Caroline you know what . I will go for the interruption technique. No, i am going to play nice. By caffeine and sugar. I tried sweet potato with marshmallow on top, and American American top, an delicacy. Not so sure about it. Onathan a quiet day ahead both sides of the olanta. Caroline of the atlantic. Caroline this is like a black friday of no other. We will have empty stores. Everyone is online. But those traders will still be logging onto their computers. I feel as though perhaps we are going to get a little more activity than we use to. Certainly we sought on the cryptocurrency front. Jonathan we start with equity futures and work our way through the bond market, foreignexchange as well. Equity futures up about seven on the s p 500. We advanced 0. 2 . Outside of that, and the bond market, mentioned the bid into treasuries. Yields coming in on the 30 year to 0. 86 . Eurodollar, some really big calls coming through. Theres a feeling that maybe next year is a repeat of 2017, when we had that global synchronized growth and a really strong euro. We are nicely through 1. 19 now. Caroline it is interesting, whether the eurozone manages to , as that fiscal firepower well as the monetary firepower, and in the United States as well come up with janet yellen coming into the Treasury Department. We will see some interesting headlines in terms of brexit. That brexit bickering once again as we line up towards the weekend. I want to get you up to speed with what we are looking at in terms of events. Is the official start of black friday, the sales event, the kick off to the crucial holiday sales period for retailers. Department stores will be hoping that measures will help offset the trend away from brickandmortar to online. Monday, an unofficial up meeting ahead of the official meeting on tuesday. Weve actually got a little bit of weakness in oil on the back of that today. Tuesday is day one of testimony from fed chair jay powell and treasury secretary steven mnuchin. Havent been getting on so well of late. That will be absolutely fascinating next week to see how much daylight there will be between the two of them. Lets start the conversation off with peter dixon, commerzbank Global Equities economist. Great to catch up with you. Just want to start with a basic one. Seems to me that nobody wants to sell down risk for the first vaccination. Do you share that view . Peter good morning. It is true, i think that at the , we are not entirely sure how this is going to play out. We had lots of questions regarding the astrazeneca situation, but markets not willing to sell off at the. Oment obviously the holiday disrupted period has forced to do musters onto the back foot has forced investors onto the back foot. We had a couple of weeks of trading in fear to come. Normally you would expect things to start winding down, but i think there were so moving parts that we can expect a very interesting two weeks. My view is that we should be positive. A bit higher than we are now. Downside risks. Jonathan lets talk about the slips we have hot already. Jobless claims moving the wrong way last week, moving the wrong way this week. I keep asking how big will our tolerance be as we work our way through to negative data in the United States of america. Can we shake off 3, 4, 5, 6 weeks . Peter thats a fair point. How many data points do you need to see a pattern or a trend here . I think the markets are looking a bit further ahead than this. The labor market in the states has taken a massive hit, and that is the case in other markets around the world. True that we are short of where we were back in february, and as you said, it is running in the wrong direction. Year get to the end of the without any major problems, i think the market can weather that. But if the claims number start to move in the wrong direction, that is the point at which markets will start to get worried, and given the mounting number of covid cases everywhere , obviously in the United States that certainly is a major risk. Thatine i am interested not all markets are the same this moment. Forms, once again the socalled rotation trade, a turn of phrase we used too much of the moment, is on hold. Can we move higher without big tech leading charge, or do you expect big tech will once again become the game plan for investors . I think there are a number of issues there. In terms of the bigger picture, i do think that the tech buterse will boom higher, we have to look at the parts of the tech sector we like or which have a postcovid future, and those which perhaps have done well thanks to the lockdown. So do you want to spit with netflix in a world in which we are getting back to some form of normality, whereas it has been a game changer in terms of the online trading platforms . There is definitely still value there, but whether it is the same trade we saw prior to the lockdowns i would question. In terms of the nontext sector the nontext sector, it is the nontech sector, it is really dependent on the news at the moment. At the moment, theres nothing which is floating around. Caroline the russell 2000 up 20 on the months, a record month at record highs. The dow at that sacred number, 30,000. Meanwhile, bonds remain completely range bound, never really getting above one percentage point. At what point might we see people back away from these valuations if the yield does pick up that much higher in the u. S. . Peter for this question, you have to ask yourself what are Central Banks going to do, and the likelihood is they will stay active for a long time to come, so i think we are talking another six months or there about at least before we have to Start Talking about significant moves in yields. The market could have a pickup if we start to have good start to have more good vaccine news. But i generally dont think that yields are going to go anywhere anytime fast. So whatever they pickup in the first half of the year they probably do in the second half. Jonathan can we talk about why . I want to talk about the bond market for a moment. Market has rallied, as caroline pointed out. We had that great rotation. This bond market, yields just havent come with it. Do you think it is technical because people believe the fed steps in and puts a lid on it, or there are some doubts in this bond market about the trajectory for growth, for inflation for the years to come . Say it is 80 fed, be 20 of the fundamentals. There are some people out there there have been such damage to the supply side of the economy that you might see inflation pick up. That is not my view, but it is out there. Generally speaking, i would see rates going sideways. I think that is going to be the theme certainly for the early months of 2021. Jonathan peter, great to catch up. Just checking on the bond market at the moment, we got a curve that is flatter, a bit into the bond market. Yields down by three basis points on the 30 year, down on tens to about 0. 