Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20240622 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Fast Money June 22, 2024

Ugly off 8 1 2 . Is the selling fully chinarelated here in the u. S. Or ocould there be something else, something bigger and deeper perhaps, guy . Lets start with you. Tim talking about china, i think it has a lot to do with china. When the markets down 8 on top of the moves weve seen over the last couple of months it has to have something to do with that but i also think its somewhat technical in nature. I think earnings have a lot to do with it. I think earnings have been okay but i think the chasm between eps and revenue continues to grow. I think technically the markets done everything right until last week when we traded back up, tested you willtime highs, seemingly failed, had an outside week in the s p without getting too wonky, now were going to test again those lows we saw last week or so, 2042. If it holds there, off to the races. If it fails we have to have another conversation quickly. The russell, the iwm, 121 has been the level, closed lower today for the first time in a long time. Was china the excuse to well, welcome, sara eisen. I dont know that its necessarily the excuse today. It clearly is a big part of what people walked into. If you look at the volatility index, pete can talk about that, were kind of at levels weve seen in three months. Thats in a place where you then trade higher but people are imputing Commodity Prices upon the Global Growth story. I dont believe that price is truth, especially when you talk about oil. Oil demands still going to be up 1 1 2 Million Barrels a year. Copper is being priced as if this isnt probably the one commodity thats the most supplydemand imbalance. So copper as guy said china as guy said, you cant come in and see this kind of a move in a major indice when also the peoples bank of china has indicated theyre there to defend it and then the whisper last night was they were stepping away from their own market. Thats unsettling when policy makers look like theyre panicking markets start to payne. Thats been the whole worry throughout this china selloff. Unclear, karen, what the trigger really was for the china move overnight. But how much do you think its affecting u. S. . I do think its affecting us. Theres a few parts to it. Theres the movement in the indices, which those are very big moves. Obviously had a huge move up and a huge move down. Then the other part of it is whats happening in the underlying economy . And those may be two totally separate issues yet both are scary because i do think a lot of data shows the underlying economy theyre slowing. So you know, im somewhat concerned. We are long biased. And i stay long biased. But im concerned. Pete . You know, when im looking at the volatility index it really does say something. When you just go back a week ago the 22nd we were trading at 1205 and here we are today now trading and we actually got over 16, were over the 50day, over the 200day. It says a lot about the zmim sentiment. Were not just talking about a move in china. 8 1 2 move, 7 move. These are moves to the down side that are massive, significant beyond words. The fact that not only the commodities but the rest of us are following along makes a little bit of sense to me. Actually its pretty impressive. You look at the spider sitting on the 200day moving average, financials, health care. Those have been the areas in this earnings season that have been absolutely those that have been leading the way. You look at citi and jpmorgan and Morgan Stanley all those names, you go through the health care names as well, theyre both signature on the 50day moving average. Theyve pulled back as well. I think were sitting on an area that really is something where you ought to be concerned, you should have been buying protection. Weve been pounding the table thats kind of it, where have you been. Theres nothing here that hasnt been going on for months. And if you remove the m a activity in biotech and in pharma and in health care and then certain parts of the tech world you really dont have a lot of reasons why even those places that are showing leadership should be. The financial selloff to me is the biggest concern because this is the place where i think people are able to one price in better earnings power. Multiples were the most attractive within the snch s p. And a yield curve that was rising. And look where the tenyear is now, breaking down and bond yields telling us something as well. Dont you think that was the move . 100 . The dollar weaker everything is at a critical low from the russell to the tnt. The tenyear, 2 1 4 as we went back higher in rates was resistance. It blew through, went to 2 1 2. What was resistance becomes support. At 2 1 4. Now were back through it. I still think yields go lower. I think tim and i would disagree as to the reasons why. I think its deflationary in nature. With that said i dont think it augurs anything particularly well going forward. Getting some deflationary signals in commodities. Well give you that. Speak of the market selloff the s p 500 briefly dipped below its key 200day moving average. Is this a signal for more pain ahead for stocks . Carter worth is cornerstone macros head of technical analysis. Hes checking the charts at the smartboard. What do they show, carter . Sara, thank you. Three things i want to look at. Just the chart of the market itself. All the moving average is is an automated trend line. Meaning obviously the markets been ascending and of course our moving averages are ascending. Ive got both the 150day, which has a higher hit rate in back tests and the 200. You can use whatever youd like. But we see quite clearly the purple line being 150, that it seems to be the closest one in terms of measuring trend. And what we know is that despite the ebola swoon when both didnt help us weve tracked the 100day quite closely but the very issue of trend is now in question. Essentially these lines are flat. Were basically not in an up trend anymore, but internally its really worse than this. So two pictures i would show you. Just a week ago we were within one point of making a new, yet new alltime high in the s p. And yet the total number of stocks making