Live from new york city, good morning. What a week ahead. Nobody earnings two days away. Coming into monday nvidia earnings two days away. We are picking up on the sent of capitulation at Morgan Stanley. Mike wilson has a new year end price target, 5400. The old price target, 4500. A wider range of outcomes and opportunities. Lisa he talked about the fact it is getting harder and harder to have any broad assumption where the market is headed. A lot of analysts have been head fake by a lot of different cycles that are overlapping and prolonging this recovery. Annmarie Jonathan Mike wilson will catch up with us tomorrow morning. That follows Deutsche Bank lifting the 2024 forecast. Looking for 5500 year end. Annmarie i think the biggest data point we will get this week that will decide the direction in the short term is going to be nvidia. Going back to Morgan Stanley, macro outcomes have been in, increasingly difficult to predict as data has become more volatile. That is the theme on the show. Everyone is finding it difficult to say where we are in this cycle and where we are going. Jonathan you mentioned the data point of the week is nvidia. The Second Division from u. S. Data is the quote from kitt jukes, existing home sales, durable goods, secondtier data. We are light on fed speak. All in the next 24 hours. Looking forward to some of this. Lisa over this week we have williams as well as a host of others from the ecb. Chris wallace might be the most interesting because he will be talking about the longterm idea of inflation. That is where they have to go. Right now they are talking about data dependency. This has become a confusing moment that mike wilson has been grappling with. Jonathan they seem reluctant to talk about what normal is. Hopefully they entertain that idea. Here the scores on the s p 500. Positive. 1 . Yields unchanged. In foreignexchange, 1. 0 870 into a week full of secondtier data. Lisa secondtier data and secondtier Central Banks. The ecb speak will come out and we talk about what is going on with the euro and the idea of the ecb pushing back expectations. Wednesday is the big day because we get fit meeting minutes. We get 20 year bonds being auctioned off. Nvidia, i want to put this stat out, 12 months ago nvidias share price climbed 20 on the result. Since that day it has tripled in value. This is a stock that can change the dynamic. To meet wednesday will be the key moment in nvidia can be a much bigger driver. Jonathan jim reed of Deutsche Bank said the same thing. Coming up well catch up with steve chevron of federated. Terry haines on the death of irans president and abigail watt of ubs. Equities building. Steve chevron saying the word is fine. Economic data has come in slower but find, inflation is stick here and higher but find, it all combines to keep our base Case Scenario and play. An economy that remain stable and rate cuts that eventually come. Everything is fine, is that a good thing . Steve you have a wall street that is waiting for something to break hard in one direction and everything is fine. Inflation is grinding slowly lower and growth is also softening. It is fine. It is a fine environment for bonds, for cash, a fine environment for stocks. Jonathan is it fine that you have a lot of company . Steve that makes us nervous. When we came out with a 5200 target for this year that was the high on the street and it is not anymore. You start to ask yourself a question. Will any of these things break harder than you expect . Will growth slow more than you think . I hate to say it but right now it is fine. It is moving in the direction accepted. Lisa things are not fine for red lobster. Things are not fine for a number of companies that are struggling with higher costs, fixed leases, the idea of labor that has going on. Is everything fine at the index level but does it justify expanding into last loved areas or do you stay with that just fine along with everyone else consensus . Steve Quality Matters because you have rates that are higher for longer. That will put pressure on weaker credit and weaker companies. Slowing growth does the same. You see the same thing on the low end of the consumer. It is fine at an aggregate level but there is pressure the weakest players will have a harder time with standing. As an investor you have to make sure you are buying quality, higherquality credit, better Balance Sheets, better cash flows. There will be weakness and volatility. Lisa are you just looking at portfolios in saying that is fine and checking out . Steve no. What we are doing is questioning ourselves. Because so many people have moved to a bullish positioning and it is less lonely up here, we are questioning the assumptions. When you look at the retail sales number last week, is that softer is that a sign of real consumer stress . Credit spreads, we are watching those on a weekly basis. Two or three weeks ago they look like they were moving higher but they have gone back down. We are constantly questioning these assumptions. Nothing is violating it. What we are in is an old normal expansion where it is higher rates, higher growth, higher inflation. That is enough for equity markets to grind higher. Annmarie one or two cuts this year or maintain . Steve we are more towards the one. Certainly the retail sales number and the jobs number puts two back and play. Generally speaking we think it is one or two. I think the gulf between one or zero is huge. The market will start to price in the cycle. Annmarie what is the data you need to see to put two before the election in place . Steve it is labor market. June is probably not in play. That leaves july. I have to imagine they would like to avoid september, november if they can. The idea of july or december, but