Before the American Express news broke, the dow was under a lot of pressure. That number came in line with expectations. It wasnt terrible. The fed rate hike could still nbt cards. The dow is down 85 points. We have someone who says the Current Employment report is not measuring jobs properly. Hell explain why next. Also, more on twitter. Its falling yet again today. That stock has been cut in half in just four months. Its now 1 away from the ipo price. Well look at whether investors should be cutting losses or holding out hope at this point. Crazy. And maximizing your airline miles. Wait until you meet the guy who has flown nearly five million miles for free. I love this story. Hes looking to make a business out of helping others do the same. Bill, we have to talk about he is taking advantage of the system or just finding out the way to benefit it. Its all legal much its all ethical. Hes just found a way to gain the system. Well tell you exactly how hes doing that if a little bit. Lets get to Steve Liesman for the jobs report this morning and whether it keeps the fed on track for a september rate hike. Steve . Thank you very much. I think the important effect of this report is it changes the burden. The data doesnt have to be strong for the fed to hike. It is only to not to disappoint. And john ridings commentary that really made me think of. This he said the remaining data is we have to be weak until december. That means the burden of proof is to be weak, not strong. They see the july jobs report as a green light for the fed to go in september. It meets the feds criteria of further improvement in the labor market. Economists say september will be the month to remember for the rate hike. Hk is nhealth care is not a surprise. Businesses and Business Services were a strong point for the jobs report. Not that hiking rates will be an easy sell for the fed. You have declining Commodity Prices and weaker wage growth. We have to explain to the nation what exactly the fed is fixing by hiking rates. You know, steve, what is the market saying about how high the chances of a rate hike are throughout fed funds futures here . You have to sort of figure out why it ends up. Earlier i reported 50 working with an economist. We went back and did our math and it looks more like a 75 chance for september. Its a very complicated series of calculations to make to the point that the cme actually took down their probability from their website because it had said zero and they knew that was wrong. By the way, i think another interesting discussion is the extent to which the market is beginning this secondary debate about whether there will be a second rate hike this year. I think youre right. The onus is on the jobs report to come in weaker than expected in order to change any thought on Monetary Policy. Any number and it seems like were on track for september, right . Right. Except maybe one caveat is the debate on what the inflation data has to do. They need to tick up a little bit. If its declining in a big way that, could give the fed pause with a major question about how the commodity price decline weve seen is going to work its way into the cpi that youre looking at right now. Ben willis is with us and Rick Santelli is in chicago. It didnt seem like the market was expecting a rate hike. That didnt feel like a market expecting a rate increase any time soon. I think youre right on the dollar. The fact it went down is, bill, as you point the oud, doesnt fit. What does fit is the two year note at 72, closed at 66. Six basis points on the week. Tens are down one. And 30s are down nine basis points on the week. That type of curve flattening, short rates being higher than long rates does mean there is some type of trade there that theyre nervous about a normalization. But the one caveat is we have to discern is it a passive lick dags trade or a pro active trade i think its the former because even at 72 basis points we havent closed above 74 in a two year which was high yield in december. If we gain more traction on investor trulyi believing they should take the shorts, but at the highest levels in recent memory and well look to see how that develops over next coupling weeks. How you are playing this market and what the fed may or may not do . You saw spreads move today. Bill is spot on. Looked like there is a little d divergence. That would mean theyre trying to price in the september move. Weve been very nimble around this and we think that this could present a buying opportunity in equities at that tighter credit market potentially leads to a potential pullback that we saw to a certain extent today. That said, it really puts a importance on being well diversified. Take your equity exposure where it is most attractive. We that i is from a fully hedged basis. But we still would find ourselves on the short side of the fixed income trade as well. Ben willis, equities continued lower. Is this a taper tantrum in slow motion or Something Else going on . There was a march low and an early july low. But when we hit those numbers, we had a very Rapid Movement from the 2045 level back to above 2100 on the s p 500 within eight to ten days. I think were reading a little bit too much into a very summer friday, a very slow trading day even though there is a very important economic data. I think whats important is there is a great deal of nervousness, not in the equity market but the high yield etf market. There is a great deal of outflows in that market. Thats the function of what were seeing. I want to make clear the trade is going to be equities is a place you want to put your money