Weekend. Greece wants the bailout talks to be done by early tomorrow at the latest. The key date to watch, folks, august 20th that is when greece has a repayment due to the ecb. And gloomy data on trait inflation. Investors show that beijing is about to roll out more stimulus. And watching oil. Prices falling for six straight weeks. Oil slightly low again. The latest lundberg survey shows gas prices down 11 cents over the past two weeks. That puts the National Average for a regular gallon of gasoline at 2. 71. Gas down 81 cents a gallon from last year. The dow and oil have gone in the exact same direction so thats why stock investors should care about oil. You know, its interesting because weve talked so much about how this is a huge tax cut for consumers. You just mentioned prices at the pumps down 11 cents at the pump over the last few weeks. You keep wondering when that payoff hits. We know what its done for highpaying jobs but its been less likely to show up in some of the weaker sales. With all due respect to many of our colleagues that we find ourselves in, the whole gas price helping to spark prices. I mean, ive got buddies of mine, my wife works in retail. We talked about it, people pay off Credit Card Debt and they drive more. Restaurants benefit. Restaurants, dining how has been. Thats a big one. No ones going to say, even if you look at the numbers, you say the average american using about 1,000 gallons of gasoline. Thats 300 in savings, thats n not insignificant, but is that enough for someone to say lets go buy that new house in myrtle, we saved 300 in gas. Thats not going to happen. Theres that silver lining. Anybody on the roads this weekend, shall we say, has realized that, too. Lets get to todays top corporate story, Berkshire Hathaway nearing a deal to buy Precision Castparts. Its currently one of the largest showerholders. Precision castparts makes parts for aerospace and energy industry. Most of that come its in aerospace industry, 70, 75 is directly in the aerospace vee. But if you take a look at that chart Precision Castparts, it sold off because of problems theyve seen with oil and energy as well. Thats eye woo ywhy you see the down. The company had a market capitalization of 7. 6 billion. And one quick comment with precision, they themselves are sort of buffettlike, they make acquisitions like crazy. I think one of the reasons if youre buffett, and you want to own this company, its acquisitions. Its one of those companies where if you actually can get real capital behind it, you can totally change the game. I would argue it has the moat, defensive moat. Every plane uses these guys. Nobody else in the business. Its not a company that the viewers know about because theres no consumer products. Its not a company ive ever paid attention to. Its the second biggest highest Company Behind nike. Its a big company. When i saw the deal, i thought is this buffett maybe putting a floor under the oil business, too . I wondering the same thing. But then again, hes somebody that has longterm strategies, i dont think hed necessarily have something changing in the sex six months or two years. Pearson reportedly to announce its stake in the publisher of economist. Pearson has acquired the 50 stake along with the financial times. They sell the titles to the japanese publisher. Likely to go to the guys who own the other 50 . The italian family. They tried to talk a couple others, bloomberg and others, but cant get them. I dont think. Well see what happens here. All right. Lets get a check on monday markets this morning. Here we go, the stock futures are down. If anything weve got a slightly higher open that were looking at. The dow futures indicating a couple points to the upside at best. That would be a change, folks, because we are coming into this morning, if you were on vacation last week, with seven straight losing sessions. So, today, you know, if we go down, it will be eight straight down days for the dow. Minor losses for the index there. The big story is in asia. China stocks posting their gains, up 5 in shanghai. Optimism the government may have to step in with stimulus. We just talked about it, watched oil, a sixyear low. Oil is down a couple cents. But the number you want to watch, 43. 35, thats the closing low we hit back on st. Patricks day 2015. And gold has been a disaster this year, 1,093 per ounce. Probably because of the strong dollar. And also gold just doesnt go anywhere. Right, over time. Its heavy. In the meantime, lets get the to our monday morning strategy session. Post jobs and post a rough week for oil. We havent talked about media. And the overall markets, what can we expect this week. Joining us now is jim osullivan, and doug codey is here, chief market strategist. I wasnt here on friday. I read the news, i watched a little cnbc. What does the fed do after the jobs report . What is the new betting arm if there there isnt a new betting arm . I call it the fed, the new maestro in a positive way, shes going to finesse this no matter what happens. I believe in september, she raises rates 25 basis points she catches it in dovish language, everybody goes home happy. And shes been doing that. She has been finessing this market in every statement since she became fed chair. So i think she needs to raise rates. And then its go to be a shallow trend from there on in. But but my question, i guess, or where im really going to this, the earnings numbers seem lousy which would make me think september and maybe not so much . No, 215,000 in employment is more than enough to keep employment down. Its 1. 