Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20180125 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Power Lunch January 25, 2018

Carusocabrera in davos. And she is with the man who just finished up with President Trump squawk joe kernan. Michelle yes, thats right thanks so much tyler i am here with joe wrapped up extensive interview with president know a lot of things you talked about. Give us some of the highlights. Mr. Trump comes to davos. What would be anyones first question i wanted to know here you are coming into the bastion of elitist and everything else. How are you going to sell the american first agenda to the crowd we have here in davos . When i decided to come to davos, i didnt think in terms of elite es or globalist i thought in terms of lots of people who want to invest lots of money and all coming ba can to the United States they are coming back to america. And i thought of it much more in those terms. After i said that i was going, there were massive stories about the elite and the globalists and everything else. Its not about that. Its about coming to america and investing your money, creating jobs, companies coming in. We are setting records every day and every week you see anticipate with 350 billion most people thought 350 million. And i spoke with tim cook. You remember my campaign i used to say i wont consider this great unless anticipapple comes. But so Many Companies are coming in. His a rival herrival here to was like a celebrity these are president s and bi billionaires and he walks into the room and they are taking pictures and so interested. A lot of people excellented on that on the way over i saw Prime Minister trudeau and netanyahu. Someone must be there because you see the crowd. But it is nothing, nothing like is around trump. Almost the waters are almost parting as hes walking through which is crazy. Which is it so ironic, because a lot of the americans complain about him and his agenda. Its part of the phenomena though with everything involved i would say you dont need to be, you know, a trump fan to stop and and want to look. And, yeah, want to look, especially over here i mentioned it to the president , there is optimism here this year almost without exception from every ceo. Yes. And many mr. Point out the Global Growth but just as many are pointing out tax reform and deregulation and not just the ceos from the United States. Its a different feel here in davos. Nervous about trade did you and he talk about that we talked about trade and i was a little surprised this a lot of talk about trade. One of the most pressing issues about corporate america, and listen to this. I like bilateral because when you have a problem you terminate. When you are in many countries like 12, you dont have the same option but somebody asked me the other day would i do ttp heres my answer ill give you a big answer i would do ttp if we had a better deal. We had a horrible deal nafta is a horrible deal and i tell stadiums full of people. Are you reopening it . I always say this i would do ttp if we could do a better deal the way the deal was structured was terrible if we do a better deal i would be open to ttp. Thats interesting. Would you are you surprised to hear me say that a little. It was a bad deal. Maybe nafta, maybe not nafta, can you give me any indication which way you are leaning . A lot of the ceos on here, they all seem to acknowledge that its 30 years later, and there is a lot of changes that make a lot of sense but to not abandon the deal. We have a trade deficit with mexico. Right. Mexico. 71 billion a year right. We have a trade deficit with canada of substantial amount of money, i have a number, but we keep arguing i wont tell you its 17 million. We have a trade deficit with canada we have a massive trade deficit with mexico. We have to do something. We cant continue to do this. Are you leaning towards staying in ive always said during the campaign and which youve noticed and said, which i have appreciated, ive full fiduciary a lot of what i said ive only been here a year i maybe have another four years. Well see. We have 71 billion trade deficit with mexico. We have to do something. We cant do that will it be negotiated . We are trying right now with the whole group. I think we have a good chance but well see what happens. So thats the headline of the story of your interview today. He would consider a Multi Lateral trade agreement. Thats a big change. We have a better chance of getting a ttp deal with this guy than with the democratic candidate. Yeah, its amazing. Hillary or bernie sanders. Thats one of the frustrating things to here from all the globalists oh, he pulled out of ttp. It was not going to happen no matter who won the presidency. Sounds like to me im in dave os, a lot of the players are heerks im ready to talk ttp would you be surprised now if there was a reengagement there i dont know but i did think it certainly seemed like bilateral was going to be the way that this president operated but he surprise as lot and you are in davos, you know, we are all feeling global here. When in rome. Exactly arent we all feeling. I think some of the guys in studio have questions for you. Great yeah got to see some of it i guess . Yeah, we watched on internal feed i thought it was very, very interesting. And hes got a very good economic story to tell, it would seem to me, joe. Sometimes it gets obscured by some of the other things some of the rhetoric some of the other coverage here. But pointed out the growth trajectory and he looks ahead to the First Quarter, i guess First Quarter gd pshlp numbers, or ma fourth, and looking for 3 growth which no one i dont think a year ago really expected would be a sustainable number. He thinks it can go even higher. And you still have a lot of people that may have invested interest in this not seeing 3 growth but saying not a single mainstream economist that says its possible given that population isnt growing and too hard to increase productivity. But we had jamie diamond on who said will you please stop talking about bitcoin so much. But what he did say was he put the forehandle on possibility for one of the quarters in 2018. He said possible 4 and i said President Trump that jamie diamond actually said that 4 was possible. I think feds are 3. 