Our top story this morning, President Biden touching. Down in israel. A single blast in a hospital in gaza killing hundreds and israel is letting hamas and hamas is blaming israel. The exposing explosion threatening to tip things over the edge. Pres. Biden based on what i have seen, it appears it was someone on the other team. There are a lot of people out there. We have to overcome a lot of things. Jon the stakes for this trip cannot be hired. How do you ensure aid gets to gaza and civilians are kept out of harms way . President biden has arrived here in tel aviv and he was greeted by Benjamin Netanyahu. This is a very different trip then joe biden planning to do for hours ago, this was a twolegged trip originally. First in tel aviv and the second in jordan. What can joe biden achieve . You can suppose you can show support for the israelis. Chuck schumer was here in this building a few days ago. We understand to client 2000 soldiers on high alert but the third bid, the diplomatic side, has been by the exposing in the hospital in northern gaza. That has been completely torn to pieces. Tom what are the ramifications for the president and the american contingent that the era part of the trip is canceled the arab part of the trip is canceled . Oliver i think it is huge. The fact that the rest of this in the arab world is incensed about this and even though President Biden, considers from what he had seen that this was not an israeli operation or affect that has not been totally clarified, this is another 500 people dead in a hospital that has been overburdened and for many people in the region, that is not the sticking point, that is nuanced that is not in front of their nine minds. Lisa we are Getting Better around is calling for an oil embargo against israel based on what we saw with the explosion, how much is this prickling percolating out . Oliver i think it has only gotten greater since what happened last night and it is the shutting down of that diplomatic channel and the conversations that would have been key. What can joe biden achieve . May be getting some of that aid will from the southern order of gaza getting that into gaza to pull some of the relief a little bit would be a diplomatic step forward but apart from that, it is hard to see and we will be watching your the press conference after he has met with israeli leadership but we understand some of the victims that encountered that attacks in southern israel so we will watch for that press conference, we dont know what time. Jon i went to pick up on sunday you suggested. Israel working to allow civilians to leave through the r aza rusting. It is unclear if it is for foreign nationals or foreign nationals. Oliver the jordanians said it is a redline. It will be a another part of this complicated problem. Puzzle. This is at the very heart of this issue and it is seen as a liquid fee territory and moving people from their homes into another country and that is not acceptable for many of these leaders. Tom does the president have a agenda for white house schedule when where we know when he leaves . Is this a structured trip as usual or are they making it up as they go . Oliver we get the sense that they are making it up as they go a little. This was supposed to be a longer trip that has a jordanian component but it has evaporated. You dont expect the president tuesday overnight in the region. As we have seen with Antony Blinken, the schedule has moved and has been fluid. Olaf scholz was here. We do not have that expectation but everything is on the table. Jon there is a growing presence in the Eastern Mediterranean, can you walk us through what we heard yesterday about the kinds of numbers the u. S. Has on standby . Oliver but we heard his 2000 troops on high alert and we have what we heard is 2000 troops on high alert. In terms of deterrence, this is going to be absolutely huge but it will provide military aid to israel and you hear every day, the iron dome taking rockets out of the supply and that has unlimited ammunition. There is the question of hezbollah, if they get involved, they have a unknown number of thousands of rockets stationed in southern lebanon deep underground and if they fire many of them, could overwhelm the system so this is the great fear of escalation in israel and this is the situation that has been made infinitely more complicated by the explosion at the hospital. Jon oli crook on the ground in tel aviv. The president of the United States could be speaking in the next few hours or so. The backandforth, trading accusations and hamas blaming israel, and israel pointing toward a video the pressure will be on israel to provide evidence on what they are suggesting an eight the next 24 hours will be immense suggesting in the next 24 hours will be immense. Tom what is interesting, is that phase praise Islamic Jihad is the phrase, Islamic Jihad. Lisa theres the question around how many proxy agents are there in the region that are being funded by iran and are connected and if there are different factions, there are feelings that there are more people involved. What is the trigger point for something that will viral into another frame of mind . You are seeing fears of that. Jon getting reports from afp, thank you for our team in brussels. Tom i think across Continental Europe and closer to israel, this will be a theme. This is in the u. S. As well. Maybe it is hidden and maybe it is out of the picture but i think all intelligence communities of every persuasion are hyper focused. It is falling into the markets. I am looking at the screen and with the president in tel aviv, there is new tension. Jon equities is self a little bit south. Wti crude 89. 