Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20240622 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box June 22, 2024

Meeting but it does seem hike this really is. He should have said really twice. Or at least three times maybe. This is it. Really really. This is like whackamole. Markets that go down they find a way and its a lot of times not what youre focussing on. Did you think once again well be 8 down . They have a plunge Protection Team like us but its not working at this point. Down 40 the market is over there in three weeks or four weeks. Still up 10 on the year. And 70 in the last 12 months. Its like the wild west. We shouldnt extrapolate everything over here from whats happening over there. But 180 points here or 8 there, maybe thats commensurate. Well wall street journal today, stocks plunged scarier than greece and thats written by the head of emerging markets and global macro at global stanley investment management. They make the point which is hotly debated in the market to what extent does the market crash in china have a Ripple Effect on the chinese economy and that has a Ripple Effect on the global economy. People are divided on the real impact of the crash of the economy. Theres a stock market down 8 and then it becomes does this mean that this debt riddled economy over there is not going to grow enough to support or carrie carry its weight in helping it grow. Theyre trying to come in and put in place all of these measures to sure up confidence and its having the opposite effect and is it making things worse over there. Overnight more than 40 of chinese stocks were halted. Not trading. But if its up you know in the last 18 months, a ridiculous number. If it comes down and retracing that does it indicate the underlying growth story in china. Is it the market letting off steam. I think i heard this morning 15 , only 15 of Household Wealth in china is actually invested in the stock market. So the numbers arent nearly as large as they are in more developed countries such as the United States. So thats lessening the fears but its a good debate as were looking now at the numbers. Well the spill over effect you see it in the commodities. Talk about the growth story. Our markets recovered here yesterday after oil started showing. That was quite a turn around. The dow was down more than 200 points at one point. A lot of the commentary last night was is this a key reversal . It will mean the market has bottomed. Lets check out the rest of the major markets this morning. Here are the futures this morning. Here down 175. Thats ugly. Especially at the start of the day but who knows by the end of the session. It was down 185, 190 earlier. Lets see how europe is handling this sell off over in asia. Thats interesting, isnt it . Thats piggy backing off our recovery yesterday. But everything looks good there. I dont know what happened in greece. I dont know what happens by sunday. Did you see them going back to 1950 to say that i think hes looking post world war to germany and reconstruction and not repaying some of its debt so hes not very happy with the germans. Hes saying the germans dont repay. Can you go back to a post world war ii era . As far as you have to. Its just weird. Hes not the only one. Theyre all coming out. Antiausterity and pro no greek referendum vote. He says someone has to pick up the check. What a concept. Anyway lets i mean the whole i look at that and its did you see the guy, Larry Odonnell on our sister channel that says were all socialists now. Its like speak for yourself. Im not a socialist. Bernie sanders just because hes getting 10,000 people to rally doesnt mean all of a sudden i think this is the beginning of the swing. We have gone so far over. Even for an indiandiot to say that are you a socialist . No. In anyway shape, or form do you have a hair on your head thats socialist . No. Thank you. Lets head to china for more on the sell off there. Eunice joins us live from beijing. Even youre not a socialist. No. But there are a lot of socialists here but you wouldnt really know it by the amount of people jumping into the stock market but in terms of what youre talking about a lot of developments. The china regulator warned about panic sentiment and irrational selling today and we saw plenty of both. The mood was fearful and very, very dark. People were very concerned. Emotions were running high and a lot of the focus was on the mass trading halt youre talking about. With with what the Chinese Media here described as the biggest in chinas stock market history. More than 50 of all the listed company here now have had their shares suspended and aus austensivley its having the opposite effect. Very negative. A lot of investor versus been selling whatever they can. The anger at the brokerage was directed mainly at the government. We had one investor who was complaining that the government was the one that got them into this whole mess. He said that they were encouraging this buying and now theyre saying that you know we dont really what we have done is fall into this abyss. That gets to the heart of one of the points brought up earlier and thats that the government is really worried that the stock market issue will be a social stability problem and it really explains the behavior and why theyre throwing everything including the kitchen sink at this problem. All right, eunice thank you. We need you. Stay with us. Because suddenly were all, you know, focused on greece and i called it whackamole but scott made a point maybe greece is helping a little because if it wasnt greece, if we didnt have that to share the fear, we would be hyping this china thing like it would be going to end of the world. Maybe its helping a little. Well be back to you. Doesnt need a whole lot of hyping. Not with numbers like that. Anyway, thank you. All right. With that we do move to greece because there is news the can that keeps getting kicked down the road. Now sunday is said to be the final deadline. Jeff is monitoring the negotiations out of brussels and michelle in athens. Jeff, lets begin with you as we look