Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20240714 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box July 14, 2024

In europe, the dax up 1. 5 the cac up 1. 4 . Ibex up by more than 1 . Looking at the treasury yields the tenyear yield cracking 1. 7. Went out on the day at about 1. 71 the tenyear yield now at 1. 675 tom and i were chatting about a blog post from pimco saying u. S. Nominal yields could go negative dont blame the Central Banks, there are also Secular Forces at play that could bring down u. S. Rates. I think thats what happened overnight. It caught a bid because of that blog post. Thats a big story with pimco, the Largest Bond Fund manager in the world saying rates could go negative, rates could go negative. 1. 67 on the tenyear yield. Disney shares are under pressure this morning. The company reporting earnings of 1. 35 a share, missing analyst estimates by 40 cents. Revenue coming in short of forecast disney blaming costs related to the creation of its new streaming service, which we knew would cost something and the integration of foxs entertainment assets which it bought for 71 billion in march the company broke Box Office Records with Avengers Endgame that was offset by xmen dark phoenix which flopped at the box Office Bob Iger addressing the poor performance at fox in an exclusive interview with julia its not more challenging or costly the only thing i have to say there is clearly the results of some of their businesses, notably the studio were disappointing to us. I dont know if you would say more costly, but i guess thats the way to put it. But we knew in buying these assets which are global in nature and large, significant in nature, it would be complex in terms of integration we were undaunted by it. As we were watching this Conference Call go on, we saw the stock come off the afterhours lows, after we saw the pricing for the bundle, 12. 99 for hulu, disney plus and espn i think thats a win. A huge crazy win i dont know if they can keep the price there for too long you will get into margin problems then what happened is then they started talking about it being an investment year they already suspended Share Repurchases. Which will continue suspending Share Repurchases because they plan on spending on this servic service. Im interested in the xmen flop thats a big reason why they did the fox deal is the xmen library he may say hes sanguine about it, im not so sure. Youre view is it was not what they thought it was worth i dont get Box Office Numbers, we talk about Box Office Numbers all the time. Why was it a surprise that the studio would fall short with the flop of xmen if we had a read into how ticket sales were doing . Thats a good question. I want to go back to your ip issue. The larger issue i think of do you spend all this money on that, i think that was an execution issue on that film i think he would tell you that but investors will look at it and say theres more execution risk here than we thought. Theres always execution risk then the question is do the disney managers know how to fix it do they know how to execute in a way that the folks at fox dont . You can argue they can. And they have. But now theres more pressure for the next big huge deadpool or wolverine with wolverine, wolverine is now dead theres challenges 12. 99, which is a deal. Its a steal if youre a family in america, you you would be irresponsible not to buy this package. Hbos package, which is more expensive hbo on your own doesnt make sense. You now officially have boxed in warner media in terms of what that price on hbo max could be you almost have to lower the price of hbo now i could buy for my family a subscription for a year basically the cost of what i could send one of my children to disney kingdom for a day 12 months out, 18 months out, whats the real price . You think this is a promo price . Theres no way, even if you get 90 million homes, theres no way to make the math work at 12. 99. Doesnt add up you need to get that price closer to 20 bucks, probably closer to 24 bucks only analysts ripped apart this analysis if it stays at this price, even if every family in the globe buys the thing, im not sure it works at that price tag for real if theyre able to leverage their content and not spend too much above and beyond what theyre spending for the u. S. Service to Gain International subscribers, maybe they can leverage that. But the other piece of this is theyre no longer selling their own content to platforms they have to keep it here. All the double dipping going on goes away. Now the math doesnt work on a longterm basis. Does it work for a year or two to capture 60 million homes and then go from 12. 99 to 18. 99 or 16. 99 . I think the question is how gradual you can step that up i dont know. In my house i would pay 25 bucks. The content is amazing for the entire family, but especially my three daughters. Youre willing to go double the price . I am, but how do you get to 100 million homes with that price . People start watching their bills when its above 20 bucks a month. If people cut the cord and lets say you get the bundle, you no longer subscribe to espn, how much is an espn on cable, how much is that worth versus 7 bucks a month they pay disney 7 bucks a month . I think cable operators, its been 5, 7 maybe more those are families and homes a huge percentage of those homes dont ever watch it. Right how do you make up for that cord cutting when you buy the package . This is why the numbers have to go up. The disney ceo weighing in on the escalation of the u. S. Trade war with china right now, im obviously not going to take trade war lightly. Were fortunate weve not seen a direct impact on our shanghai business, the theme park nor have we seen an impact on our movies in the marketplace. What happens in terms of movie access longterm i dont know im hopeful that there will not be a change so far weve not seen an impact in china from the trade war that seems to be going on this is what we were talking about yesterday or the day before when we were talking about currency war and there are tools that the Chinese Government could use that we have not seen but could still see. It would impact them if there was a devaluation in the yuan, they would have to convert those admission fees back into dollars ultimately well talk more about disneys quarter later this hour including the pricing details of that streaming service back to news out of china, the central bank taking steps overnight to steady the currency while still trying to keep away from key 71 level eunice yoon joins us it continues to be a wild ride what have you got . Absolutely. Bay sing is sending the signal that if there is a currency car, its not going to be because of china. Today the authorities were intervening and guiding the markets in order to hold the value of the currency up first thing this morning in the mainland Chinese Markets the central bank set what it calls the mid point at 6. 