Electoral joe bidens win is confirmed by the electoral college, but he hints he may never concede. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to bloomberg surveillance. I am Francine Lacqua here in london. It is the day after an american holiday, which saw a lot of markets closed. Cash equities open in the u. S. Because of thanksgiving. This is what i am looking at overall in the markets. Quite a lot of movement is on the portuguese 10year yield. Markets are speculating when it could go into negative territory. Today, the overall mood is a bit of caution out there. Investors, secondary valuations following a rise in equities this month but also enduring pandemic and parts of europe, oil retreating, with rising tensions within opecplus members. We will have plenty of more on that throughout the show. The stock market has a rotation into cyclical and value, by the promising vaccine, or could we see farther moves . For more on this, lets get straight to our dani burger with a look at the markets. Hi, dani. Dani hi, francine. Thing, will this rotation last . If we look at the indication since the announcement of the vaccine, you can see how overpriced they are. If you look at what happened in the past three weeks, this captured the pfizer news, 90 percent effectiveness, this is 89 billion flowing into global stocks. That is a record amount in three weeks time. It is not just global equities, it is emerging markets, both stocks and debts. Small caps saw their second biggest inflow value, rather. The exuberance here, it is important to note, is within value shares. But can that continue . Can the cyclical rotation continue . There are arguments that yes, it can, the economy will continue to recover. A lot of this is based on the vaccine. Goldman sachs says investors may have jumped the shark here. Investors have become increasingly sanguine about u. S. Lockdown risk. An erroneous belief we can control the winter wave. They say the market is pricing into much success from the vaccine. They are not really pricing in the idea that we could see instructor lockdowns in the u. S. After a thanksgiving surge in cases, but at least in the shortterm, certainly more caution coming into the picture that this cyclical rotation can continue, francine. Francine thank you so much. Our dani burger there with the latest on the markets. Europes biggest economy has passed a milestone, certainly something we are watching. Eminis total coronavirus cases germanys total coronavirus cases surpassed one million yesterday, i day after the government extended a partial shutdown until just before christmas. Vaccine front, the astrazeneca chief executive says they are heading for trials, to clear up confusion about the latest trials. Is nannetteow hechlerfaydherbe. Nannette, thank you for joining us, as always. There is always rotation in the markets. Does it have a right to go further, or does it make us question it . Dr. Hechlerfaydherbe the market has really been in balance between come on the one hand, the second wave of the coronavirus, especially on the web the western world, and then the hopes of the vaccine. The market to continue to have legs, we will have confirmation of the vaccine hopes. Very quickly we want to see approvals, we want to see Production Outlook as far as the vaccine, broader distribution is concerned. The u. S. At the moment is in a better position than europe, so i think it will boil down to that, as well as what Central Banks are going to continue to to support those sectors that are having to bridge a period of softness in between. So we have been looking at value stocks. Catalyst,very clear and at the moment, the safest catalyst for a recovery, for earnings prospects, is the link to asia, the link to the Chinese Business cycle, because china is propelling ahead, is accelerating, whether it is in the domestic economy or in the export sector. Nannette, going back to what Central Banks can support, is there a danger that if we have the vaccine as planned, and of course there are still questions about that, that Central Banks put too much stimulus and we finally see a shot of inflation going on. Dr. Hechlerfaydherbe for sure. If the economy is recovering, as we expect, the Global Economy will grow by more than 4 , and in that context, we would absolutely expect inflation to normalize. Inflatione global forecast, in our view. Will naturallyds ,ome up, but not by very much and also distinctly on a region by region basis. What Central Banks can do and this is really important right now in europe is to continue their purchase programs. We would expect that the ecb is program, indeed the pandemic emergency purchase program, by about half 1 trillion in december, and that is important, because it is keeping european yields in the periphery, that is negatively impacted at the moment at very low levels. This is what Central Banks can do. Francine so, nannette, you know, what is your haven . Is there haven par excellence . Do you protect yourself against that possibility . Dr. Hechlerfaydherbe sure, we like to have both, right . We like to have the sectors that are going to experience this pentup demand, and in the beginning, we think that the safest way is to go with sectors that are linked into the Chinese Business cycle. Alsois, by the way, including assets, for example, german equities, potentially able to decouple from the German Economy and the fact that still come on the domestic side, they are negatively affected by the second wave we are talking about. But as we and also reaching out into the construction sector, if you like, those sectors that benefit in the recovery, and they hedge as well against the impact of yields that will eventually start to rise, at least in the United