Point. Hang seng was up more and in europe theres active trading taking place with the early hours and youll also see that there are, well, its a bit of a mixed picture. Stocks are slightly weaker across the rest of the continent there. In the treasury yields here in the United States, thats what we continue to watch closely theres questions about what the fed does next and right now the ten year picked up a little bit of steam its 2. 073 . The ten year at 1. 584 so about 1. 5 and then the two year, look at that 1. 558 so no inversion at this point and you are seeing a little bit of gains in the yields. Thats a pretty big move. A quick move back. Right were not following it that closely. And the 30 year is well above 2 i think just psychologically its always like this but we give it to up days not just us but the collective we theres a point we were down 250 but we only ended up down 250. Right. But we did 372 yesterday but its very its the biggest two days of gains you have seen for s p since june. But, you know, i read some of the other financial processes of it, they love this guy, whatever his name is from Merrill Lynch i see another article. I see a different article written by some market watch person almost every day rehashing what this guy is saying. Mike where are we from the highs now . You are saying people are so negative right youre up 5 from the mid august low. People psychologically i think got geared up. Talking about market highs, things are moving out but in stocks to watch this morning, i want to tell you about a blowout quarter. Are you wearing your lulus today . I am. That stock up about 4 . Reported better than expected Second Quarter results in its online and menswear sales jumping 27 . The new ones. I saw the jeans you had yesterday. Its a jeanish material. You wouldnt believe there was a new line because you would have known. He doesnt know what jeggings are. No, i dont. Is that a new line . They look new to me theyre leggings but sure. I dont know what that is. Look up jeggings when you get a chance. Also raising the forecast at the year 195. 75. Take a look at shares. Theyre also soaring this morning. The e Signature CompanySecond Quarter results beating forecasts at nearly 40 jump in subscription revenue that stock up over 10 and shares are down. They didnt provide as an aggressive outlook as in previous quarters. Still the stock up about 130 since june and a founder of the Worlds Largest hedge fund out with a new call on the u. S. Economy slashing the odds of recession from 40 to 25 last month there was a 40 chance now that risk is about 25 and he recommended that the fed cut rates slowly and by small increments rather than rushing to stimulate the economy. Its jobs friday. Forecasters expecting the economy to add 150,000 nonfarm jobs in august thats the number to beat about now. Down from a gain of 164,000 in july but still above the 100,000 a month needed to keep up with growth in the working age population now the Unemployment Rate is expected to hold steady at 3. 7 and of course President Trump tweeting what was the tweet about the numbers . Referencing jim no, referencing jobs. There is a jobs tweet. I cant look at twitter im joe squawk now. Youre being overwhelmed. But ill say the notifications and responses but theres 2,000 of those but theres 30,000 likes so is there really only one out of ten that are so like the other. Its who is following who. You just cant. I think you should get verified maybe thats the only thing that you should look at because they only have three followers. They do. Dont take too much. But i was trying to circle back to dalio. He said 40 the next two years which is more than just this year or next he said 25 the next year. He said the rest of this year and 2020 thats not a full two years or was he just saying i dont see it in the near term. I thought last time when we jumped all over that story it was why are we doing this . He made some money over the long haul. He has but now he thinks maybe we need a Software Upgrade on capitalism because hes got his 20 billion. Lets talk about jobs numbers today. The u. S. Chief economist at S P Global Rating Services kathie is here good morning what do you think is going to happen were looking at 145,000 job gains for the month. A little under. A couple of reasons one is that its the august season you do see seasonality adjustments meaning the kids that had the summer jobs are gone for the summer. Thats a bit of a cut back were looking at the ism readings and the ism manufacturing reading for example. The employment component was weaker and under 50. Manufacturing is not a big part of the economy then you look at the sub component equipment indicator for the ism Services Reading we have a similar number. 144,000. You guys are really playing price is right you try to go a little under. Thats right. Last time i did quite well last month. But we see a similar story the goods sector is not going to generate a lot of jobs were seeing the spill over from global weakness and that was confirmed by the ism report. And thats in line with the moderation in the overall economy. Does that worry you or no if its dramatic that would worry me but the slow down is in line with the slow down in economic growth. Still resilient. Not recessionary at this point and we only need 120,000 per month. What do you make of this call sd he lowering his expectations . I dont think he would pretend its a science right if you invested through yesterday on the premise that we have a 40 chance of going into recession, you killed it everybody got very defensive and even the currency moves were where you would think that this is what we were headed for i dont think it matters if he goes down by 15 if you go from 30 to 40, thats like the analyst from 185 to 186 on a stock your opinions are like everyones opinions. Thats still 60 in a recession, isnt it sure but thats your