Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20180105 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box January 5, 2018

The averages passed a major number on tuesday, the nasdaq passed 7,000. On wednesday, tyesterday the do hitting 25,000 for the first time ever. This morning the dow futures are indicated up by 75 points s p futures up by 7 1 2. Nasdaq up by 30. The first trading week of the year on that time we are talking about some strong days the best threeday winning streak to start the year for the nasdaq since 2006, for the s p since 2010 of course we always talk about what happens in january often indicates what happens for the full year. Well talk all about this throughout the program today green arrows across the board. Lets look at asia the nikkei ended up by 0. 9 a gain of 208 points 23,714 hang seng up by 0. 25 . The shanghai up by 0. 2 . In europe, you will see also same story there up across the board. The biggest gainer being the dax, which is up by more than 1. 1 quick update to a security flaw that may have exposed some smartphones and pcs to hackers really did in a big way. Intel is sending out Software Updates that will make its processors immune to the meltdown in spectre vulnerabilities that have the Technology World in a frenzy at the moment it hopes to have updates for 90 of its processor products by the end of next week separately apple already weighing in on the threat. The Company Report theres a all mac and ios devices, iphone, ipads, macbooks affected by those security flaws, but the most recent Software Update protects users against the meltdown atakmelt jo meltdown attack but not against the spectre flaw apple and amazon yesterday we mentioned the fear was not only this exploit but the only way to correct it would be to use software that would slow the chips down by a third. Apple, amazon and others and Google Google found the flaw originally they said the Software Patches put in place do not degrade the performance of the chips billboard reporting that jimmy iovine could leave his role this summer he joined apple as part of its 3 3 billion purchase of beats back in 2014 former uber ceo travis kalanick, this is fascinating news, hes reportedly selling nearly a third of his 10 stake in the company for 1 1. 4 billion the sale is said to be part of broader investment deal led by softbank the sale is set to be part of a broader investment deal left by softbank the consortium is buying shares from early investors and employees to take a 17. 5 stake in the company because of this im of two views. If you know travis, hes somebody who i was convinced he genuinely believed this company was not a 48 billion company or a 68 billion company, but 100 billion, 2 200 billion company having said that, he can still have that view and be frustrated with management, be frustrated with where he is, or you could say thats the cherry on top well let that ride. If he still has that much of it, and hes been frustrated i will take my 1. 4 billion and i may compete against you. So theres lots of shades of gray of people trying to assess his motivations. Back to the markets President Trump taking some time to tout the dow crossing 25,000. We broke a big barrier, breaking 25,000. Some said we wouldnt break 25,000 by the eighth year. Were in the 11th month and we crossed 25,000 i have to be careful because maybe as i walk out it goes down you always have to be careful with that, tom but we did, in fact, break 25,000 substantially break it. Easily so i guess our new number is 30,000 but what it means is that every time you see that number go up on wall street, it means jobs. It means success it means 401 k s flourishing if i could pick someone to summarize this i was thinking about it, theres a lot of people, a lot of people we could choose from. But theres only one i would want a lot of times people mistake you never know with someone, sometimes theyre sarcastic. I was talking with my wife, dom chu makes any story come alive come alive, no matter what not just the love i have for you, but also for penelope shes an unbelievable person i love her, shes a fantastic wife, fantastic person in general. Thats nice, dom, but your golf swing annoys me my golf swing annoys a lot of people you know why it does . Because of the way you transition have the hitch at top. No, you dont its butter. It reminds me of someone who has practiced a lot. Thats the key if you can come from here, accelerate into the hitting zone, whats your handicap a 4 . Im higher than a 4 ask him how many games he played last year how many rounds last year did becky ask that . Yes, she did. Did my wife put her up to that. Im in cahoots with your wife shes been talking to megan how many rounds did you play . What can he do with the baby . Help out with the diaper. Its your job oh. Whoa. Guys this is what i meant. You are the you are the nurturer youre the one with the food youre the one with the food i want him out of the house get him out of the house and go. Talk your way out of this one. If i wasnt wearing so much makeup now, i would be turning bright red so you know i might be in trouble for that thats not what i meant. I met youre useless around the house, the mother is the with an infant very useful i just this squawkward moment has been brought to you by joe kernen it has. Any way, i am here, i thank you for the kind words appreciate the fact when it comes to the market tidbits, i can join you to deliver interesting stats. The interesting part about this whole 401 discussion, is that people are seeing iras and 401 k s go up in value because of a number of stocks. In the dow its five stocks specifically that have driven the bulk of the gains between that move from dow 20,000 to 25,000 5,000 point move, almost 900 points of that is just boeing alone. A stock thats near record highs. Boeing a blistering run. United health Group Contributed 429 points caterpillar stock also on a tear, any record highs, 44407 points points 3m, 400 points and home depot, almost 400 points some stocks have lagged. Check out