Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20171019 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box October 19, 2017

Today. Lets get to the Global Markets report u. S. Equity futures right now are looking a little bit lower dow futures indicated down by 68 points this comes after the dow closed above 23,000 for the First Time Ever and it did so in a powerful way with the dow gain of 160 points yesterday. Right now it looks like the nasdaq is indicated to open down by 31 points the s p futures are indicated down by 9 points overnight in asia, china reporting Third Quarter gdp growth of 6. 8 , in line with expectations, but you can see a pull back in both markets. The shanghai composite off by a third of a percent in japan, stocks closed higher again, up 0. 4 21,448 ibm, that was almost 15 points, 5 in the morning, 6. 7. 9 at one point. Cramer was going nuts there were all the naysayers, after 22 straight quarters of declining revenue and still there and there were the questions about the tax issues those were the consensus, cramer against consensus, saying it was more about the next quarter and the Inflection Point is coming. I was busy last night, i didnt see Martin Schroeder on with cramer well hear more about that. The dow did 160 this was 16 points thats a lot of it the rest of the market didnt look that great. No. Ibm powered the way with that. We have some other breaking news to tell you out of europe spains golf says it will move to suspend ka catalonias autonomy after the regions leader failed to drop a bid for independence willem marx has the latest there was a deadline this morning for the catalans to essentially pull back from any declaration of independence. Instead they sent a letter to madrid saying we suspended that declaration. We will continue to suspend it and we want dialogue with you guys rajoy said there is no dialogue, we will invoke article 155 which will allow them to strip autonomy measures from the cat lachb authori catalan authority. Mariano rajoy will be coming here later to meet with european leaders, he doesnt want to talk about catalonia, but im sure it will come up in conversations. Once they come up with measures which could includedissolving part of the catalan parliament, that could be days or weeks, at some point the Central Government will take action to try to reduce the power of that autonomous government in catalonia. They said they will respond with a declaration of independence. A lot of uncertainty and moving parts. Okay. Thank you. Appreciate that. We will keep an eye on the story. I imagine well talk to you later. On wall street today, a pair of nieconomic reports weekly jobless claims at 8 30 eastern time along with the october Philadelphia Fed survey. As for earnings, travelers, verizon, bank of new york, melon, blackstone all report before the opening bell. Well talk about that on squawk, and paypal after the close. American express Ceo Ken Chenault will be stepping down from a 17year run as ceo. Hes one of the first africanamericans to run a fortune 500 company. When he took the helm in 2001, he worked to turn around amex after the company lost its partnership with costco. The firm expanded beyond its core market of corporate and wealthy markets. Chenault will be exceeded by Steven Squeri effective february 1st. On the conference call, the incoming boss said that the next chapter will be about building on the momentum generated with a special focus on innovation, expanding core product offerings, and enhancing brand and customer relationships, and partnering with others to stay ahead of the curve the Credit Card Company posted betterthanexpected thaird Quarter Results last night shares down about a percent this morning. Other stocks to watch, ebays Third Quarter profit was in line with forecasts revenue edged past analysts expectations because the Company Warns Fourth Quarter profit could miss expectations as it invests more in marketing and a revamped website in an effort to attract more shoppers. That hurt the stock. Its down 5. 6 United Airlines Third Quarter profit falling less than forecast the carrier had to cancel thousands of flights due to the hurricane and bad weather. United says it will continue to increase capacity to defend market share stock is down by 1. 8 . Uniteds ceo, oscar munoz, will join us coming up at 8 00 a. M. Eastern time. Final bids are due today for the cities trying to be home to amazons Second Headquarters more than 100 cities are in the race the announcement will come next year. Gilead has been approved for a cancer immunotherapy we will talk more about that treatment including the costs with meg tirrell in the next hour blue apron cutting about 6 of its work force. The Meal Kit Delivery companys valuation dropped by more than 50 since it went public four months ago its been dealing with rising costs, declining customers and the threat of competition from rivals like amazon look at adobe shares they are rising this morning the Company Offering upbeat fullyear earnings and revenue guidance at its analysts day President Trump is walking back support for a bipartisan healthcare deal. Eamon javers has more on the story. He joins us now. On tuesday in the rose garden the president said some things about this bipartisan deal between senators alexander and murray that appeared to a lot of people to suggest that he supported the deal we reported to you that afternoon that the president did not, in fact, support the deal, despite what a lot of people were interpreting from his comments yesterday the president made clear that he does not support the deal heres what he said. Well see the bipartisan, Lamar Alexander is working on it very hard from our side. If something can happen, thats fine i wont do anything to enrich the Insurance Companies. Right now the Insurance Companies are being enriched theyve