Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20240711

Good morning on Bloomberg Radio, good morning on bloomberg television. Too much to talk about. You hear it within those voices, that maybe it is the morning after, and the vaccine is really not out there. Now we get into a churn of the immediate news. Jonathan it is a tugofwar between the forward outlook looking better and the nearterm outlook looking worse. A real divergence between the two. How policymakers navigate the former will allow markets to keep the help about the latter. That is the hope for the market. First half of the week about cyclical appetite. 500 downhalf, the s p 0. 6 and nasdaq futures just about positive on the day. Tom we are going to roll the data check here through because it is a mess this morning. I just saw a 93 print on dollar. That speaks to the resiliency of dollar. Weve had a weaker dollar, but we just seem to come back when the uncertainty reigns. Lisa that seems to be the theme with all of the uncertainty on the dollar. When there is a risk off feel, people go to the dollar. Today i am watching treasury yields, and part because of record options this week. I think what Chris Verrone said about how they want to bleed higher to that 1. 30 , 1. 40 place, there is a question of what does that do. How does that rearrange equity valuations . How much does that rearrange peoples longterm growth expectations . Tom i know you are in preproduction for the real yield tomorrow, but massive negative real yield, disinflation expectations and inflation data in this hour, and then you come down to the real yield. We had a lesser negative real yield. Now what . Jonathan the real yield is at the epicenter of a lot of these moves. It has been the underpinning of why we had this positive correlation with gold and equities because tech growth has been tethered to that story as well, and in many ways, the u. S. Dollar. The dx why bottomed at the back end of august, august 31. He tech big tech topped stocksre broadly, growth , i think it is interesting to see how that develops in the coming months. Tom it will be interesting to see. And of course, look for that afterow out of jon, midmorning matters with john ferro. And i write that in the last number of days, full facing credit is really separated from highyield and investmentgrade . Is that a correct statement . Lisa basically, it has gotten more extensive for the u. S. Government until today to borrow money, and less expensive for riskier companies to borrow money commode is typically what you would see in a risk on environment. Basically, that spread, that extra yield investors demand is evaporating because they see the perceived risk as dissipating. Lets gogo to ft, and hes betting against it. Do you see a bet that spreads will widen in credit . Jonathan i see a lot of people who are uncomfortable with the idea of where spreads are right now, but not operable enough to push the other way. Why . The central bank is in the game fixing the price. We have a pricesensitive buyer in credit. Youve got to believe that somehow this market can give way to a central bank that is sitting there on the bed whenever anything goes on the bid whenever anything goes wrong. Beata joins us kirrr right now, beata joins us of alliancebernstein. How do you see this through 2021 . Beata we see the same things the market has been focusing on for the past year. The offsetting force is the fiscal support and monetary support that is providing tremendous mental and liquidity to the market. I think what you have seen over the course of the last few weeks is really a recognition that so many people were waiting for event risk around the election and have reengaged with the market as there is more clarity around that. So i think we have to wrestle with those two forces. Jonathan jonathan i think a lot of people are also thinking about whether we would have regime change away from the Monetary Policy regime to the fiscal policy regime. I do wonder, for you, where you are sitting right now. What regime are we in . That we are in a regime has been coordinated. What we saw in the First Quarter was an incredible response both in times ofs both in terms of speed and magnitude. Then over the summer, it has been frustrating to not see that second round of fiscal stimulus be passed. We really think the economy and limit leading markets will be looking for direction around fiscal stimulus. A much smaller stimulus package them what wouldve occurred under the consensus views going into the election of a blue wave , but nonetheless, we do think you will see in the numbers today that there is still a tremendous number of people looking for work, out of work that need help, and especially as covid19 ramps up pretty relentlessly. We think that fiscal stimulus is going to be critical. Jonathan the numbers are ugly in the United States. Morerospect of d. C. Doing has diminished over the past couple of months, as you have described. What are the consequent as of that for you as you look into yearend . Beata i am coming to you from chicago, where we are the one state in the union right now that doesnt even allow indoor dining, to give you