Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20180216 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box February 16, 2018

Higher again, it has been a sharp rebound from the lows. Futures up 90 on the dow 36 on the nasdaq just under 10 on the s p 500 dow closed above 25,000 again yesterday. How about asia a check on the overnight session. China is closed, right, for the holiday . Yes, the Lunar New Year the Chinese Exchange was closed except for the nikkei you dont believe it until you read it in the teleprompter. I would believe him before the teleprompter did you do fast moneyfast mont night . No, there is no fast money. I knew that i watch around the clock. I do. European equities to check on those as well. Lets see how we are set up for the session here there is the nikkei in japan that was the lone market in asia great across the board for europe strongest gains on the periphery. Italy and spain up about. 08 the tenyear yield, just under 2. 9 there, you can see the rest. 30year, 3. 14, the fiveyear, 2. 639 we were eigall waiting for tt three and didnt get it. It went the other way. You listen to rick. He will tell you in the past when we thought we were getting close again, it would go around. This time, it is not going to happen it is not coming back. Are you sure . What about 2. 6 . I dont know if we have the chart. You look at the economic surprise index it is rolling over which is the most predictable . It always does. It feels like we have to slide back down before we can start to decline what happens if jay powell is the slightest bit dovish everyone thinks he is going to be this hawk he is the first person that talks about a loweryielding tenure no one has spoken about it. All that talk about how they are watching Market Conditions that is a dovish thing to say. During the hours of preparation of work for todays show, we are having a manulife economist on on the 8th. You might be gone. He is saying that the gdp may have a one handle. For the First Quarter that would put us back. I would say that even though the comments of the fed officials were kind of giving a nod to the market, this is probably the first rebound from a sharp pullback where the expectations of what the fed were going to do did not get completely downgraded. We are still talking 3 or 4, 2. 5 or 3 he says they fixed the First Quarter. The fed has never changed anything they do based on what i told them. They actually started looking differently. There is some giveback from the hurricane and trade sblchlt did did. U. S. Regulators blocking the sale of the Chicago Stock Exchange to a group of chinese businessmen. They signed off on the bacon deal keep the ex chachange the move by the s. E. C. Ends a twoyear battle. The deal was proposed in 2016 and would have been worth an estimated 25 million. Japans government has rea pointed kuroda for another five dr yee fiveyear term for the governor. They appointed Deputy Governor easing advocate. On todays economic agenda, january Housing Starts and then Building Permits are out at 8 30 eastern a. M. Along with import prices at 10 00 a. M. , as for earnings, look for results from cocacola, kraftheinz, Campbell Soup and deere. Allianzs Fourth Quarter profit fell. The results came in shy of forecasts. On a positive note, they say pimco posted inflow for a sixth straight quarter walmart is in talks to buy a more nan 40 stake in Indian Flipkart this could value flipcart, an amazon rival, at more than 12 billion. Roach is buying cancer startup flatiron for just under 2 billion. Flatiron is backed by alphabet and taps into multiple data points in cancer cases to choose the best treatments. It stores billing data and doctors notes lets get to mike santoli now. The market has passed whatever tests we have had since that selloff we are three weeks from the alltime high. Two weeks before the big gut check started with the inflation scare, the market has been checking off a lot of things and responded to oversold conditions the s p 500 has been up more than five percent. We are at a point where i think the s p 500 is back up into a zone where it would be pretty logical for it to stall out. A lot of people focused on this area for a few reasons it is pretty close to the year to date flat level it is right at last wednesdays high a 50day average is here essentially, if the marquettekes looking for an excuse, stock valuations relative to bond yields have never been higher except for january of this year. Are we going to come to terms that we have something close to a 3 tenyear yield paying more for stocks and allow earnings to come through later in the year and make the market slightly cheaper . Thats bwhat we have to see. Volatility, it has been doing the right things it is below 20 right now you have to see that normalize more before you can essentially say this scare was over. If we keep rallying, we are going to talk about kelly clark son. Remember, the Kelly Clarkson rally. I said we have one punch down and then it gets rid of the complacency and we ral ly back up it is what doesnt kill you makes you stronger you are the first one to talk about Kelly Clarkson what doesnt kill you, make you stronger watch the breadth of the market. Some people are quibbling. This is not as quite as broad as the rally in january the fear is that the cta accounts and these risk accounts took over and they sold the market off, worried about the sniff of inflation and the tenyear they are responsible for rallying the market back so that could be the monkey in the they cut back and jump back she has a song. Thats one of the oldest, best known songs what doesnt kill you makes you stronger. She