States. We would anticipate the Second Quarter of next year to post some positive economic surprises that could well push the 10year u. S. Treasury yield above 1 . Of course, another hedge that is often times spoken about when expecting yield increases is the financial sector. Francine nannette, thank you so much, nannette hechlerfaydherbe from Credit Suisse. We will get back to men that shortly. Now we have a great exclusive interview, because we focus on the worlds most important commodity oil. Opecplus just ahead is a key meeting, future resistance from the uae and iraq, which are eager to resume oil sales. I am very pleased to be joined by the finance minister of nigeria. He is zainab ahmed. Thank you so much for joining us, minister. If you look at gdp growth, of course that growth is the price of oil and the fact that you cannot pump as much as you want to. Have you ever considered leaving opec . Ahmed good morning, bloomberg, and thank you. We have not considered leaving opec. We are within the opec community, and we conclude that is certainly engage now, we believe it is the right sector at the right time, and this is not going to last forever. It will improve over time. Francine minister, are you confident that with vaccine rollouts, nigeria will have access, you know, in the middle of next year, if not earlier . Are you expecting a general resumption of, you know, nigerian growth . Are things looking really bright . Things are looking absolutely better. A you know, we just released report, and the indication is a positive one, even though we 3. 62,negative goals of technically we are in a recession, but compared to results of 6. 1, it is a significant improvement, and it shows that the measures we are taking are the right ones, and we are very hopeful by the Fourth Quarter, we will exit the recession, if not, the First Quarter of 2021. Working, very early vols measure, and the measures will likely focus on stabilizing the economy by supporting the weak and the vulnerable. A lot of effort and concentration was also given to the health and response, and certainly you can see from the members that the covid19 pandemic in nigeria has been very well controlled. Down,e course had to lock like everyone else, and opened up gradually, and the economy is now open, just with a lot of cautionary measures, and we dont anticipate another lockdown, because in nigeria, the pandemic is controlled, and the numbers are flattening out. Francine minister, talk to me about the growing gap between the official and parallel rates of the nejra to the dollar. Are you about this . Are you talking how concerned are you about this . Are you talking to the ecb to close the gap . Ms. Ahmed we have been trying to close the gap, and the focus is not as much as we hoped, but the reason why we have a gap is is theird quarter, highest we have been for two quarters, so it is significant. Officially, the oil and gas sector is still the largest sort of foreign exchange, so the idea that the strategy where we are trying to address the high demand and very low supply has a sort of process where they are accruing and meeting it, and the needs are being addressed as time goes on. We do hope that we will be able keel very soon, so the impact on the Exchange Rate will become moderated. Francine minister, i have a great bloomberg chart, and you can clearly see that, you know, real Interest Rates in the economy are now negative. Is that a deliberate strategy to reduce the domestic borrowing costs, considering the rising debt to rate ratios . Ms. Ahmed well, it is something we have had to do to be able to stabilize the economy. We actually have to reduce Interest Rates, especially for Government Intervention plans and also grant forbearance, and it haschannels, actually been suspended for some time, the repayment. Manye trying to get as businesses as possible access to annancing, so that they c reinvest in their business, revive their businesses, and also ensure that we keep jobs, so it was a deliberate effort att we took, and now we look , after a while, we can begin to readjust that. Francine minister, there has also been some discussion of situation of Central Bank Advances to the government. When is this likely to happen . A number of further processes we have to go through, process all, the review and consolation process of the numbers, but we have to get approval of the executive council, and then the parliament has to approve it, because the security prioritization is going the stockse increase of the country, and we hope that, in the next couple of weeks or so, we will actually be able to request the approval. Francine so you think we are six month away . Could it take longer or less time . Ms. Ahmed no, no. Personally, i am hoping for three months. I think it should be about that time in the Parliament Come up with the numbers, that we will see approval. Wencine minister, are likely to see big privatizations of some government assets in the next year, and will that particularly affect some of the Oil Joint Ventures . Ms. Ahmed the process we are is focused onnow growth in the parliament, in the making. It is progressing well. Part of the recommendations in the bill is this issue of guiding some of the access that government owns and the oil and gas industry. So we are waiting before we move on on that. But the focus is to put in place strategies to unlock liquidity. That are lot of assets not recognized and properly booked into our Balance Sheets, and therefore this abnormal us theon is not yielding benefits, so we are doing that, and oil and gas assets, physical assets, we are going to value them, put them in the proper aspects for the Balance Sheet, and the current ratio, it gives us room to unlock the liquidity