typical baseline behavior. Theres an article on the science of economics its nothing like physics, chemistry or biology. Whats the broader point he is making . I dont know. That the market is the Global Economy slowed down enough to where if you got a shock or a push maybe you have it the other thing is the Central Banks arent going to have the same power. Its how the markets are acting as well were going the other way. We raised our risk of recession so were at around 30 to 35 . What was the rational there where were you before its been climbing higher. Yeah. But what is your base rate so youre at 30 or 35 . When you mentioned 30, so we saw historically when you look at the risk of recession you needed at any point in time historically 15 would be a risk of recession so we have been climbing above that line. Are people at zero ever its hard to see something could happen. So youre saying the base rate. Just historically you climb higher and higher now where we are, its been a year ago it was 12 to 15 that was our risk and now its double that. Its a trade dispute going in. Historically when you go into a president ial election year, theres often a slow down in capex spending because people are waiting to find out what happens next does that factor in at all its certainly at play there. Were seeing a slow down in cap ex. If you chart it out over 50 or 80 years, what you see is six months prior to an election it really does slow down. I could argue with that but i think its been if you look at it over the past several years its been steady. Thats capital expenditures. The only time we see some what of a stimulus was that. We never even went that high but our view on the recession risks were about 40 for 2020 and we just revised our estimates we had the new rounds coming in place september and october. Thats going to add another drag in 2020 so all together we see the tariff and the uncertainty dragging growth down by abo about. 6 . Otherwise it would be stronger so 1. 6 from 2020. Thats more conservative than what the fed published yesterday. They said that the tariffs and particul particularly uncertainty has been off of growth its paralyzing businesses right now. The uncertainty of what to do. Well leave this part of the conversation right there thanks guys. When we return, big news out of hong kong overnight the city facing a ratings downgrade as protestors plan the fourth straight weekend of demonstrations well take you there live. Oh, wow. You two are going to have such a great trip. Yeah, have fun thanks to you, we will. Aw, stop. This is why voya helps reach todays goals. All while helping you to and through retirement. Um, you guys are just going for a week, right . Yeah thats right. Can you help with these . Oh. Um, were more of the plan, invest and protect kind of help. Sorry, little paws, so. But have fun send a postcard voya. Helping you to and through retirement. But were also a cancer fighting, hiv controlling, joint replacing, and depression relieving company. From the day youre born we never stop taking care of you. Go where my baby lives from tb[ growl ]olle srn good boy. Hey. Hey. You must be stevens phone. Know whos on your network and control who shouldnt be with xfinity xfi. Simple. Easy. Awesome. Some news out of hong kong overnight. From aa plus to aa with a negative outlook they cite on going turmoil from the demonstrations months of conflict and violence are testing the perimeters that governs hong kongs relationship with the mainland. Officials are taking a more public stance on Hong Kong Affairs than at any time since the 1997 hand over this m cos ahead of what is likely to be the 14th straight weekend of protests in the city. In the meantime theyre planning to demonstrate again this weekend. Chris is in hong kong with more on the story good morning or good evening. Good morning. Thats right protests continue in hong kong this still after two days ago the emotions battled executive leader of hong kong announced she is with drawing that extremely controversial extradition bill that sparked these protests more than three months ago so you might be asking yourself shouldnt that be the end of it. Think again. Protestors are telling this government we have more demands including we lost faith in you we want you to step down they also lost faith in this local police force they have accused them of Police Brutality throughout this entire movement they also want the police to let their fellow from tess tos, to let them go. More than 1,000 of them have been arrested and they wanted amnesty for anybody thats been charged throughout the movement. Now a big test is this weekend, look at the airport. Tomorrow theres a protest planned there. Its been a major battleground throughout the movement where protests managed to ground traffic. They havent been able to get there to drop off passengers a lot of flights cancelled and a lot of people missing teheir flights. If you have to go through the airport in hong kong expect delays that is brexit and Political Uncertainty in the u. K becky, what markets, what investors, what voters here in the u. K. Are watching are the likelihood of a central election and possibility that still exists of a no deal brexit at the end of october its been a difficult weak for boris johnson. He lost his governing majority in parliament and lost a member of his party to one of his opponents. He fired 21 rebels and lost four votes in 48 hours and lost his brother that resigned yesterday saying he could no longer reconcile family commitments and the national interest. Hes a minister, an mp now leaving front line politics. He says over the course of the weekend well hear opponents trying to discuss an election. He wants to push through with a brexit deal. If he cant he wants to take the u. K. Out of europe at the end of october. Regardless, a lot of people saying that will be economically damaging and