Weak in the session. Joining us is josh brown welcome back. Good to be here are you also in celebration mode after jay powell . Im also in celebration mode. We got all but a promise of a rate cut i think in july. Theyre going to do it. I said earlier, he foamed the runway for what ithink the market knew he was going to do the thing is, i dont think its necessary, but i also dont think its harmful a 25 basis point rate cut most likely, the best example of Something Like this, that i can think of from recent history is 1995 you had a new alltime high in the stock market the day they did the cut, but it was a single cut. And a lot of the reason for that, they had done a surprise rate hike in 1994, which kind of crushed the bond market, people were shocked i think what the 1995 single cut was about was taking some of the pressure off from that, maybe also like a mea culpa, we didnt need to do that that maybe thats what this is most like, and it would be likely we make a new stock market high. It would be ironic and people would look at that and laugh but i dont think its the end of the world. Lets get to jay powells congressional testimony. There was one word that kept coming up throughout the morning rj uncertainties about the outlook. Greater uncertainty. A bit of the uncertainty uncertainty around trade tensions uncertainty. The uncertainty, there could qu lot of uncertainty around trade policy that uncertainty, i think it would remove uncertainty it would be a lot of uncertainty. Where uncertainty showing up when businesses become uncertain, trade possibly and also uncertainty about Global Growth were concerned about uncertainties and other factors. The man has a lot of uncertainties in the outlook we picked it not just to show fed speak is important it used to be patient we would count the number of times. It shows their posture now, emphasizing the risk, the uncertainties that would lead them to cut. I want to say one thing, the ludicrousness of the uncertainty. There is always uncertainty. The difference is sometimes participants exhibit uncertainties and sometimes they dont. How certain were things on september 10, 2001, how certain were things in the year 1999 everyone was certain it would be great. Weve had uncertainty for ten years and thats extended the cycle. We havent had a market bubble because people have been pessimistic all the way up so you want uncertainty, its not a negative hes citing foreign markets a lot in his commentary. Hes not wrong, pmis in germany and whatever, heres the thing, in the history of the United States, we have never one time imported a recession from a foreign country, not even in the late 1990s when the ruble blew up and latin america blew up we didnt import a recession then, were not going to import a recession now because automanufacturing numbers coming out of germany arent what you would like them to be. That is not a great reason, in my view, to be like we have to be vigilant about recession. But in 2008, when the euro went into recession, so did the u. S. We caused it. The point is, the United States i think the trade factor the United States doesnt bring it in from afar. If we have a recession, its home grown. What else did powell reveal today . Steve leaseman has the takeaway. Mike santolli has more and phil lebo is could have r covering two transportation stories. Risks have intensified after the june meeting and many members believe that aadditional accommodation could be warranted if that uncertainty continued. We know there was a debate during the meeting about the arguments over a rate cut in the near term. Some officials believed it could be warranted if it cushioned the economy from future shocks others felt it necessary to shore up expectations. We know the fed decided to hold its fire to wait for more information. What we heard from jay powell today is that uncertainty did indeed persist back to you. Lets bring in steve for more on todays testimony and how the market is reacting did he go farther than you expected in emphasizing the r k risks out there and hinting at a rate cut. Think he went beyond hinting. Remember when he was asking do these things bode for lower rates and he said yes. I think he went all the way. Thats further than i thought. I thought the likely scenario would be powell clawing back a little bit of flexibility for the fed not to act if that was the thought he pushed him further down the road in terms of bringing them back in terms of the outlook for rates. The question now, does the fed go further than the july rate cut . I think thats where the market is concentrating its thinking on right now. Sarah, you left out, theres the possibility of rate cuts 73 for september, forget october. But 56 chance of a third rate cut come december, which is higher than it was before powell began speaking sarah, excellent job on the uncertainty. You left out one which is the star chart of the day. The trade policy uncertainty chart that made, i dont know, three or four references today this is a count of the headlines in the monetary report on friday, and we recreated so people could see it. This is a part thats animating the fed right now. The uncertainty is higher than it was last year. Steve,i dont know if you heard the discussion earlier with josh, but regardless of whether or not the situation around the rest of the world has gotten worse in the last couple of weeks, do you think the fed chair is leaning on it as an excuse in a little more pronounced way than he has done before definitely. I think he definitely raised the concern about the Global Economic weakness. And even was more downbeat about the u. S. Economy he really just sort of nodded to the good things and stared in focus the bad things he was acsense waiting the negative i think is a better way to put it. Even this idea, remember a couple months ago, inflationwa transitory, thats out the window now its a problem the fed needs to address and likely through Monetary Policy at the end of this month. The major averages have hit alltime highs in the session today. Lets send it to mike. Thats the first dashboard which is millennials need attention, talking about 1000 point increments in the s p. And lacking initiative nap time