Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20240713 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Closing Bell July 13, 2024

Rosengren. And speaking of the fed, yes, there is more. We have an exclusive interview coming up. Loretta mester is the president of the cleveland fed right after the close. Joining us for the hour is charlie with aerial investments. Was this a big sigh of relief after the data from earlier in the week yeah, you know the markets was really nervous about a recession. Thats the conventional wisdom in the market. Theres a lot of evidence that bulls like me keep pointing to that were not, but you can see when we get even a soso number, the markets react very positively Services Growth is slowing and thats the point of contention right now, is does the manufacturing upset bleed into the consumer . And it does, you have a problem. You had a very strong wage growth its not even the fact that unemployment is going down, its that people feel secure in their job. Its a tight job market. People are not worried about losing their job theyre spending more and were still 70 of consumer economy. If they lose their job, there are about a million that are available. Lets focus in on the big stories were watching here today. Bob pisani has a look at the roller coaster look for stocks and josh lipton is watching bullish signs for apple. Bob, to you first on this very wild week for the market and courtney, the jobs report today was just enough to cool down some, but not all of the recession worries. So the momentum guys are out here we had a slow meltup today the volume spiked at around 11 30 eastern time as the european markets close and as the s p 500passed the earlier highs of the day at 10 00 eastern time, several others late in the afternoon. We kept hitting the highs. You can see those circles. As for the week, quite a wild ride here. Take a look at our cool graphic here thank you, gino for doing this for us 1,200 points down in three days and 800 points rally back in the dow here tuesdays weaker manufacturing numbers sparked a severe twoday selloff and a weaker read on the services sector. That was on thursday a beginnings of oversold combinations calmed things down a bit. And today, guys, it looks like investors got the jobs report that they can live with. Scott, back to you turning now to this jobs number, diana olick joins us now from washington. Hey, diana reporter haey, it was a little short of expectations a solid gain of 136,000 jobs in september. The bigger headline was a drop in the Unemployment Rate to 3. 5 thats the lowest level since 1969 average Hourly Earnings lost a penny, so flat for the month, up 2. 9 year over year, thats weaker than weve seen, those annual gains in the past year. The sector seeing big growth were health care, professional business services, and government retail continues to bleed in clothing and accessories, but did see some nice gains in food and bneverage, and manufacturing which everyones watching given the trade war, lost 2,000 jobs meantime, shares of apple getting a boost today on a bullish report out of japans nikkei josh lipton is in San Francisco with more. Reporter so apple has told suppliers to increase production of its new iphone 11 lineup by as much as 10 or 8 Million Units to meet strongerthanexpected demand. That according to the nikkei citing sources apple declining comment on that report to cnbc, but investors moving in today. That stock now up nearly 60 since its low in early january just this week, ceo tim cook telling reporters that sales of the iphone 11 series are off to a very strong start. In his words, he did not reveal specific sales figures scott, back to you josh lipton, thank you. Over to mike santoli now with todays market dashboard were going to start with apple, calling that shopping the gap. You can see investors coming in, take a longterm perspective on where apple has come from. And Tranquility Base is that what this market is right now forming with this market today well take a look at that. And take the money and run a couple of different cuts at this strong jobs number today and some of the other employment indicators bad moon rising. A measure of policy uncertainty, well see what that could mean Going Forward for the market first, shopping the tenyear chart of apple shares. Its fighting its way back up towards the high that was left about a year ago its about 232 a share. The previous two times, you had a very, very dramatic consequential multiyear top in apple shares the first time was 2012. It took about 23 months to get back from that big decline and early 2015, thats about 21 months this would only be about 12 months i think it was october 3rd of last year, which is when you saw the peak in apple shares i want shows you, i dont think anybody would have felt, left turn say in the first week of january this year that apple would be the stock in the enlarged f. A. A. N. G. Group that would be closest to its former high, but that is the case right now, guys. Well see if the actual news on iphone results and terngs push it that way. Charlie, you would have to say that thats a positive if apple is moving back towards a high, thats got to be a good sign for the overall market. And also a good sign for the consumer, which is a 1,000 purchase, which a lot of people are willing to do. We were a little skeptical that they would be willing to pay 1,000 for a better camera, but they seem to be. You seem so skeptical i missed my chance. Charlie, is this an indication to you that apple an such a poster child for the trade war in so many ways, that theres nothing to fear here with regard to this play at this point . Before we overreact too much to this, this is just the ceo saying hes off to a good start. And we havent seen actual sales numbers. The cycles are getting shorter and shorter. If the next is a dud, it wont turn out to be a great investment, but right now it looks like they have a new hot market boston fed