Questions were raised over astrazeneca trial results. The ceo telling bloomberg within the last few minutes that it will now likely as a result run a new global trial, saying, now that we have found what looks like a better efficacy, we are going to have to validate this, and we need to do an additional study. It looks like it is going to be half of those full dose that could produce a higher efficacy then maybe a full dose. Europe and the United States continued to struggle with containing the virus resurgence. Germany is seeing a record increase in new cases, while new york cases are approaching 7000, hospitalizations hit their highest since june. Here was more is bloombergs, china here with more is bluebirds emma chandra here with more is bloombergs emma chandra. Emma astrazeneca are going to look to have a no other global trial to test the efficacy of the half dose, which they think will be better, and getting some more troubling figures out of large economies. The likes of new york, also of germany, about the level of cases. In new york, we are seeing nearly 7000 new cases in the last 24 hours. Hospitalizations topping 3000 in new york. In germany, germany setting a record for the number of new cases in the last 24 hours, some 32,687 new infections. As i said, that is a record increase in germany. Cases tripling since october there, and looking at the number of cases approaching one million in germany. For that reason in germany, we are not seeing any easing of its partial lockdown restrictions. They are going to stay in place until december 20, right up until christmas. There is a different story when we look at other countries in europe. We have a bloomberg chart that shows you how cases are starting to fall off. We are starting to see a reduction in the number of new cases when we look at the likes of france, italy, great britain, and spain, and therefore there is a slightly more positive story there as we start to look at some easing of restrictions in those countries. Emma emma we are seeing that guy we are seeing that easing muscle lets walk through the details. We heard from Emmanuel Macron earlier in the week. We got the details of the u. K. Tearing system as the partial the u. K. Tiering system as the partial lockdown ends next week. Walk us through what we know. Emma frances lockdown will end this saturday, president macron announcing that earlier this week. U. K. News coming out today that is endingn england on wednesday, and going back to this tiering system. What is interesting is that london has avoided the toughest restrictions. It has gone into tier two. That means pubs, restaurants, hair salons can reopen, though there will be no mixing of households. Emma i think very guy i think very few places in the u. K. Look like they will end up in tier one. Emma the silly aisles, guy. Guy how could i forget . Emma chandra has all the details. Thank you very much, indeed. Joining us now, janet henry, hsbc global chief economist. We are seeing case counts starting to rise as the u. S. Is celebrating thanksgiving today. That comes with mixing and travel, as a result of which we are likely to see a sig. Can spike in the case count a significant spike in the case count. Hospitalizations are also rising. How does this play into how you think the recovery and 2021 is going to look economically . Janet we need to balance obviously the good news on the vaccine front. Clearly theres been some mixed headlines today, but compared with where we were about six weeks ago, there is no doubt that the broad news on a vaccine , the certainty that some point in 2021 we will be some way towards containing this pandemic , again obviously some fairly big negative Downside Risk for the very near term. So yes, there is light at the end of the tunnel. It is just that this valley weve got to cross in terms of the weakness of activity, if anything, looks set to be a little bit longer. That is what we are getting from the likes of the ecb at the moment. They are positioned for nearterm Downside Risk rather than getting carried away about the optimism regarding the vaccine. Janet what does that guy what does that mean in terms of policy between now and christmas . Janet between now and christmas, Central Banks are going to do more. We have known for some time that the ecb says nothing is going to stop them from recalibrating all of their measures. Well, not all of them. We dont think they will go to more negative rates at this point, but they will be delivering some kind of package of measures in december. I think it was pretty clear from the fed not that they are going to up the degree of insurance that they talked about yesterday, but that they will continue the asset purchases, so the total amount of monthly purchases of not just the government bonds, but other securities as well, they will continue into next year, and i think that was further emphasized by philip lane today. Hes very nervous that the good news on the vaccine might actually cause the yield curve to steepen a bit too quickly, and that that might impact a bit more quickly then what is happening on the real economy and for households and companies. Central banks still ready to do more, and certainly to keep monetary accommodation and play. Guy we seem to have a little issue with your screen, but we will carry on the conversation. Fiscal on both sides of the atlantic seems to be stalled, both in the United States and here in europe. Here in europe, hungary and poland seem to be holding it up. In the United States, it is the politics between the democrats and the republicans. Will the Central Banks fill that gap . Are they capable in reality of doing so . Janet Central Banks cant fill the gap. Obviously, even before this pandemic, we knew that Central Banks broadly were running out of ammunition. They play a critically Important Role in terms of unlocking Financial Markets at the start of the pandemic. They played an exhibit they played an equally Important Role subsequently, but today they are playing a supporting role. The heavy lifting everywhere has to come from fiscal policy, but they are taking their supporting roles very seriously. The