some of these names. Merck dragged about 27 points off the dow in that time span. General electric, no surprise there, that big drop last year, shaved 82 points off big blue ibm shaved 114 points off. As we talk about whether or not the dow will be driven towards the next milestone, some of these guys will have to pull more weight. Later on in the show, ill tell you about what dow stocks could be the ones that do drive us to the next milestone numbers like President Trump was eluding to back over to you yeah. Im getting a lot of mail because i because of what ive been talking about during this show. That is that people who didnt think this market was going up, they are now saying its criticism that people own the stocks, its not main street its not always a proxy, the stock market, for the underlying economy. I would say when the fed is at zero and asset prices are rising, but we saw the income inequality got worse, but its different at this point. Its a proxy for gdp, for jobs getting for the job market getting good enough to where people can start getting jobs they want. Not parttime jobs start getting raises i hope youre right, but i dont think were there yet. I know you dont, but you didnt think mcdonalds ce work osh ceo would be doing anything. The rally every 1,000 points was the last 1,000 as it happened i hope you werent responsible for anyone who bailed out early. I wouldnt want to have that on my im saying youre now saying this is bleeding over into the real economy the question is how much does it bleed into the real economy . Not bleed in. This is a reflection of whats happening in the real economy. Thats the question my point was, i went back to the 80s if youre young, you sort of have been conditioned to believe the past eight years is normal that 2 is good. These are the best people are telling us its the new normal in the late 70s it was worse. We had 18 Interest Rates. We had oil prices. Suddenly lines around the corner you get a pro private Sector Administration coming in, living through that period, i want to live through another period like that its possible. Let me make this one observation. If you think the market is a reflection of the real economy, okay, and you think about what happened in the last year in the real economy, its very difficult to give, dare i say, the president credit for the real economy in the last year because he only got here in the past year. So your whole argument makes no sense. Thats not true deregulation not only that. Im saying hopefully it will bleed into the economy in the future companies have already factored in this last year they factored in the pro positive pro business. The deregulation, the tax cuts how many times have you said the tax cuts are in the market the question has been have they been in the market i dont think they have been. Lets say they havent been either they are or they arent you have to make some decisions. Either the economy was on a path to be pretty good prior to last november no one is denying that. Or not. No one is denying the global nobody is denying that . Nobody is denying the global any economy is is growing. Not going to down 5,000 for you would be a victory a lot of people thought the tell me what you thought. I know you hang it on other people i didnt argue with you every day for the last i thought the market would struggle in the initial weeks, and then i thought people would sat with you i sat with you every day for the last year. Lets go. Lets bring in lets bring in what was the train argument about leaving the station . What was that about . Not getting on that. When i kept telling you to get on the train you kept saying im not. And i missed the train. That was about the market. Not about where the real economy is lets bring in two economists who can tell us about this Michelle Girard is here, managing director at natwest markets. Jim osullivan is from High Frequency economics. Welcome. We want to hear what you think about the jobs report what are we looking at in the real economy . I do think the economy has gained a lot of momentum i do agree with joe, in the sense that we got more from the tax package than i thought we would get. In terms of details in terms of details, accelerated depreciation and along the lines of the regulatory relief that companies have gotten this year, they also have set the stage for the economy performing much better in 2017 than i would have expected in an uncertain environment. I would have worried economies in particular might have moved to the sidelines to wait and see what would come. That didnt happen i think the passing of the tax plan and its policies, as you talked about, this idea that people said new normal we cant grow better than 2 this i think will shows that you it wasnt structural as much as it was in many ways just bad policies the removal of that, i think, will set the economy on a better growth path. What did think was possible with corporate rate . 25, 26 you were on record thats all we could do, 25, 26 is 21 much better than what you said we were age to do i thought we would land that was more about the political guessing around i know what that was. I would contend this particular plan that weve set up longterm we had larger conversations about this we heard your side. Was do you think, jim, where the economy stands now if you measure by gdp, we picked up a bit. The last year about 2 or so 2. 5 the last year Previous Year was 1. 8. Theres been acceleration. Its not booming by any means, but in this cycle its more than enough to keep the Unemployment Rate coming down the Unemployment Rate is 4. 1 a year ago, 4. 