a sense of the escalation and the potential for ongoing shutdowns and lockdowns. We do see the vulnerability of the economy to ongoing stress from lockdowns. That being said, we are longterm bullish, and in fact, we went into september and the election slightly overweight equities. That has been the call. We have turned that back a little bit, but ultimately maintaining that position because we see vaccine optimism and earnings recovery that are substantial in 2021. Lisa lets build on that. Is there an idea that the virus count and all of the highfrequency data people were pouring over this year, none of that matters right now if youve got a longer term view . Beata we dont think none of that matters. If you think about what happened in the spring, the market was really focused on a National Health care access. The inability of the system to manage the virus. What we have learned today, and youve had prior guests this morning actually addressing this, is better treatment, ultimately lower fatality rates, and more targeted Economic Impact for more localized shutdowns. That is what the market is effectively expecting. But we do come back to the fact that fiscal stimulus is necessary in some form. The sooner the better, but the odds of that happening this year are being reduced as we speak. Tom you always fold a lot of math into this. I love the mathiness of the phrase the idiosyncratic drivers. Discuss that. What is the new idiosyncratic driver . Beata in our opinion at bernstein, what it means is that being an index investor is not enough. There are a lot of Underlying Company fundamentals that you have to look at very specifically. We know we are in a year where growth has led in and assured mary way, but with in the style in an extraordinary way, but within the style of growth. You have to look at the company, its balance sheet, its management team. Ultimately we are focused on buying enduring businesses, and in the end, we think that focus on Stock Selection will prevail. Jonathan lets talk about that. Just give us some idea of how you do that. Oflier this news, the likes amc bids up aggressively. I want to understand between plays thehat catchup trade on a bit of hopefulness, and the more durable recovery you anticipate. Beata i would leave that to our Portfolio Managers who are ultimately refundable for kicking the tires of the management team, but what we have been doing over the last couple of weeks is picking up a little bit more in the cyclical space. To give you an example, even within technology, focus on semiconductors. An area we think will continue to benefit from the stayathome economy, but ultimately support that reversal of going back to normal. King up a little bit more in the transportation sector as well, and some of the most beatendown names in Consumer Discretionary in travel and leisure. That is how we are singing about positioning today. Jonathan thank you. Always great to catch up. Thank you very much, of alliancebernstein. Tom mentioned to me that actually, play at the masters has been suspended due to intimate whether that took place at 7 35 eastern. Tom theyve got to be sensitive down in augusta. It is not like the british open, where they just play, play. I love the british open because the rough is like this stick, the putting green is like an inch. That is like real golf. Jonathan augusta is beautiful. Tom it is. Jonathan title scheduled tiger scheduled at 8 05, sam need after 12 noon. Jonathan it is really important that the weather fades quickly. Some say this tournament could move from spring when this tournament moves from spring to november, they need to get this done quickly before it gets dark. You have a series of players teeing off from the first hole in the tent simultaneously. Try to get these rounds completed. Tom can you see me playing golf . Lisa no. [laughter] jonathan no. Maybe in the car with a beer or some thing like that. Something stronger probably. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. This is bloomberg. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. The state of georgia will conduct a hand recount of ballots for the president ial race. Joe biden leads President Trump by a slim margin of about 14,000 votes, roughly 5 million that were cast. The Trump Campaign has alleged there were ride spread there were widespread voting irregularities come but has offered no proof. Study hasys its accumulated more than 53 infections. That will allow a preliminary analysis of its effectiveness to begin. Internet did not predict how long moderna did not predict how long it would take an independent committee to analyze the data. Oak hill and visors oak Hill Advisors founder spokes with bloombergs eric schatzker. A biden presidency supported by a fed that continues to be accommodating, i believe that as a goldilocks scenario for the markets. You can see more of that ritika you can see more of that interview starting at 10 00 a. M. New york time here on bloomberg tv. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Frankly, they Trump Administration has basically given up. We are just sitting there waiting for the vaccine, and the virus is not waiting. The virus is all around us. Stinthan lawrence go professor. Getown heres the price action this morning. