Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20240714 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box July 14, 2024

Asia a new benchmark lending rate, 4. 25 down from 4. 31 that help stocks early in trading and the hang seng and shanghai gave up those gains. Hang seng down by a quarter of a percentage point stocks in japan were higher. The nikkei closed up by just over half a percent. In europe with the early trading taking place youre going to see that at least the three major averages are in the green right now. Germany just barely. Its just above the flat line but the cac is up by a quarter of a percent stocks are weaker in italy and spain and then if you check out the treasury yields here in the United States, this again is what the market has been watching so closely. Those yields lower today the ten year note sitting just below 1. 6 the two year at 1. 518 and the 30 year bond is above 2 but just barely 2. 04 . Home depot reporting 317 a share. Thats above 308 thats what the consensus is however the revenue indicated 30. 984 and its at 30. 8. So the stock is indicated at this point down a little bit the same store sales number was 3 u. S. 3. 1 for the year the company sees same store sales up 4 . There is some they do update the fiscal year guidance but they havent broken it out yet i can go into the press release. Just taking a look. They expect their sales to grow and they expect comps to be up by about 4 . That would be strong growth at 4 . They beat by 9 cents. So 1010 is where the street is for full year. Theyre saying 10. 03 for the whole year maybe they got ahead however the chairman and ceo says theyre encouraged by the momentum that theyre seeing and believe the Current Health of the u. S. Consumer and stable housing environment continue to support the business but that being said, lumber prices declined significantly compared to last year and that does impact their sales growth too. All right at this point that upgrade is guidance for the continued price deflation. Its about time a huge spread. I miss this they also point out tariffs. The price deflation is why theyre upgrading their guidance and also proten shl potential impacts arising from recently announced tariffs. Other news this morning, white house officials denying a Washington Post report that said that the Trump Administration is now considering a payroll tax cut. This comes amid political debate of whether the u. S. Economy is at risk of recession the official told cnbc more tax cuts for the American People are on the table but cutting payroll taxes is not something under consideration at this time, what the other tax cuts might look like. This caught me off guard. You hear Something Like that thats an extreme measure you would expect in times of a downturn not when you hear about the Strong Economy that were seeing. There was talk at one point in terms of a tax cut on the wealthy, this idea of adjusting Capital Gains to inflation and all of that which i think is still on the table the new antitrust warning about facebook from the chairman of the federal trade commission, telling the Financial Times that facebooks plan to integrate instagram and whatsapp could hinder attempts to break up the company. It would be more difficult to have a divestiture after all the eggs are scrambled some even suggested that part of the facebook strategy combining these assets together is to make it harder to ultimately break up plus Mark Zuckerberg suggested it would make the Company Stronger you are giving me a smile. What is that smile simon says. Simon says. You used to play the game, right . Speaking of breaking up big tech, a group of states preparing to move forward with a joint antitrust investigation that would likely focus on Google Facebook and amazon and apple. The effort involving as many as 20 state attorney generals could be launched as soon as next month. Last month the Justice Department launched its own antitrust review. What does simon say . Touch your nose theres an update right now on the trade war and chinas efforts to sure up its new economy. New reforms taking hold overnight. Eunice, what can you tell us the Chinese Central Bank tweaked its Interest Rate policy it is in part because of the trade tensions with the United States so today the peoples bank of china changed its new created a new reference rate by which banks would be able to price loans. This is called the new loan prime rate it was set at 4. 25 and its lower than the benchmark lending rate which has been the guide for banks up until now so the reform makes it cheaper for Chinese Companies to be able to borrow but the fact that it was set lower by 10 basis points has been suggesting to a lot of analysts here that the authorities here are feeling a little bit cautious because it was much more modest than people had expected the officials today said the goal would be to prevent a drop in Mortgage Rates. Theres been a lot of concerned about a build up in heat in the property sector. Its also unclear if the companies will at the end of the day want to borrow so the officials here had said that theyre going to make even greater efforts to work with other Government Agencies to try to allow for more funding for these small and private firms but they also clarify that they do not believe that this latest reform was in anyway a replacement of easing Monetary Policy and so because of that statement theres a lot of people here that are feeling that perhaps the