Expects to resume deliveries of the 737 max as early as next month and that airlines could be able to restart commercial flights in january lets get to phil lebeau with all the details on this. That was a heck of a move by boeings shares today melissa. It comes down to whether or not you buy into the latest timeline that boeing is putting out heres what it stands at right now the company says that it expects to have a certification flight by early next month, could happen late this month but you have that certification flight leads to the faa certifying the plane by middecember, freeing them to begin deliveries so thats the first part they could start delivering planes, perhaps by the end of the year, to some customers. Theoretically at the same time Pilot Training rules will be set and theyll be locked in by perhaps midjanuary. So if you are an airline and youve got the pilots trained and youve got the fixed aircraft, commercial flights, theoretically, could begin by the end of january dont forget that boeing reports its october orders and delivery numbers tomorrow the big focus will be on the 737 max backlog. Did we see any cancellations or conversions from max planes into other aircraft and when youre looking at the airlines right now, remember that american, and we talked about this on friday, its pulled the max from its schedule back to march 5th. Thats when it comes back. And southwest is not going to start flying until march 7th even though boeing says theoretically airlines may be able to resume commercial service by the end of january, lets be realistic, if the faa is first the certify, three u. S. Carriers, but are the Airlines Ready with the Pilot Training . When it comes to southwest and american, theyre saying youve got a long ways to go before you put these planes back into true commercial service. Theres the issue, phil, i believe of airlines wanting to do their own p. R. Flights which could actually delay the process as well. Oh, yeah. Then you have to wonder if the airlines are already pushing back returning the 737 max to, say, the march time frame, which is what Many Airlines are at right now is there a disconnect, is there a credibility issue on the part of boeing when it comes to boeings guidance for these airlines the airlines are saying, you know what, were going to just take a couple more months here. I think the airlines, melissa, you and i have talked about this, they realize that its one thing for a plane to be technically cleared to fly, its another thing to sell flights for the 737 max. Its going to be a challenge for every carrier around the world. And yes, i know everyone will say eventually, you mark the price down enough youll get enough people to go on the planes, you have some safety or no safety issues, i should say, people will eventually forget about this that still doesnt ease the minds of the Airline Executives who are planning for returning these planes into service. They dont want to be putting these planes into service and theyre half full and then the other question becomes do you knock the price down so much, people are like how much confidence do you have in this plane if youre offering a 39 fare to fly across country its the balancing act that the airlines are running into right now and thats different than what boeing is saying which is, look, were responsible for getting it certified and delivered. How long it takes for you to get it back into service is not something thats within our control. All right, phil, thank you. Phil lebeau in chicago for us. You get. Take a look at that chart of boeing shares, right, not too bad, guy. Compared to early summer, a great day for boeing but weve seen moves like this before go back to august when this stock was trading around 325, seemingly in a death spiral down to 300 and then the huge run back up to 375, 380. I think thats where we are now, 325 held, we talked about getting back to levels it troughed at back in march when this all started and thats where we are right now the stock traded three times normal volume. If you believe that bad news is done, then this stock is a screaming buy. I dont. You also, by the way, have to believe that the stock markets going to trade sideways or unabated higher still. Right now, if youre buying boeing at these levels, given today youre saying bad news is already priced in. I dont believe it and the stock market will go higher unabated i dont believe that either. Whats happened in the past a lot has happened in the past month with boeing ahead to have time mule enbergsurvived. He said hes going to take no compensation and the timeline got a little bit more firmed up. In the process the stock has gone higher. Right so weve been in this range, 320 to 380 bouncing towards the top of it so i would say for now a lot of this kind of good news is priced in i think you have a couple issues to me theres risks in the near term if they miss that december date then their credibility is shot again and then the stock will fall the second part ark, as weve al talked about, how do you get passengers on the plane . Thats further down the line but you have a real credibility issue in the short term. If they dont get the certification, theres a huge problem. But even if they push that back, mulenberg has a problem with credibility, top of the range, youre going to have sellers come in. The ceo has one misexecution and hes gone. Thats what happens here and then you have this thing, theyre going to promote somebody whos also a 30 year veteran of this company. Over the last year weve had a really interesting debate on this desk about this stock in particular a lot of people have felt like theres a lot of other stocks out there. Without all this hair on it and then theres the one tim usually is like listen when they get back, earnings are expected to be down 93 this year and theyre supposed to go up dramatically next year to get back to peak earnings. Sales are expected to be down 20 this year but up 50 