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Tve on Bloomberg Radio and come of the story as follows for you. 19, 0. 5 . Res down 93 basis points on the 10 year. I find the euro move fascinating over the past week. I keep bringing it up. Positive as Risk Appetite declines. Euro negative and the dollar comes back. Youve got to get your head around that. It is important. Tom on the blended index, theres two of them. There is the bloomberg dollar index, which is really good math , and in the traditional dxy index. The dollar doesnt give way here, does it . Jonathan people thought it would when Risk Appetite and cyclical impulse came back into this market. We also it we all saw it. What happened to the dollar . Not what people expected to do. Tom lets rip up the script here. Ed mills is with us of raymond james, with years of congressional effort in washington. With headlinest that have to do with the strains , monoclonal antibodies, and my eyes are glazing over. Is washington as missing in action as it looks on this pandemic . How alone is dr. Fauci and the rest of the Science Community . Ed i think under the Trump Administration, they are leading with the strategy of trying to get the vaccine, not necessarily leading with the National Strategy at this time for containment. That is where i think the market is looking toward the pfizer news of this week, other positive headlines related to any vaccine or therapeutic development. There is a hope that there could be some fiscal stimulus out of d. C. That is probably the one area where we connect. Getting it done before the end of the year has a lot of hurdles, but the market has largely been looking at that as not a question of if, just a question of when and how much. As long as it stays on when and how much, that is a decent use for the market coming out of d. C. Lisa from your vantage point, how much cohesion is there right now in washington, d. C. . As jon mentioned, we basically have a contested election. The Transition Team for president elect joe biden has not been allowed in to get National Security briefings. How important is this when it comes to crafting policy in the u. S. And passing some sort of Fiscal Relief . Ed what we have said is that if we were in a contested election, the ability to get Fiscal Relief done was basically off the table because if you are arguing over an election, getting bipartisan agreement on a 1 trillion or 2 trillion package is very difficult. D. C. Think the sentiment in is that a lot of what is going on has to do with the runoffs in georgia, ensuring that the Republican Base of Trump Supporters rains elevated in their support for those two candidates. I will tell you from a market perspective, and dusters i talked to think this election is largely over. They have even somewhat called the georgia races. People are positioning for split government, with biden as the president elect and republicans in the majority in the senate. It might take a few weeks or a couple of months before that becomes official. I think if there is any doubt, it is the seats in georgia i would be watching. Jonathan i just want to touch on the price action and returned to georgia quickly. On the s p, we are 0. 6 . In europe, down 1 on the stock 600. Bottom of the pile, the banks. They were top of the pile over the last two days. Thanks down by 2. 9 , just something to keep an eye on as we go into the opening bell in new york. You mentioned georgia and the relevance of a contested election for how the Senate Runoff races may be. Can you help me understand the fiscal conversation, whether that has anything to do with the politics as well . Ed there are more questions right now than answers in the fiscal debate. Does mcconnell want this to be settled before the runoff elections, or does he want to potentially strengthen his hand if it is clear that he will have the majority for the next two years . Do democrats want to settle . Is there going to be a big fight around the december 11 government funding deadline . What do we do about the to summer 31st expiration of millions of americans who are getting testy december 31 expiration of millions of americans who are getting federal unemployment the december 31 expiration of millions of americans who are getting Unemployment Insurance . You need the political will. But what does biden do . What does trump do . Is he willing to support Fiscal Relief . I think everything is up in the air, and that is why the market is not focused on the f. It is focused on the when. There is a belief that we get it done. It is my belief as well, but i think we have more uncertain than i would like now. Jonathan i can tell you what people in markets think of washington. Can you tell me what the people you think in it you speak to them washington think of markets right now . Ed i think there is a humorous view of each other. I think both at times think the other is disconnected from reality. A lot of people are wondering how we couldve seen this move after an election. Almost in the outcome, people with assets come up with a reason why