The most important issue. The blur of information we are getting, the effect on the markets, the effect on the nations politics, it doesnt matter. The pandemic statistics, the cases, the hospitalizations, and yes, rising death rates are front and center. Jonathan couldnt agree more. The conversation is so familiar to everyone sitting in london, in europe watching this play out. You start at 10 00 p. M. Curfew you start to limit dining. Then what . That is the concern for a lot of people this morning. Tom im going to use the hands up. That has proven so effective on radio worldwide. Think of it like three hockey bucks of death in europe. Inis only one hockey puck the United States. Europe is way out front of this, and i am frightened by the idea we will begin to see the deaths expand. The other thing i am frightened by, lisa takes a day off, and rumor has it she left day bear, and i think shes returned a bull. [laughter] jonathan lets see how long this one last. I reckon we can get to about 7 05. [laughter] lisa ive revived. Sleep is a good thing. I heard all these lovely messages that i cashed out of my triple leveraged airline stocks, but on apartment in 15 central park west, and was Binge Watching alan partridge, so thank you both for all of the illuminating information about what i was doing yesterday. I will say, very keen to see whether some of the data are talking about is bleeding into the data. I know you will say this is me already becoming bearish, but at 8 30 am, we will get initial jobless claims. Basically, you might see a little bit of improvement over last week, but Bloomberg Economics expects still 730,000 additional u. S. Jobless claims as we see the increase in virus counts. Also, we are expecting a muted inflation print. U. S. Crude Oil Inventories comes as the iea ratchets back expectations for demand for oil. We are looking to see if you see a commensurate build in inventories or a decline that is less than people expect. At 1 00 p. M. , tom, this is your favorite. The u. S. Is going to sell a record 20 billion of 30 year bonds as yields just come off of the highest levels since march. The key issue yes, tom, what . Tom no, continue. [laughter] lisa i am just curious to see how much demand versus buyers who are going to lock in these yields because they see Slower Growth and they dont think a vaccine is going to preside going to provide a panacea for growth going forward. Tom over here, weve got almost normal auction markets. Does look are have normal full facing does lagarde have normal, full facing markets . Jonathan define normal. You could probably sell it to the ecb. I dont think theres anything normal about bond markets worldwide at the moment. I want to touch on the price action. Tom keene, when he cuts into people and says i dont mean to interrupt, what else do you mean if they are midsentence and you Say Something . Tom i dont know. I am stressed out. I am starting to think about thanks giving. Jonathan in the fx market, eurodollar 1. 1810. Theres a really interesting inverse correlation between cyclical appetite and performance in the euro, not what you might expect. Eurodollar is positive, s p futures negative. As lisa mentioned, and the long end of the curve, yields come in three basis points. We got to a new upper end of the range on the 10 year treasury, and then pulled back a little. It to 0. 94 interesting whether we can really get through 1 and asked the question how much oxygen is north of that level. Tom what i would really go with is yesterday, granted, the bond market closed, and today you are getting a reversion back to where the tech nasdaq leads the way up and down. You are getting back to more normal equity dynamics of the election vaccine oddity of a few days ago. Jonathan lets bring in david kelley, jp morgan Asset Management chief global strategist. Opus understand two things. ,earterm outlook darkening mediumterm outlook getting brighter. How do you navigate those two things at the moment . David one is the good things about being a bear is you can hibernate. I think a lot of people would like to hibernate for the next few months. It is going to be difficult for the economy, very difficult for peoples lives. We think that growth in the u. S. Is going to slow down to about 3 , if that, over the next quarter or two. Beyond that, the vaccine news is good news, and we are past the election uncertainty in reality of whatever maybe going on in washington right now. Vaccine is a big difference because it means we will be able to squash this thing. It does mean that growth will pick up a lot in the second half of next year as people get back to normal and do all the things they havent been able to do for a year and a half. But we do have to go through a pretty rough time for the economy and society between now and then. Help us with the application of when strategists shift and go bullish. Jp morgan again shifting to a more bullish tact as well. How does your world change when a team at j. P. Morgan gets more bullish, like Lisa Abramowitz . [laughter] david obviously we try to do the research ourselves. We are trying not to be influenced by other teams. But there is a logic to this thing. Stocks, ponds, even longterm bonds are very longterm investments, youve got to look out and fade whatever emotion is in the market at the time. Rising case count is dreadful from many perspectives, but youve got to look beyond that. I think the other thing that is very important for World Markets in general is with a new administration, i think youre going to have more certainty on trade. I think thats one of the reasons the dollar is going down but a falling dollar is advantageous for many reasons. I think it will help emerging markets. It should help s p 500 earnings. And a divided government means you dont necessarily get an increase in corporate taxes. There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic once we get past this pandemic. Lisa you