9996 to the u. S. Dollar. Just stronger than 7 and the way the system works here is that the central bank every day sets the value at which traders can buy and sell the currency this is a way in which the authorities here can continue to influence the trading. A lot of currency trader wrs wee talking about reports that Chinese State banks were intervening in the markets not only onshore but offshore in order to support the yuan. This is a typical way in which the government cantry to manag the value of the currency. All of this comes after statements out of the central Bank Including one from the vice governor yesterday who said china believes its responsible to keep the yuan stable. Theres been debate about what motivated china to allow the yuan to weaken past 7 in the first place. I think its becoming clearer and clearer as each day goes by that the authorities here do not want to see dramatic moves they want to make sure they keep a lid on the currency. What is the sense of president xi right now when you read the local papers, when you talk to people on the ground, do they think strong man, hes doing very well with this plitt ply where does he stand. Especially with the protests that continue to be ongoing in hong kong . Yeah. When you look at the state papers, the line is always the same president xi is the strong man he has everything under control, china is china is the leader, hes one of the leaders in the Global Economy when you talk to people more privately talking privately to people on the street, there is a mixed bag of opinions some people are wondering whether or not hes doing the right thing when it comes to the trade war. They are worried about what theyre seeing in the relationship between the u. S. And china, even though there is the strain of nationalism that has been growing what i think is interesting, too, some of the conversations i have privately with some of the academics, a lot of them who end up advising policymakers, including some people on the negotiating people for the chinese. Theyre much more doubtful about what he is doing they are aware a lot of them are aware about whats happening in hong kong, despite the censorship that goes on here theyre not so convinced that his policies are actually the best or that its good to have all the power concentrated in one place . But in terms of what theyll do about it, pretty much no one is going to do anything because they also understand that he has a lot of control and a lot of people disappear here if you end up going against the government. Okay. And i just got blacked out when i said that wow we were just censored are you back . Are you back now no. No are you looking at a monitor off to the left . Yeah. Its black theres a monitor over here which i can watch so that i can see kind of whats going on. We just went black its a sensitive point these days that comment date sit well. It was a fairly moderate position yeah. But, you know, the government here is sensitive about discussion about president xi. So especially if you talk about him staying in power for life. What i thought was interesting is that more recently, all of the coverage about hong kong has been blacked out until two days ago. And were seeing more and more of the violence being shown in the Mainland China i think there might have been just based on that, it looks like theres a change in approach to allowing some people here to see the more violent parts of hong kong because the line out of beijing has been that hong kong has riots, its unruly, and, you know, this is something that the Chinese People need to make sure they keep a lid on. Okay. Eunice yoon, you never are blacked out for us appreciate it. We hope you stay well. We dont want any disappearing acts thank you. Coming up, in times of market turmoil we look to big market thinkers for advice, theres none bigger than ray dalio. He is out with a new investment call related to the trade war with china well show you what he said next. As we head to break, a look at the biggest premarket winners and losers in the dow. Hey im bill slowsky jr. , i live on my own now ive got xfinity, because i like to live life in the fast lane. Unlike my parents. You rambling about xfinity again . Youre so cute when you get excited. Anyways. Ive got their app right here, i can troubleshoot. I can schedule a time for them to call me back, its great you have our number programmed in . Ya i dont even know your phone anymore. Excuse me . what . I dont know your phone number. Aw well. He doesnt know our phone number you have our fax number, obviously. Todays xfinity service. Simple. Easy. Awesome. Ill pass. Welcome back Bridgewater Associates founder ray dalio out with new comments on the china trade war on a video he posted online yesterday. He said investors still have an historic opportunity to buy into china as it opens its markets to foreign investors. He compares to investing in china to investing in the British Empire in the Industrial Revolution i believe that china is a competitor of the United States or chinese businesses will be competitors of american businesses and other businesses around the world and that youre going to therefore you want