government are preparing for a possible benchmark rate cut a proper cut especially if the Federal Reserve decides to cut as well. Eunice, these changes may be a little less significant than the changes we heard first talked about on saturday those changes helped markets in monday trading maybe thats why we didnt see as much coming in the trading today. I think its because the move was much more modest people were thinking we could see as much as a 45 basis point move so the lending would be a lot more the liquidity would be more available to companies but theres still this question because Interest Rates are still not Market Driven and when Companies Make decisions about borrowing, theyre not really looking at whats happening with Interest Rates as they do in the United States. Instead theyre looking at what the policy is or theyre a favored state owned company in a favored entry. So the decision here is different. So people arent clear as to whether the end of the day these companies are going to borrow. Eunice, thank you, its good to see you. Coming up when we return, a lot more on squawk well get you ready for the opening bell after two volatile weeks of trading take a look at the u. S. Equity futures at this hour were in the green the dow up about 3 points. S p 500 up about 2 points. We have a huge lineup starting in the 7 00 hour, investor ron barron and then continuing at 8 00 with former fed official and secretary of state mike pompeo. Three interviews you do not want to miss. As we head to a break, heres a look at the biggest winners and losers in the dow. Welcome back to squawk box home depot reporting earnings of 3. 17 a share. Above the estimate of 3. 08 however sales failed home depot cutting its full year Sales Guidance due to what its calling declining lumber prices also tariffs can impact u. S. Consumers Going Forward. That stock up about 1 right now. Lets get a quick check on where the markets could be heading as the day progresses joining us for that conversation is the founder and also Portfolio Manager and chief Investment Strategy at capital wealth planning. Michael tyler is also here, chief Investment Officer good morning to both of you. Jeff, im going to start with you. Depending on what newspaper you read on any given day or the past week were either about to fall into a terrible recession and its going to be horrific or we have either extra innings or were in the 6th inning of a baseball game here which one is it . Were in the 6th inning this market, this secular bull market that were in has years left to run and i think that you should be pretty much fully invested here. It was about three weeks ago on your show that i said that the market bottomed yesterday and that was august 5th with a 90 down side meaning 90 of the total volume traded came in on the down side. Since then, you had another 90 down side day on august 14th and had 2 almost 90 upside days thats the way bottoms are made. We think the lows are in the market might be a little bit ahead of itself on a very shortterm trading basis but i think the market is going s substantially higher. You think the market might be ahead of itself . How much ahead of itself and why . You rallied 100 s p points in a very short period of time. So it wouldnt surprise to see the market kind of stall here but i dont think any pull back is going to be that much again i think the lows were in i think they were made on august 5th at 2822. We came back and retested that area twice and you have not been able to make a lower low we think the lows are in and the market may stall here for a few sessions but its eventually headed much higher. Do you agree with jeff there . I dont know about much higher but i think the market is headed higher in the shortterms. Earnings are coming in soft and we have the sign that if its implemented in september that could meaningfully impact the consumer and we could have a fundamental problem. For right now, rising valuations on low Interest Rates, even if earnings are a bit soft, jeff is right, the markets probably have at least a little bit more to go this year. How dependent is that on the fed in terms of rate cuts . What are you expecting the fed probably has one more, maybe two more cuts in front of it this year. I dont think that they are needed from an economic point of view but i think politically i think politically theyre happening whether we like it or not and whether we need it or not but if you look at the basic things that the fed looks at, unemployment, inflation, overall gdp growth theyre checking in just fine. The economy is doing fine right now despite the fears. We have this tug of war and thats maybe a cut might be in order and well see what chairman powell says. Speak to the tariff issue but also to the view that earnings are going to be tougher to come by next year. Well, i have been here for two years that earnings are not going to come in up to expectations and that point of view has been dead wrong earnings while theyre softening a little theyre still going to come in better than most people expect as far as the tariff issue goes, i think it was jp morgan that came out the other day and said they think the average consumer is going to be hit for about 1,000 a year more in terms of purchasing power with when the tariffs go into effect i dont think thats enough to shutdown the consumer. I think the consumer is in really good shape. The banks i talk to says theres been no deterioration in terms of