because normalizing Interest Rates, not tightening Interest Rates, normalizing Interest Rates is a sign of a healthy economy. But youre making an assumption that theyre tightening because theyre getting better. Theyre not tightening, theyre normalizing. You use that term well. The fact is the zero Interest Rate format were in right now is doing nothing. I believe i believe theyre behind the yield curve. They need to step in and show something to normalize it, let it come to a level of im with you, ben. Okay. Steve liesman posed the question that janet yellen needs to explain what she is going to accomplish by raising rates. What are you accomplishing by keeping them to zero . Exactly. To his point about the inflation number. I think theyre looking at the wrong end wrf the inflation is happening. Ask your neighbor how much theyre paying on their car. How much more are they paying on that doesnt county. Ignore the inflation and Financial Assets in behind the curtain. Im with you, ben. Okay. All right. Doug, a last word you to here. Do you believe that the economy is ready to handle a fed hiking rates . The fed wants the tool back if the tool kit to use normalizie Monetary Policy tools. Theyll be much more gradual going forward. If there are concerns about whether or not the economy is healthy enough to take the rate hike, then they can be very, very gradual much its going to be a velvet hammer. They get the rate move and the tool back. Then very, very gradual and high bar for a second move in 2015. The velvet hammer. We debuted quite successfully the west texas Investment Club this week. We have the Federal Reserve second guessing Investment Club as well with our guests to day. That will be fun. Thank you. We can wear cowboy boots and hats, too, though. Get that cigar out, too, rick. That will be great. Doug gordon, ben willis and Rick Santelli have a good weekend. American express is popping on reports that the capital is taking a billion dollar stake in the company. Its affecting the dow today. Mary thompson has more on this story. This could be yet another challenge for American Express which has recently face legal setbacks. The loss some of Key Executives and, of course, the loss of that exclusive costco account which winds down tend of the year. In the wake of the reports about value act today, American Express in a statement said that value act is a well respected firm and we have been speaking with them as we do with other investors and look forward to continuing a constructive dialogue. At American Express, the company goes on to say were focused on building long term value for shareholders and always open to the views and perspectives of our investors. It failed to hit the long term revenue goal. Cost cuts and buybacks bolstered payments, it failed to show off the newer investments and initiatives will drive revenues to targeted levels. Value act capital is based in San Francisco and has a little bit over 18 billion in assets under management. The companys web side says undervalued company. Dont look for a lot of headlines for value act. Usually it is a quiet role where it invests in and will seek a board seat if necessary. And also they hold for anywhere from about three to five years. Longer term they hold these stakes that they take in the companies. Now reportedly the company is not interested in making any immediate changes at American Express. We reached out to valueact via email and phone and we have not received any response. Back to you. Mary, just one quick question. When it comes to investors wondering what valueacts intentions may be, weve seen a couple examples from the past. Microsofts volmer stepped down. Valiant was inquiztive. Any sense in what theyre looking for with American Express . I really wouldnt want to speculate at this time. American express is facing a very competitive environment and some of the newer initiatives like off to blue serve while theyre popular, theyre not the profit drivers that past products have been. There are questions, i think that, investors would like answered. Well see if valueact has any plans of its own. But right now, its not known to us. Eager to see what theyre going to do with this one. Thank you, mary. Mary thompson in virginia. A lot will depend on whether the problems are related to the industry or just amex specific. Oh, yes. They felt like they lost that exclusive brand feel to them that theyve had for years. Well see what they can do. A lot of big moves on the activist front between them and actman. 45 minutes to go until the close. The dow is down 94 points. Even across the major three indices. When we come back, what in the world is going on at twitter . That stock tumbling more than 10 this week alone. Its near a 21 week low. All the others are selling at this point. And perhaps you notice facebooks logo is all over tv last night. The Republican Debate as it was basically cosponsoring it there with fox news, host. The pros are going to weigh in on whether at which timer is missing the boat on Key Opportunities like this one and where it goes from here. Also coming up, so how you would like to fly five million miles for free . I wonder what bag fees he paid. Almost for free. The man who did it is trying to start a business of his own to help others fly for free as well. Youll meet him coming up. It took Serena Williams years to master the two handed backhand. But only one shot to master the chase mobile app. Technology designed for you. So you can easily master the way you bank. No students ever been the king of the campus on day one. But youre armed with a roomy new jansport