ahead toward sunday. The good news is that the ecb said it will continue to maintain liquidity for the greek Banking System until we get to that summit on sunday and it does seem to be a conversation taking place between the greeks and euro zone leaders but thats where the good news stops and i would say that its still very very early to try to call the outcome of this sunday meeting and the sucker punch, Alexis Tsipras standing up in the European Parliament this morning and criticizing the previous Bailout Programs and effectively saying the whole policy of fiscal austerity has failed in europe. Lets just listen in to what he said. The Bailout Program have not made things better. On the contrary they have made things worse. They were supposed to bring about reforms but those reforms have not improved the tax collecting mechanisms which collapsed under the excessive zeal of enlightened and, indeed terrified national officials. Well does that sound like a man who wants compromise . Does that sound like a man who is putting forward fresh proposals here which the euro zone leadership can work with. Not particularly it seems to me and Angela Merkel coming out of that leaders meeting yesterday said she felt there were no fresh greek proposals on the table so far and also made the point that they need to go further with the structural reform. Ie the fiscal austerity if theyre goodbyes to get a new program. Now we understand that the greeks have applied for emergency funding support through the mechanism known as the esm. Sits european stability mechanism. This might help give them a shortterm loan which might help them pay their ecb debt due on the 20th of july. That will be under consideration now by euro zone finance ministers. Let me move the story on and take you to athens and michelle. Thank you jeff. I know theres a lot of skepticism about sunday being the final deal but thats certainly how the greeks feel. Let me show you the headline which is is euro on drachma on sunday. When you talk to individuals i would say its near panic. This is the beginning of the end. The toalty on radio and television as well and they are broadcasting the European Parliament across the country right now. The thing that jeff ruz referring to. The thing going on at the moment. Listening to whats going on thats not being translated into greek and all greexks woke up to this morning was the following sound bites from the meeting which sounded incredibly harsh. Im strongly rejecting all of these accusations which were thoen to the thrown to the public. That we dont respect the greek people and that were terrorists. Who are they and who do they think i am . Until now i have avoided talking about deadlines but have to say it that the final deadline ends this week. When you look at the video warmly embraced by all the leftist in the crowd and also being lectured by a representative that says let me make this clear to you. Youre asking a nurse to fit the bill for the greeks. The skeptics and Parliament Standing up and saying we think the referendum was a great idea. Now that you have your answer and a very tough situation. A lot of people believe that finally sunday its the day where the ecb just might cut them off. Yeah you know people vote with their feet sometimes. Goes in there and everybody is waiting and theyre all waiting and they say what do you have . Today its hike a guy that didnt do his homework. He showed up in class after this was 90 of your grade is going to be the homework you did and had nothing to show as the new guy and i read one guy said theres 18 of us here that seem to understand the seriousness of the situation and theres one thats in lala land. So understand why the euro why the eu should take anything seriously at this point. I think this is part of the strategy to drag this out to the bitter end so that way the europeans will blink and come up with shortterm money like jeff was talking about. Maybe from the European Investment bank. But everybody winks and nods and shoves a little money greeces way. That way they can pay in july and august and get back to this in september but germany is standing very very tough against any kind of shortterm deal which was being pushed by france. Remember france right now run by socialists as well. Do you think theyre now working on something . I mean i miss at least something that has a plan even if its a bad plan. Its better than clueless isnt it . They are working on another letter. They have received a new letter. Every single time they have submitted something new it has fallen short of anything that anyone on the other side of the table was expecting. Michelle thanks. Well go to the other. Chinese markets falling sharply. Our next guest calls the shanghai composite one of the least correlated industries in the world and that investors as a result shouldnt attach too much weight to it. We agree with that and i guess 180 points versus 8 . But any stock market in the world that goes down a lot, remember, he worried about cyprus and iceland. It just sort of breeds uncertainty in an unsettled feel feeling. Up until last night we saw some spreading into the hang seng last night which is heavily financial waited. Thats part of the explanation for that button way up china had no correlation to the chinese economy or the rest of the world. On the way down its hard to say this is going to have a negative impact on the u. S. Market. The u. S. Economy is tied to the chinese economy but if youre outside of china you cant have exposure to that market. Its a suspended reality. Is there a gambling component to this market . . The Chinese Market . Is this investing happening in china or an element of lets roll the dice this thing is up so much a lot of people got in as it was moving higher. Its a casino mentality. What is that. Last month eunice did a great story on the Chinese Market and how you see Rural Farmers investing into the chinese stock market and turning 30 into 30,000. That scenario doesnt last. We saw that in 2000. Theres no impact whatsoever to the market crash and the economy in china . And the