Crew touching 95 a barrel. 4. 6427 is the new cycle high. Tom this thursday is more tumultuous than monday through wednesday. An equity pop at the back end and we are short covered. And the optimist will be here with us in a little bit. You have to reset and recalibrate. There was a moment yesterday and let me get out the surveillance mouse and tell you that we had a 2. 30 10 year real yields. I did not frame that six months ago. Jonathan the equity market is kind of a snooze. Bond market huge moves. Fx one point four briefly against the dollar. The dollaryen getting closer to 150. Lisa that is exactly the right observation. Why are stocks so subtle and why are they not responding to the markets. Is there just simply a paralysis, or this is forced selling for funds that do not have a big position. At this point are we looking at some unraveling that is gaining steam that nobody wants to get in the way of. Tom i am going to when mike mckeen gives us the gdp blah blah blah, but there is a massive multiple set of revisions to our economy, and it is not probable, but possible that 8 31 this morning Jerome Powell and the team down in washington go hoops. Jonathan crisis ok but not as good as we thought it was . Tom yes. Lisa will tell us in the brief, but this thing at 8 30, it is a tough tell, it will turn the market trauma into what we see it 8 30. Jonathan and then if claims come in around 200 k, 201 the previous week. Lisa if we keep getting this lack of response, if the labor markets keep staying strong with all of the wage pressure in the headlines and beyond, how much does this keep this feeling that rates will be higher for longer and, if anything, the fed is underestimating what it needs to do. Jonathan they are higher again this morning. Equity futures just turning positive in the last 10 minutes. Posited by 0. 1 . There is the move in crude. Pulling back after briefly be breaching 95. There is your move in the bond market. Right now. 460 282. Higher off of the session and the cycle. Lisa the highest going back since 2007. At one point people said that they are buyers and at one point they are stepping back. I take your point about jobless claims which is your most important Economic Data of the day and we also get the Second Quarter and we might get an upward revision. Initial jobless claims, if they keep coming in nowhere spill nowheresville, they have basically flatlined over the past two years in particular, how much do we get this feeling that this economy is stronger than what many people expected. We were asking about fed speakers, we have four of them. We have the chicago fed president , lisa cook and tom barkin with Michael Mckee. This is going to be really interesting, not only tom barkin, but 4 00 p. M. , jay powell will be hosting a town hall with educators at a time where it is curious his response to what the market moves have been. We are going to talk about his education policy, but we will be curious about how he weighs in. Tom bring in those beautiful places again. Steve was on fire, and he really got emotional and said that Jerome Powell is not alan greenspan. Basically he alluded, not to put words in his mouth, that Jerome Powell does not have control over the debate. He was wound up and i told the team to get a video block on that so you could steal it for your other property. But, there is a debate here about the dynamics. I make jokes about it but you are right, the fed speaker. Jonathan something on my side that was implied about the forecast, explain that again. Lisa i would also say that steve went on to say at the composition right now of the fed does not give the market confidence that they have the conviction to get inflation back down to 2 . Nike earnings and blackberry and maybe we will get a sense of what the ski season will look like. Making nike earnings will be key as Consumer Discretionary shares, falling 10 . So how much do we start to see some of the weakness play through that. That was pretty recently. Jonathan you bought some new sneakers . Lisa a year ago. Tom you need a backup pair. Lisa i know. I am always interested in what they do because there was not as much now last year so how they get through that. And then he gets crowded so do you end up with package deals or not . Tom youre going to throw euroseas your skis over . Lisa as long as they do not crash into me, you are good. Jonathan the chief investment strategist of of and heimer joins us. 4900 on the s p 500 year end, can you tell us how much of a challenge that you see from the bond market currently . I will must say that in the near term there is a challenge in terms of perception, but it is not really uncommon when you go through the type of transition we are going through, and the seasonality involved in the month, you have to consider that you will question how are we doing with that . We had a 4400 target that last december people thought was very high that was in june or july of this year. And that is when we addressed and moved our target higher. At the end of the at the end of the day, it is the end of free money and we think this is a good thing. Bond issuers have to pay for the privilege of borrowing money and buyers get something in return. It puts hl, and i think that is what a that is what we are seeing. That money is prime to lobby the fed to begin to go into an extended pause or cut rates. Instead of going through this gauntlet that they have to run through to get close to them. Tom we are staggering into october. September did not exist and it went fast. My theme for the year is the great zombie rollup. You just alluded to it. Money because something and the zombies will go up get rolled up or go out of business. How do you play that on a sector basis . Do you buy the zombies or people removed from the bay from the debate . John the people removed from that debate because my mandate is more conservative in the sense that it is in dividend stocks that grow faster than peers. On a global basis the industries that we use are the most speculative, but the more