8 per year which at one time was not very strong, given demographics but its going to be 1 per year. The second trend is. 115 for the year. The message is they will tighten if the labor market shows some future improvement. And the labor market is improving. Do either of you want to take on the issue in terms of oil, whats happening with oil . And more importantly, is it going to have a economic stimulus, if you will, when it comes to other companies . Well, were have retail sales coming out this thursday. I actually beg to differ. Because i think its going to be a strong number. I think backtoschool sales are going to be strong. Who are you delivering with . I didnt say retail sales were going to come in a week. I just said theres not a big benefit to lower oil in the retail sales numbers. It could come in spectacularly great. Its not a media trend. But positive trends in housing. But i think that has the ability to be very strong. And i think the backtoschool sales. And energy. One of the things about energy, it was coming back up. We had a 68 price target. But people were concerned that it was going to continually go up. Its not going up. Were in a lowarea environment for the next 20 years. Consumers are finally starting to get that. And its a long trend so i think it will be positive. The drop in gasoline prices was worth about 1 for real disposable income for consumers. And it was a jump in the saving rate in the first quarter. But Second Quarter did come in decent. I mean was 3 basically growth for Consumer Spending. Having gone up a point in the first quarter, going down a half point in the second. But theyre spending more on gasoline and dining . I dont think gasoline was up all that much. Total Consumer Spending up 5 . Compared with how much gasoline prices are down, i think its still a small amount of it. Consumer spending was up 3 , not a booming number but stronger than income. We should get a decent Regional Sales report this week. And jobs last week. The other thing is the huge plunge in drilling activity which has probably taken half a percentage point out of gdp. Thats a big thing. Number one, i think the retail sales number is going to be spectacularly big because of amazons prime day. Prime day was, what, bigger than black friday or cyber monday, whatever that holiday is. Lets not forget the oil has provided the only real growth industry in the United States over the last five years. 23 of jobs created in the last five years come from texas which is only 9 of texas. Midland, texas had the highest per capita, a High School Graduate can make 100,000 a year. The investment is worth 1 of gdp. In the fourth quarter, down 6 . But its plunging in the first half of the year. You look at weekly oil numbers and theyve bottomed out already. Things that you guys are talking, jobs picture and retail sales up, how come that didnt match up with how americans feel about the country right now . Usually, dont watch Consumer Sentiment and how americans feel. Watch you how they spend. They are starting to spend. Also the manufacturing numbers, i was actually surprised at the strength of manufacturing. Manufacturing, its been positive all year. We had 39 consecutive months of positive manufacturing in light of a collapsing energy sector, so Something Else, theres another dynamic going on. The resilience of these markets are astounding. Were going to let you go, but i did watch on the media guy, but what about the media stocks . I cant comment on individual stocks, i think its mainly consumer driven, but ill just leave it at that. Nobody wants to touch well touch on it a lot more throughout the show. Thanks, guys. In global news this morning, reports of a bomb blast in an attack on the u. S. Consulate in istanbul today. Heather joins with the latest. Authorities are on high alert after a series of attacks including a shooting outside of a u. S. Consulate in istanbul. Officials say a man and a woman opened fire. Local media reporting that the female was wounded in the fire fight and is in custody. The other suspect is at large. The u. S. Consulate closed until further notice. In a separate incident, at least ten people were injured after a truck laden with explosives outside of the city. Media saying at least three people were killed in that attack. Nobody is claiming responsibility for the incidents but it comes after a few weeks after president erdogan declared a war on terror. Just as a turkish soldier was killed after a bun gather with turkish fighters. Thats the latest in a string of attacks as turkey cracks down on militants. And turkeys president is using his agreement with americans to fight isis in order to, quote, a bigger push to eliminate opposition from the kurds. Okay. Thank you, appreciate it very much for that report. In the meantime, when we come back, donald trump hitting the sunday shows, defending his debate comments. And now a new nbc News Survey Money poll showing hes still in the lead. John harwood joins us to talk about it. But first, as we head to break, heres a look back at this date in history. Welcome back to squawk box, everyone. A new nbc news online poll conducted by survey monkey is out today. Donald trump remains at the top with 23 . Ted cruz in second place with 13 . The overnight poll was conducted for 24 hours frommed any evening into saturday. Thats when trump was, of course, in the headlines following his comments about fox news anchor megyn kelly. John harwood joining us from washington. This is a counter to what a lot of people were saying after the debate. They were saying trump lost ground. Yeah, and people thought that marco rubio had a breakout performance. Look, you cant draw too many conclusions from any single poll. And were going to see a raft of others in of the next couple of days and see if this is confirmed. But ive got to say that, every time people have thought we hit the moment of peak trump, and then trump is going to decline, it hasnt happened. Youve got some supporters who are very angry with politics. And angry with the party establishment. And donald trump, all of the inpolitic things hes saying they dont seem to care. I think they will eventually, but it hasnt happened so far. John we talk all the time, weve heard from a lot of people last week. People who were on that stage, who were behind in the polls who pointed out look if you look back four years ago, it wasnt the frontrunners who were in the lead at that point. When does that actually gel . When do you say the frontrunner that you have now is going to be the frontrunner you are going to have . I think it gets serious when we get keep into the fall and the campaign for New