is fantastic. Thats her most wellknown song. What about the guy that does the dr. Pepper commercial . I dont know who that is. Is that the American Idol guy . Yes steve brasso is our guest host for the hour. What do you think is going on with the market . How seriously do we need to take inflation concerns a few of these hedge funds did get caught in the vol trade. So for the nearterm, i think that trade continues to unwind the 3 lid is on the tenyear. You think it is a lid yes over my 25 years on the street, you continue to see technology and other parts of the economy temper inflation fierce. So you would be a buyer i would flow Health Care Inflation has not been that high lately. It is such a munhuge part ofe economy. The whiff of that crosses all through health care. You dont think we are going to get another hot wage number cpi is not going to keep going up i think we are going to get another hot number i think there is going to be a lid on that tenyear we have been calling for a 4 tenyear for 15 years. At some point, it is going to go a little higher. I dont see that part of the economy getting the 3. 5 yield this year. I dont see it you start to ask if you need it to be truly an inflation story for yields to go up. Everybody talking about the supply demand with the fed tapering back and big new issuance when you look at cpi, a lot of that, everyone talked about apparel. It is a seasonality issue with supply issues. When you look at Energy Aspect of it, oil, where it spiked higher and then immediately, while we are counting the chips, it was already down 9 and it is rallying back now. These are transitory events. We are seeing a better economy and better job creation. There is going to be some Wage Inflation. It appears that the macro factors will overtake the micro factors. Technology is going to invade our entire life. It already has the largest parts of the economy, that will be tempered going forward. How come we are not talking about a Corporate Tax rate that went from 35 . That was the main thing we were all discussing 35 to 25 back to 1940s level. What kind of a tailwind is that . It is a good tailwind we are yet to see what it means for the economy. We have yet to see massive hiring we have yet to see that reflected in what the corporations are doing with it you are using way fewer workers to get way more productivity they have made the point that companies will invest tax savings into lower prices. There is some evidence that is happening in the Retail Sector that goes back to what you are saying maybe even Something Like this massive, st massive tax cut keeps a lid on inflation. In davos, we kept bugging them, what if it gets competed away exactly you dont simas sieee massive h. You are going to see wage increase and people get better jobs the thing that bothered me, that finally occurred to me, we have been trying to do this Corporate Tax reform for 30 years. The complaint that is we are doing it at the wrong time because the economy is already at a peek. The economy is doing okay. You finally have a chance to do it and you dont do it for the longterm. I totally agree what were we talking about 12 months ago about Corporate Tax reform now, it is a matter of, wait a second we were talk about longterm reform that made a lot of sense and still does now, it is 1 trillion the criticism is that it is keynesian from the people that love keynesian they just want to throw money in there. When the economy is running hot, you are supposed to pull it back we have gdp that is running higher i dont want to speak for the administration any were trying to say, we have been caught up in this anemic growth globally. Global growth has been ratcheting up but the United States growth hasnt been. Try it. Turn it up to 11 and see what happens. Thats why it has been interesting. I dont know your view on this we have talked about rates going up the dollar is so low the dollar index is at a fouryear low. Thats a little bit weird. You would think the dollar should be rallying, because Interest Rates are going up. What does that say to you . I have a thought on that. You are seeing a lot of money flowing into the u. S. Markets. I think this tax reform and what we are seeing in our temperatures, there is a lot more view that we are still the best economy, the best growth economy, the most capital formation. The number of Companies Going public will explode at the end of the year. I think that is bespeaking what the world is seeing. We are still the hub of the financial markets. I can give you 13 reasons why it should be really strong right now. Instead, i dont know if that weakness goes back to what we are talking about, the deficit issue. We also have a tenyear arguing whether it is going to be three or not. Germany and japans tenyear, look whats going on there the flip side of the coin t mark, thanks for joining us. Do you think the Country Singer is a bigger deal . It was not constantine marolis in the dr. Pepper. Can you wait until we go to break . Meanwhile, constantine marolis was nominated for a tony for rock ofages. Coming up, a look at the darkest parts of the global seafood trade. Between the ocean and the grocery seafood counter, there is a brutal reality that includes murder and slavery. Thats cnbcs special report that sounds horrible thats next. Mom, dad, can we talk . Sure. Whats up son . I cant be your it guy anymore. What . You guys have xfinity. You can do this. Whats a good wifi password, mom . You still have to visit us. I will. No. Make that the password you stillohave toovisit us. Thats a good one. [ chuckles ] seems a bit long, but okay. Set a memorable wifi password with xfinity my account. One more way comcast is working to fit into your life, not the other way around. Deere just reporting, the heavy equipmentmaker, posted numbers, quarterly profit of 1. 