7. The trend will continue to be going down let me ask this question. Some people are saying were hitting the point where good news is going to be bad news if you get down to an Unemployment Rate that falls below 3 , the fed will have to jump in and hike rates four times this year. We wont wait until below 3 . Below 4 perhaps they will tighten four times next year. Does that matter in terms of what that impact has i know youre not a Market Strategist does that slow down the market and potentially the economy . I would think to the extent higher bond yields are part of the story as well, thats got to be some relative negative for the equity market. But ultimately if bond yields are going up, not just the funds rate, because you look at the last year, the funds rate went up 75 basis points, the bond market has not done much that has to be key. In turn, you go to the next step, inflation is key gdp was better than expected, unemployment fell more than expected inflation after going up there 2016 came down in 2017 michelle, lets talk about inflation. Is this the boy who cried wolf where people wait for it, or will we not see it i am if anyone was going to be looking for higher inflation, it would be myself. I think the fed has kept rates too low for too long in general. Even i dont see real risk of inflation overshoot. Consumer Price Inflation is not where easy money is showing itself i think well get firmer wage growth i dont think it will put upward pressure on inflation. I think well get to 2 . I dont see us moving much over that that gets back to the idea that the fed can continue to move gradually. Four times this year sounds like a lot. The fed did just as much, especially if you take into account the change in the Balance Sheet policy theyre moving at that same pace itquity market back thats key on inflation. Without signs of an inflation overshoot. I dont think this market gets worried about the fed taking policy past neutral. It would be a lot to hope for for multiple expansion if you can keep multiples where they are but if earnings if you keep multiples where they are, even if they contract a little bit with earnings then i look at there could be a good reason that rates are at 3 , 4 , there could be a bad reason if they just tighten for no reason, youre at 4 when you should be at 2, thats one thing. Historically, 3 or 4 is conducive to Business Activity we used to say, too, a lot of Times Companies were uncertain when rates were so low what would happen when rates normalized in some ways removing that uncertainty. That might help seeing if the economy can continue to function in an environment where rates are at more normal levels, in some ways that may make companies more willing to bet on future activity being hurry up and do this while you still have low Interest Rates. I didnt read the buffett piece. I saw a news aggregate that buffet said there was years of growth to come i didnt see that you guys have to go, before you do, jobs number today . Continued strength. 210,000 of payrolls. More than enough to keep the Unemployment Rate coming down. Same. 200,000. Hourly earnings will be a touch firmer year over year, 2. 5. You have a combination of healthy job market thats a nice combination. Appreciate it coming up hold on relax. You saw it its drudge. I didnt say i said newsing a gra news aggregation it was in time. Go ahead go knock yourself out take us to break you go. You go for it. Now i know you want to. Okay. Fine. Coming up, President Trump tweeting about the markets and the controversial new book that is shaping up washington axios executive editor mike allen joins us next. Welcome back the publisher of fire and fury, the new book about the Trump White House moved the release date from tuesday to today. The publisher said Unprecedented Demand yesterday called for Early Release date the publisher confirmed receipt of a cease and desist letter and said forget about it, were going with publication of the book saying bring it on President Trump tweeting i authorize zero access to white house. Actually turned him down many times for author of phony book i never spoke to him, book full of lies, misrepresentations and sources that dont exist look at this guys pass and watch what happens to him and sloppy steve sloppy steve being steve bannon. Axios reporting that trump is fielding advice for 2020 strategy joining us for all of this and more is mike allen from axios. Good morning andrew, happy jobs day. Thank you lets break down the distinction between the truths in this book and to the extent that there are misrepresentations, omissions, and or errors. Theres lots of questions, some of this is getting conflated you address that this morning. Thank you it seems like the white house is doing everything it can to sell this book. This is a publishers life long dream to have the president of the United States trying to issue a prior restraint on your book in axios this morning we said the president should see the movie the post. Theres Michael Wolffs methods that people question and specific anecdotes that people have questioned and mind not end up too well in a fact check, but we point out in axios am today is that what michael wolf is good at is capturing some of the broader observations about how this white house works and just as importantly how the staff regards him. So the ecosystem rather than specifics what have we learned a couple things. One is that a lot of the staff, even key Staff Members who you see on tv defending him and promoting him think that hes erratic and that he has been illprepared for the job a couple of Michael Wolffs takeaways with the contradictions that is that the president is convinced of his instincts. But they keep chaipg inging, an likes generals around him but doesnt like being told what to do my question having read the excerpts of this now, a number of people in the white house are quoted in this book saying relatively nasty things about the president. Some of them have come out publicly and said i didnt say those things but there seems to be some ring of truth or general sense that maybe at least privately they have some lesser positive less positive things to say. How is this changing the dynamic in the white house we keep talking about who will come and go over the next six months, now that weve passed a year in the presidency what do you think will happen . So these observations are congruent with what weve heard from

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