been enriched by obamacare like nothing anybody has seen before. Im not going to do anythingto enrich the Insurance Companies when the president talks about enriching the Insurance Companies, hes talking about those socalled csr payments to Insurance Companies that he stopped last week. Now in the proposed deal those csr payments would be reinstated not clear that the president knew that at the time he talked about the deal in the rose garden on tuesday. Some of the elements of the bipartisan deal thats pending on the hill, they would pay csrs for two years, extend catastrophic plans for americans over the age of 30, offer states flexibility on plans and preserve coverage for essential health benefits. Some people were thinking that there was a bipartisan way forward on healthcare, now that the president has made it clear he does not support that, it looks like it will be tough for republicans to get behind this it might be tough for Lamar Alexander and patty murray to round up supporters for the deal that they need to push that through. Thats where the president is today. Another key meeting on his schedule today he will be meeting with the governor of puerto rico at the white house to discuss puerto ricos hurricane recovery. Thats something that the white house has been focused on. They have taken heat on it the president wants to make it clear hes doing everything he can to help the island recover from the hurricane when it comes to the healthcare market, Lamar Alexander made the argument if republicans dont do something with these failing exchanges, the next item up will be universal healthcare, a nationalized Healthcare System that Bernie Sanders wants. How does that argument fly it terrifies republicans on the hill who dont want to go near that, and they dont want a Bernie Sanders victory the trick is for republicans, Lamar Alexander is right there in saying that if the exchanges collapse, then they will have to do something to fix it because otherwise there will be a giant political and humanitarian mess that is on their hands. So how do they fix it . Do they simply sure up obamac e obamacare . Thats not a position any of them want to be in theyve been campaigning against obamacare for a decade in that situation they would be in a tough spot Lamar Alexander suggesting here might be a way forward where they could suggest they fixed the problems of obamacare and move on and be done with this debate which is getting in the way of republicans doing much of anything else on capitol hill. Every time it seems like the healthcare bill is dead, there is some effort to revive it. We saw that with Lindsey Grahams effort and this one its the debate that wont die at some point they have to do something and move on, or else the rest of the legislative agenda could be in peril can you handicap the five things that are supposed to get done by the end of the year . How about the budget what are the chances you have the budget you have to have the budget if you have tax reform. Daca, the big imfwrags demigratl the president talked about a number of other things subsidy things. Right the president also talked about an Economic Development bill that he wants to introduce that would come soon not clear when that would come or what that is. Dont forget the iranian deal right i forgot about that theres so much on this congresss plate in a normal year its difficult for any of these big ticket items to happen. Its very difficult for them to happen all at once, this is not a normal year in washington. You remember what i said, load it up if youre not going to do anything, load it up with everything you might as well put everything on there lets say you dont get two things done. Why not have ten things on there to not get done . Really act like i bet the budget gets done. You might as well load it up the budget might get done looks impossible, tax reform might get done, tax cuts might get done you notice that the president has stopped talking about tax reform as of this year when you talk to folks at the white house behind the scenes, they say were very much aware of the calendar, we know that this year might be tough were realistic about it, but this year is still at goal, which indicates to me theyre almost sort of emotionally giving up on 2017 for tax reform and moving to 2018 that might still get done, but theres an enormous amount of stuff to do, healthcare, immigration, iran, all these big ticket items all at once, its an enormous ask from the white house to congress. To your point, you know, if you dont intend to do those things, it doesnt matter. You would think the white house wants to have significant legislative accomplishments. Maybe theyll surprise us were not expecting a lot. No, they wont. I dont want to be cynical, if you ask me to put a bet down, its a big, dead lift. It is eamon, thank you dow is not it is not worried about that many things closing solidly above the 23,000 level. It was a different picture 30 years ago when the dow collapsed more than 20 in a day that became known as black monday joining us now is karen firestone, chairman and ceo of rss management and she studied the crash in her textbooks in school. Charles campbell is here from mkm partners i think your grandson was at a trading desk at the crash. How do you like that horrible, sexist what i did. No you were both there both of you. You were at fidelity i was you were involved in the business actually in the peter lynch days exactly those days put fidelity on the map. He was great i would ask both of you if were beyond this kind of thing happening again. Thats what everybody is saying, the fed put, or plunge protection team. Or have we learned enough with putting the collars on, not allowing it to go. Its interesting. When people said to me or i read 30 years ago, it was the crash i had forgotten that it was the day. Because