that is good for their assets. Tainly as i look i had look ahead, if it is a divided government, if we get Fiscal Relief and we do not have to deal with the uncertainty of a oneparty government, that is positive, but it is always interesting to me that without a doubt, we always find a way if you have money that this is an ok outcome for you. Jonathan always finding a way to be bullish. Then queue. Isnt that the story . Always finding a way to tell a comforting story about why everything is going to be ok and to stay long. Tom i think it is called gridlock. I wonder, with the news flow we are seeing, and the market flow as well, as we spoke to rob kaplan the other day of dallas, do we have time for gridlock right now . I dont have an answer. But is gridlock good going into march . Jonathan gridlock apparently is good going into march and beyond. Why . Because of the central bankers you just mentioned. Weve got a market that is so heavily insulated to risk. How much divergence have we seen on high yield spreads in the last couple of days . Clearly the backend is going to be tough. Jonathan this is the reason lisa this is the reason why people are not excited about getting defaults on risk. Are people going to be forced there george going to be forced to shut their doors in the coming weeks and months . Jonathan the Economic Data is five minutes away. That means Michael Mckee drops then Louis Alexander nomura, chief u. S. Economist. This is bloomberg surveillance. You can go your own way its time you make the rules. So join the 2 Million People who have switched to xfinity mobile. You can choose from the latest phones or bring your own device and choose the amount of data thats right for you to save even more. And youll get 5g at no extra cost. All on the most reliable network. So choose a data option thats right for you. Get 5g included and save up to 400 dollars a year on the network rated 1 in customer satisfaction. Its your wireless. Your rules. Only with xfinity mobile. You may already know that goodrx can help you save up to 80 on your prescriptions. Unfortunately, Many Americans cant get to a doctor right now. The good news is that for many health issues, you can see a doctor online. Its easy. Just go to goodrx. Com, and with a few clicks, youll be treated by a licensed medical professional, all from the comfort of your own home. Visits are confidential and affordable. Need a prescription . Your doctor can send it to your pharmacy or have it mailed to you. Get the healthcare you deserve at goodrx. Com. Jonathan a message about 60 seconds ago and it said lisa, the bear is back. I am surprised it took 90 minutes. The smile disappeared as soon as we got the high yield spreads. Investors not being compensated for the risks they are assuming. Lisa calling it like it is. Jonathan here is Michael Mckee. Michael good morning. A couple of Different Things we are caring about. Initial jobless claims is probably what most of the market is focused on. 709,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis, that is down from 751,000 the previous week. To 757,000. That up down 48,000, which is good news. A lot of people concerned that as their caseload rises from covid the country will see more businesses shutting down. As someone pointed out, a lot of them already have so maybe you will not get nearly the number changes you had anticipated. Stilloverall basis, we have 21,157,000 people still getting some sort of benefits, at least as of october 24. We have more people moving off of the regular unemployment into the pandemic the pandemic emergency unemployment. That is up to 4 billion. We are seeing the longterm scarring jay powell has worried about and we will continue to watch that. He is speaking at 11 45. He is talking to the ecb group. Pci is out, comes in flat. That was a surprise. We thought it would be up at least. 1 . Core is flat as well. We see the yearoveryear numbers for core and for headline go down. 1. 2 percent increase for the headline number, and on a core basis 1. 6 for the year. Taking a quick look at where we saw changes. The biggest job is in medicare commodities, down. 8 which is a surprise. 1. 2 so see apparel down and i did want to mention for our producer that diamond prices rose last week for the first time in several weeks. Tom wow. Jonathan something we did not know. We had no idea. Lisa wow. Tom bearing the headline. Before i get data to Michael Mckee. Yields come back with a vengeance. 