said fade the emotion in markets, a fascinating turn of phrase at a time when the emotion we have seen, at least so far this week, has been borderline euphoric. Are you fighting the hope that they are having next year, or do you still think we have some pessimism baked into markets where they are . David i dont mean that. I mean the emotion bubbling up in society, and will bubble up over the next week. The case counts are rising very rapidly, so if it keeps on the same trajectory, within a week, people are going to be talking about nothing but the misery that covid is inflicting on us, shutdowns and lockdowns, and business in trouble. I am not necessarily talking about the emotion of the last week and the weirdness after the election. I am talking about what is just ahead of us here. I think people should recognize that there is light at the end of the tunnel, even though the tunnel itself right now is getting darker. Jonathan it keeps coming back to the same question we have asked repeatedly. How much bad news is this market willing to ignore . How much . Weve got problem is this market which is being supported by very easy central banks. There is nowhere else to go. Thats what is supporting the market. I think the market can probably look through a fair amount of that. Until there is something that is going to pull money away from goividuals and that needs to to work. Where is it going to work . Longer term, as uncertainty momentum got a lot of in making cap growth stocks. Thats got to be the continuing trade of 2020. I think as uncertainty diminishes and you get back to a more normal economy, particularly if you get a correction at some stage, people are going to focus more on valuation. Valuations look a lot better in u. S. Value stocks, em, and developing International Stocks than they do in the s p 500 overall, particularly in mega cap growth stocks. Jonathan david, great to catch up with you. Avett kelly of j. P. Morgan Asset Management, thank you. David kelly of j. P. Morgan Asset Management, thank you. Senator cotton from arkansas, we have time to reach an orderly resolution on the election. That is the approach at the moment. A lot of people seemingly share that relaxed attitude to what is taking place. Tom washington waking up in about an hour and a half, and you really wonder what the news will be today. I am focused on the cia director and her future. That is all speculation right now. She did meet with senator mcconnell yesterday. Theres any number of themes here as well. Issuesly it is a stew of we are looking at was in politics, this renewed pandemic, and just trying to keep track of the market. Look at the china news we have seen in the last two hours. Jonathan you know the really interesting thing . I would giggle, the fed decision, when we heard from sharon a week ago, the fed decision, when we heard from chair powell. Since then, we had vaccine news, increasing covid cases, a president elect, a contested. Lection that is where the emphasis still is. We thought it would shift from Monetary Policy to fiscal. This is still a Monetary Policy story. Tom i thought david kelly was great, how he said his vision is not influenced so much by other divisions. It is a lot like you and me, how you and i are not influence by lisas new bullishness. [laughter] jonathan not at all. Lisa oil barrels, i recommend them. Its nice to get some sleep. The bear hibernated. Jonathan we will try and wander up through the next couple of hours. Great to have lisa back in the seat. Much more still to come. Heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, the beautiful city here. I understand a great new york over the last couple of weeks, too. This is bloomberg. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. The state of georgia will conduct a hand recount of ballots for the president ial race. Joe biden leads President Trump by a slim margin of about 14,000 votes after roughly 5 million cast. The Trump Campaign has alleged there were widespread voting irregularities, but has offered no proof. President elect joe biden has klain longtime aid ronald to be his chief of staff. He played a role during the crises of the Obama Administration. The job is one of the most powerful in washington, the gatekeeper for the president. Moderna is now poised to take the spotlight on a coronavirus taxing. Its study has accumulated more than 50 three infections. That will allow preliminary analysis of its effectiveness to begin. Moderna didnt predict how long it could take an independent Monitoring Committee to analyze the data. Wells fargo is considering whether to sell another of its businesses. Bloomberg has learned the bank is exploring the sale of its Unit Offering store branded credit cards. It is also engaging interest in other businesses, such as its asset manager and student loan portfolio. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. We are well on our way to over 200,000 cases a day. Our Health Care Systems are already overwhelmed in may locations in the country. That is only going to continue to increase as these new numbers add up. They are already in the pipeline if we dont have some immediate action for people to distance themselves from sharing the air with other people, which i dont see happening. Jonathan Biden Covid Task force member weighing in on the situation in the United States of america right now, and that situation is worsening. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Heres the price action this thursday morning. Good morning to you all. A little later today, we hear from chairman powell, president le guard, and governor bailey ash president president lagarde, and governor bailey all on the same panel. Down three or four basis points on the 10 year, just south of 94 basis points. We rollover on equity futures just a bit, down 0. 4 on the s p. On the nasdaq, still positive, but by just 0. 