president Eric Rosengren sat down with our own Steve Liesman earlier on the halftime report. Heres his outlook on future rate cuts a week after the slowdown fears and weak data i still have an open mind im going to be quite attentive to whats happening with anything that indicates that the consumer is change thaing theirw joining us now is neil duda, head of u. S. Economics at Renaissance Macro research when you put everything together, i tried to make a list and made columns, the good, the bad, the middle. It seems like its something for everyone its choose your own adventure what do you make of how the fed is looking at this mixed data and what they may be doing i think the die is pretty much cast for a rate cut in october. Todays job number notwithstanding. Todays Market Action notwithstanding. You know, Global Growth remains sluggish, the survey data was weak and and i think the fed has a decision every day when it wax up here are what financial conditions look like do i want to validate the Market Pricing or not and i dont want see the fed basically condoning a tightening of financial conditions by not doing anything so if the market is priced for an october cut, the fed will give them an october cut rosengrens point was also like, look, weve done two cuts. Give it a chance it doesnt happen that you dont cut Interest Rates and then theres this dramatic impact in the economy overnight. We did two, give it some time, lets see where we are whats wrong with that well, its a little bit rich since he wasnt really for those cuts in the first place. So, anyway, i would just say hes backed up by an Unemployment Rate at a 50year low, isnt he . I mean is this an economy that needs more accommodation . I think inflation needs more accommodation. The fed has been persistently running below its 2 target for years mow. At the same time, the Strong Economy is welcome but itses s putting upward prer on the u. S. Dollar and that has a mechanical impact on the feds outlook for inflation. That means core inflation will be maybe 20 or 30 basis points lower a year from now. So i think the fed and look at the unemployment situation, right . You mentioned 3. 5 unemployment. If i told you ten years ago we would have 3. 5 unemployment and wage growth would be 3 , i think you would have laughed me out of the room thats exactly what we have. If i told you the same thing, if i said, weve got all of that and were having a debate over whether the fed should cut Interest Rates for the third time, you would have told me, youre out of your mind. If you told me inflation was below 2 , im not so sure i would. They have a man date their mandate is maximum employment, which they dont know what it is, and inflation is below 2 with expectations for inflation slipping not only in the markets but also in surveybased markets of expectations im not an economic bear i think thats widely known. I think the economy is in a goo place. Dont you think its interesting or potentially dangerous that the market is really counting on the fed for a bailout. When you have bad data, the market rallies isnt that a dangerous proposition to be in item yeah, so weve seen a little change in that dynamic, courtney this week, the market went down on bad economic data, even if it increased the chance of a rate cut. And went up today on decent economic data. I would say were right now in a point the market wants better economy, even at the risk of losing a rate cut, which is what i think, frankly, we should be at yes, were technically below 2 inflation, but barely. Todays wage number was 29 i think were in a very good place with the economy, very good place with inflation. I dont think we should be cutting rates. Interesting i mean, powell earlier today was saying its his job to keep the economy going. He said it in the past to keep the expansion going. Theyre going to cut. And Charlie Evans outed himself a couple of weeks ago when he basically said, he was good with where they were. Which basically through a process of elimination, you know that the board of governors at the fed are all onboard for another cut, between now and the end of the year, which is in their dot plot i agree that the data can help and the fed can give the data and the markets a little bit of more time to align, but as i say, financial conditions are important. And the fed has a choice i mean, powell has said repeatedly that one of the reasons why the markets and the economy are up is because weve priced in a lower path of Interest Rates so that same admission that hes going to follow through on those expectations we should see well get some more thoughts later on, too, when miss mester is sitting here with us, the cleveland fed president. Still ahead, dont miss our exclusive interview with the said cleveland fed president , Loretta Mester well get her take on the jobs number, the feds path Going Forward, with expectations now rising for an october rate cut and up next, salesforce Ceo Marc Benioff giving a warning about the future of capitalism i really strongly believe that capitalism as we know it is dead after the break, well discuss whether Companies Need to rethink their priorities with calstrs chief Investment Officer, chris aleman. Mmm. Good. So ive spent my life developing technology to help the visually impaired. We are so good. We built a guide that uses ibm watson. To help the blind. It is already working in cities like tokyo. My dream is to help millions more people like me. Carl, i appreciate the invite here. As my broker, what am i paying you to manage my money . Its racquetball time. thumps ugh carl, does your firm offer a satisfaction guarantee . Like schwab does. Guarantee . splash carl, can you remind me what youve invested my money in . Its complicated. Are you asking enough questions about the way your wealth is being managed . If not, talk to schwab. A modern approach to wealth management. 