9258. Pick up on what you see in the data. Jonathan i am laughing. Parentssure if rileys follow this program but they might be concerned about what they did not know. I want to turn to the 10 year yield. We had a bid on the 10 year, we had a bid on the 30 year, we had a flatter curve. The downside miss on inflation. Basis coming in five points on the 10 year. The treasury yield, we are at the upper end, we come out the other side of veterans day, yields lower again. Tom no question. What is so important is weaker aggregate demand. We will go to lewis alexander, but we will assume weaker aggregate demand. Robert kaplan says for two quarters. Does that mean disinflation that lags into 2021 . Michael it means a cap on inflation. It is hard to say whether it will continue to get disinflation. Im looking at the more detailed cpi breakdown. There are a couple of things that stand out. Medicare, which is odd given the situation. When you look at gasoline prices down, we have seen a lot of volatility in energy costs. That is not likely to continue or to go much lower. We have gone up since then. We may see pressure on headline inflation. The other thing people have been watching closely is owners equivalent rent is up. 2, an increase from prior months. People have been wondering about house prices starting to go down if everyone is going to the suburbs in cities and house prices going up in the suburbs. Not really seeing a lot of change in the trend. Tom thank you so much on inflation and the claims data. Much more on that through the day. Lewis alexander joins us with numerous, chief u. S. With uera, their chief u. S. Economist. Are you looking at the next quarters or farther out . Lewis the next quarters are important. You have covid drag. On the cusp of seeing changes in behavior and more lockdowns. That is important. You also have physical drag. Fiscal drag. The support provided earlier was tremendous and how large it was, but the downside is it rolls off relatively quickly. Obviously the politics will drive how quickly we get that replaced. Beyond the next couple of quarters, you obviously have good news with respect to an effective vaccine and the potential for us over a longer horizon to get back to normal sooner than we might have otherwise. We have a big comp to get over. To getave a big hump over. Jonathan im strzok lisa im struggling with the idea that earlier in the year people were paying attention to jobless claims to get a sense of how much permanent damage there would be. Now people are saying it will not matter because we will get a vaccine. Does it still matter when it comes to gauging the scarring, gauging how much Slower Growth will be after the pandemic is gone . Lewis the weekly unEmployment Data we get is some of the best High Frequency data we have. We have a long track record on it. It is very important in that context. I think the fundamental question of how much longterm damage there is going to be is a harder thing to gauge. Weekly Employment Data helps us, but the monthly data are important as well. That is going to be an important issue. The question of what we get back to in the new normal is going to be critical. We are still figuring that out. Frankly businesses are still making decisions. I cannot stress enough that 700,000 initial claims a week is an extraordinarily high number. The fact that continuing claims are stable in an environment where you have that level of initial claims means there is a lot of hiring going on. We still are in a disruptive phase. I think those numbers continue to be important. I do not think anybody would argue that is not important. Do we have any historical example of this amount of churn for this length of time . Lewis no. Short answer. We have decent quarterly data on labor markets going back to the 1890s. There is nothing like what we gone through this year in terms of the increase in unemployment we saw in the spring, the rapid declines we have seen subsequently. There is nothing comparable to this. The flu pandemic a century ago. We are in uncharted territory. It is clear that from a theersion perspective, thing that is remarkable is how in parts of the economy they have been severely disrupted, so you are still 50 down on things like travel. How that is going to come back remains very much in question. There is nothing we have in historical statistics that is comparable. Jonathan sobering. Great to catch up with you to work through the numbers. Lewis alexander from mara ura. Nume a headline from ohio, the Ohio Governor saying joe biden president elect. One of the first republicans to say this. Surprisingight be that if we had a president elect joe biden it would be notable someone would rev nice him is that, but the Ohio Governor saying joe biden is the president elect. Saysthe Washington Post the president has no events scheduled today. I will be on us. That is concerning. He was there for the tomb of the unknown soldiers, but another day without communication seems challenging, to say the least. Jonathan lets pick up on that word concerning. When you say concerning, what about it is concerning . Spence ofe an immense how the United Kingdom i have an immense respect for how the United Kingdom does it. You use the yield you lose the election you are next day. Here there is a tradition. The president has clearly decided to break that tradition. For a lot of people used to the tradition, the cadence, the methods, the visits that are made, it all has to get cleared up, and the governor of ohio making a statement as one of those small steps towards where we get back to a cadence we all grew up with. Jonathan United States has to work through a huge transition of government and needs the time to do that. We will work through the process. What this exposes come at a critical time for this country come is how questionable that threemonth period is. In the midst of a