1 at the moment. Tom looking for direction. Maybe we will see that at 8 30 with the cpi report. We just heard from dr. Os terholm. Emily wilkins has our wonderful coverage of team biden in delaware. Right now, maybe focus on the pandemic. Emily wilkins, right now, six months ago there would be a 4 00 p. M. Rose garden press conference. They would be trotted out. The president would say fauci, etc. Now that is not the case. What is washington doing today about the pandemic . Emily number one, we can look at what congress is doing. They have restarted talks about a potential stimulus. This is something both pelosi and Mitch Mcconnell have been asked about. However, it does seem like we are running into some of the same roadblocks we were before the election. Republicans and mcconnell once a more streamlined bill. That is something democrats and nancy pelosi have said they wont accept. You give the Biden Campaign talking much more about their plan for the pandemic. They are putting together a task force on that particular issue, starting to make recommendations and be ready to hit the ground running. Tom wisconsin is having huge trouble with beds. Idaho sends their sickest to utah, i assume to salt lake. They cant do that anymore. What is the present administration doing this morning about the increase in hospitalizations . Emily that is a great question. We are keeping an eye only Trump Administration today to see what, if anything, we are hearing from them. It is something we were expecting, another spike in the winter with flu season. Now we are seeing that play out in the numbers. Tom this is the issue jonathan this is the issue. It is november 12. We cant wait until january 20 for policy. It is not just about the white house, either. It is about Congress Getting something done. For these states to introduce something more restrictive and get society to come along, you need something from the fiscal side. If you do think you need to be more restrictive, lets be clear about that. Tom emily, you are in the halls of congress. What in the halls of congress are they doing today about the here and now . Again, it is back to those stimulus negotiations, back to those discussions. As you point out, because we are seeing this dire need for beds, for hospitals, that might wind up putting more pressure on lawmakers because that is what we saw back in march with the first wave coming. Everyone said we need to get things done. People could put their partisanship aside and get something done, so that might actually put pressure on lawmakers. Point, in the house, a lot of them are still working through the election. Some of them are not even formally reelected yet. Lisa when you talk about bipartisanship at a time when youve got democrats accusing republicans of staging some sort coup, andhannel republicans saying the democrats havent really won the presidency, you wonder how much oxygen that sucks out of the room to get anything done. Can anything get done given the level of venom right now in washington, d. C. . Emily Senate Majority leader Mitch Mcconnell said he does want to get some stimulus passed before the end of the year. Mcconnell knows he is coming back next year. Nancy pelosi knows she is coming back next year. Lawmakers in washington will at least be there until january, and may be now with the election behind them, there is a drive to get something done for the american people. I think the question is what does that actually look like in terms of funding. Jonathan emily, great to catch up, as always. Enjoy hearing from you. This is what we heard from Governor Cuomo yesterday. He tweeted out the following. Is taking steps to respond to the rising covid numbers. Anywhere with a state Liquor License asked close at 10 00 p. M. Gyms must also close at 10 a clock p. M. The statewide rules will take effect on friday. There are restrictions on how we people you can have in your home as well. This is where things get really complicated for people and you get society pushing back. If you are telling people they cant stay out after 10 00 p. M. , you are pushing them indoors. If they dont speak to that rule of 10, and i have no idea it no idea how it gets enforced, then you have another issue on your hands. Tom i want to get back to another issue which is childcare. Isor de blasio in new york right on top of this literally as we speak. You wonder what new York City Schools are going to do thursday and into friday. Jonathan do you get the sense that mayor de blasio and Governor Cuomo are working handinhand in a decent way . Lisa you know the answer to that. They have a historic rivalry, and there is a question of how much they are trying to upstage one another, and how much is cooperation. I think they do agree something needs to be done. To your point, what kind of cohesive message is it when you start to talk about 10 a clock p. M. Closures . It is hard to see how that is necessarily going to stave off some of the numbers that stricter measures. Jonathan i can just see a similar response to it compared to what we went through here in london several weeks ago, several months ago. I dont want to be to new york centric this morning. El paso, the numbers out of there are just scary. Tom this is what is really important here, the overlay of income distribution, of poverty, and also of the morbidities that are out there right now. It speaks to obesity. It speaks to age. It speaks to a lot of other social issues. As we mentioned with emily wilkins, i just dont understand the rigidities in washington over the immediate, which to me seems worse than april. Maybe i am off on that. Jonathan in some places it is. We can crunch the numbers later in the program. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Much more still to come. A little later today, you will be hearing from chairman powell, president lagarde, and governor bailey. Up next on this program, you will hear from chris ver Strategas Research partners. 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