Consumer Credit or consumer loans. I think the economy is not going into recession i think all of this about an inverted curve is nonsense in the long run. Would you buy banks right now. You would you would. I think the financials are cheap and my father used to tell me good things happen to cheap stocks. Were going to leave the conversation there. Just follow up on that. You dont think that youre looking at a situation where the banks are going to have a really tough time because Interest Rates are so low that theres never going to be paydays for banks or you think its so cheap that its worth buying anyway. I think theyre cheap banks dont lose money banks are not losing money on bad loans. Theyre not losing money on bad loans yet. The issue is whether theyre about to lose money on bad loans. Thats the issue i dont see a chance that the economy is dipping into the recession here. Just retires at 69. What . Your demise was greatly exaggerated. You left Raymond James but now you got your own firm. Just clear that up for you you seem fully engaged. I retired from Raymond James and i happen to manage 1. 5 million for capital wealth planning. Did you retire the mustache at the same time is that just consequence or that could come back at any time . We just dont know that was 10 years ago. All right. You never had a mustache. See i know that. I did. Which was so embarrassing i have seen the picture thats kind nothing no. Sort of a patchy beard. A lot of the young folk love the beard. A lot of the millennial types, do you know what i mean . Theres a business here. There is. Anyway, gentlemen, thank you glad to see. He just showed up today thats why i search. Glad to hear. When we come back, a busy morning for media stories, we have an update on the streaming wars next and later well talk Investment Opportunities with ron baron. He will join us at the 7 30 half hour and then hell join us to talk about the fed and the pressure from President Trump also the potential for more rate cuts what you can expect. Mike pompeo joining us later in the show too in the last year, there were three victims of cybercrime every second. When a criminal has your personal information, they can do all sorts of things in your name. 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Usaa took care of her car rental, and getting her car towed. All i had to take care of was making sure that my daughter was ok. If i met another veteran, and they were with another insurance company, i would tell them, you need to join usaa because they have better rates, and better service. Were the gomez family. Were the rivera family. Were the kirby family, and we are usaa members for life. Get your Auto Insurance quote today. Apple is reportedly set to spend some big bucks to create new content for its apple tv plus service, the Financial Times says apple plans to spend more than 6 billion compared to an original budget of 1 billion. The report also says apple looking to launch the service in the next few months ahead of the launch of disneys streaming service and i think the Writers Strike and everything that we were talking about and the way that the big agencies do this stuff now and i cant imagine how this is not the golden age for everyone involved. Golden age for consumers trying to look for content. But 6 billion. Isnt that a lot a 200 million budget for a movie is a lot youre talking about 32 million. So they have already spent by the way, did you watch the trailer . I just saw it. Apparently 250 million for this one called the morning show with Jennifer Aniston. Somebody else. Reese witherspoon is in it. Why would you just mention her and not reese . Theyre similar. Also Steve Carrell is in it its a fabulous cast anyway, we are seeing a clip of it right now about the morning show world it sort of has some its a lot racier than it had expected it to be. Sort of touched on real life kind of thing. Its got some a great guy by the way. Played in too big to fail a few years ago. Are they imlying that interesting things happen on a morning show behind the scenes we have always said that we could do payperview during the commercial breaks. This is it between the commercial breaks. You could do a little but you could not build a complete sitcom around this. You probably could actually. Theyre doing i dont think it has anything to do with it. I think it has to do with the dynamics the chemistry. The chemistry that and all the the drama. I know but i think youre delusional. How about interesting we are . Yeah. Its a case study for a psychologist. Maybe that would be better. But we do. Were happy. What else is on the docket for apple . Do we know theyre going to have this service, its 9. 99. Thats the new number. But only five shows its supposed to be launching which is actually going to be maybe i mean, look, some people manage to subscribe if all the stuff looks as good as this, great but then the question is how do you maintain . Can they be launching new shows every month or two i dont think we know enough about it. We made the point before that media in a very weird na narcisistic way thinks its sbr interesting. I think between reese and Jennifer Aniston and the stars and the writing but you know what i mean. People arent quite as interested in media as we are. I spoke to someone recently thats actually seen some of these episodes and not expecting to be blown away because i think there was a view that s

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