soon . Volatility summer months well see how that goes from here now that were past the first on day of jay powells testimony. And saving up for marriage, some cash m a stuff millennials, if you want to go back to the first thousand point mark that was crossed by the s p 500, you need a 22 year chart of the s p. And thats what we have right here this was the first time we got to 1000, early february of 98 you see it was not an impediment, we powered past that until we got to the asian financial, russian financial y crisis in 1998 we first hit march of 2000, that was the peak of that market. You see the drop from there. This was 1500, again about 1550 or so in the peak of the 2007 bull market. So what you see that cap for seven, eight years and we didnt cross above to a new alltime high until 2013. Heres 2014, this is when we first hit 2000 were up 50 from there. I would point out when we did hit 2000, it marked an area we went sideways for quite a while, a year and a half, two years i did want to show, we didnt close above 3000 yet but this is a good marker how we stepped up this way wanted to show the rate of return from the s p 500 from the different milestones the first time we hit 1,000 this is 1998. 7. 2 total return analyzed here we go, below average longterm returns for 19 years from the march of 2000 high. If you bought the peak in the last bull market and saw the market get cut in half and you waited it out you got 7. 8 return, thats not too bad then, of course, you bought 2000 when we hit it, up more than 10 , 11 annualized because you have a prominent milestone and a big index it doesnt give you a clue whether youre hitting a cap or going to blow through it guys. Is that a lazy millennial theme you have going on today . Whats this. Is that a lazy millennial theme i hadnt thought about it i dont do generational warfare. Let me say one thing about millennials, its a lot of fun to make fun of them, they are better investors than their parents. The millennials who are investing are cost conscious, more likely to contribute to a 401 k there are 73 million of them coming into the workforce right now, more than boomers at the current moment they are good investors. Are they longterm holders . Theyre doing the best they can. They have no choice. Its really, really cool to see that they are behaving in accordance with the way maybe their parents should have, because theres more education now. And the last thing ill say, this is really important if you think about the millennial and their time horizon, theyre going to live longer the other thing is, they invest in a more costeffective way when their parents were their age, the 70s and 80s, it used to cost 5 to buy a stock. People are like theres no way theyll have the same returns, maybe not but it costs way less and maybe that balances out. You might not have as much upside with Interest Rates and how much the markets run but theyre also not going to spend thousands and thousands of dollars on their portfolio the way their dads and moms might be. Mike, thank you for that. We are just below 3000 at the moment, it was crossed earlier in the session, 2992, see if were closing above that the nasdaq is separately on set for its own record close lets get to bertha for that the usual suspects at the nasdaq, tech, tech, tech, chips. Look at the big leaders, western digital. T mobile apple back above 200 were getting quite a recovery rally today. We also have more than 150 new alltime highs including our Parent Company comcast microsoft continues to be one of those big juggernauts and this is a market cap weighted index so microsofts 1 trillion carry a lot of weight. As health care is weak today, we have caredx, the transplant firm getting a boost, another high on the executive order from the Trump Administration on kidney care switching to tesla trading higher today on a new report about ramping up construction at its california factory this was an employee email from the president of tesla and three important points he did say that a production increase is coming also theyre making progress with their china plant but he gave no details in terms of timing or when we might see increased numbers in terms of production this is important for investors when you look at overall deliveries for tesla they have not changed between 360,000 and 400,000 vehicles being delivered this year. Thats why when you look at shares of tesla, it moved up about 2 today, certainly not the type of pop you might see had there been more details within the emails. Tesla bulls, theyre excited any time they see one of these leaks emails portending good news. We want to ask you about the guidance from american airlines. This is raised guidance for q 2 well get the full numbers in a couple weeks it comes down to this, one improved unit revenues as well as margins on the profit side theyre saying pretax profit going down about 185 million because they dont have the 737 max within the fleet. Thats why american is saying they have cancelled more than 7,000 flights in the second quarter. Most of that because they do not have the full complement of Max Airplanes they expected to fly tomorrow morning, the reason were in atlanta, a first on cnbc interview, ed bastian chairman and ceo of delta. Were going to talk about the strong q 2 numbers and their outlook for the second half of this year. Phil, thank you very Much Airlines are up today, josh, but theyve been pretty flat over the last few months its been a tough sector, the transportation sector is tough its tough to figure out what do airlines trade on . Capacity has been good, pricing has been fine. The economy is great the consumer economy is on fire. So what like what even is the catalyst for the Consumer Airlines i dont know that i could figure out the answer i think a lot of traders ignore this industry group. And the transports entirely because so many of these charts were in nomans land, doesnt seem to be a trend they can trade off. Crude oil is up 4. 