certainly december. Jonathan lets go through some quotes on the sales side. This bigger and not tighter economy allows the fed to start cutting rates in september. What you make of that quote . The baker and not tighter economy allows the fed to start cutting rates in september. You share that view of the way the economy is performing . Steve you have to be careful with inflation. Once you get past june or july the yearoveryear comps get difficult. We are still running about 4 annually. Three is top. Jonathan is why inflation will come down. Peter tchir, if inflation continues to come down it will likely be tied to a weakening economy which should be good for bonds but not so good for stocks. It is working out why inflation will come down from 2 towards that 3 . Lisa people are thinking how much will we see or are we still looking at lag effects from the pandemic . What i find interesting, and bank of america really went through this, this idea of a very loose fiscal policy with a restrictive Monetary Policy. If you have fiscal policy that starts to lighten that starts to tighten, then what happens with Monetary Policy and does that ignite weakness . This goes to the heart of the uncertainty of the moment is we do not understand the crosswinds of policies that are on on that are at odds with one another. Jonathan final word on that . Steve i think thats right. You have a former fed chair running a Monetary Policy that is very different than the current fed chair. We might want to think about getting the same thing for having the fed chair run treasury. You have competing monetary policies coming out of there. I think the stimulus you have seen has boosted small business, the consumer, the inflation impulse, and is why so many people looking at this from a macro perspective have had a tough time over the last months. Jonathan you have some company. It is great to see you. Equities at the moment just about positive. 1 on the s p 500. With news elsewhere, here is your bloomberg brief with dani burger. Dani President Biden came facetoface with campus protests this weekend. The president gave a campus speech at the historically black Morehouse College and said he is working aroundtheclock to get more humanitarian aid into gaza. Students and at least two faculty members showed solidarity with the palestinians. Recent polling showed significant numbers of young and black voters disapprove President Biden support for israel. Nippon steel is gearing up for its takeover of u. S. Steel, going to pittsburgh this week to meet with global staff and elected officials and is sending technical teams to review u. S. Steel mills, hoping to find ways to boost investment and labor commissions to went over Union Leaders. To win over Union Leaders. A birdie on the final hole was enough for zander shop late to clinch his golf title. He finished with a record 21 underpar. After being arrested before play on friday Scottie Scheffler finished in a tie for eighth. Jonathan congratulations. A fantastic performance from start to finish for the weekend. Coming up, i rans president killed in a Helicopter Crash. A shocking event in one of the most important countries in the region but the immediate geopolitical implications may be quite limited, assuming iran does not blame outside countries or forces for this. Jonathan the latest out of the region coming up next. Live from york city, good morning. So, what are you thinking . Im thinking. speaking to self about our honeymoon. What about africa . Safari . Hot air balloon ride . Swim with elephants . Wait, can we afford a safari . Great question. Like everything, it takes a little planning. Or, put the money towards a downpayment. On a ranch. In montana. With horses lets take a look at those scenarios. J. P. Morgan Wealth Management has advisors in chase branches and tools, like wealth plan to keep you on track. When youre planning for it all. The answer is j. P. Morgan Wealth Management. Jonathan live from new york city come equity futures on the s p 500 positive. 1 . Just about unchanged on the 10 year. In the commodity market down half of 1 . Irans president killed in a Helicopter Crash. A shocking event in one of the most important countries in the region but the immediate geopolitical implications may be quite limited, assuming iran does not blame outside countries or forces for this death. There on lengthy to significantly they are unlikely to significantly change irans foreign parsley but it is irans Foreign Policy but it is early days in terms of the blame game. Jonathan irans News Agencies have confirmed the president and foreign minister have died in a Helicopter Crash. The chopper went down on sunday in an area covered with dense fog. Bloombergs africa and middle east anchor joins us for now. Talk to us about the latest coming out of the country. It took us a while to get full details of what happened. Late in the evening Iranian State tb confirmed the president had been involved in a quote unquote hard landing situation. It took a while for rescuers to reach the site of the clan the site of the crash. Only after 6 00 this morning did they get access to the site. Only then did they confirm the president and the foreign minister were two of the nine passengers on the helicopter. All of them died in the crash. Shortly afterwards five days of mourning were declared in the country. What is happening in terms of who takes over, the Vice President will take over tentatively as a transitional president , but as for the procedure, the country needs to hold another round of president ial elections within 50 days. It should be stressed that ultimately the Decision Maker the country, the ultimate power still lies with the Supreme Leader. He was quick to put out a statement saying