next year so if you think they can get through all that, and get through the p. R. Stuff and then its back to guys point its a screaming buy, trading at 17 times with a backlog of hundreds and hundreds of planes getting back to making 52 of them a month. Theres a lot of assumptions there too in terms of credibility. Yeah. And whether or not airlines believe boeing anymore. Right its not just whether or not they believe them its how much can they extract from them from the delays its caused. Discounts. Discounts or lost revenue, i dont know what, it all sort of probably gets negotiated together the thing, though the stock going down on bad news its up a lot recently with the markets up a lot recently and the china situation is abated somewhat recently those are obviously two issues that boeing was, you know, correlated very highly to. So i actually think the risk i dont own it i just its just too rich for me i dont own it one thing they really need to consider is whether or not they need to change the name from 737 max and have a total rebranding. Calhoun said were not considering that at this time. Yeah. Well okay, all right. They should. They should. I mean, i know what im going to do when i book a flight, what kind of plane is on there and im going to say im not going to get on this thing for a year, at least. If they change the name, youre still going to know. There was an interview in the New York Times with doug parker, the ceo of American Airlines, brings up a good point, he was saying he doesnt the faa has laid out all these conditions and its the manufacturer, either setting too aggressive a view as to when theyll have the conditions met or not being able to deliver on what they said they were going to deliver American Airlines, uniquely, i spoke to an analyst this afternoon in power lunch, in a position to where its equipped to flip air bus if it wants to because it does have air bus in its fleet it is capable, maintenance wise and all that to switch to the air bus as opposed to continuing taking boeings. I didnt know when i read that article it was interesting to me it was a little more contentious than i would have thought. Yeah. When theyre trying to negotiate, obviously, a big deal, big payments and, you know, certainly wondering, is this december date, was that something to do with recognition or revenue and i think you were saying on an earlier on power lunch today they dont believe that well, i guess that wasnt the reason for it. Right. Right yeah. I dont know if that but its all part of a global negotiation for what are they going to do for these airlines that have either bet their future, like a southwest, or that part of their future, like an american, what are they going to do for them was there some clarity on that i think the market will digest whatever that penalty is all that having been said im not long. Airlines have traded particularly well today, American Airlines shlgs last year and a half to two years, probably cut in half yes a bounce off a recent low but the stock hasnt traded particularly well. Now youre looking for names that might have been adversely affected when this happened and a name like spr, for example, Spirit Aerospace which makes 70 of boeings planes out of kansas, that stocks had a huge run. But you know what, valuationwise its compelling and maybe now, at least for them, with this headline risk out of the way, maybe thats a stock that can get back to that hundred level we saw basically in march earlier this year. Some of the old timy guys into the stock market, the dow transport, interesting to note listen, boeing is still up 13 , 14 on the year, its not been a massive drag on any major industry its a big component within the iyt and that still has not confirmed any of the new highs in the s p 500 which i think is pretty interesting in a way. I think the iyt made a high at like 209 or Something Like that. So its below 200. Its kind of threatening a little bit of a breakout to me thats one that would be interesting to see that get going and it hasnt gotten going yet. The iyt is also i mean, theres a couple different components in there. We had rails that actually did fairly well so if were just sticking with the Airline Space or aerospace in general, the one element everyone likes about boeing is the Defense Sector to me id like to go to Lockheed Martin to play that theme rather than a boeing with all the hair on it. Coming up, the Holiday Shopping season around the corner should the Retail Sector expect a lump of coal in its stocking this year . One top strategist says you may have missed your chance to get in on this record rally. A pullback is coming live from tis ua imesqren new york city. Much more fast money right after this not much, how about you . Are you answering my text in person . I am. Yeah. Lol. Come on in. This is tech that helps you be there. The nissan altima. Now offering the most techadvanced engine in its class. Now offering the most techadvanced nongmo, made with naturally sundown vitamins are all sourced colors and flavors and are gluten dairy free. Theyre all clean. All the time. Even if sometimes were not. Sundown vitamins. All clean. All the time. Hey. Hey. You must be stevens phone. Now you can take control of your home wifi and get a notification the instant someone new joins your network. Only with xfinity xfi. Download the xfi app today. Welcome back. The holiday smashing records this year. Lets get to the big numbers behind alibabas singles day. Sales topped 1 billion last year sales were closer to 30 billion. Increase of 28 , slower than years past 11th year for the event. Some slowing in growth is to be expected how large this event has grown and how quickly the first singles day in 2009 sales closer to 7. 