23, up three percentage point. Points. Disturbing pictures in the last 24 hours and for much of the last 10 days. You look at the market, there is a belief that maybe this could stay localized and theres something that investors can ignore. Is that the wrong approach to be situation . It is a terrible human tragedy and from a market perspective, anytime you see rising and uncertain Geopolitical Uncertainty, that is better for markets. That is bad for markets. It is coming at, a vulnerable time. Where a for all that, i think it is ingredients of worry. The only nonnegative thing i can say about this is these high levels of uncertainty have become a new normal over the last couple years whether it is the ukraine invasion. I think the Market Reaction you are seeing, whether it is stocks not selling off or whether it is haven acids not rallying as much as people think, unfortunately, we just got used to these very high levels of uncertainty in the last few years. Lisa are you saying that because people have gotten too high levels of uncertainty, there is going to be a big asset repricing as a response . That is the scenario that has played out so far and i am not a geopolitical analyst and there is huge uncertainty. Things could get worse easily. That explains the situation so far. The one thing i would say, oil is the key worry point among assets. A little bit of context, this is ninth this is not the 1970s and the economies are 60 , 70 Less Energy Intensive than they were back then. It is a big deal. I am worried about it. I do think it will self correct. Every dollar you have hundred 90, everyone is trying to use less oil and the economies are different now than they were. Lisa Goldman Sachs said that markets are not accurately pressing some of the risk out there. A team at Goldman Sachs saying a prolonged period of deal Geopolitical Uncertainty coupled with is likely to trigger growth concerns. On the margins, are you taking off risk in life of the heightened risk scenario we have on the table . Ben i think we are in an environment where you need to be invested but reasonably cautious. GeoPolitical Risks are rising and that is not good. 90 oil, bond yields where they are, it is not good but we should be focusing on the bigger picture, which i think remains reasonably constructive in the Interest Rate cycle is coming to an end. The economies are almost as good as they are going to get. The earnings cycle is traffic troughing and you will get technical tailwinds from seasonality and investors are cautious and that is the ingredients on why the markets arent reacting more negatively. Jon ben later laidler. You can have a bank ceo turn around and tell you it is the most dangerous the world has been in decades and the very same thing ceo can lose their guidance and deliver better numbers. Lisa the idea that the emotion of the moment is incoherent with the coldhearted nature with the market trying to game out probabilities and we do have a level hanging over your head where you have such explosive types of scenarios in a key region, it takes its toll and that is what i am hearing from notes whether it is from Goldman Sachs strategists and bank of america. These are some of the things i am watching. Jon we will talk about goldman later in the hour. This bond market absolutely punishing. 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Is it possible to fall in love with your home. Before you even step inside . Discover the Magnolia Home james hardie collection. Available now in siding colors, styles and textures. Curated by joanna gaines. Nearly everything has changed and want to make the argument that the president was going with a significant amount of political and moral capital for having taken a very unambiguous stance on the question of terrorism and israels right to defend itself, in preparing for this trip, you have the backdrop of a horrific event at the hospital in gaza. The trading blame doesnt change the fact that hundreds of people have been killed. Jon that was the former u. S. Ambassador to israel or balance of power, arguably the most difficult trip the president of the u. S. Has been on during his tenure in the white house. This line from Israel Defense forces. A failed iaf footage from the area around the hospital before and after the failed rocket launch that was posted on twitter. The pressure to work out what has happened here in the intensity of this trip, i cannot really convey how difficult this moment is for the president. It was hard enough to begin with 24 hours ago. Lisa especially with the protests that have been percolating out with the region in the region and beyond. They were dramatic in their is a question on whether the stances of egypt and saudi arabia are shifting based on statements they put out, taking a side and blaming israel. It raises the specter on how much harder it will be for President Biden to get some sort of cease fire, an agreement when lines are hardening. Tom i cannot go to a cease fire. We are miles away from that place and with the Israeli Military is going to decide to do here. Perhaps when the president leaves and beyond. I see a lot of this pharmacy of this policy of diplomacy