without having to put the assets, while we have a lot of assets, profits, intangible assets, we have so many of them that when we look around, you can see that we are not actually optimizing the assets of government, and part of this is the position of government assets. Francine minister, do you see the upcoming Biden Administration actually supporting and confirming nigerian candidates to head the world trade organization, and have you had any contact with them . Ms. Ahmed i think they will come up with authority, but we do hope that the biden ournistration will support candidate to head the twto. They will see that she is very well qualified and she has the capacity to move the organization forward. We are confident that she will do very well if we get that opportunity. Minister, what is the status of discussions with the world bank of the one and a half billion dollar loan, and do you have any questions about the ambitions next year . Ms. Ahmed on the second front come on the eurobond, we are leaving our options open. Market, the eurobond whether the market is at the right rate and conditions for us. If the market rates are good, we will go to the market. We are fortunate right now that veryomestic market has a large appetite for the bonds that we issued, and the cost is low, so we do not have to go away from the international. On the case of the world bank, we are at the final stage. We hope the world bank will take nigerias case at the next meeting, which is supposed to be in december. Now it has to be considered by the board of the bank. Francine will nigeria consider or reconsider taking part in the g20 debt relief initiatives . Ms. Ahmed we are already considering it. It is in the extended gfsi, that has been relief, we will consider joining, as long as it is safe for us to do so. The first time because the conditions were not favorable to us, due to the sum due to the lower commitment, but most importantly due to the commitment that we would have the international market. Some otherition, countries have been trying to look at ways and means of the european system and ways of how tocan engage the lenders offer some of the chance to somee us to take part into of the things like the g20 virtual initiative. Francine minister, thank you so much for your time today. I know you have a very busy schedule ahead, so we are grateful that you spent a bit of today with bloomberg. Zainabvenue ahmed ahmed, nigerian finance minister. Now lets get to the bloomberg first word news in london with leighann gerrans. Hi, leighann. Leighann hi, francine. President trump says he will transition to joe biden, but he man never officially concede and skip the inauguration. The president is still calling for the Election Results to be overturned despite no results of widespread fraud. U. K. Prime minister Boris Johnson is one of long months ahead in the fight against the coronavirus. That is as they are prepared to go back to a system of restrictions after a fourweek partial lockdown. Is avoiding the toughest roles, which are falling on cities like manchester and birmingham. Chinas latest target in its spat with australia is wine. Puting is expected to duties on the export this weekend, following a rash of imports, from pork to barley. They import 900 million u. S. Dollars over the last year. The ecb is signaling a ban on big dividends could be cautiously lifted next year. Bank of france governor says there are now arguments in favor of the payouts. It follows the executive Board Members saying they should be prudent, but it is prudent on a casebycase basis. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am leighann gerrans. This is bloomberg. Francine . Francine leighann, thank you so much. Lets get back to the markets. We were talking with nannette hechlerfaydherbe from Credit Suisse about some of the possible inflationary pressures, and we talked about some of the havens. Then that, thank you so much for sticking around. You put out your Investment Outlook for 2021. We also spoke to the nigerian finance minister about some of the pressure that nigeria has. How do you play into the emerging markets in 20, given the dollar dynamic, the debt dynamic, and everything we are seeing in the pandemic . Dr. Hechlerfaydherbe francine, for us, the environment here will be for supporting Global Asset Management altogether, whether it is equities, bonds, or indeed also currencies. Here are a couple of reasons why. Intoly, china is leading the recovery, and it is just out of the trade deal, for example, they have signed recently. It is a Major Driving force to lift also up with it other emergingmarket countries, not only in the asian region, actually across the globe. Secondly, the fact that the u. S. Dollar is probably still going to be weak in the absence of any Interest Rates paid under currency is helpful for many , becausemarket assets of the failing alternative, if you wish, for capital to move to the United States on the basis of those missing yields. So for investors to look for sources of possible yield pickup, emerging market bonds play a very important role. We were talking just now or hearing about nigerias tapping international markets, many emerging markets, whether corporate or governance, are coming to International Capital not thenand exposing investors to currency risk. But all of that should bode well for all three assets, fixed income, equities, and currencies, from emerging markets. Francine netnet, as always nette, as always, thank you so much. Nannette hechlerfaydherbe, chief investment officer, International Wealth management, and global head of economics and research at Credit Suisse. A roundup ofme, the Global Banking needs. 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