there will be no disruption in the countrys affairs, even if it is confirmed the president had died. It did emerge the president was killed in a helicopter attack. It was a shocking sequence of event for the country, but the messaging from the Supreme Leader is it is business as usual. The public may see it differently because the backdrop is iran is undergoing a deep economic shock, inflation running closer to 35 , and they are being weighed down by the sanctions id to the country right now. Annmarie when it comes to the Supreme Leader and the ayatollah, he was an official that would be a top contender. Where does it leave that succession because the ayatollah is 85 years old . Joumanna that is the question. The pathway to becoming the Supreme Leader is becoming president. The assumption from the outside world is the president was on that pathway. He was seen as being close to the ayatollah. He was seen as a conduit for many of the conservative fundamentalist policies the ayatollah wanted to apply. It leaves one person in mind, the ayatollahs son as potentially the next person who could take over. It comes down to what the clerics within the Iranian Guardian Council want to happen. This raises questions about the upcoming president ial elections in which of the candidates will be vetted by the Guardian Council in order to run for president ial elections. In 2021 there were no other people who were allowed to run against him. The turnout was low. Only 50 . Who they decide to run as candidates could be a reflection of how they are thinking about a potential successor to the Supreme Leader. Jonathan appreciate the update on the latest in the region. Terry haines joins us now. Lets talk about your reaction to what took place over the weekend. Terry in addition to what she already said i would add only that geopolitical risk is elevated further by these deaths. But that the impact could be quite limited because in the iranian system what matters the most is the Supreme Leader first, and secondly the proxies are generally run by the irgc and not directly by the president. In terms of irans outer facing activities, i would expect that to be virtually unaffected. Lisa there is a question of can you walk and chew gum at the same time for a number of countries in a very fraught region given the fact you will be trying to come up with a new president and potentially hold elections in 50 days in iran at the same time there is huge dissent in israel given what is going on with the war plan or lack thereof. How do you see this wrinkle as affecting what is going on right now and the tensions between iranian backed groups and israel . Terry it will make iran double down on its own stance for the next couple of months. You point out the 50 day bogie in terms of a new election is very important. They will go out of their way to show that it is basically business as usual. At the same time you have a crisis in israels government. Many senior figures in the government and the effective deputy saying they need to see something from the government sooner rather than later by early june about a plan to deal with gaza postwar. You are looking at a situation where for the next very few weeks the puzzle pieces are thrown up in the air more than they normally are. Annmarie we see this administration have to spend a lot more time in the middle east than they plan to coming in. We have Jake Sullivan in saudi arabia and israel over the weekend. Any signals from those trips they are closer to striking a Defense Security pact between saudi arabia and the United States or even normalization with israel . Terry the fact they are over there a lot says positive things about the possibility of that. It is very much in the administrations interest to want to put that together. Benjamin netanyahu thought, the saudis thought, even before the war started, that they were down the track on this. I expect them to redouble their efforts. The physical presence of the United States officials makes that clear. It is very much in the United States interest to make sure that happens. Annmarie your note over the weekend is talking about the election and debates coming up. With Foreign Policy continuing to be top of the headlines every single day, how much will the debates focus on that and who do you think the voters give her credit to when it comes to Foreign Affairs . Terry i think the debates will feature Foreign Policy rather more than most people expect. The buzz in washington is domestic issues take over. That is very much on top of voters minds. At the same time, one of bidens top pitches is he is working hard to create a safer world. One of trumps top pitches is that bidens actions have contributed to making the world more dangerous. I would expect it to be a bigger piece of the debate that most people do. Jonathan can we finish on your base case in november and whether your confidence levels have gotten greater or worse . Terry my base case remains that the president is reelected, barely. What we end up with is a split congress. That means continued not attention to debt and deficits but a largely unified Foreign Policy. That said, my faith and that gets a little bit narrower most days. Jonathan why is that . Terry too many issues. A lot of it is beyond the white house control. At the same time, the fundamental issue to this election is not any of those issues. It is whether the president has still got it, whether or not the cognitive issues are real or not. He will have to demonstrate that and continue to demonstrate that. What the attorney general did last week in taking a nonprivileged conversation in trying to assert executive privilege shows you how sensitive the white house is to that and it can validate it. Jonathan hyper