25 today that used to be negative. They hedge and yeah, youre right its tough to understand what is going to make one of them go up unless were talking about m a rumors thats what alaska trades on. Still to come on closing bell, scott minerd predict d a downturn, well get his thoughts up next, virginia takes the crown as this years top state for business well look at how amazon played into virginias number one ranking. As we head to break, heres a check on the data tracker. Wholesale rising,. 4 in may sales of wholesalers were up. 1 . Missing expectations of a rise of3 . Were back on record high watch heading into the closing bell. Back after a quick break ok ill admit. I didnt keep my place as clean as i would like cuz im way too busy. Whos got the time to chase around down dirt, dust and hair . So now, i use heavy duty swiffer sweeper and dusters. For hardtoreach places, duster makes it easy to clean. It captures dust in one swipe. Ha gotcha and sweeper heavy duty cloths lock away twice as much dirt and dust. It gets stuff deep in the grooves other tools can miss. Yknow what . My place. Is a lot cleaner now. Stop cleaning. Start swiffering. Wanna take your xfi now you can with xfi advantage. Giving you enhanced performance and protection. When devices are connected to your homes wifi, theyre protected. Helping keep outsiders from getting inside. And if someone tries, well let you know. So you can stream, surf and game all you want, with confidence you can get coverage where you need it most. Thats xfi advantage. Make your xfi even better. Upgrade today. Call, click or visit a store. Earlier today scott cohn revealed virginia as americas top state for business he joins us with a look at how virginia landed amazons h2q and did notary je reject it. Our decisions every year, and many small decisions are based on data. Seeings as how we came to the same conclusion amazon did, we thought it would be a good idea to compare notes amazons vp of public policy, one of the point people on the h2q project said they knew they were offering a big prize. We knew it was a huge Economic Development project they didnt anticipate the attention it got. Heres amazon one of the most important organizations in the country, 5 billion, 50,000 people in one place. Youre surprised that got a little bit of attention. We were surprised by the number of locations. 238 bids from across the continent and a lot of hype. So amazon did what it knows best, crunched the numbers. We had lots of data, from external sources, data we gathered and data from the responses that the locations gave to us. On workforce, transportation, education. We knew it was going to be competitive. In crystal city, matthew kelly, saw amazon as a catalyst for his firms plans to develop the millions of square feet of office space it owns. We were offering things they were looking for, in terms of workforce, infrastructure, labor pool. It took a coordinated push by the company and state and local government. We said one of the ways we provide value is by investing in our human capital. Virginias bid was the only one that included a new College Campus next door. What was unique about virginia was the commitment to developing the longterm Talent Pipeline and virginia is also a great place to do business. So they get through all of that analysis and they get to september, a year into the process and they realize, they cant come up with 25,000 people to hire in one place its too much of a task for amazon so thats when they decided to split between virginia and new york when new york got strident in its opposition they said the decision was easy, nixed the new york plant and focussed on virginia by the way, one of the data sources they told us they used was americas top states for business you can see the data that amazon looked at at topstates. Com one more time here in the hour well look at states top improved well see you next hour, scott. 40 minutes to go before the closing bell dow, s p and nasdaq all higher in celebration of jay powell the levels to watch, 2995. 82 just below that for the nasdaq and we are above that tracking for a record close there after the break wall street firms weighing in on netflix as the Company Braces for an exodus of major titles. President trump signing an executive order on Kidney Health today and obamacare is facing a fresh challenge in court well look at the winners and losers when we come back in a couple minutes this is hal. This is hals heart. Its been broken. And put back together. This is also hals heart. And this is hals relief, knowing hes covered. This is hals heart. And its beating better than ever. This is what medicare from Blue Cross Blue Shield does for hal. And with easy access to quality healthcare, imagine what we can do for you. This is the benefit of blue. Dto experiencer gthe luxury you desire on a full line of utility vehicles. At the lexus golden opportunity sales event. Lease the 2019 rx 350 for 389 a month, for 36 months, and well make your first months payment. Experience amazing. Welcome back to closing bell. Time to get word on the street ubs downgrading deere to neutral, saying the stock reflects near term caution and weak demand in the next two quarters golden sacks initiate on air freights saying the sector is favorable longterm and the concerns about digital disrupters are overdone in the near term ever core raiand rosen blatt upgrading on netflix both are catch up upgrades theyre bringing the current price with neutral ratings on the stocks josh we spoke about this stock with you last time you were on. I was looking at this as a trade on a breakout, which has not happened i thought wed see it yesterday i talked about a buy stop limit at the previous resistance, about 385 or so, i think if it gets above you will see the sellers disappear and buyers come in droves that i think will keep youout of the name until you get there. Theyre going to report earnings, no one is looking for an earnings increase, its the revenue increase that matters more, 26 is the consensus neither the earnings or revenue expectation have moved in 30 days its a stalemate, people are set what their expectations are. The negative, talking about losing friends, the Stranger Things numbers were monster theres a fundamental push and pull, so focus on technicals is my message wait for the breakout. Alex sherman on nbc. Com, how the old Media Companies are flexing their muscles now. Pulls the office, at t pulls friend