traditional indices that they are used. We think that there is a tremendous appetite for distressed assets, and you have to figure the distressed buyers usually in crises that we have experienced over the last 40 years never really satisfy the appetite for distressed coming out of it, because usually the fed can make mistakes. But the basic mandate of the fed really defines the fact that they will be successful. Tom but, bank of america long ago when you were with robert there. He used to trip over the value line once a month which focuses on the floor. You trip over that puppy as you did that securities analysis. What are you actually studying in this bond and fx turmoil . John what we are really studying is the cause, looking at the effect, and recognizing from what we see is that the fed has been remarketed remarkably sensitive to the outcome of its practice of its mandate to the underlying economy. And then it has been helped out by all of the fiscal stimulus with the bridge over troubled waters and a fed funds hike cycle process. And then technology, advanced logistics and things that help companies, the Good Companies whether the tough storms better than they could in a primitive era. Most certainly, we look at the Economic Data and we see slowing quite evident, but not surprising. And yet we do not see the economy falling off a cliff. Lisa as your is your bullet bullish view on stocks predicated by the events of last year . John it is based on the fact that the fed is getting closer to the end of this cycle meaning an extended pause to get some assurance that Jerome Powell does not have to be worried about being recognized as another arthur burns. That is pretty evident in his thinking. He wants his legacy to be a good one. He will probably get cuts towards the end of next year, mostly because he would expect that the fed would have been more successful than not about curbing inflation and putting it in check and bring it down some, and there is one more hike to the end of this year and then maybe next year or even two. Jonathan 4900 on the s p, given the potential for a hike for next for this year and intentionally two next year . John we publish weekly in our report two tables that show the performance of the market for maximum drawdown and a variety of things, whether it is the fed funds rate or the cbi and it is all listed and our clients can look at that and discuss it with their advisors. What we have found with my experiences that stocks actually go up when Interest Rates are higher. And as far as i can remember during the. When during the period when paul was there and everybody thought the fed would fail. Everybody thinks the fed will sail until it wasnt. The stocks were going up while you still had coupons available anywhere from 11 to 12 . Jonathan are you the official oppenheimer cheerleader . Tom this is a theory that no one believes. I made does dumb decisions at this time. You heard it 47 times without a drink in my hand and 142 with a drink in my hand. Companies adjust. Jonathan john, thank you. Company is companies adjusting but can stocks and valuations adjust . Tom for a chosen few we got way ahead. We look at spx to a negative statistic yesterday afternoon. What i loved was the bridge over 12 over troubled waters. That is a good allusion for the stress that people face. When you are down and out and on the street, when you are toxic groove. Jonathan that is yours. Lisa the lyrics. Tom when the toxic groove fall so hard on you. Lisa there is a real question about the liquidity backdrop, about where the money will come from to juice the stocks at higher levels. Ok, that is what people say about what is it mean . If you can park it and get 5 or almost 5 . If you can do that what is the point of taking a moonshot risk on Companies Facing a lot of headwind. Tom the most important thing this week is mike wilson going i am not cash. Wilson is in the market while he is cautious. Jonathan he is the chief equity strategists. Tom that is amazing. Jonathan greg is running is next. Were you up all night watching the debates, is is what this was . The latest on the debates up next. Bidennomics have failed. Autoworkers are feeling it and families are struggling. We need a new approach to trying to china, we will have real hard power to deter their positions. We will have economic independence. We need to deliver Economic Growth and unlock american energy. Rail, and burn coal and embrace nuclear energy. Put people back to work. Jonathan governor mike pence santos on the gop governor residential debate stage. We will bring some more from nikki haley as well. Again after the gop debate writing this , trump is still the alltime favorite and it is unlikely that they will be a late entry. Could trump also win the general election . We do not rule it out. Democrats in this town are worried. Tom the Washington Post, that is great. They are watching this. Did you watch last night . Jonathan no. Lisa it was too late for me. Tom michael nearly after two hours of debate it is clear that dog is wearing the largest American Flag pin. That is the analysis from the very calm confident michael. We will get worse analysis from greg, the chief u. S. Policy strategist at agf of investments. In his blistering love note for all of you this morning is that it was cringe inducing. Expand on the moment last night. Greg good morning, sorry i have phone problems. It was cringe inducing. It was a two hour of nonstop espresso. I had several cups of coffee trying to stay awake. Tom if it is a gop debate, what percentage of the american voting public . 