Today. Hey, josh. Carl, check out apple here. Ripping higher off these headlines. Investors clearly cheering this decision by the Trump Administration to delay tariffs on certain items, include cell phones, until december 15th. And that could havecertainly placed apple in a tough spot, because remember, so many of its products are assembled in china. And millions of chinese working to put together different parts of iphones and ipads so tariffs could have required tim cook and of course, many other american executives to make a tough decision, absorb the tariffs and impact his bottom line. In fact, just this morning, you saw wedbush saying, if apple fully absorbed the tariffs, they think it could reduce 2020 epps by as much as 55 cents or cook alternatively could try to pass along prices to consumers, but that could possibly dent demand for the products wedbush saying it could mean a hit to iphone demand by roughly 8 million iphones in the u. S. Alone. Remember, analysts did also say that cook had other levers he could try to pull here too, like applying to remove his products from the proposed list altogether, shifting Assembly Work from china to other countries like vietnam and india, and asking suppliers to make price concessions regardless, these are all challenging choices causing uncertainty for investors. And theyre now bidding up apple this morning clearly relieved by this latest headline apple suppliers moving higher here, too. Josh, thanks. Well watch that closely joining us on todays rally today, Charles Schwab chief Global Investment strategist, jeffrey linetop and barry bannister. Appreciate the time. Barry, does anything today change, anything meaningfully . And what does it mean that we found some resistance at the 50day yeah, when you think about it, the trade policy weve been seeing is erratic, bordering on impish its hard to put a multiple on that so it pays for the street to be a little bit reserved. We havent really seen a change in the Economic Data we expect Third Quarter to be weak s p earnings to be down on a year over year basis nominal growth of about 4 last quarter 4 dropping to 3. 3 and real growth under 2. So its going to be a soft Third Quarter. The question is, if thats the bottom, how soon do we get interested in a more cyclical bias but the s p looks to us about fairly valued around 2900 or 26,000 dow and jeffrey, your view on that same question carl, you called it an eventful day there have been a lot of eventful days lately if you look back to when trump initially announced these tariffs two weeks ago, the s p 500 has only recovered, even with todays gains, half of that loss back. And thats the same thing thats true around the world, if you look at where japanese stocks or european stocks. Its a very difficult market to place big bets given that a trade, a tweet, any kind of headline can really swing the market quite dramatically the background is one och still broad economic slowdown and that doesnt change yeah, barry, i mean, has fundamentally anything changed it looks to me that the Trump Administration is negotiating with itself. It threatens to put these tariffs on, and then it says its going to delay them theres nothing really solid from the chinese side here so whats an investor to do . Arent you just betting on what signal the Trump Administration is going to send next . Yeah, its partly trade i mean, i understand the negotiating strategy of keeping the other side off balance its particularly effective against totalitarian regimes abroad that are inflexible, even brittle to recession so theyre off balance but the other thing to consider is that futures are still pricing in 60 basis points of the fed easing and the rest of this year. And i dont know i doubt thats going to happen so when they make the adjustment to that, they possibly have the tenyear yield back up and if that happens, theeconom will be seen as slowing down on the ratesensitive, yieldsensitive side so, again, i agree with my compatriot there, that theres a lot of uncertainty and its it argues for this rangebound market to continue yeah, jeffrey, to that point about the fed easing, i mean, the market really seems to have priced in this surety that were going to see some sort of cut come september but you had that cpi reading today and i realize thats not the feds preferred measure. But nonetheless, thyou have thi reading on inflation, and the fact you have this pushback on 10 tariffs and some of the imported goods from china. Does that change the course for the fed, potentially, next month . For all of those things you just mentioned, it does. If the fed is still looking at these moves as insurance measurers against weaker inflation or a broader downturn related to trade policy, well, theres less reason for them to take those actions if, instead, the Economic Data continues to be on the weaker side, then maybe this is more than just insurance rate cuts. Maybe this is really the start of an easing cycle, in which case theyre still in the game i think the stock market thinks these are insurance cuts, the bond market seems to be viewing these as the part of a longerterm easing cycle and the cusp of another global recession in 2020. Hey, barry, we had you on earlier in the year, and you were, i would say, had a contrarian point of view, that the market was overestimating earnings for the year, that the fed was too tight, and now that that thesis has come your way, i just wonder what you make now, and specifically of the curve inversion and whether were paying too much attention, getting sort of fixated on that too much yeah, i agree with the previous statement that the bond and the stock market have come to disagree here i actually would put a little more stock in the stock market i think that Third Quarter will be weak. I think people will be surprised. I mean, we were at minus 5 on s pdefined operating earnings in the Third Quarter the street is about 0 or plus 1. On growth year over year that could put in your typical Third Quarter low. Sell in may, go away, come back after labor day. And some time