4 right now and last quarter was the hurricane quarter still above. So i think people might be under estimating and its not necessarily just donald trump its the United States economy when its unfettered and talk to her. Youve written pages and pages about what can happen when you unleash private sector. He certainly kept coming back to the idea l he said it several times. In parts of the interview that he thought that the deregulation initiatives that hes undertaken. This is big. Have been really critical, maybe heaven bigger than the tax changes that hes made. Tyler, without, almost without exception, people that you wouldnt necessarily well, i guess once Howard Shultz does something makes president look good, we know people are coming around. But almost every ceo has said positive things about tax reform. Even some of the ceos i know did not vote for donald trump. For sure. Hands down. And michelle, as you know, first off, ttp, for people dont know what that is, Trans Pacific partnership, 12 countries, trade deal representing 40 of the global output. They considered that nafta in disguise because it featured canada and mexico, but that component complicated i think michelle for president who has basically said nafta is a bad deal if nafta is a bad deal he would almost have to automatically put the Trans Pacific partnership in that bad deal box as he said he did with joe. Yeah. Brian, remember when people said, you know, talking about china, if you get out of ttp, thats what china wants, puts them in the seat so here he is over here and dealing with china maybe you do drop the ttp card maybe we wont do that and maybe thats a signal to china maybe we are ready to do Multi Lateral day. It is leverage. By the way, joe, did you nicely remind the president that there are some networks that are talking about the stock market every time he tweets that out, no one is mentioning the dow i said mr. President yes, i did. And he loves the network loves to watch in the morning. I think hes, you no he, some of his tv habits have been leaked as well. He might switch around or have a couple of screens. But he mentioned a couple of things that indicated to me hes a viewer from time to time and i requested a tweet for you. Your interview, he better. Well, yeah. Thanks for nothing. You are going out on a limb there with the tweets. It could be dangerous. Actually for the First Time Ever i had some people do it i dont want the aggravation. You dont want the president to tweet the interview yeah, i do, 46 million. Yeah, phil talking about production to the u. S. And got hundreds of thousands of views immediately in the first two minutes. But joe back to trade. Because trump is self proclaimed stock market president does he acknowledge if he pulls out of nafta probably insert some volatility to the market to the down side . I think he probably is aware of some steps that might not be as friendly to the stock market. I think in his mind he thinks that hes pretty important to the stock market in that you remember, brian ross, i dont think hes back on tv yet. Is he . I dont watch that network. Sfanyway, that was the bigget volatility we saw. You were covering it that day. Yeah. About 450 point swing when it looked like there was something preelection on russia. And i dont think thats a totally just humorous to think donald trump might think hes the key man insurance for the stock market here. Well, he has done very important things for the American Business community. Cut taxes and deregulation. Almost 50 from november, from november 8th. And anything thats not flat or down 10 is in the face of all that. You know what we have to do, we have to play our coverage the day before the election. Right and throw a few newspapers. And how bad it was going to be. I remember the people by name because one person called me a jack ast. Shocked. That was the First Time Ever. Not. Probably. Good job, dude. Thanks for staying late for us. Thank you youre welcome my pleasure. Tlanghanks. You can see his entire interview with the president , that is tomorrow on squawk box 6 00 a. M. Eastern time see the whole thing the interview with the president. Lets get more reaction to interview with the president joining us now economic reporter steve, we dont know a whole lot. Well see the rest of it tomorrow morning we have read the transcript so we know but we dont want to take too much of the thunder the Trans Pacific partnership, obscure, got a lot of attention, i doubt most of our viewers have read the eight or nine hundred pages of it. Do you believe ultimately it would be a positive, maybe a lever against chinas growing power . Yeah, they do and the thing they also believe, which is kind of the general view there in davos when it comes to why do we like big trade deals and not bilateral . Because the evidence shows that the size of the network multiplies the gains to those who are in it. If you have two guys with a deal, its a good thing. If there is four guys with a deal, then you multiply those possibilities. And so the idea of Bigger Networks is better id say this advisedly because im not sure that the president is this calculating when it comes to these issues, it certainly has a feel of being off the cuff but that said, there is a possibility here of a nixon goes to china when it comes to the trade issue. Here is a guy who has governed way from the other side on this free trade issue and has really stunned the world and the global consensus on trade now, that gives him a certain authority, gives him a certain checkbook with which to come to the deal and say, you know what, im willing to give on xy and z. Again, i dont know if its fair to say that the president is as calculating and thinking about it but the idea that ttp could be back on the table in a way thats done from a person that is seen as more protectionist is pro tensionally, can