15 or dare i say 30 . Greg i think they are speaking to nikki haley, and i think they are speaking to ron desantis. They had pretty good nights and they had to have pretty good nights. I think it is a little too early to write them off. I think haley is an outstanding debater. Lisa what is interesting is that everyone assumes that donald trump is the winner by not showing up at a time when there is a lot of questions around his viability as a candidate. You say the democrats should be worried. Why are democrats the ones most worried after the debate . Greg the polls show a dead heat between donald trump and joe biden. There was one infamous pole a few days ago in the Washington Post which showed biden trailing by 10. No one believed it but the polls are showing a dead heat. If you think about what all of trump has been through, 93 indictments, this race is a tie . That is not a good story for the democrats. Lisa let us talk about what the former president was doing in michigan when he spoke with a nonunion auto Manufacturing Parts Company talking about the need for fossil fuels, a similar theme to what we heard. What how much will this be one of the hallmarks of the republican platform, basically antigreen platform . Greg it is a big deal. First of all michigan has 16 electoral votes which is important. I do think that being against all of the new stuff is probably a good place to be in a state like michigan. Tom this is nixonkennedy and no one holding a dogs ears up. This is a process and in the process people will drop out. I see no incentive on an ego basis for people to drop out. What is the incentive to get off the debate stage . Greg a lot of them would like to be players and have their own talkshows and things like that. I will make you guys a wager. The first major candidate to drop out will be mike pence. He had an awful night with no energy. I think he could be out by thanksgiving. Tom that is a side prediction. Are all of these people running for Cabinet Office . Is scott of the carolinas running to be secretary of commerce or secretary of treasury or whatever . Greg sure. To be uncynical for a minute, i think they have a message that they want to discuss or scott did on race last night and i thought he was eloquent. They want to stick around for a while. The key will be running out of money. Hence is almost pence is almost out of money and others have enough to get through the end of the year. I think you will see a lot of big contributors not giving much more. Lisa three months ago people would say wait we do not know what this race would be. It could be somebody very different than former President Trump and President Biden. Some people were talking about Glenn Youngkin or california Governor Newsom coming into the seer, why do you think that the train is leaving the station or anything other than a bidentrump matchup . Greg filing deadlines. A lot of states have filing deadlines by late october and early november. I do think the train is leaving the station for Glenn Youngkin and gavin newsom. I think theyll have to wait for another four years. Lisa what did you make of the negative feelings towards a shut down. The antipathy toward the right wingers who are trying to shut down the government as soon as saturday night . Greg we are now entering one of the Great Washington games which is the blame game, who gets blamed . And mccarthy all of a sudden has decided to blame biden, the should and it the senate and the democrats and that will be his theme. Jonathan i want to finish up on nikki haley and a lot of people think she did a tremendous job in that debate aced on the reviews i have seen. If you look at the polls taking on the current President Joe Biden she does tremendously well. What could she do at the primary level to make sure that she is it for next year . Greg i think you hit on it, her argument is that she can win the general election, and i think she could do well. She is outstanding debateer and i think she will be in the race for quite a while. Jonathan thank you for your view. Greg from agf investments. Rounds two of the gop and it lacked the buzz of the previous debate. Aside from the performance of nikki haley but based on the polls that you see on the national level, greg had put out the argument for her going forward. Tom the thing i detest and i got one observation that is important, but the thing i detest is the right tv does this litmus test voting thing where they will bring up a topic and they want you on record. It is cringe inducing. I have a question for you. He said something important, these people run out of money. In the United Kingdom and the beautiful short contained ballet jonathan it is not the same issue. The way that elections are financed here are completely different and completely foreign to those who follow british elections. Tom i will pick york, i do not know what it is up north in a really important borrow borough or whatever you call them, it does not run out of money. Jonathan this leadership race would go quickly. Tom we are so flawed on this. Jonathan what would change it . Tom senator mccain and others tried to change it and got crushed in court, that is the short answer. They tried. Lisa i think that right now the most interesting take away is as much noise as we keep hearing whether it is the shutdown or political bath backandforth or the arguments in both stories, the dollar is preeminent. People still view the nation as the worlds main economy. You say all of these things and yet here we are. It does not seem to have jeopardized the nations standing which is the question, at what point is there a Vigilante Movement to force change because it is not there. Jonathan you have the luxury of being reckless on certain issues, you do when it comes to shut down and debt ceiling debate. We know what the reaction is and it is by treasury it is by the u. S. Government u. S. Dollar. Did you see Governor Newsom speaking again . Those two should have a show talking about crude production and energy independence. The gop are coming after the energy story of the democrats and the president. Look at where energy is currently in america and you can say it is because of this lighthizer despite it. We have crude production pushing 13 Million Barrels a day. Coming up, the chief economist of pantheon, the equity market totally unchanged with a little bit of a snooze and maybe that is welcome news. Is it possible to fall in love with your home. Before you even step inside . Discover the Magn