new 52week lows is surging. And then made again a surge last week. So we were within a fraction of a sixyear high, alltime high, and yet new lows exploding. Thats not a good internal argument for the market. And then i think this is maybe the most telling chart of all. A twopanel chart. The top is the s p, the up trend that is or isnt in question. But the bottom panel is back in the locker room, meaning this is the scoreboard on top. This is a bit like the cavaliers, lebron james. This bottom panel shows the number of players on the team, the number of stocks in the s p that themselves are in up trends. As the market has made new highs for 13 months, each new high has been achieved with a lower percentage of stocks themselves still in up trends. So what we have is again a few big names carrying the team. And now were starting to lose them. Apples in question, certain biotech are in question. So if you lose your leadership and your weakest players get weaker, energy, materials, industrials, who puts up points for the team . Thats the problem. Yep. Certainly a concern. Thank you very much. Carter worth. Lets trade these comments, pete. Clearly breadth is more and more of an issue. We were talking about volatility. The one thing i would focus on right now, i look at these financials. We talk about where was the leadership coming from, health care and financials. I look at the financials individually. George, citi, you look at these names, Morgan Stanley, theyre all trading with implied volatility thats below historic. I know the volatility itself for this s p 500 is higher, we were just talking about that. These are trading extremely low. The news is out. Because of the fact theyve already reported earnings. If you want to play these names i look at jpmorgan around 68 right around the moving average. I think thats the way you play it. Through the options, not through the stock right now. Guy, i kept sthig of the fang, which is the jim cramer term for facebook, amazon, netfl netflix, google, these big cap tech stocks that are driving the major averages and Everything Else isnt catching up p. And facebook were going to hear from. I still think facebook blows through 100. We traded closer last week. Let me push back in terms of the financials. Theres one financial weve loved across the desk for a while that is not participating and today had a really lousy morning, came back late and its been blackstone. You wonder whats going on at bx that the stock seems to or people that are trading the stock seem to see that the rest of us dont. Has not traded well now for months. Im wondering if blackstone is trying to tell us something about the financials going forward. My guess on blackstone might be pressure on fees for this model. I dont know. Because theyve done an extraordinary job no doubt. Theyve got a cfo going over thats the other thing. Real quick, thats interesting when the cfo, the heir apparent to blackstone rung the whole place leaves to go work for air bnb, a lot of interesting things going on there. Theres a lot from wall street Tech Companies reporting. Finally to you, carter worth. Do you have anything to say about the financials moves . Weve had some leadership beyond just tech and apple and others. Of course financials has been one. Health care in general and certain consumer. But just as implied in your conversation, were losing a little bit of steam in financials as well. Each day some of the things weve counted on are starting to falter. Enough of that and you just dont have the energy to move higher. Thanks very much. Well leave the conversation there. Thanks to everyone. Up next, stocks sold off hard today, but there was one big cap tech stock that actually held on to its gains despite the downturn. Well tell you what name it is and whether you should be buying it now. Plus teva out with a huge deal for allergan, and meg tirrell is here with a very special report on the biotech name that could be ripe for the next round of takeovers. Well see if theres any left. Shes naming names. And later, could the Magic Kingdom be on the verge of getting a little more magical . The comments disney ceo bob iger made about disney maybe looking to buy more. Were talking acquisitions. Who should he buy next . Much more ahead on fast. Earnings alert on baidu just out with its earnings. Josh lipton in San Francisco with the details. Sara, when it comes to baidu market pros ask are investors willing to stick around and see if all that spending the company is doing pays off . Not if the action after those latest Earnings Report is any indication. Baidu had already been under real pressure heading into this print. The stock, the chinese search giant down more than 13 so far this year. Now its down a lot harder. At least part of the worry, all the spending baidu does on mobile and offline services. Remember, baidu allows users to both search and buy items such as movie tickets. Its one way the company tries to differentiate itself from rivals, but that spending can also pressure results. Baidu just reported q2 earnings per share that beat but revenue just in line. Expenses rose sharply, surge 81 year over year. And that was mostly because of promoting those same offline services. Turning to q3, baidu guided for Third Quarter revenue that ways bit light relative to expectations. On the Conference Call expect questions about the outlook for spending, mobile monetization, how those nonsearch businesses are doing, such as baidus travel and video sites. Sara, back to you. Thank you for running us through that report, josh lipton in San Francisco. Tim, brutal afternoon. Youre long this stock. Im long the stock. And ive been long the stock for about a year and a half. Ive trade add round a bit. Ive got an average cost around 160. What id say about the 180 level, very important level, and somewhere just below here i would maybe take some chips off the table because nothing has changed on the story here but i do think that the stock is stuck in this gear. Its a show me stock. Having said all, that i think this is a very, very, very good company and a very good valuation at 28, 29 times. Theyre stim growing about 40 . Everybody know sg a was going to go higher. Theres no big surprise here. They have to invest in their