legally chaotic and what the opponent wants to do is see that ruled out and as soon as monday we might get a better sense as to when well see a fresh election that will be very divisive and very heavily focused on brexit. Probably not helping in terms of the negotiations hes trying to do with the eu right now. My guess is theyll just sit back and wait. Absolutely right. He said again and again that by no longer having the option of a no deal brexit he cant hold their feet to the fire. His opponents say thats nonsense you were not even engaged since the last five or six weeks since you took office. The counter parties in those talks say they heard nothing new from the new British Administration that would change their mind over the agreement that was negotiated almost a year ago under johnsons predecessor teresa may. Thank you coming up Sports Betting meets sports bars. That sounds awesome. Drink and gamble. Maybe not so great for how you do were going to tell you about a new partnership between mgm and Buffalo Wild Wings that sounds interesting. Well be right back. This is the age of expression. Everyone has something to say. But in a world full of talking, shouldnt somebody be listening . So. Lets talk. We are edward jones. With one Financial Advisor per office, were built for hearing whats important to you. One to one. Edward jones. Its time for investing to feel individual. Thand find inspiration who win new places. Ct. Leading them to discover were woven together by the moments we share. Everything you need, all in one place. Expedia. Can i get some help. Watch his head. Im so happy. Whatever they went through, they went through together. Welcome guys. Life well planned. See what a Raymond JamesFinancial Advisor can do for you. By the way, shes the it wasnext mozart. G day. As usual we were behind schedule. But sophies enthusiasm cannot be dampened. Not even by a runaway donut. We powered through it in our toyota prius. Because a stars got to shine, no matter what. Its unbelievable what you can do in the prius. Toyota lets go places. As a principal i can tell you this. When one student gets left behind, we all get left behind. This is a problem that affects each and every one of us. Together with ibm, we created a whole new kind of School Called ptech. Within six years, students can graduate with a high school diploma, a college degree, and a pathway to a competitive job. You know whats going up today . My poster. Today, there are more than a hundred thousand ptech students around the world. Its a game changer. Howard schultz is not running for president. My belief in the need to reform our two party system has not waivered but icon colluded that an independent campaign for the white house is not how i can best serve the country at this time well see how that money is going to be used. Hes not going to spend it on sports gambling . Why would he do that . Because its fun. This new jersey thing opened up. Its going to do more than vegas . Let me introduce it. Restaurant chain Buffalo Wild Wings and mgm announcing a deal to bring Sports Betting into restaurants. Joining us the ceo of roar digital. Adam, i dont like going to vegas and doing black jack and stuff but i love watching College Football and if i had 10 on a game, when we do the final four and theres not even money involved. Theres the joint venture between mgm and you have all kinds of smart different ways to take advantage of the new environment that were in. Could you explain that a little . And then well go into Buffalo Wild Wings. Exactly the original intention the coming together of one of the leaders worldwide in Sports Betting and of course mgm resorts which is a premiere Entertainment Company, a leading Entertainment Company in the u. S. Granted access to tens of millions of gamblers and of course the Exceptional Properties we think the combination of those two things is a winning combination to tackle the market opportunity. And Buffalo Wild Wings i guess was you could almost sort of see this coming because you watch their advertising and its a place where theres great wings and ive been there. I like it a lot. Theres the sports that are on. It is and they have new products by the way. But for us its an opportunity to bring out product to many tens of millions of highly engaged. What would it look like id go in and youd go in and have what is already a very entertaining evening with your friends but youll also have access to exclusive offers, special bets, prizes that are brought by raw and bet mgm in venue so were enhancing the in venue experience by increasing the emotional amptitude and creating more of a talking point for a good experience with your buddies. You must need a pretty good digital guide. Theres going to be monitors there to do things online . Were in a world of Second Screen, right . So what we are doing is creating a primary screen and Second Screen experience that actually our Second Screen enhances what youre doing in your first screen as opposed to being a distraction. Second screen being one on the table that i can touch after i eat my Buffalo Wild Wings . And before. At casinos historically, if youre betting on gaming, if you get trashed effectively, youre totally drunk at a casino, they cut you off. Theres people that understand the dynamic. Not just that they dont want you to drive but they dont want you to gamble. How does this work in a much sort of larger context because this would be happening at bars all over the country. So bear in mind, engaging with our product in venue youll have to have gone through your registration process and set up a Payment Method you have to have an account so we know who you are. Right. And we also have very sophisticated digital responsible gaming tools so you can also set timeouts for yourself you can set bet limits for yourself. But you cant identify if theres somebody if you see somebody that seems to be mak