Ripple Effects globally as a result of that. Think about it on the way up. Was the chinese economy booming when the hang shy composite was doubling last year . Its hard to say. Will there be knock on effects . There may be some knock on effects but the chinese stock market wasnt reflective on the economy at all in the last two years so right now i dont think the decline in the shanghai is saying something is collapsing. What about earnings . Were going into earnings after the bell. That was the worry with your office that u. S. Companies have exposure to the weakness. So yeah u. S. Companies and multdy and multinationals have advice going into the china. So much going on outside of the United States, no one knows whats going to happen in greece. If they try to tell you, ignore them. The fact is the u. S. Economy is plotting along here. Weve seen slow growth but at least were seeing growth and the housing and employment have been very strong or relatively speaking in the u. S. And 17 straight weeks below 300,000 in claims and we think investors if we stick to the u. S. Especially coming into the earnings season stocks with the u. S. Exposure youll see out performance. Stocks with u. S. Exposure and the s p 500 are out performing. Half revenues outside of the u. S. By 250 basis points in the last two weeks alone. You dont believe these guys . This is much worse than greece . The chinese economy is one thing. The stock market though. So the stock market chinese stock market is not correlated to other World Markets and its not correlated to the chinese economy . Its a low correlation. What about the underlying chinese economy . Again as i was saying earlier it was not on the fire in the last year in the shanghai composite. The debt situation is a much bigger market. If that starts getting really shaky that would be something to be concerned about. That would be something to be concerned about and in europe were looking at greece. Greece has little connection to the u. S. Look at potential contagion effects, right now we have seen spreads widen a bit but the market doesnt seem to be anticipating a major escalation or deterioration in the Financial Markets of europe. Thats what the market obstetricalingis telling us right now. Its hard to imagine that wiping it out in the matter of weeks as this points out. That 3 trillion came this year. But ten times the Trading Volume over there. Move them over. Thank you. Coming up volatility. The word of the week in the oil market, one traders take still ahead. But first as we head to break, heres a look back at this date in history. I like your place. Oh, thank you, make yourself at home ill be right back. Hm. Shes got x1. Alright. Huh, hm, ohh. Monster . She seemed so nice at dinner. Im back ahh uhh. Whatcha doing . Ohh, just. Watchin law order. Awww, youre nervous. Thats so cute. Call and upgrade to get x1 today. Welcome back to squawk box. Lets talk some oil now. Many major factors over the market now. The greek debt crisis Iran Nuclear Talks just to name a few. John is a cnbc analyst. It was written weird in there. Im here. Thank you. What is the Biggest Issue effecting oil . Its down 10 in the last couple of days . Theres a lot of elements lining up here over the past several weeks if you will. We were trapped between 58 and 62. Finally tipped over for me last month when you saw iraqs output surge over 4 Million Barrels a day and from there its been downhill because of the things that you mentioned and the chinese situation is particularly concerning for the oil market because if the Ripple Effects are for their company is to slow down they are a swing demand center of the market. Theyre the demand story. If they take any kind of hit. I thought they were the swing producer now. Arguably but i put my money on saudi arabia. Theyre producing over 10 Million Barrels a day. They could support this market. We just had a guest in that chair say theres zero correlation between the stock market in china and the economy in china. Is the oil market overdoing it thinking theres going to be a Ripple Effect . They need the economy to be hit on all cylinders. Their gdp growth is coming down coming down. I dont know. I hope paul is right but this has to look from a casual reserver as a replay of our 1929 observation because so many folks are here to mention the story about how rural population of folks got cut heavy in that market. Theres talks about potential civil unrest if they lose all of their money. Youll see another migration of rural to urban that the system cant handle. So that would be bad for the economy. Those that thought that oil was going to go up got to 60 people get a little optimistic wonder wond wondering whether Energy Equities were going to have a nice little run. Everybody had a second and third chance to get back in. Right. I think theyll have a fourth. Were going to go down again. Despite the rig count being slashed in half production isnt going down. As a matter of fact the eia raised the u. S. Growth output for this year by about 30,000 barrels to 750 just for this year. So its still not going down and theres also a new term well be hearing about more and more. Its called refracturization where theyre able to go back to some of these wells that had deleted or their output had come down and they had come up with new technology again these guys to be able to extract more oil and its looking like the life of these that were look to be around 2 to five years could go as long as a decade. Good to see you. Same here. Goldman just put out a bearish note. They just released a commodities note. Cutting the target. Theyre bearish. Cutting them off from 300 to 290. Theyre sticking with the 45 call by october. They had the super spike was 250. The different guy now. Now theyre focused on the three ds. Theyre clever. I dont have that. Getting clever. 30 years ago it was dupont dow anyway, coming up barclays axing its ceo this morning after just three years on the job. The bank says new blood is needed. Well hear from barclays chairman up

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