31, beating estimates by 11 . Deere also has raised its full year forecast due to the effects of tax reform and stronger demand in key markets. The average american consumes about 15 pounds of seafood every year a new cnbc documentary finds the crime from slavery to murder is often part of that menu. Our fed kemp joins us from singapore with more. Most americans would be surprised to know that 90 of the seafood that they consume is imported they would also be pretty surprised to know how rough a business that can be for the fishermen out there who are catching their dinner. Workers may earn just 10 a day. That keeps prices cheap for us it is tough, dangerous work. The industry has an even uglier side, slavery. Human Rights Groups say forced labor in the fishing industry is widespread this boat captain says it is Common Knowledge translator sometimes they force people to go to the boats and my boat comes ashore every day and people have to be willing to work. Where they do something to anger the captain or fail to perform, they are killed and thrown overboard most americans would be surprised to know that about a quarter of the wild caught seafood in the United States that we consume is in some way illegal. It is something that conscientious Consumers Want to know something about if it is illegal, ted, i wonder i didnt know that i understand the conditions can be pretty bad. They are going to have to do more to crack down on the supplier, right . Illegal can mean a lot of things it can mean slavery, something literally that brutal. It can mean using illegal methods to capture fish. We have gotten so good at capturing fish that the fish stocks cant keep up other times, it can mean that you have Illegal Fishing boats sort of trespassing on the waters of other countries and literally going in and stealing their economic livelihood, their catch. Ted kemp, watching the cnbc document tomorrow night oceans of crime. You had to tell us on a lent friday a lot of good options. I was raised catholic im now episcopal. It seems easier. If you can actually get in with a lower bar . Yes my uncle was a priest, a great guy. Dont look at me like that coming up, manufacturing in america is on the rise the ceo of Emerson Electric joins us he has a read on the economy as we head to break, a look at yesterdays s p 500 winners and losers each day our planet awakens with signs of opportunity. But with opportunity comes risk. And to manage this risk, the world turns to cme group. We help farmers lock in future prices, banks manage Interest Rate changes and airlines hedge fuel costs. 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At cognizant, were helping todays leading banks make better lending decisions with new sources of data so, multiply that by her followers, speaking engagements, work experience. Credit history. That more accurately assess a business chances of success. This is a good investment. Shes a good investment. Get ready, because were helping leading companies see it and see it throughwith digital. If you missed the show earlier, the song is for joe good morning, u. S. Equity futures. Last check, the dow was up about 100 points we have ten for the s p and 36 for the nasdaq up. We are watching the price for bitcoin, which fell back below 10 k after yesterdays rally it is still up 13 in the past week we have been talking tax cuts earlier. Now, we have got some guys that might actually know something about the effects and regulatory relief, whether it has boosted confidence in manufacturing. Lets bring in jay timmons, president and ceo of the National Association of manufacturers. I can imagine you are going to say it is good i want you to temper it. Pretend you are not totally vested in it you, david farr, Emerson Electric ceo i want you guys to go off. We still have so many sceptics you guys are biased, obviously can we get an analysis of what it has done and what you think the longterm effect will be absolutely. Dave has asked all of our 14,000 members to give some input on what they expect to do with the benefits of tax cuts it is not just tax cuts from last year. It is also the regulatory relief we have seen over the last 14 months we have story after story of manufacturers who are planning to invest, who are planning to hire, to raise wages and benefits the news has all been good i have not heard any negative sentiment. When you do the numbers, it is a small percent you have a whole side of the aisle calling it crumbs. I dont think they are in touch. The wind shifted back to manufacturers starting last summer as we started debating around regulations he is really focused on trying to make manufacturing a better place this is the first time people in my industry see an incentive to invest. We have not had incentives to invest we have had incentives to invest outside of america, joe. Thats the big issue we have someone that cares about American Manufacturing you said president clinton. You meant bill the meant the other one. There but for the grace that almost happened kidding. Fair and balanced. If you look at the cusp, they are starting to invest it is a service economy, farming, agriculture, never coming back. It is not important. There are 40,000 people in the United States in manufacturing. Manufacturing is great. We should make things here we can just because of labor and the difference in what costs are in different parts of the world doesnt mean it cant come

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