lead role has to come from the fiscal side. It is coming through in europe, and admittedly the fed is probably frustrated that anything they are likely to get in that few months or next few weeks from the u. S. Is going to fall short of what they have actually been advocating in terms of scale in the mix of fiscal stimulus. So no, the central bank support is very much a supporting role. Guy was that what we saw today in some ways from the riksbank . It understands that it cant do what fiscal can do, but nevertheless, it appreciates that there is still a great deal of uncertainty, and there is a need to get in front of it. We dont know what is going to happen. There was a fear maybe in the markets that the riksbank was signaling it something that the rest of us didnt, but is it just as simple as maybe the riksbank wanting to get in front of the story . Janet i think that is partly it. Weve heard it not just from the riksbank, but from the ecb, from philip lane, some sides that the was in financial conditions. As much as we can look across the valley and hope that at some point the vaccine comes through and we get a more meaningful recovery, we know that the scarring on the recovery will be thismined by how deep recession is and how long it lasts. The last thing they can cope with at the moment is an unwarranted tightening of financial conditions. So yes, to your point, it is about getting ahead of the story , but making sure that governments do, too. Everyone looks back with hindsight in the wake of the financial crisis, where fiscal policy was tightened to quickly, and i would argue even in the balanceduse of the budget requirements, policy was maybe even tightened on the frisco front on the fiscal front there too prematurely. So it is the same message. It is way too early to think about raining it in anytime soon. Guy janet, stick around. It would be great to talk about what we learned from the u. S. Data this week, particularly that claims number. We will be back in a moment. This is bloomberg. Janet im guy johnson guy im guy johnson. This is the european close on bloomberg markets. Lets check in on the bloomberg first word news. In the u. K. , london will avoid the toughest coronavirus restrictions when partial lockdown in england ends next week. It will be placed into tier two. That means pubs, restaurants, and bars can open for business, but alcohol can only be served as part of a meal. Households will not be able to mix indoors. A court has blocked new York Governor Andrew Cuomo from reimposing attendance limit at some worship services. In response to catholic churches in some parts of new york that are covid hotspots. Chief Justice Roberts joined the courts liberal wing in dissent. There are almost 7000 new infections. Astrazeneca is likely to conduct another global trial of its coronavirus vaccine. The current studies raised questions over its current level of addiction current level of protection. Were actuallyls given by mistake in the trial. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. The fomc yesterday releasing its minutes for the november meeting. Officials discussed updating without the need for immediate adjustment. Ofll with us is janet henry hsbc. Theviously predates labor market is starting to take a turn for the worse stateside. Are we setting ourselves up for a significant worse payroll report . And if so, do you think that could sway the fed to do more . Janet you are right, we have seen a slight creeping up in terms of the jobless claims. Also importantly, we have seen in the latest release some drop in household incomes. It was already clear that the fiscal stimulus that was initially delivered was starting to wane. We are now seeing that start to feedthrough. It may not be material enough yet for the fed to actually up the pace of purchases, the monthly rate, but certainly this is enough to continue at the current rate not just to the end of this year, which we already knew, but to extend it into next year. In terms of the payrolls release, it is a little bit early. We will have a better idea in the next few days. But certainly it is pointing to a softening in the rate of improvement in the payrolls. It has been a big surprise in the course of the last six months just how quickly the on them limit rate was falling. It was already set to slow. It would appear that maybe we will see this leveling off pretty much immediately. Guy one of the things being actively discussed at the moment is that if the fed were to act, the way that it would act would be to buy more long dated bonds to try and flatten the curve. Understand the market effective that, i. E. A flatter curve and the spinoff from that. I am wondering what you think the Economic Impact of such a move would be. Well, i think it does feedthrough into broader financial conditions, and obviously, the way it feedthrough to the average person in the u. S. Or elsewhere be a Mortgage Rates and longterm Interest Rates is obviously through the housing markets. One of the surprises in this pandemic compared with what people might have estimated last march is that housing markets in many countries of the world have been remarkably robust. Particularly, not buying apartments in city centers and the like. So it would be supported in that sense in the real economy, broadly part of the housing market, which although they have been very resilient, may not be quite as resilient in a world where we might see more permanent job losses creeping through in the course of 2021. That is one of the main implications. It will also feedthrough in terms of corporate financing area spreads have not widened, but it is about growing defaults as a lagged response to the recession that has come through. Anything that prevents those financial conditions from tightening prematurely, that will as well feedthrough to the real economy, and obviously this shift in asset purchases is some thing we have already seen from other Central Banks, for instance bank of canada. Guy just before we wrap up, can we have a quick conversation about what is happening in the u. K. . We saw a Spending Review yesterday. Within that was an effective