going on. Jon the headlines are diplomacy is not taking place. One part israel, the second part in jordan and almost immediately after the blast, several people canceling the trip and that was the key part of the reason, the objective of making the trip to begin with. Tom for most of the americans not familiar with the geography, the west bank is east of the jordan river and what is so important is the analysis of israel is what should have happened, what should happen forward, and it centers around this west bank. That is buttressed against jordan. Jon negative by one third of 1 , no trauma in the equity market and s p 500 and lenny of trauma in the equity market and plenty of trauma in the equity market. We have a running in crude. Wti is getting closer to 90. Tom visit for the sophisticates this is for the sophisticates. That is really a team leaf of tea leaf of the tension out there. Leslie, i have to go to when your recent essays, everyone in your world is writing and thinking in looking back and forward. You look back and say america went off the watch in the labonte. What did we do wrong . There is a sense that with the withdrawal in afghanistan, as tough of that as tough as that was, america could focus their priorities are teasingly on china and that with checked by russias invasion of ukraine that brought america squarely back to the euro atlantic, with full force with nato. There has been a hope and a belief that this was a president that will finally execute on that intention of so Many American president s to reduce americas footprint in the middle east and to focus on the Strategic Priorities and number one with china and this has shown in spades that america is an essential power and we have had china at its 10 Year Anniversary of the belt and Road Initiative the belton Road Initiative. It is clear with President Bidens trip and ongoing diplomacy, this is difficult with the u. S. In the present and the past, they are complicated but it demonstrates that the u. S. Needs to stay engaged. Tom we were talking about the military exercise we believed to, and we do not have reports of that yet. Leslie vinjamuri, you borrow from in a postamerican world, what is a post hamas world what does a post hamas world look like . Leslie it is hard to imagine. That is an objective. We are off far off the cease fire and it is widely expected that when President Biden leaves the region, there will be a Ground Invasion. That will be very difficult in an context of urban warfare but that objective is to rule out hamas. We are looking at probably a devastating loss of life for palestinians on the ground and there is no Good Alternative and this is the real challenge. We note the pa has not demonstrated the ability to govern, can be a vacuum in israel and cannot take over gaza. There is nowhere for the palestinians to go and the problem is who governs in a gaza, if and when governs in gaza, if and when this crisis is brought to a close. That is where the strategic parity has got to be. Lisa how much more some diplomacy for President Biden based on some of the rhetoric out of the government of egypt, of saudi arabia, nations that previously might have been more amenable to working with President Biden . Leslie that is the great tragedy, there was the push to put together an agreement and relationship between saudi and israel and now governments across the region will be contending with profit with public pressure, grievances from palestinians who have been killed. That makes it more difficult, now only to engage on this question not only to engage on this question of a cease fire, putting together some sort of Regional Peace initiative. But to be seen in doing this in a context of a massive loss of civilian life and this is why we are seeing President Biden in public, behindthescenes, working back channels. There is an effort to get some resolution tabled at the un security council. I really strong push a really strong push and an uphill battle to have committed 30 humanitarian corridors. These are all tremendously difficult things to achieve even in the best of circumstances. Jon particularly unnerving yesterday evening to see the protests around across the middle east in expected places, lebanon to see them arrive in natos turkey, can you talk about the relationship between lebanon and turkey . Leslie it is difficult to square turkey as a vital partner to the u. S. And nato. When you talk about israel and palestine, the politics of different. Our different the politics are different. America is a supporter of israel and the close relationship has the effect of alienating people on the palestinian side and making that process prospect of bringing some of americas closest partners on board to work for what we are so far off that prospect for peace, the question is can there even be a significant effort to protect civilians, which is what the president is trying to articulate, but many people are trying to call for. It looks very difficult. Jon lags Leslie Vinjamuri of chatter mouse chatham house. To finally lose 80 pounds and keep it off with golo is amazing. Ive been maintaining. The weight is gone and its never coming back. With golo, ive not only kept off the weight but im happier, im healthier, and i have a new lease on life. Golo is the only thing that will let you lose weight and keep it off. Who loses 138 pounds in nine months . 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