Threephase deal he calls it substantial. He says its bigger than previous iterations of the deal. And some of the items you mentioned were in it a pledge on currency transparency, a pledge by china to buy up to 50 billion in u. S. Agricultural goods a tariff hike that was planned for october 15th will not be going forward. And the signaling from the trade representative ambassador Robert Lighthizer was that there will be many weeks between the signing of the phase one deal and the december 15th tariff hike or the december 15th consumer facing tariffs to potentially deal with those. Thats going to be important to the market now whats interesting about todays announcement was that up until earlier this woke the president said vehemently that he wanted a big deal he wanted a comprehensive deal and it was not his preference to do a deal in pieces. He was asked that question multiple times this afternoon about why he chose to structure the deal like this given president promises that he had made to the business community, and to china on this front here is what he said because its such a big deal and covers so much territory that doing it in sections and phases is i think really better. Here is how the first section will go. Over the next four to five weeks his top negotiators will be writing the content of this deal then when he and president xi meet at the apex summit in santiago chooil in midnovember there is expected to be a formal signing summit according to the president. He said the second face of negotiations begin immediately after the signing. There will protections for intellectual Property Rights if both this deal and phase two and potentially in a third deal if they find that they cant deal with everything in two phases alone. Of course, the president gets into an election next year where some of the thornier issues get tricky but certainly melissa the president bills this as a win for the economy and the market throughout the day when it learned the contour of the deals believe it was just that. Only leaving one month to sort of come to that phase 2 to prevent the december 15th tranche of tariffs from going into effect. That is correct and i asked the president and vice premier what made this time different . Because the last time the vice premier was in the oval Office President trump said they were four weeks away from a deal, that they were very close. The last phase was planning the summit we and president xi weve been in the position before the the president said a lot has transpired in that time, that this time is different and the vice premier for his part said the difference now is cooperation between the two countries. Well soar esee where that leads us melissa. Thank you, kayla. Kayla tausche at the white house for us we faded when we started to get some of the details here guy what do you make of the rally . What do you think happens on ral judge. Its nurnging President Trump supporters will say this is a great deal this is very positive for both countries. His detractor will be detractor i have no idea i find myself swrp in the middle as usual just looking at the surface it seems as if a lot of what transpired today was in place back in may. I dont know if that matters or not but thats what it appears on the surface, with that said the market liked it. Yes et market saw delay. Maybe people taking profits. But even with that the market traded well. Steve said it a while you cant fade this market into the news it just gives us now though another probably six to nine months of the same conversations we have had the last 18 months. Hold on. Whats the next part of the deal whats going on . So i dont think anything necessarily solved at this disagree op those two. Because we had the chat. I almost sense if this is the deal and phase one we can break it down and i would be critical of phase one because i dont think we needed agp not a lot of the things part of the deal. But selling the news to me on a trade deal right now, this deal, i think this is what you have to do look, be clear, its addition because you have not you not sufficient suddenly lifted all trafrs and there is three tranches you we heard you can lift. But great we dont have more coming onboard but look at the Global Economy based upon whats gone going on. Nothing is changing with that. Do you think confidence will be better on the back of in that to me im not an uber bear here. It was a week where the fed dave you a stealth qe and other things supportive to equities. But if this is the deal. I dont think you could sell it if you have three phases. I think you have to sell it and sort of lighten up into the three phases you have to remember, we have fundamentals coming out. You cant sell it but you have to lighten up into the three phases what does that mean. To tims point he said you could use this as selling opportunity on the headline. Right. But you know you have two other phases of the trade deal coming. You do . There were many people who thought this wasnt even coming, right. Youre assuming were getting to three. There are so many people said we werent getting to phase one, right up until this they said this is a pipe dream, not going to happen. If you do just bear play this out with me lets play. If we get two and three do you wit for two and tree if i tell you we get two and three do you sell the market. When when are we getting two and three. As long as its out there its the same thing guy repeated that ive said for so long you cant short the market in a face of a potential trade deal, even though how about this, the odds increase that you get two and three if you get one i think they actually went down i think this was actually gave everybody to reason to go back to the holes and do what they want to do. This is almost a point, right. Were not sure whats going to happen and its going to be with us its not just china. Were negotiating with the eu. Theyre there is nafta 2. 