backpack, a powerful new dell 2in1 laptop, and durable new stellar notebooks, so youre walking the halls with varsity level swagger. Thats what we call that new gear feeling. You left this on the bus. Get it at the place with the experts to get you the right gear. Office depot officemax. Gear up for school. Gear up for great. Welcome back. The headlines show twitter plunging 13 trading within striking distance of the 26 ipo price. Wall street has been full of expectations for twitter as a product and stock. Now its beloet 27 mark, what are are investors hoping can turn it around from here . Joining us, max wolf and alexei refkapich. You wrote a story about the morale at twitter. It has just plunged there. I mean this is as bad as it gets for a company right now given all the conditions that and headwinds theyre facing, right . Thats right. The situation is pretty difficult for them. Theyre obviously already in the dog house with wall street. And now youre starting to see some of those worries and kind of uncertainty deep into the ranks of the company itself. There is still a ceo search going on. It is a full time leader. People are thinking maybe its time to try Something Else. Fox had the highest rated Program Environment we are the gop debate. Facebook was involved. There were a lot of facebook questions. There were a lot of facebook viewers mentioned. The name was all over. Twitter itself said with regard to last night, the two gop debates were viewed over 1. 1 billion time on twitter and across the web. But is twitter missing a key moment here . Twitter was the First Response place that people looked more than web news and in some cases even more than the Live Television broadcast or they tried to watch live pieces across twitter. Thats what i dont get, max. Youre absolutely right. We talked about this a lot on this program. Why cant they make any money as a result of this . They k they deserve some demerit for not being there yet. Theyre growing revenue at 66 . Less than the Company Income trouble, although it hurts where theyre at now and certainly they do need new leadership in there and being without that short leadership is not good. Its been a change of sent. Than a change of company. This company is trading at a low multiple against the Tech Companies here. And the company isnt really doing poorly. It is doog better than it was a year ago. But the verdict is in that people wont wait anymore. And there is a slippery slope here. Twitter always had this problem. I dont think its totally fair. People want it to be facebook and its not going to be facebook. Well, all that said, alexei, today twitter asked me to update the birthday to my profile. There are some profile you know, 2008 facebook profile like things going on here. Is this ultimately a product focused issue, they need to get either the right management onboard or the core product to right the ship. Thats been a long time knock. The sprouk too difficult to use for, you know, the average person. Sure, its got there are journalists and celebrities and people like that that are really night. But the average person still cant figure out how to use it. And so theres a lot of discussion inside and outside the company about how they can really revamp that product, make it more relevant to every day people. Do you agree with that . Do they risk dumbing it down to make it more user friendly to people who dont understand it to this point . Number because the best designed tools are idiot proof. They still really work. Everybody wants convenience no matter how smart they are. I dont think that is a huge risk. They need two things big time to get to your two very good points. They need to make this easier and more intuitive. Part is how people feel about it. There is a good number of books out there who like at which time eastern want to use it. But who feel like its a place theyre going to go and embarrass themselves. Silt important from a wall street perspective, they have to figure out a self serve ad platform that allows them to cash in on the huge influence i believe they have, like last night. I know a lot of people are afraid of using twitter because they would embarrass them self. But it never stopped me from continuing to tweet, thats for sure. I was finishing up my glance at twitter while you were asking that very question. Embedded for us. See if, only they could make money while they was doing that just now. Thank you so much for being here. Appreciate it. Weve got about 40 minutes, a little less of trading to go here. The dow is down 75 points. Were fluctuating here below the unchange level on what has been a pretty tough week for the equities markets here in the u. S. Heres a question for you. Our new economy jobs being adequately counted. More sharing companies crop up and we talk about the big economy, we get both sides of this issue coming up. And still ahead, a hero of mine, the man who flew five million miles explains how hes doing it and starting a business to help other flyers do the same thing. Thats coming up. I can do a lot of what humans can. 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While those pesky fees seem to make flights more expensive every time we travel. He said consumers are doing it all wrong. Welcome our Airline Expert. Welcome to you. Thanks for having me. I appreciate it. Are all the fees included when youre doing all this flying on frequent miles here . Yes. In my case i have status with many airlines. When you fly quite a bit with airlines, you bet the perks where you get waived fees, free upgrades, bonus miles. For the most part, im not pa