to be, if youre diversified, you want to have bets on both horses in the race hes had some long debates with us about the role of china the u. S. And what he thinks of as a potential longterm conflict between both countries. To me its interesting that he wants or is encouraging people to invest in china i believe they have a fund in china. They do some work in china already. He has 1 125 billion hes got to diversify. He has to be invested in china the question i would ask him, for the viewers, how do they invest in china . You cant buy the a shares is he suggesting that your viewers go buy the h shares . And how invested is he really . China clearly over the longterm, incomes will go up. I wouldnt bet against it the next 10, 20 years, in the shortterm there will be a lot of messiness for more lets bring in the cio of pence Capital Management and simien himan whso how much cash are you a this point cash and cash equivalent we increased to 10 , 15 . The market goes through these cycles this recent issue has become a catalyst for a battle rhythm that we see of a 5 selloff, it goes down a 20day period of time, 30day period of time, then it recovers we may be in one of those cycles so all of this the headline risk is a catalyst for something that was building up, needing to make an adjustment any way we do cash in front of that. We believe we ought to take advantage of volatility instead of being a victim. Now we look at putting that to work give us the context of what 10 to 15 cash means for you. What will get you to spend that cash well, certainly the current market adjustment we had will put some of it to work normally we get to that level about once every two years we hit an alltime high. As we get to there, we pull some off the table. We use it as dry powder, if you will, as an opportunity to buy things that go on sale i hate it when something goes on sale and we dont have the cash to buy it. Thats when we put that money to work a lot of people say there is an alternative, but that alternative is cash. How do you feel the valuation is now and the selloff we saw followed by that bounce yesterday . We had about a 5 pullback and then Interest Rates coming down, which puts another 5 buffer in the market you have about 10 breathing room versus what we had a couple weeks ago. You have to take the trade war seriously. Not so much because its a rizk in and of itself but because you should have been worried about the market in any event. We only had 1 Earnings Growth this season. Thats enough reason to be defensive. Its not a bad time to look for companies doing more with less companies that are generating good returns on assets and equity with thinner margins. I get seeing yields go down giving you more breathing room on the valuation to the upside, at what point do yields reach a level and you say its signaling something bad a slowdown in the United States, when you couple that with, for instance, the whole entire yield curve in germany going negative last week some people say those are signals of global slowdowns and the risk of recession has ticked up a bit. Theres no question about that but if youre in it for the long run, you have to there is no alternative. When rates are approaching 1 , you have to be long something. Another alternative is high yields spreads widened a bit that corporate curve is not inverted. So the opportunity to get a little yield there is not a terrible idea. We still have High Consumer confidence ism is in expansionary mode. Now that the trade war escalated, the down side escalated, the problemibiliabila down side escalated but also hasnt the upside escalated . Thats right. If you stay invested in more conservative equities and high yield and there is a benign resolution to trade wars, you have some upside one of your top holdings is disney its a stock weve been talking about. Are you inclined to add to your position highway do you feel about the acquisition of fox and how it panned out in earnings when you go through acquisitions, sometimes you get some prizes. It costs more than you expected. The problems they had is a legacy issue we are excited about disney going forward. Probably these things are opportunity for entry. Longterm disney owns the imagination of everybody what do you think the price hag to be on the service i think it has go up. How quickly and what number to get to . I think theyll try to stay competitive. Maybe theyll eventually get to 17, but i think it will take a while to get there theyll find the moment when people make a change well gradually ratchet it up to the point where we see demand pull back and theyll try to price for perfection it will take a while they certainly had the ability to time this out until they get there. Theyre not under pressure its a long game for them. Theyll find the moment and go from there thank you both. Thanks. Coming up, we have a full rundown of the individual stock names that are making big moves ahead of the opening bell. Well talk dating, dieting and drugs. Well do that after the break. Were changing whats possible every single day. , and if you run a business, that means a lot. We create Financing Options for your customers. To help them get the things they love instantly. Our data provides insights into what your shoppers have already bought. So you can offer them what they might consider buying next. Our financial and Tech Solutions are changing whats possible in all sorts of ways. So, how can we change whats possible for you . Time for the executive edge this morning we have stock movers to tell you about in the dating and drug world. Are we combining those things . I dont know well start with dieting is that related to dating . Its all intertwined in some way. Shares of waite watchers, they are surging shares are up 22. 5 this morning. The companys Second Quarter earnings topping forecasts, the stock is still down more than 60 since last september, thats when the Company Announced it was rebranding to ww and shifting focus from dieting to promoting wellness an

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