0 to be ratified i think the economy is turning but youre seeing negative da to the ended of the year. You think its turning better or down. Better but early. I think the economy is still dealing with surprisingly the tightening of financial conditions we saw in 2018 from rising rates that takes time to flow through the economy it looks like to us based on the move we have seen lower in lates you will see a bottoming of the Global Manufacturing cycle in q 1 of 2020. If you look at global pmi in q 2 only 17 percy rising q 37, 35 rising its early you pray defense for now and look for more signs to rotate cyclically once you get to q 1. Why do you think the odds go fie higher of a phase three deal now we have the first phase deal. Because its just just because you actually i didnt think you could get them both in a rom. I didnt think you are you were getting anything i thought it was pos touring pushing it off until the election but if you get one and were already talking about ip talking about tech transfers these are a lot of things we didnt think. They are talking about it t he said that ip is involved in phase one. But they havent written anything yet havent put pen to paper. Agreed in principle and ip was in there which i didnt expect it to be in there let alen i thought that was phase three. I dont want to put a cold blanket on. But you will. The washington victory lap. I dont think ive been terrible lid cynical but as i listen to the deal and wow, concessions ag concessions were not calling nim a currency manipulate oef. We may not. We may not and ask for currency transparency. Weve been talking about this a long time. Do you think thats posture. I dont think china is doing nigut awful with the currency. I think the currency if anything trying to help it not become too weak tofs. China by the way last week said there were some things off the tame table that would never be on the table. What were those things if it wasnt ip and if it wasnt tech. Its probably subbeds have industrial subsidies. And ip. Structure of their economy. There is no way they give ground on intellectual property and ip for the next century. No way this is everything xi built the policy on. China 2025, one belt, one rode road. You were doubtful about the things they have agreed no in principle on the first phase. Im doubtful we get substantive progress in things that i think are geopolitical and structural and will never happen its great to see a deal but it gets back to what do the markets want to do with this. I think the market spoke volumes in terms of the rally today. Even at session highs. What did we not see back down. We did not see back down the defensive sectors. Ut tilts flat. Staples flat no. They underperformed what they started today was cyclical and tech and industrials and materials and energy all these things that were tide is the recession. But if youre a believer in phase two and three you let go ofthe high valuation safety sectors. Go with me on this. All right. I know youve been skeptical a lot of people have been skeptical. If this is could this not have been played any better ring stringing it out for three phases for the administration . You dont want a whole deal. Clearly you are buying it. The market bought it. The market bought it today thats all that thats all we care about. And youre right. Our point is that or at least my point im not sure the market needs to buy more after this and i think melissas point is that the market well as of 3 40 when it started to get details that this is about currency and agriculture and maybe ip stuff we dont know the s p gave up 230 handles when there was a lot of pessimism there is no question you get a relief from a. When this this is the biggest sell the event but with two other phases coming you are put back on your heels doesnt matter thats the beauty of it. How do they even know there are three phases they made that up. They made that up. They already said three phases we dont even know what those are. Let me go back. Go back to. Let me go back to the sentiment well one more time i keep talking about it. I think its clear this is going to be overhang we cant agree on the desk whats happening im not uber bear or bull because of sentiment we talked about it last time its a volatile miss but at an interesting point. I thought we were talking about ride share stocks more a zbleekd no the most recent negative reading was 18 more bears than bulls. If you go back to december of 18 when the mechanic was falling off the cliff. The Monthly Average was nchgt 23 . Sentiment is basically where it was when the market was falling out of bed im not saying that shoots us to the moon but it it does put a floor under the volatility that might transpire. I think the bull bear the indicators i follow them i think youre right to look at them, sentiment is what this market has been playing on a lot of day trading has been able to be done. But those get quick rchld. You can see quick swings like relative strength indicator for people following momentum. And i think its kind of a momentum of investors in the same way youd look at a stock chart. But i grew agree. Guy. Yes. What do you do here. Its tactically good for the president. He played it magnificently in terms of the market. No zpie li denying s p at alltime high effectively. But