pandemic with no agreed federal response for the new wave of infections, and a very staggered approach from state so far. Massachusetts, utah, new jersey, new york. Problems in el paso at the county level as well. Thanksgiving is just around the corner. Huge amount of travel coming up in america, and you wonder how quickly they might have to move. Tom that is all accurate. I would say that to me the granularity is important. If you are in idaho and you are sick and you are supposed to go to salt lake city, that is maybe not happening because of the hospitalization challenges. I know you will mention our wonderful guest coming up. I want to say to everyone, this is the interview i have tried to have for the past three days because it was scheduled because of his schedule, general mark kimmitt cannot be with us until now, but he knows these people in the pentagon we are all learning about. Jonathan that conversation comes up next on the program. Brigadier general mark kimmitt, former assistant secretary of state. York,ondon and new alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. On Bloomberg Radio and tv with an equity market down 11 points. We recover a little bit. 50 minutes out from the opening bell this thursday morning after an epic start of the week, and then it faded. Is it another head fake . The rotation into the cyclical parts of the market, or is this the real deal . This is bloomberg. Ritika President Trump suffered does go setbacks as he tried to claim victory in the state of arizona. The state Republican Attorney general told foxbusiness it was highly unlikely the president would catch up when remaining ballots are counted. He also said he has found no evidence of widespread fraud the has alleged. Hasidentelect joe biden stopped his transition with policy experts, academics, and former Obama Administration officials. That is in contrast with the industry friendly figures President Trump appointed. People who includes favor stronger government regulation than the current administration. Liberals are concerned about the number of tech executives joe biden has included. Justmerican pandemics are increase in Coronavirus Infections appears poised to get even worse. The nationwide rise in cases is now in its ninth week. More than 145 thousand new cases reported yesterday, an alltime high. The seven day average for debts climbed above 1000 for the First Time Since august. Disney analysts are bracing for another tough quarter. The Worlds Largest Entertainment Company reports fourthquarter results after the closing bell. Wall street expects disney to report a 26 percent decline in revenue from a year earlier. The coronavirus pandemic continues to ravage the companys businesses but disneys streaming service could provide a bright spot. China and 14 other asiapacific nations are close to a deal on the Worlds Largest freetrade agreement. It could be completed this weekend. The partnership also includes japan, australia, new zealand. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Am ritika gupta this is bloomberg. There are plenty of threats. The pentagon is in disarray on the civilian side. The good news on veterans day is is on themed military job. Tom good morning. Bloomberg surveillance. Lisa abramowicz and tom keene. Jon ferro is off getting ready for the open with the market 11. Ive anticipated this interview a number of days. General mark kimmitt is the rarest of rare, someone of the distinguished military career who has dovetailed it with state department experience. We are thrilled general mark kimmitt could join us right now. The main blur is off the charts. We have a general here, we have a kernel there, we have Alyssa Slotkin out of michigan with her Defense Department experience, and all of this cacophony comes down to one thing. How is the pentagon doing . What is your feeling of how the pentagon is doing in this immediate turmoil . Gen. Kimmitt i think the Uniformed Services are doing just fine. You can be sure mark milley has the rudder of the boat moving and straight and in the right direction. About what is going on in my own policy shop in the pentagon and the secretary of defense. Something does not click. Tom what is the price, or the good, or the negative of an afghanistan exit . Clearly the zeitgeist is the president desires that. We hear of silence from the military. Give us the calculus if we were to exit afghanistan . Gen. Kimmitt on that issue in afghanistan, hollis. Is doing great negotiations but he is negotiating with the taliban. As we are coming to an agreement with the taliban saying you leave, we will take care of al qaeda. We know that will not happen. The United States is saying you take care of al qaeda, we leave. That is not going to happen. If there is an al qaeda threat or any other isis threat inside afghanistan, we will go back in. It may be from the air, it may be with special operations unit, but the fact remains we are not going to allow afghanistan to remain and become a safe haven for terrorist. This kabuki about pulling all of the american troops out, we will pull the one sitting around the bases not doing much, but the ones we need to have their to work with