publicsector pay freeze excluding the health care sector, but there have also been hints recently from the chancellor and others close to him that we can also be lining ourselves up for tax hikes. Toyou think it is too early consider publicsector pay freezes . Do you think it is way too early to even think about talking about the possibility of putting taxes on . Janet well, these are all political choices, and obviously there are certain things that have been written in various manifestoes, although people will question whether manifestoes should be stuck to in a pendant world. We know that ultimately, a consequence of this pandemic and the rise in debt is that it will ultimately mean higher taxation. So i think there are probably some areas that can be approached in a relatively short period of time, maybe in 2021, and that maybe we can get those first moves, whether it is Capital Gains taxes or other areas, taxing higher earners could start to come through, but potentially, it might just be a commitment to what happens in 2022. So perhaps it is a little bit early to be making the comments at the same time when actually, was announced yesterday was spending rather than anything on the taxation front. It could dampen confidence. It can affect saving behavior and economic activity, and even thestment intentions at earliest stage, so arguably is is a little bit early. We know it is important to ensure that the economy is on a Sustainable Growth path rather than looking to consolidate too early. It is just that what will be the new longterm growth path, we really dont know at this point because we dont know what the full extent of the scarring is going to be from the rise in structural unemployment and the hit to investment spending, particularly to productivity and such. So it is pretty early to be making bold calls about the timing of Fiscal Consolidation to come through. Guy janet, always a pleasure. Thanks for spending time with us today. We greatly appreciate it. We will talk to charlie dean of the ob are other later in the program to get his take on this. A little later, we will get back to astrazeneca, now looking as if it will conduct another trial of its covid19 vaccine after there are questions about the way the studies have been done with the various dosing regimes. Bloomberg conducting an interview today with pascals sorry of. Th pascal this is bloomberg. Guy live from london, im guy johnson. This is the european close on bloomberg markets. Astrazeneca now leslie to conduct an additional global trial to assess the efficacy of its covenant and vaccine after questions over the level of protection and the dosing. Joining us now to talk about all of this is suzi ring, who just conducted an interview with the ceo of astrazeneca. What did we learn . What did he say about what happens with the studies that were conducted and the dosages . How much clarity do we have around what went on . He said it shouldnt be viewed as a mistake. Ultimately they did have a lower dose than expected to give to participants, and rather than thoseng to scrap participants from the trial, they had discussions with each other and decided to keep them as part of the cohort. They didnt expect that group to have a higher efficacy rate for sure, but now that has come out, they dont see it as a mistake or a bad thing. They see it as evidence they can do further studies to show a higher efficacy rate on that dosing level. Guy what i just read suggested this is going to be a global trial. Is this a global trial, or a trial aimed at achieving fda clearance . A global trial. They set a mandate that they arm to they add an trial in the u. S. , and that they were planning to discuss with the fda how they would do that as a way to shore up this higher efficacy number. Today is thatid they will probably do a global trial, i imagine because they want to make sure that there is no question as to the ultimate efficacy rate that comes from that lower dosing regime, so we would expect now for them to set up in the near future a second arm not just in the u. S. , but globally. That would help with diversity and demographics. Guy lets talk about that. There were some questions surrounding whether or not there was a significant or suitable component of the trial that was in an older age cohort. Did he say anything about that and how they will correct that . Suzi again, that would be addressed by the new global trials. The cohort that got the half dose that wasnt originally intended, but they went through with, only went up to age 55. That obviously means we dont know anything about how that lower dosage reacts in older people. This global trial would look to address that, so what we will be accepting them to do is to have a range of ages, a range of ethnicities, exactly what we have seen from the other trials to firm up was this just a fluke, because younger people respond better to vaccines, or is it actually that a lower dose is a more effective vaccine. Guy will this affect approval in europe . Suzi he thinks that a vaccine is still on track for approval potentially by the end of the year both in europe and the u. K. , which is what he said previously, and he is standing by that. They have this lower efficacy rate which still comes above the fda benchmark of 50 . They have the 62 , so they believe they can get approval on that basis. In terms of the u. S. , they acknowledged that things will be slower, which was always a question because it did not know how much the u. S. Would need for them to get approval. This adds an additional question mark to that. However, he does not think it will lag too much. Guy great interview. Thank you indeed. The european close is next. This is bloomberg. Businesses today are looking to tomorrow. Adapting. Innovating. Setting the course. But new ways of working demand a new type of network. One thats more than just fast. You need flexibility to work from anywhere. And manage from everywhere. Advanced technology. With serious security. And reliable coverage, nationwide. Forwardthinking enterprises, deserve forwardthinking solutions. And thats what we deliver. So bounce forward, with comcast