i put under quotes, underline that word, potentially good news. Ryan, your reaction to is that are bilateral deals the way well see this administration go and when i was listening to him talk about nafta, he ended that quote that we just ran on a rather more positive note. It was like well see. We are trying to save it and renegotiate it rather than scrap it so it seemed like maybe a greater openness on both ttp and nafta to Multi Lateral. Well, certainly everything that weve heard during the Trump Presidency has suggested that he would be seeking to pursue those bilateral deals and indeed even this morning he met with theresa may, u. K. Prime minister and talked about a trade deal between those two countries. So these comments do surprise me but what doesnt surprise me is trump is taking conciliatory tone with davos. He knows they disagree with him on other issues. They are quite fond of his domestic agenda in terms of the tax cuts and deregulation. So i think hes trying to be conciliatory on the trade. And wasnt helped by Steve Mnuchin comments from yesterday when the u. S. Might be in favor of weak dollar and that got International Push back. So i think trump is trying to diffuse that but whether any policy paradigm shift comes from it remains to be seen, i think. I think there is one other thing worth mentioning which is not this year, but next year or the year after, if the trump idea here that massively cutting the economy, cutting taxes leads to higher growth in the u. S. Economy and the world, it is going to dramatically upset the davos consensus over there. Not that they dont think deregulation is good or that the idea of lower taxes can be better but if he makes his change and ends up having the effects that are planned, its going to change a lot of minds out there about the right direction. What they can do in their own countries . In terms of what right thing to do in Economic Convention and their own countries. Ryan, we know what is it real economically and what is real when it comes to our viewers pocket books can be Different Things your nation leaving the european union, right, they agreed germany is starting to see more protectionism in its own borders. Now the ttp did get approved by 11 other countries in it, our congress pointed out rejected it out of hand. But you have to admit that trade, while in a textbook sounds good and is probably good for a lot of people, there is a view among the british, many people in america, perhaps some germans, maybe some chinese, maybe some japanese, that it is not good for them personally, because capital flows towards the cost is the least and jobs may get lost right . That is a part of the trump mo, which is, yeah, in principle its good but you lost your job and im going to stick up for you. Simply as that. I would push back a little bit on experience of the u. K because both sides in referendum was arguing over who was more pro free trade and a lot was exiting that but you are right a big part of the trump message there have been losers from open dploe ball trade. This has been something thats been part of the u. K. U. S. Political debate since ross perot run for president. And undoubtedly those views do proliferate in particular areas of the country while i think the trump agenda is pushing on in terms of trying to bring investment back to the u. S. , lowering Corporate Tax rates and deregulating, hes trying to show as well, yes, while trade and migration policy can affect growth, there are many more tools in governments locker that can affect growth in ha much more dramatic way. And i think if trump can get that growth rate upto 3, 4 over the coming years, that it really will upset the consensus who believe that trade is the key and overwhelming issue of his presidency. All right gentlemen, thank you very much ryan, steve, appreciate it. American Airlines Taking a stock lower today with other airlines as worry a price war could be joipg now joining us from fort worth texas. Phil. Reporter let me bring in chairman of the American Airlines you know the concern out there that we could see a huge push to add capacity because your competit competitor united said they are adding moreover the next three years. Whats your take first of all, thanks for coming out here. A lot of your colleagues are in davos and you are hanging out here we appreciate that first off, i can speak about our growth but i know this industry has been tran formed as we look at Growth Opportunities we see some. But always within our strategic competitive assets our hub system thats whats happened in this transformation is youve seen industry mature to the point while still intensely competitive, you have three global hub carriers, and lower cost that provide competition. But those of us hub carriers, when our growth comes in and out of our hubs, it creates productivity i think in the old days they see growth, they say here comes fare wars this tends to be better productivity to our customers. But certain markets where united has said we did the ground to delta, and well go back in. And Natural Inclination for investors will say at least margins will get squeezed, because when they come back they have to win over customers how confident are you that your margins will not be squeezed certainly some markets they have growth in their hubs. That make sense in some of those markets. It means those markets are still profitable for us. But there are markets like that for us well add some theyll add some some of the things that happens as it matures. But maturity around what has become a much more rational sort of structure in terms of longterm competitiveness. And you remember the old days. I do. America west, u. S. Air where you had so many Different Airlines where fare wars could break out. Are you fairly confident we wont see a fare war again, who knows whats going to happen with faers what i know is unlike the past, which i think our investors are worried about, when you saw growth in excess of demand growth, what that was was airlines

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