towards october, we might get a take off. But i question the strength of that take off, because were so dependent on cheap rates, cheap money, low yields, that it limits any backup potential. Plus, were just talking about inflation bottoming and not really takinging o inoff here so, jeffrey, if you look around the globe and all of the geopolitical risks that are out there, some of the other currency dynamics that are happening, argentina, for example, just yesterday. The Economic Growth outlook for other regions of the world, is the u. S. Still the best house on the block, or would you be putting your money into other markets right now . Thats a great question i think the globe is very tightly sinked up here and i think if we are on the cusp of the next great recession, i think all markets are headed lower, including the u. S. But i would say this europe might offer a little bit of shelter from the trade storm. I pointed out a couple of things one, theyre not directly affected by the u. S. china trade tariffs, whether theyre on or off. Germany about tomorrow, to get their Second Quarter gdp number could be slightly negative that suggests fiscal stimulus from germany in the form of tax cuts or other things, that they have the budget to do. And that could spread throughout the euro zone. Something not priced into the markets right now and very low valuations there there could be some upside surprises here, as markets begin to take a look at other ways that economies could face some stimulus in the coming year, not just from the fed or central banks. All right, guys well see. So far, its been a heck of a tuesday. Jeffrey, and barry, well see you soon thanks thanks. Well, getting some breaking data on boeings july orders and deliveries phil lebeau has those numbers from chicago hey, phil. Take a look at shares from boeing not a whole lot of reaction and no surprises in these numbers. We can tell you that boeing had zero new orders for 737 max in the month of july. That means its five straight months going all the way back to march when the plane was grounded that they have logged no new orders for the 737 max they did have 33 commercial orders in the order of july. No max cancellation orders in july, though the backlog still remains at about 4,600 planes boeing delivered 19 commercial airplanes in july. For a point of comparison, july of last year, the company delivered 39 guys, back to you. Phil lebeau, thank you. Shares of boeing are slightly higher right now lets bring in jeffreys boeing analyst. I guess i should say, aerospace and defense analyst, shia kylu whos here with us at post 9 thanks, morgan. Thanks for joining us here. Anything surprising to you in the boeing order numbers this morning . No surprises. Numbers were lite, as expected no new orders, but no cancellations for the max. Do you think the max will come back online before the end of the year . I think thats what were waiting for. I dont know, early q4 seems tight given the certification package that will be submitted to the faa in early september. It seems like a tight timeline to do that i know the markets more broadly are rallying on the fact that some of these potential 10 tariffs on certain goods being imported from china are being pushed back. But in general, when you look at the trade tensions between the two countries right now, weve had a number of folks who have come on our air recently and said, this could really get serious if you see a country like china start canceling boeing aircraft orders is that a really threat . And if so, how big of a threat i think the difference for aerospace, the rest of these shortcycle cyclicals are going to see declines in organic growth for the second half for boeing, youre not going to see that stepping away from the max for a second, china is really important for widebody orders and we havent seen one for quite some time. Its about 10 of boeings wide body deliveries. How important is the defense business for boeing . We dont always talk about it as much, right . But certainly when you see the bank account from all the commercial you know, the commercial piece of boeings business and whats going on with max right now, its about half of revenue in this last quarter. Is that really something that is keeping boeing going or should we look at it from the flip side . The fact that the commercial side of the business so far has been the thing that has kept defense going . Sure, i think defense is actually pretty stable and we heard last week that the three major competitions that boeing won in 2018 are going pretty well txmq25 and a helicopter program, theyre all in first flight or engineering phases at the moment and theyre growing quite well boeing recently bowed out of a competition, a 60 billion Defense Program with northrop as the only bidder at the moment. On the max, mullenberg has raised the prospect of having production cut, right . Wheres the calculus on that right now . If orders keep up this pace . So i think with a potential you could see a potential shutdown if this drags on longer . But what weve heard from suppliers, even a twoweek complete shutdown would have a twomonth potential impact on their numbers, given you might have to have layoffs in the workforce, et cetera, and theres 600 suppliers to keep in mind is that seen as more likely or not i dont think a full shutdown is likely, i think youll keep at that 42 per month and well see what happens in 2020, whether you step up to 72 or 57 a month defense rate you like boeing you have a buy on it but how do you articulate the worstcase scenario here and what percentage likelihood are you putting on that . You say the max will be grounded for another year or so. But what im thinking right now is at 350 or so, its reflecting a 9 Free Cash Flow yield, assuming like the max comes back in january 2020. So i still like it, because i think theres upside to that i think the max will get off the ground what im looking for right now is widebody orders over the next 12 to 18 months to keep the 7 787 and 777 lines going thats important as well we talk