something happened 30 years ago to the day does not mean theres similarity to this day. Not only did we not have come computers on our desk or laptops, we didnt have connection the way we saw the market was with quotetrons. Right and we were gathered, people were gathered near my office there was no bloomberg machines no, there was no internet, there was no electronic trading. It was er isheerily silent. You think about the stocks crawling at the bottom, thats what it was. Would have to type in, and it was not instant information. It was very slow scary. Leading up to that day, we had big losses leading up to it. Nobody thought a 00 poi500 poins possible it was up over 40 through august 25th of this year the tenyear treasury moved up over 300 basis points to over 10 in early october its a very different environment from a 160, 165, to 230. Its a different environment over 10 . 300 basis points. The fed was tightening in that spring right thank doesnt mean it cant be repeated we have strategies today which are different from portfolio insurance which increased your equity exposure as the market went higher. Electronic stop loss, essentially. They were presented by academics who were ph. D. S. You were selling futures against your positions elegant models. They made it sound like a black tie affair you dont need elegant models, you need models that will resemble economic reality. More scared of what we have today. You have rules based investing, the fed at zero for eight years. You have etfs, more potential for disaster you have a half trillion in risk parity strategies right all moving at the same time if you look at todays environment, the flash crash of a few years ago, one of the common fallacies is that investors think, not all, some investors think you can capture, quaun quantify and domesticate all relevant risks in a portfolio. I think that trivializes the investment process i agree with that to say that this makes a crash much more likely today rather than yesterday or the day before, i think thats naive in fact, theyre the same type of trading strategies in a much, much, much more sophisticated way today than before. No one has calculated all the risk if theres an external event, theres something that we dont know about that might ultimately cause that, nobody thought portfolio insurance or nobody thought this would spread from asia, came from asia, through europe and the United States we had we have had other big declines, whether it was 2,000, we remember that tech crash. Of course, you know, what we had in 08 this some pairson with today and periods of time where we can say, yes, this could happen. There are things that can happen, but its a better news story. The media doesnt prefer grinding forward no one looking at what happened likes grinding forward theres people out there, you can hes been saying that for years. Look at drudge. They can find a different guy almost every day that says the worst crash ever stocks will lose 50 , 60 of their value but thats a good story i know. The more there are investors who say the market is at a top, its overvalued, its extended, thats a bullish indicator. But when but at some point yeah. At some point it may prove to be true. If corporate earnings continue to perform it wont be today that proves to be false thank you when does the contra indicator become the indicator its weird when that happens, then everybody piles in doing the same thing its weird we have more coming up on squawk box. We have United Airlines posting an earnings beat and matching revenue estimates. Well dig through the companys report with an analyst at 8 00 a. M. Eastern time, uniteds Ceo Oscar Munoz will join us on squawk. Not rebalancing your portfolio. Focused on what you love, not how your money will last through retirement. We make it easier to plan for retirement with day one target date funds from prudential. Look forward to your 401k plan. When it might be time to buy or sell . With fidelitys realtime analytics, youll get clear, actionable alerts about potential Investment Opportunities in real time. Fidelity. Open an account today. Fidelity. Pthey dont invest inn stalternativesds. Or municipal strategies. What people really invest in is what they hope to get out of life. But helping them get there means you cant approach investing from just one point of view. Because its only when you collaborate and crosspollinate many points of view that Something Wonderful can happen. Those people might just get what they want out of life. Or they could get even more. Welcome back to squawk box. United out with Third Quarter results. Earnings of 2. 20 beating analysts expectations. Joining us is how noisy was this quarter the quarter was noisy. With any airline, youre not looking at what happened but looking at what theyre guiding to when they guided, they gave a unit revenue that was better than everybody expected. Costs that gave you anxiety and capacity that raises questions about how good that unit revenue could be for next year in terms of how youre looking at the airline landsc e landscape, how does united measure up to delta, american . Elsewhere . For us, its lower in the priorities of airlines its probably our least preferred of the stocks. I think theyre in a transitional situation, where they came out with some bold Revenue Strategies theyve having to retrace steps. It was going to be a billion dollar tailwind from this economy rollout. Now its a head wind they wont grow as fast. Now theyre growing faster some communication they got out there now is raising a lot of concern with investors but what that outlook could be for next year in terms of your price target on this company where we are right now . Yeah. I think the Airline Stocks will be the sky is the limit or the sky is falling we went through an

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