45 minutes left to go in this trading week. Communications company avaya is jumping today after announcing a Strategic Partnership with cloud company, ring central. The partnership will accelerate avayas transformation into the cloud. Those are both up more than 25 . Ringcentral up more than 27 and Amusement Park company cedar fair has reportedly rejected a buyout offer from six flags. Six flags had offered cedar fair a 4 billion cash and Stock Offering cedar fair down 3 and six flag shares are up 1 at this point well, salesforce ceo mark benoff speaking at the tech crunch conference yesterday addressing the changing landscape for capitalism i really, strongly believe that capitalism, as we know it, is dead. That were going to see a new kind of capitalism and that new kind of capitalism thats going toe merge is not the Milton Friedman capitalism that its just about making money. And if your orientation is just about making money, i dont think youre going to hang out very long as a ceo or a founder of a company you have to be more than that in today todays world and certainly have to be more than that in San Francisco and certainly have to be more than that in our tech industry, as well lets bring in now chris aleman, the chief Investment Officer at the california state teachers retirement system. The calstrs fund has been changing the way its investing and looking at environmental, social, and governance factors chris, good to see you zp good to see you what did you think about what benioff said i agree with his comments i think it really is about it still is about making money, but its about making money over the longterm, not the shortterm. I agree with Milton Friedmans original statement, he never mentioned time frame and wall street is thinking thats just 91 days. To me, its about 30 years, and thats what salesforce is about. Its about making money over a long time period, which means you have to consider these other factors about e, s, and g. I mean, are you telling me that Going Forward, youre going to be looking at social impact scores, for example, as much as youre looking at analyst ratings and other things when deciding whether to invest in a company . Scott, im telling you, we do that right now when we look at a company, we look at their financial statements, but we also look at, how do they operate . How do they treat their employees . Whats material to the company because not all of these issues are material to certain companies. To somebody like salesforce, you care about how theyve done on the me too issue, you care about how theyre doing with employee turnover, you care about cybersecurity with a firm like that with an oil company, we care about their coor bon emissions, what do they do with their waste . Its different factors, but if you talk to a credit manager or even talk to charlie as a management adviser, these are longterm factors that you label in we just labeled them today i like you involving our panelists. Well, charlie . So we need to understand the difference between means and ends lets go back to aristotle the means to make profits are things like good relationships with your customers, being a good corporate neighbor, being a Good Environmental neighborhood. But in the end, you have to make profits for your shareholders or none of those groups will do well ask a gm employee how they did with the social responsibility they had when they were losing money. Ask hp today whether it mattered there they were a good Corporate Citizen . So, yes, these are good important means, but you better make money in the end, or theyre going to be finding somebody else to run those assets chris, can you give us any examples of some of the investments youre looking at that would satisfy both of these. Longterm profits for your investors, but are also following the ethos that youre buying into at this point for the e, s, and g . I absolutely can. Because most of our investments, particularly longterm, i dont want a company that will cut corners today just to make profit p profit i need them to make that profit over the next 10, 15, and even 20 years if you look at our private equity portfolio and i know a lot of people would say, hey, private equity cuts corners, they dont. They make companies more efficient, which i agree with charlie. Its the means to make profit over the longterm so look at our infrastructure, very longterm capital, adding value to vote, which makes us money. Because at the end of the day, im about making money real estate transactions if you own a property in an office building, it better be leed standard. They want better values and operate more efficiently what if the company was making less money to go back to charl charlies point, but was more socially responsible would that be acceptable to you as an Investment Opportunity would you be willing to sacrifice the companys moneymaking ability because it was doing better socially . Scott, let me turn that around and say, yes, im willing the see them cut their earnings now if it generates profit into the future far too companies are focused in on just the next 91 days and doing things that sacrifice profits three, four, five years from now i need those future profits. I dont need todays profits as much as i need future profits. Youre getting into nuances where people get hung up on. Im not for companies being just for social causes. Companies exist to make money over the longterm and theyve got to do that by providing some good to society otherwise, people arent going to buy their products or invest and give them capital. Chris, the governor gavin newsom did sign this executive order through asking you to favor these green initiatives, or these Green Investments how far do you have to shift your portfolio to make sure youre complying with this executive order . Or are you already there weve been doing things in environmental areas for over a decade actually, probably 16 years now. And i just met this morning with a representative of the Governors Department of finance to talk

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