about these stocks as exposed to trade and the broader Global Economic slowdown weve been seeing, but defense names, within the sector are seen largely as defensive are there names that you like right now . And there reason to think that those names will continue to rally . I actually think defense is quite appealing, relative to the market theyre trading at a 20 discount according to their history. My favorite names in the group are ellie jackson, managements capital deployment policy im a fan of, and i like the raytheon utx deal. Raytheon is under some pressure given a big competition called the patriot. So were getting into details there, but the stock has come under pressure, but i think big picture win like the raytheon utx merger. And of course, theyre cutting its stake in that company and we had reports from our own leslie picker that pershing square, another major shareholder in united tech exited it so seems like less hurdles to that potential merger happening. Shelia, thank you. Thanks, morgan. Got some more news to get to out of washington. Were going to go back to eamon javers once again. A source familiar is now confirming the treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin did participate in a call with the chinese delegation today and that is the first u. S. Confirmation that weve gotten of the Chinese Ministry of commerce announcement a short time ago, in which they said that the call did take place earlier today between mnuchin, lighthizer and chinese negotiators. Thats an important aspect as we try to build a picture here of what exactly took place between the United States and canada the market really rallying on those joint statements or separate statements that came out very close to each other in time today look at the president s tweet from just about an hour ago. Were not getting ing ting a who transparency from Administration Officials were talking to but the president saying, as usual, china said they were going to be buying big from our Great American farmers so far, they have not done what they said. Maybe this will be different this is part of the difficulty of communication by tweet. We dont have a lot of context here from what the president is talking about. We dont know what he means by saying, maybe this will be different. Is the this hes talking about some sort of agreement between the u. S. And chinese side . Is there an agricultural component to this . We simply dont know at this point. Weve been reaching out to Administration Officials to get some more clarity as to what the president is referring to there. But clearly, there is a dialogue going on a source familiar now confirming that secretary mnuchin did participate in the call that the chinese mentioned many their statement. So more to come as we get more information from u. S. Officials about whether theres been any agreement struck behind the scenes here and what the schedule is of meetings and conversations now Going Forward for the market to expect, carl i will take it, eamon the market certainly reacting to all of that news out of washington this morning. And now lets get a check on casino stocks amid the unrest in hong kong and the trade update Contessa Brewer has that contessa that trade news provides a Silver Lining for these casinos with exposure in macau, because, of course, the people who are frequenting those casinos can depend on growth in the chinese economy. Wynn resorts, up more than 3 . So is mgm resorts. And Las Vegas Sands up 4 on the day. Thats a reversal from what weve seen in these stocks have been pressured by these ongoing protests in hong kong and certainly by the complete shutdown at the airport. Hong kongs a major point of entry for macau. And those macau gaming revenues were surprisingly suppressed in july they were down about 3. 5 . So this will come as good news and sort of something to hope for for the casinos that they could see a traurnd here today, guys and now the dow surging over 500 points at its high veteran trader art cashin joins us next with his take on the rally. S p also up better than 1. 5 nasdaq up nearly 2 well be rig bk. Htac from fidelity. Our daid a visual snapshot of your investments. Key portfolio events. All in one place. Because when its decision time. You need decision tech. Only from fidelity. I felt completely helpless. Trashed online. My entire career and business were in jeopardy. I called reputation defender. They were able to restore my good name. If you are under attack, i recommend calling reputation defender. Vo theres more negativity online than ever. Reputation defender ensures that when people check you out, theyll find more of the truth, not trash. If you have search results that are wrong or unfair, visit reputationdefender. Com or call 18778668555. Hey i live on my own now ive got xfinity, because i like to live life in the fast lane. Unlike my parents. You rambling about xfinity again . Youre so cute when you get excited. Anyways. Ive got their app right here, i can troubleshoot. I can schedule a time for them to call me back, its great you have our number programmed in . Ya i dont even know your phone anymore. Excuse me . what . I dont know your phone number. Aw well. He doesnt know our phone number you have our fax number, obviously. Todays xfinity service. Simple. Easy. Awesome. Ill pass. Obviously a big rally this morning. Stocks surging as the u. S. Says they will delay some planned tariffs on china until september. And its outright removing some items from the list of new tariffs. Joining us, ubs director, art cashin session high up 529. About 200 points off of that how much resistance is there at these levels well, its some resistance, but youve got to keep your eye on the headlines and thats whats going on there are reports that the police have moved in around the airport and that is whats leading to this partial pullback the idea that they were going to delay the tariffs gave people hope that the Christmas Season buying could get started, that people could not be overly rushed you could see the big winners today are things lik