future. They are dominant. If china wasnt selling off this wouldnt be a move. But again if you look to today as the close its a 20 move on the stock. A 10 move ultimately that we had today. Im not jumping out the window today. Nothing has changed. Its sort of a double whammy right now because theyve got the macro concerns where everything china sells off and the margin problems here. Right. And i think the one thing id ask tim is does it concern you that theyve broken through . They were at the 200day and now the 50day. Now well beneath that. And you almost wonder is this a time to maybe take the chips off the table and come back another time. Thats why i brought it up, because to me the level 180s the level where i could take a few chips off the table. I think you should have some stop levels, especially if you think the stock trades as technically as this one does. 205, then 200. Now 180. Break of 180 be concerned. Gene munster likes it of Piper Jaffray for what its worth. A rough day for the social stocks. That kicks off our top trades tonight. The entire Group Feeling the pain. Facebook and twitter ending lower by more than 2 . Both Companies Reporting earnings this week. Guy, weve got twitter tomorrow, facebook wednesday. And linkedin on thursday i believe. Lets go in order. Twitter tomorrow, 35 has been the line in the sand. Yeah, i know it closed below there today but basically right in line with 35 bucks. Everybody is expecting a disaster which theyll probably get. But if its not a complete disaster i do think you can see a relief rally in this name. I think you stay long it against 35. Facebook is actually sold off since that 99 and change high we saw a couple weeks ago or last week. I still think facebook, the metrics of facebook, the last six quarters have been unbelievable. Their move to mobile outstanding. That goes higher. And linkedin their valuation is ridiculous, i dont think it can be replicated. Some people upgraded the stock. 250 price target. Gun to my head id rather be long the stock here. These are going in totally Different Directions this year. Couple things to look for tomorrow this year is the ceo search situation. I dont know if well get any update there. And then i dont know if well get any comment on whether or not theyve been approached by anyone. Thats something thats obviously been thought about a lot. Is jack dorsey just here as an intern while they look to sell it. But i think, though, if the numbers are bad enough it will trade down. Beyond what you think might be the floor. Wouldnt this be a good quarter for them to just throw a kitchen sink kind of quarter . Yes. Actually it would be. And maybe theyll do that. If youre listening its a good time. Mark everything down. Facebook i think it would be great. Although as guy said its had such a run on nothing its hard when the bar gets raised so high as you go into earnings. Next up green mountain. Big day, big name, and a big gain for this one on the back of a call from Goldman Sachs late friday reiterating its buy rating on the stock saying that the stock at its current price offers compelling buying opportunities for its investors. We should note since the start of 2015 this stock is down more than 45 . Tim, you and i have talked a lot about this. Id probably be talking im not long and i probably talked about being very constructive on the stock at 125 and maybe even around 90. There are some key levels on the stock. What goldman is saying is the risk reward, if you look at the total value of this stock, is around 60 bucks. Worst Case Scenario coal does nothing. The installed base grows at zero percent and the margins get worse. This is where the bears are lining up. I say cold is and this is their ability to sell the cold drinks and also combine the hot stuff. The coke partnership to me i think is a big driver for this name. I think they have to increase their stake. I think coke needs to be in this space. And i think its an exciting time. I think there are catalysts for the stock. The valuation they trade at the low end in even staples right now. And i think its gottone a place where the thing and this is what goldmans saying. Theyre saying this stock is cheap on a they use asymmetric up side risk which is analyst talk for very cheap, right . I think the concern is its very cheap but can it get any cheaper . Without cocacola getting more involved i think this name is just death right now. Is it cheap enough for coke to buy outright . These the one potential do they need to . I think cocacolas done a nice job of getting themselves in all kinds of other areas. I dont know if necessarily this is one of the areas where they see as much growth as they do in Energy Drinks and milk and Everything Else what theyve been investing in. But ill tell you what, implied volatilities are through the roof. This is not one of those if youre going to buy the stock use this as an opportunity to sell some calls up above against it, turn it into a buy rate. At least it cushions the down side. They have had some missteps. Coming up tevas 40 billion deal with allergan, is this just the beginning of a huge onslaught of m a activity in the biotech space . Meg tirrells going to be naming names for us next. And while we wait for that heres what else is coming up on fast. Announcer that pretty much sums up china. And well tell you which mega cap tech name could soon feel the pain. Plus, is disney on the hunt for acquisitions . Well tell you what disney boss bob iger said about the companys m a prospects. And the name our traders think would make a magical addition. Thats when fast money returns. Can it make a dentist appointment when my teeth are ready . Can it tell the doctor how long you have to wear this thing . Can it tell the Flight Attendant to please not wake me this time . The answer is yes, it can. So, the question your customers are really asking is, can your business deliver . When you look at our branded business, aesthetics, eye care, g. I. , womens health, urology, infectious disease, these are higher margin higher growth businesses for us and so now we can double down, build those therapeutic categories up and also look for future transformational deals like we did the aller

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