whats been splishd today . The same thing we walked away from may you can talk about ipo all you want the chinese are not going to buckle on that im surprised because im a person who said no deal. Im not sure what the day is but the market seemed to like it. We are learning more about the trade agreement from the president. Lets get to eamon javers. The president just left the white house while on the soulgt lawn had the opportunity to ask him what specific concessions he got from the chinese side in exchange for holding off on the tariff increase next week. The president talked about the agriculture purchases. Thats looming large in his mind here as sort of the number one accomplishment of what they were able to do today he called it an incredible deal. He said its a very good deal. He said its the best deal ever for American Farmers but when i asked him about specific concessions from the chinese, the number one thing that he cited just now is those agriculture purchases. That gives you a sense of sort of what the president prioritizes here. Which is interesting since kayla made a point to say that ip was included in the phase one agreement. And so if that is not one of of the number one things anding a purchases is that seems like a huge question mark to me. Thats literally the first thing the president said when i asked the question now, you know, you go back to the beginning of this, right, what did the president get into this trade war for ultimately its there were enormous goals here in terms of restructuring the trade relationship between the United States and china getting the chinese to stop stealing intellectual property. The forced joint ventures all of that those were sort of the initial impetuses if thats a word dsh did for the deal or on the effort but when i talked to the president about concessions in what he calls phase one he is talking about agriculture purchases. Eamon javers thank you. You bet. Eamon from the white house. Jeff you said before you would be defensive in the market. I would. Defensive how i think youre in growth. I think youre in utilities probably need a pullback but in defensive sectors of the market. Even within the more cyclical areas like energy where we are positioned getting more defensive. Going upextremist less exposure to energy. Trying to do things in poefrmts like that. What we tell clients is at this phase it doesnt make a lot of sense to lean too far in either direction honestly i think you need to look at the portfolio, assess risks make sure theyre intentional and if you want to be tactical be defensive now looking for more evidence in q 1 you see the cyclical rotation. If you see Global Manufacturing bottom then you see a bigger chance of cyclicals actually working for a sustained period of time where you can actually trade into them and make money. Lets talk about Global Manufacturing bottom if you look at where we are week over week, whats outperformed the s p is the dax whats outperformed in the last couple days even fedex if you want to look for places where first of all sentiment as we talked about and positioning is so overdone fedex is an example and a big risk here. This is a stock making successive lows, cut in half effectively at 5year lows about you if think we are getting to the bottom and you believe fedex problems are not just their own thats one way to look at it. The other big story of the day, apple new alltime alltime highs and the chart master says the record run just Getting Started. Live in times square in new york city much more fast money right after this you should be mad at leaf blowers. [beep] you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out. And you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. But youre not mad, because you have e trade which isnt complicated. Their tools make trading quicker and simpler. So you can take on the markets with confidence. Dont get mad. Get e trade and start trading today. Dont get mad. To the wait did frowe just winners. Prouders everyone uses their phone differently. Thats why Xfinity Mobile lets you design your own data. Now you can share it between lines. Mix with unlimited, and switch it up at anytime so you only pay for what you need. Its a different kind of Wireless Network designed to save you money. Save up to 400 a year on your wireless bill. Plus get 250 back when you buy an eligible phone. Call, click, or visit a store today. Welcome back to fast money. Im meg tyrrell outside the pur two hearing wrapping up in Bankruptcy Court in white plains we are getting an order from judge essentially delaying all litigation against Purdue Pharma and the family that owns it. But only until november 6th. The parties purdue asked for six months of a stay of litigation as if faces more than 2,000 suits in the role oh over the op sid crisis bup at least 24 states are not onboard with the ininjunction junction. The judge splitting the difference and hoping the two sides can come together and come to agreement as to how information is sthard as they work toward settlement really at issue here is the disclosures around the sacklers Bank Accounts and Financial Information that the states who arent onboard with the deal want more information about. And already were getting a statement from the new York Attorney general who has opposed the settlement offer from the Sackler Family saying essentially quote were pleasewood the court as desire for transparency but they say we look forward to further proceedings and holding the sacklers responsibility for the role they played in the opioid kriez a stay or delay for three and a half weeks but