86 . You can push through a more constructive view for 2021 with a vaccine, the comfort blanket of a better world around you. Can you push that view through the equity market . Right now, yes. Absolutely. In the treasury market, can you do the same thing . I think many people are struggling with an answer to that right now. Caroline it is going to be so telling what we hear coming from fed chair powell in the next week, what we hear from treasury secretary mnuchin, and what we alan blinder last week, that what treasury secretary mnuchin, he called it mean, called it crazy, the fact that it has gotten a little bit harder to have that safety net in terms of programs to support small to mediumsized enterprises, programs that supports municipals. But the insurance policy was there. How will we see janet yellen steer that from a treasury policy perspective and support theos economy when some of the akamai data is not looking so the u. S. And support economy when some of the Economic Data is not looking so pretty. Jonathan looking for to catching up with drew matus a little bit later. For our audience worldwide, heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is bloomberg surveillance. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. President trump says he will relinquish power if the Electoral College signals joe bidens victory, but says he may never concede defeat and could despite inauguration, no evidence of widespread fraud. The u. K. And the eu are ready to restart facetoface brexit talks. There are substantial and important differences to be bridged, i sentiment echoed by the eus chief negotiator michel barnier. Each said the onus is on the other to make a decided move if a deal is to be reached. Ireland, which was the First Western european country to reimpose lockdown, is getting ready to ease its coronavirus curbs today. The Prime Minister will lay out a plan likely to include reopening most stores, gyms and after his coming days cabinet finalize the details. Across the border, Northern Ireland is moving to introduce new curbs, enclosing new curbs, including the closure of nonessential stores. Caseshas 570 new covered in the past 24 hours alone, the highest oneday total since the pendant up again. The spike comes on the final day before a request for tokyo bars and restaurants to close early goes into effect saturday. Officials are tracking cases in the capital as a yardstick for requesting restrictions on businesses. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Pres. Trump it is going to be a very hard thing to concede because we know there was massive fraud. So as to whether or not i can get this apparatus moving this quickly, because time isnt on our side Everything Else is on our soured. Facts are on our side. Jonathan the president still yet to prove the massive fraud he keeps talking about. Good morning to you all. Live on bloomberg tv and radio. Lisa abramowicz and tom keene will be back on monday. On the s p 500, about to deliver another week of gains for the small caps. Four straight weeks of gains for the russell on course. The sb 500 the s p 500 on course for a weekly gain of about 2 . We see a bit into the bond market at the long end. Flatter curve, down to basis points on the 10 year to 0. 86 . 1. 1920. Ar, that is a stronger euro. The calls are coming in for europe, i think it was barclays looking for 13 upside on the stock 600 and 222 anyone. Into the 600 stoxx 600 into 2021. To pendulum has swung optimism. Caroline it is the rotation trade, isnt it . We have seen japanese stocks do well in this desire to get into ,he cyclical trade, and europe maybe it is finally time to start getting into it. Jonathan the tensioner on the fiscal side that we still have not resolved in europe and the United States as well. Its turned to kevin cirilli, bloomberg chief washington correspondent. The president was asked in the last 24 hours would he leave the said,ng, and he certainly i will, and you know that. I thing it was the first acknowledgment of what this process might looks like. Kevin in speaking with sources over the past week, i think it is really clear here that there is a political calculation that the outgoing president is making with regards to the next two years and four years of his own political strategy, and for him specifically, it comes down to three areas. First and foremost, does he want to run for president again . Secondly, does he want to play political kingmaker of sorts in midterms or in 2024 . Thirdly, what are next for his future business endeavors . Whether it is in media circles or in Additional Real Estate circles, if he goes back to his life prior to this, those are really the three spheres of influence that he is confronting every time he weighs in about the issue of concession because that has become a political bargaining chip and a communicative bargaining chip that he has now been able to deploy how he wants. Jonathan forgive me for asking you to get out your crystal ball early on in this conversation, but lets talk about what the president was responding to. It was a question as to whether he would physically leave after the Electoral College confirms