Hampshire and iowa kicks into gear. People are advertising, theyre engaging in a very intense way with the republican caucusgoers in iowa. Primary voters in New Hampshire. And i think thats when we get from the you know, spring training people working out the kinks in their campaign. And people start looking at these candidates, becky through a different lens. Through the lens can i see this person behind the desk in the oval office as president. Were not at that stage yet. And i think we could expect to get there maybe thanksgiving time would be a fair marker for when you really get into the Serious Business part of the campaign. Remember, even the democratic race in 2004, howard dean had a lead for quite a long time. Then late in 2003, john kerry went in a big way. John, with trump out front, though, if you say hes going to be out front through thanksgiving, who gets hurt by that inside the party and who gets helped by that inside the party . Well, first of all, just to clarify, thanksgiving i think is when people will look more seriously. I dont know if trumps going to be leading through thanksgiving. There are some people who think he wont be in the race a month from now. But i think donald trump mostly is helping jeb bush, giving him a little bit of cover and time to get in shape, as a candidate. Remember, jeb bush hasnt run in quite a long time. And by blotting out the opportunity to move up for a bunch of other candidates who arent getting the attention that they would otherwise get. You know, marco rubio was on meet the press yesterday. He said, if i spend all the time answering questions about donald trump, i couldnt get my own message out. Look, thats whats happened a lot. He hasnt, scott walker hasnt, ted cruz hasnt. The message has been blotted out. So because jeb bush has got 100 million. And hes because got longterm staying power in the race, had he is more likely to survive and be in decent shape at the end of the trump period than others are. But where are jeb bush and marco rubio. We talked about ted cruz, how far behind are they . Well, at this particular poll, behind cruz, carson and trump. But again, thats just one. In most of the polls youve got trump leading with right around 20 , maybe a little more than 20 . And then youve got jeb bush, scott walker around 10 , 11 , 12 . And some people below that. And marco rubio is very clear to that 10, 11, 12 . John, you talked to trump supporters. Do you get the sense they support donald trump the man . Or is there support for trump really a proxy of them being six of everybody else . The latter. I think even the feeling that the political system hasnt delivered for them, theyre mad. And laura ingraham, the radio show host, said theres a cadre of voters who are seething with the fury of politics and establishment. Those are the kind of people who are impervious to the conventional calculations that we all would make, oh, he said something you cant say. You offended women. Theyll stand up and say, hey, hes speaking the truth. And Donald Trumps response to most everything he says and gets criticized is we dont have time for political correctness. There are a lot of people that say damn right. John, the funny part, the people who know him dont seem to be supporting him. Even carl icahn, i dont know if you saw his tweet, he doesnt want the job nor does he want trump in office. Today, theres another piece of news around Hillary Clinton who may make it to office, i dont know what you think these days. On education reform and specifically going at the debt issues. Shes come up with a couple of financial plans. So far, weve heard about her quarterly capitalism irk and some other things shes said. Is this going to play . It will play among certain democratic primary voters. But 350 le 350 billion over ten is a lot of money. Shes proposed to tax reducti s reductions. People think taxes ought to be higher on wealthy americans but a straight out program to spend 350 billion to relieve Higher Education debt, is that going to be something in a general election with broad appeal . Maybe. But certainly in a primary where youve got people like Martin Omalley and Bernie Sanders talking about debtfree college. They would go further than Hillary Clinton did. That sort of, at least in a primary context puts her in the run for the party rather than a fallout. John, thank you very much. You bet. Coming up, why americans are no longer loling. Yes, laughing out loud. First, before we head to break, lets get a look at last weeks s p winners and some losers as well. Youre watching squawk box, cnbc Business Worldwide. Were back after this. Can a business have a mind . A subconscious. A knack for predicting the future. Reflexes faster than the speed of thought. Can a business have a spirit . Can a business have a soul . Can a business be. Alive . In the us, three in ten College Students drop out. But how can you spot whos at risk . The one who lives far from campus . The one who works the night shift . The one with new responsibilities . One thing cant tell you, but the right combination can. Universities are using ibm analytics to understand pressures in and out of the classroom some expect to cut dropout rates by twentyfive percent. Ibm analytics is working to make education smarter every day. In the city welcome back to squawk box. Looking at stories that are getting our attention this morning. You know, donald trump always says you got to stop being politically correct. I know donald comes down on the story, but theres a story this morning about target, the retailer, deciding to do away with gender orientation in terms of certain products in the stores, so that toys, for example, kids toys or bedding which historically got the boys toys would be like in a blue area, and they might be superheroes. Answer the girls toys might be in a pink area with colors. They would do with bedding and other products. Not clothes, obviously clothes are gender specific. But they have decided to do away with all of that, theyre going to mix it all together now. You know why theyre doing that now because they got in big trouble. Shopp