could see it pick up again then. Back to you. Thank you, meg with in while plains tonight lots of news not to get lost lost in the mix apple pb hitting theulate alltime high the chart master says the rally just Getting Started carter twoergt break it down. Dpliet what might look like a rally the market is unch. Thats nothing. What do we see . What do we know . What we know is this this is as of yesterdays close ive taken today away. We are right back to where we were essentially one year ago. Look how you precise this is, this is october 3rd. Yesterday was october 10th one year, no progress. Lets look at price level. This is 229. Spot 90, here pot 04 call that 230, call that 230 what it a conventional brey juncture or breakout here is the line and today we have a magnifying glass here take a look we just broke out in a way day one an Important Development and i think you can also draw the uptrend line like that and this in principle is the beginning. Year to date figures are irrelevant what is relevant is no progress in a year. Just breaking out should follow through. All right carter, thank you. Carting carter werth we have breakings news out of the white house. To Kayla Tausche. During the Oval Office Meeting the vice premier of china handed President Trump an envelope in it had a letter from president xi jinping were now just getting the text of the letter in a translation of it. And i said to read you a appraise from that that our producers are providing. It says a healthiy and steady china u. S. Relationship serves the interests of our two countries and the world at large. I hope the two sides act in principle and direction you and i have agreed to and work to advance u. S. China relations based on coordination, cooperation and stability. It goes on to talk about values of Mutual Respect and to expand cooperation for Mutual Benefit to restore u. S. China releases back along the right track, melissa. It seems that while President Trump used this as a parpgs phase of a broader deal, that it is a course correction for the u. S. China relationship. President trump in the oval Office Multiple times said this deal is not only good for u. S. Economy its good for world peace and that its bigger than just the contents of the deal itself. Kayla thank you Kayla Tausche at the white house. Carter was talking about apple and the recorden runs. Should we continue to count on leadership, guy out of technology in this market environment. Why not steve said this the other day and ill echo. Take profits in apple i would say the same thing in terms of discipline the right thing to do in my opinion was take money off the table around 230 level which was last october high. As darter pointed out. But if you want to trade the stock now given what we fwhoe you have a bogey on thedownside to trade against the 230 close last wok reports on october 30th it continues to rally there arism names that have gotten whacked ma might be worth a look the bill selloff in xylinks. You use 230 for apple thats the support. Everything was outsized based op china u. S. Trade headlines watch that level to hold next week. Up next, final trades stay tuned man how can i deliver superior longterm results . It begins with a distinctive approach to managing money. That for over 85 years has focused on keeping confidence up when markets are down. An approach where Portfolio Managers work well independently. And even better together. Who dont just invest, but are personally invested. Can i find a proven approach designed to deliver results . With capital group, i can. Talk to your advisor or consultant for investment risks and information. Its time for final trade. Tim seymour. It is its hard to say that transports can make a uturn here but where we came from i think the ral kr in fedex is something i stay behind. Ewe uturn next. Nice. I like carter point chart looks good and buy it at lower valuation than the previous alltime mys grasso. Roku i know the stock bounced dramatically off lees. I bought around the lows sold today. You know its fascinating i worked at United Parcel services amongst many other places of a all the jobs you have had since you were on fast money. That was the best costume. The ups costume. Did you have a hair net on. I didnt ware a hair net. I hate that. I didnt ware a harriett had net. He wouldnt have needed ten years ago. I learned this what i was going to say, ups trucks do not make lefthand turns in the city you knew that. Of course. Because its easier more efficient. Its more efficient to right hand big circled concentric circles. Alt of time left in the show a trade school cliffs thanks for tcngwahi dont go anywhere options action starts right after this my joints for the long term. Osteo biflex now in triple strength plus magnesium. In the human brain, billions of nefor people with parkinsons, some neurons change their tune, causing uncontrollable tremors. Now, abbott technology can target those exact neurons. Restoring control and harmony, once thought to belost forever. The most personal technology is technology with the power to change your life. Happy friday, everybody. Its time for options action. Here is what we have on the show tonight. Announcer on the big show tonight. Banking. Banking, yes. That entire sector kicks off earning season next week backup but dan nathan says there is onlien one name you need to concentrate on plus have you tried staples. Staples hmm, maybe you shouldnt. Carter werth explains why you might want to be wary of consumer aets basic necessities. Finally. Mike khouws plan to netflix and
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