8 million the event has become larger than black friday and siecybermonday. U. S. Brands tend to do well on this day too, after Chinese Companies they received the most sales with apple, nike, estee lauder, gap, all doing well. This is especially important, investors looked for signs of a weakening Chinese Consumer, nationalism towards American Companies and analysts were mixed about larger implications with massive figures, some saying the Chinese Consumer is still strong, clearly still shopping others say this is more about the strength of alibaba and how theyve harnessed the power of technology to get people to shop they are indeed shopping alibaa b a alibabas competitor did well too. They generated about 60 billion in sales melissa . Thank you, staggering figures on singles day how do you trade baba . We talked about this technical level, above in 185, tight range. Talking about how cheap the options were priced into this sort of event. I think what a lot of investors are thinking is that this is becoming a complex day from a logistics standpoint for alibaba, not worth getting to the 38 billion the stock was down a couple percent on macro news, regarding china and hong kong. Made it up by the end of the day. Investors like to see that id be playing for a breakout for the range its been in. 195 was a april high. I think thats obviously the next step. But the longterm levels at 211, talked about when here last week, i think thats the trend obviously didnt trade particularly well, sort of a benign date for the stock. Probably to be expected given the run weve seen but to dans point, i think the trend is intact, 195 is absolutely, i think in my opinion, a next stop. Does this chart really tell the story of the Chinese Consumer in your view . I think it does, yeah its interesting, the chinese stock market itself actually looks interesting. It looks like it wants to break out. The shanghai 300 or Something Like that, that looks interesting. If youre actually having a Chinese Consumer thats doing well, the trade tariffs are rolling off, then i actually think baba and the shanghai could do quite well. Singles day that record comes as major u. S. Retailers gear up for the most wonderful and important time of the year, yes, 43 days, six hours, 42 minutes, 19 seconds until christmas and we have fresh data showing the u. S. Consumer could put a big chill on the holiday cheer, a new survey find that more than a third of americans plan to spend less this Holiday Season than they did last year so which retailers could feel the most pain . If there is a Holiday Spending pullback what do you think . Im guessing the Department Stores would just be a continuation of the trend weve seen i think that whatever americans think theyre going to spend during christmas they get it wrong every time. So they end up spending more or less . Always end up spending more, although they past surveys theyve said theyll spend more but theyve been undershooting how much more. Things set up nicely for the consumer theyre employed wages are going up Interest Rates are down. Stock market is up gas prices are low it doesnt really get that much better for the consumer so i think well see pretty good retail numbers from retailers who are doing it right im i mean, macys, i was just looking at it today, 9. 4 yield. Wow. Thats kind of incredible. If you believe thats going to stay in place, at under six times earnings, or, i mean, if you then its probably a buy. I dont own it but thats interesting to me. I did go to the new nordstroms in new york, busy. The Shoe Department was really crowded. And i had to get some stuff for my husband we discussed it was a crisis a fashion crisis long standing thing. You guys were talking about the ones we know have problems amazon is interesting here its massively underperformed the maga complex, microsoft, apple and google amazons 13 from highs, look at that chart, the up trend, that really feels to me that it really wants to test that up trend as opposed to those prior highs which are about equi distance back to the comment about alibaba, why has amazon stalled out here oneday shipping, the costs associated with it and the logistics thing and i think this has become increasingly difficult as consumers expect to have the stuff yesterday and told to them what they want when they dont even know they want it. Amazons stalled a bit because bezos is not earning money, hes spending right now whats the reason you have to be in the stock i do think macys, though, is an interesting trade. I know we talked about it last week but it sets up for a potential surprise 27 Short Interest on this stock with a 9 dividend yield, wouldnt take much to spark a rally. Holiday season. Were in the Holiday Season right now, absolutely. Favorite time of year. Ho, ho, ho, mistletoe. Go to the butcher at this time of year bear with me a second. Tie this all together. I hope so. Dont do the finger roll, like get on with it. We have a limited time. When its busy, youve got to take a number and its number 65, im 82, wait why do i bring that up at nordstroms, people were taking numbers, thats how busy they were. The report in november 21st, big Short Interest, stock is up 2 on a benign day. The stock continues to rally in earnings not knocking the cover off the ball it means people are scared to be short named like that. Bigger question. Bigger than the butcher how do you know that in the womens Shoe Department people were taking numbers . I just know, because i do the peter lynch thing. What do you think i do just a question. Just saying. For more on all of this not the number thing and the Shoe Department. Go to cnbc. Com investinyou, Nbc Universal are investors. Dont go anywhere. Much more fast money straight ahead. Markets may be at record highs but some bears are still roaring about the pain to come why you might want to tread carefully as stocks keep climbing. Walgreens, one of the names dow avoiding, we break down what would be an historic deal. Alth al atnd more when fast money returns ps them to and thh retirement. Dealing with todays expenses. While helping plan, invest and protect for the future. So theyll be okay . I think theyll be fine. Voya. Helping you t