclicals, next years vaccine, and everything getting sort of back to normalcy . Christopher i think it is early to make that case. I want to revisit something we said in the show two weeks ago. We very much are believers in the idea that we just had a multiyear bear market cyclicality. I think that multiyear we are market cyclicality is over. And i am talking about things like small caps and industrials and materials, aussie dollar and copper. These are all things that peaked not in 2020, but three years ago , late 2017, early 2018. So i think after a couple of good months of cyclicality working, it is still way too premature to say that good news is now priced in. Look at small caps as an example. The russell 2000 has been sideways for three years. No one has made any money there until this week. Even in our trend, small versus large has now reversed. I think the character is changing, and we are magnifying a lot of the changes that have been set in motion over the last several months. Lisa i know that tom is listening and thinking, is this an entry point . I want to shift gears to the bond market. Theres a question of high high of how high yields can go before they become a buy. Significant,is as or do you thing that yields can rise further from here . Christopher i think what is so striking to us is when Security Prices dont respond to news as one would suspect they would. If you look at the last two weeks, but was initially interpreted as an election that would prove to be associated with lower bond yields, that lasted for about an hour on wednesday, and then you saw bond yields recover back to new highs and continue to push forward. You had all of the virus news, all of the lockdowns. It hasnt affected bond yields. So bond yields seem to be in their own world here. Our guess is they want to gravitate toward 1. 30 . I think theres a lot of magnetic forces pulling the bond yield to that neighborhood. That is ultimately where we think they go over the next 12 months. What is more important is it is giving us a bear stephen or a bear steepener. It tends to be accompanied by a very different equity market leadership than what we have had over the past number of years. Tom i want to go narrow from your research note. If we have em enthusiasm, is the xy, the asianh ad currency index x japan, or is there something that gives you more information . Christopher i think that is one of the most important charts out there. At the end of the day, em is going to work. We cant be in a situation where there is capital light from emerging markets. I think the currency market is the best barometer of that. Urrency is weakening in em that has been the story over the last couple of years. We think that is changing now. We think that part of the world is attracting capital. The emerging market etf is now about 40 china, so a bet on em is really a bet on china here. I think if you look at this broader to develop data as well, our biggest call in that region has been japan. Japan is the 30 year no one is talking about. This is one of the best charts we can find anywhere, and i think comparatively it gets very little attention. Own japan. It hasnt worked for three decades. It is starting to work now. Jonathan lets get a little bit kneedeep in about it in that in a moment. Thats what we can do on a program like this. Em isggest weight in alibaba. If you want to own japan, what do you want to own . What do you mean . Christopher i think when you look in japan, what is remarkable is the diversity of the stocks that have worked. Everything from sony to japanese machinery, to japanese robotics. It is actually a very diverse index. One of the things when we talk about japan, most look to the nikkei 225 as their benchmark. I would encourage viewers to look at the nikkei 500, the broader version. It is already above the december 1989 highs. The nikkei 225 is still 30 or 40 away from the old highs. The broader index has already broken out, so this movie is broad under the surface in japan. The other thing i would note with respect to nikkei, the largest weight is toyota. It is on the verge of breaking out of that range. It is right on the verge of a fiveyear breakout. We think global autos into sized by that name is something you can get paid for here. Jonathan chris, great to catch up. Great work as always. There. Errone tom i loaded the boat on the the nky about 199100 1991, and it worked like a charm. [laughter] jonathan the story finally came out. There was a once upon a time. There was an entry point, back in the late 80s and early 90s in japan for tom keene. Lisa anyone looking for a reason behind the triple leveraged allcash fund only has to look back to 1991, the scars for tom keene. Jonathan alongside tom keene and lisa brown what and lisa brehm whats and lisa abram owicz, im jonathan vera. Tom, you know i have to go. It is the sequencing of the programming. [laughter] herding cats. That is on my resume. Futures 13, down 0. 3 . This is bloomberg. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. President trump suffered two setbacks as he tried to claim victory in the state of arizona. The state attorney general told foxbusiness it was highly unlikely the president would catch up when remaining ballots are counted. He also said he has had no evidence of widespread fraud the Trump Campaign has alleged. President elect joe biden has stopped his transistor ash has stocked his Transition Team has stopped his Transition Team with experts and Obama Administration officials. Still, liberals are concerned about the number of tech executives biden has included. The british economy expanded the most on record in the third quarter. Growth surged 15. 5 after falling almost 20 in the second quarter. Still, the recovery is less than any of its g7 peers. Meanwhile, there has been an ,ncrease in coronavirus cases with the british output the worst since april. The Worlds Largest freetrade agreement could be completed this weekend between japan, australia, and new zealand, in the quest for beijings greater economic integration. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Testing is the only game in town to get people back to some kind of normal and the very near future because even with the u. K. Getting earlier access to a vaccine, it will take a year and to have to to vaccinate the entire country. And of course, this is a global issue, not just a u. K. Based issue. It is going to take much longer before even the fastest vaccine can have a massive impact around the world. Jonathan that was the heathrow ceo catching up with guy johnson in the last couple of days. Onuge issue of getting that corridor between london and new york functioning again. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Heres the price action this thursday. Just a little bit more defensive on the s p 500, 12, down 0. 3 . Eurodollar south of 1. 18. A little bit later, chair powell, president lagarde, governor bailey we we speaking governor bailey will be speaking on the same panel. Tenured yield comes down to 0. 94 . American airlines on monday popped 15 , then faded tuesday, down 6 , faded wednesday, down 2. 75 . That is the tugofwar between the shortterm, not pretty, the longterm, hopeful. Tom and American Airlines with that Equity Offering that was challenged, to say the least. We take great pride in whom we speak to about this pandemic. We have talked to steve riley at imperial college, peter hotez out of baylor, and right now, aert ko of Yale University professor of epidemiology. That barely describes his focus on the heart of the matter right now, which is transition dynamics. He is worldclass in this, and we are thrilled he could join us. Are you smarter about the transmission dynamics of this virus then you were in april . Dr. Ko thank you very much for the invitation. With respect to whether we are smarter, i am not sure that is the best way to describe it. We have learned more about how this virus transmits, who it transmits, and where it transmits. I think what we are not necessarily smarter is learning that lesson and translating it into policy. Tom but we have a policy void. Can we wait until january 20 . Please color for me the urgency of policy right now in the final days of the trumpet ministration. The Trump Administration. Dr. Ko we are at a critical moment right now, and we cant wait until january for effective action. We are on the exponential curve , not only in the United States, but also in the northeast of the country, we were hit hard in the early part of the epidemic, and now we are having a resurgence at this moment. Define exponential for us, if you can, with the numbers you are seeing currently, and whether what youre saying is once you reach that kind of rate of change, inevitably the only way to handle this is to lock back down again. Is that what youre implying . Dr. Ko i will take the first part. What do i mean by exponential curve. This is a virus that propagates bypose and person persontoperson contact. When there is uncontrolled transmission, and people are undergoing doubling rates, what the response to that is is actually to do several things. We know the evidence and we have learned this in the last 10 months. A face face mask wear mask. Use barrier interventions do prevent people from being exposed to the virus. Decrease the social contact rate. That doesnt necessarily mean a lockdown, but when the cat is out of the bag or we have a wildfire in growth, lockdown as we have seen in the early stages of the epidemic is one of the prospective interventions. Lisa when we talk about what types of interventions are necessary i think we have to revisit how contagious this is an the main methods of transmission. Theres discussion about whether the decision to close bars early, whether that does anything. What do we know so far about the main modes of transmission, other than people looking at each other for more than 15 minutes and speaking and singing at each other . Thato we know persontoperson contact drives transmission. You can break it down into three parts. One is the transmission through respiratory droplets. ,hese travel roughly six feet and that type of transmission is fueled by close contact, physical contact. The second is through what we , someone sneezing or coughing onto a surface. Smallerd is aerosols, droplets that travel much further. But what we know now, we dont actually have the exact figures, but the large majority of transmission is actually fueled by the kind of close contact through respiratory droplets within six feet. Thats good news, and the sense that we know how to address that. Use the face mask and maintain physical this tensing in that scenario physical distancing in that scenario. Tom salvador, brazil is 1000 miles or so north of rio. You have had a huge commitment they are their medicine and microbiology. I say this with great respect. Do you trust the statistics out of brazil, out of south america, and out of mexico . I think the key issue with surveillance in the numbers and getting reliable numbers is this is an issue in the United States, around public testing. Being able to just people who are symptomatically the disease, and to test the vulnerable populations in those settings. This is truly a challenge in the United States. This is a challenge throughout poorer countries in developing countries, and even richer countries among that group such as brazil. Certainly there are two key issues. One is the Government Investment in the response. We have seen the kind of problems that brazil has had to do political concerns in the last eight to 10 months. The other is there are places in brazil which are doing extensive testing, places like sao paulo and many of the states. Salvador rking, the city i work in, salvador, they are doing a lot of testing. But i think what is more important than the actual number is the trends and where they are going. In many cases they are going up or staying the same. Jonathan appreciate your time this morning. Thanks for being with us. Come back soon. Of yalert ko university. The equity market down about 19 points for the s p 500, 0. 1 . A little bit of weakness creeping in. Tom its not that it is uncorrelated. It has just been disjoint all morning. I guess that is the way to put it. Jonathan let me take you to augusta national, live coverage and playbyplay of the masters on bloomberg radio, 1 00 p. M. Eastern. We really need to know we are going to get stimulus, Real Infrastructure spending. I think the vaccine should be seen as a global fiscal stimulus. The vaccine is really the game changer to bring us back to normalcy. It will take time for the vaccine to be deployed, and in the meantime, we still have many hurdles. Everything is going to be lower and flatter for longer. Theres just a lot of cash on the sidelines that needs to be put to work. This is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. Tom good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us on o
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