the afghanistan National Security forces and counterterrorist operations, im not worried about that. Tom under the revolution of goldwater and nichols in 1986, the last act of senator goldwater to create a separation of our military, how confident are you the military can operate over the next 69 days . Gen. Kimmitt i am not the slightest bit worried about that. Goldwater and nichols was the result of the Clown College we called granada where you had every service doing their own thing. Since 1986, it is a smooth running military set up going from the president to the secretary of defense down to the commanders. That is not where i am worried about right now. It is from the commanders through the secretary of defense and up where i have concerns. Lisa can you elaborate on your concerns with the Practical Implications of some of the turnover . Gen. Kimmitt im not concerned about the practical goal implications. I am concerned about the people. Records,a look at the i do not know the secretary of defense, but these are guys that have a great military background but it seems their greatest qualification is they appeared on fox news on a repeated basis, probably echoing back to President Trump what he wanted to hear. Lisa does this have immediate implications for longterm implications in terms of a greater litigation a greater politicization of the entire military forces . Gen. Kimmitt that is not going to happen. Mark milley and the team will resign before they become political bozos. My concern, and this is purely speculative, i have the sneaking suspicion something is going on in terms of why these people were brought in. I think it is far more than just afghanistan. These are people with a deep loyalty to a president who has 60 days left of Unfinished Business and i am hoping the secretary of defense will not give actions and orders to the military in the next 60 days that are going to haunt us for a while. Tom you have great experience with colonel mcgregor. You mentioned fox tv, he has been a contributor. If colonelcribe mcgregor enters the pentagon of a citizen, how he will relate to the joint chiefs of staff . Gen. Kimmitt what i am concerned about with doug is not relating to the staff as a civilian. There is a Great Respect for x military among the joint staff. It is what is being planned, why he was brought in. But mcgregor is brilliant, he has very strong views. I work sidebyside with him over the years. I work for him at one job. He is creative. He thinks outside the box. I wonder if what he is thinking outside the box for the next 60 days. Tom general kimmitt, thank you so much for joining us. We are thrilled we could find the time to speak to mark kimmitt. , cnn with a Helicopter Crash in egypt involving u. S. Personnel. We will follow that. That is breaking news. So interesting to see the cacophony of news and the resiliency of the market. It is almost like the market is the only thing that is transparent right now. Lisa right now the transparency is people are shrugging off some of the turmoil we are hearing about and seeing in washington, d. C. You wonder what the implications are in a time of a virus getting worse and a time of Economic Uncertainty when we are looking for a fiscal support package that there is such dissonance in washington, d. C. Is it is it is uncomfortable. Markets are looking past it all. Critically. Critically, you and i are frankly focused on the five boroughs. We have been doing better than the rest of the country in this virus and you have to wonder if that will change in the coming days. Lisa what the doctor was talking about, the exponential factor of the virus. You and lee find out you are on that trajectory too late if you do not do sufficient testing. If you get another shut down, how damaging will that be. People are looking past this time. It will be a rough few months. Tom it certainly appears to be a rough few months. Part of that is i have to cook for thanksgiving. Lisa ive been hearing about. To brine, or not to brine. Tom it will be rough. It is shakespearean. That is the fight at home. Let me do a data check to salvage this. 12, dow futures 217. The nasdaq, we have the juxtaposition for a few days and now we have the nasdaq 100 reverting to its growthiness away from value. The 10 year yield. 9275. Comes in on disinflation tendencies. Stay with us through the day on Bloomberg Radio and bloomberg television. 12 00or tarullo at the hour. This is bloomberg. Jonathan from new york and london for our audience worldwide, good morning. The countdown to the open starts right now. 30 minutes away from the opening bell with equity futures down a quarter of 1 on the s p 500. We begin with the big issue. Increasing covid infections rattling the United States pushing officials to introduce new measures to slow the spread. New york limiting indoor gatherings to 10 people. Governors across the country, in utah, nebraska, ohio, all ordering masked mandates while the countries most populous state starts scaling back reopening spirit the growing concern reopenings. Leaving riskoncern and a brighter outlook in 2021. A second wave. Lots of uncertainty for markets. Investors are looking