bidens victory. Can you walk me through what that period looks like, between that and the georgia runoff . Kevin it is quite remarkable because you have the january 20 inauguration for president elect joe biden, so it really is a matter of hours on that day. It is quite interesting to see how former president s have reacted to that, where they fly off typically to joint base andrews, where they then become private citizens again. Antisemitic in that regard, very anticlimactic in that regard, and it has been for quite some time. Really calming folks around the country who were worried about what the traditional peaceful transition of power would look like. And then with georgia and the special Runoff Election, that is january 5. It allows for the president to play a significant role in trying to maintain and keep a republican majority in the senate. Caroline talk to us about the republicans and how they are responding to what might be the first sign of some concession coming from President Trump and the fact that he will walk out of that building. How are they responding . How are they setting themselves up for any bipartisan nature going into january 20 . Kevin to be honest, the issue of him leaving or being , icefully removed was really think most people expected that he will leave peacefully. I think there was a lot of andourse around it, sensationalized discourse around it. Secondly, many republicans have been urging him to concede to be allowed to begin with the transition of power. The Government ServicesAdministration Coordinating with the biden team. There were the first meetings on operation warp speed with regard to the vaccination process, between the current and incoming administrations. But i think historians are definitely breathing a sigh of relief because the peaceful transition of power is truly a hallmark of american tradition. Caroline im still really taken with this relationship it would be Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve as well. The sort of disposition, the fact that they got drawn apart for the first time last week, with treasury secretary mnuchin coming in with a curveball no one really expected. We now have this optimism in the markets that the relationship between fiscal and Monetary Policy will be a close one if we get janet yellen. Talk is of talk to us about the hopes and prayers for some fiscal spending, and whether it might be prejanuary 20 or not. Kevin it is remarkable because you go back to yellens confirmation process in january of 2014, and she was able to about 11 plus of republican senators at the time, who voted for her confirmation process. She was obviously an obama pick. I bring that up because several of those republicans who voted for her are no longer in office, but one of those senators who did not vote at the time, in a situation that we are approaching where every vote is going to matter, is lindsey graham. Whether or not he will vote to confirm her i will be looking for. I dont for see any significant hurdles to her confirmation process specifically, but it will be interesting to see if Susan Collins again votes to confirm janet yellen. A couple of things on my radar. December 11, they have to pass a continuing resolution to evert a government shutdown, right around the corner. Secondly, the issue of outgoing treasury secretary manage and with fed chair powell secretary mnuchin with fed chair powell, that is falling along party lines. Finally, to be honest with you, the biggest variable is whether or not the uptick in covid19 cases are going to impact fiscal stimulus talks. Jonathan especially after thanksgiving and the amount of travel we have seen. In about 60 seconds, whenever you take time off, tom gives you such a hard time. Hes not here today. This is an opportunity for you to take a dig. Kevin oh well. Tom keene, are you listening . I am going to say tom, i want to be graceful i am known to ask, question. Does tom keene think i could pull off a bowtie . To be honest, i dont even know how to tie a bowtie. Ive googled it and i dont even know how to do it. Jonathan i struggled to take them seriously at the best of times, and if you do that, i dont know what to say. Kevin cirilli, chief washington correspondent down in d. C. , i guarantee tom keene is listening , but with a little bit of a hangover. A long time alongside Caroline Hyde this morning, i jonathan ferro. This is bloomberg. Businesses today are looking to tomorrow. Adapting. Innovating. Setting the course. But new ways of working demand a new type of network. One thats more than just fast. You need flexibility to work from anywhere. And manage from everywhere. Advanced technology. With serious security. And reliable coverage, nationwide. Forwardthinking enterprises, deserve forwardthinking solutions. And thats what we deliver. So bounce forward, with comcast business. Jonathan from london and new york this morning, good morning. For our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance. Alongside Caroline Hyde this morning. No tom keene, no lisa abramowicz, which means i can take my breath a little bit. No one is going to jump in. Heres your equity market this morning. Futures of about seven. Do it, caroline. [laughter] where nasdaq, that is your outperformance is come up about 0. 3 . A bit of a defensive posture. Outperforming on the month, though. What a moment it has been. The russell having its best month ever, unreal. Yields just havent participated in a big way. Yields are lower this morning. The bond market is bid, the Treasury Curve is flatter. About twoyear, down basis points to 0. 86 . Finish on this board right here. I want to finish on europe and give you a picture of things right now. The optimism and constructive you on the constructive view on the continent has really started to pick up. Of1, do we have a repeat 2017, that global synchronized growth . A 14 move on eurodollar. Where did we finish that year . 1. 20, funnily enough. That is pretty much where we are right now. The stoxx 600 pretty much unchanged on the day. Next