Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20240713 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Power Lunch July 13, 2024

Points that key level broached 3100 for first time ever. The nasdaq is higher today all three of the major indices are on track for more record closier close closers. President trump said trade deals with china could happen. Eamon is there and has the details. Reporter thats right. The big question going into the speech today was would the president say anything specific about china give us any dates or locations any indication of where this signing ceremony might take place. The answer is no he didnt give us any specials. Here is what he did say. Were the ones that are deciding whether or not we want to make a deal were close. A significant trade one deal with china it would happy it could happen soon we will only accept a deal if its good for the yiet for our workers and great companies. A little vague there on the specifics. The president also really lashing out at some of his critics including democrats on capitol hill and the Federal Reserve. The president saying he wants to see negative Interest Rates in this country he says the economic boom in this country would be much better if the Federal Reserve would cooperate with him and do as hes been asking. He said negative Interest Rates are happening around the world and they should happen in the yi United States. Stocks once again today continuing their salt assault on report highs. The president speech not market mover but it didnt need to because were at new highs. Major indicesnew high. Thats been really strong. They have been at new highs. Same new high list that we saw last week here i want to highlight general e lek tri. It was 9. Look at this move. Were talking a 20 move here. Thats a new 52week high for General Electric we are seeing break outs with the cyclical groups. General transports, materials. Even the Fund Managers are getting optimistic Global Growth expected to improve in 2020. Doesnt sound like much. They have been pessimistic for most of this year. This is change in attitude another change in attitude of the most crowded trade stocks. Thats important because the old one was u. S. Treasuries. Thats inverted now and tech is the big long outfit. Back to you. Thank you, bob. The president saying theres no uncertainty when i comes to the u. S. Trade war with china. Lets bring in chief u. S. Economist for jpmorgan the president saying hes on the precipice of the phase one deal but if theres no trade deal that the tariffs will be raised stoppable stanlly. The markets had very little reaction its not good enough. If you go back to march 2018 when the tariff and trade talk escalated, the median stock among large mid small cap stocks is up 5 the good marks the president gets for the stock market returns at the first half of administration on tax cuts, regulatory sensibility, renewing entrepreneurial spirits, thats given way to uncertainty where tariffs have been. I think the biggest over hang on stocks even moving higher. Im wondering if in your data it does seems capex leads from the earnings we got and the data we have, we have seen a depressive impact on capital expenditur expenditures we know that capex spending has contracted in the second and third quarter. Looks like it may do so in Fourth Quarter we cant say uncertainty is the policy you cant really distinguish with perfect precision what is caused by trade policy, uncertainty versus what may be slowing political growth or some slowing and Profit Growth but that does get highlighted in a lot of the surveys we look at. Michael, who was in the room since you were there who are your fellow audience members and what was the mood like what was the reception like . Its a couple thousands people i dont know who every one was i know a few people i saw. The mood was good. The speech was peppered with some jokes and people liked that the mood was fine. I dont know who was entirely in the room let me turn to you, david and pick up an a couple of themes there. The president talked about how higher Interest Rates have put us at a disadvantage globally. Do you feel that way and the stock market would be 25 to 40 higher than it is today if interest rays were lower than they are today and maybe even at zero or below. The president gets good marks on tax cuts and regulatory sensibility in my view he didnt get good grades on undue criticism of the Federal Reserve board for saying we should have negative Interest Rates. Is there any u. S. Investor or business person who would trade places with most of europe and japan who have lived with negative Interest Rates in the fall out because of a weak economy and weaker stock prices. The president loses me when he criticizes the fed or talks about the virtues of negative Interest Rates our cost to capital is low to businesses to skucceed and nowish low r Interest Rates, lets say lower instead of negative would mean weaker dollar which could be beneficial to a lot of companies and the stock market how do you parse out the corr t correctness of the president s statement . One way ke can think about this is the look at a variety of policy rules theres a number of those. Most suggest that policy rates in the neighborhood of where they are now is appropriate. I think most economists that i know think that rates maybe they could be 25 basis points lower or higher. I dont hear a lot of mainstream who think we need to go more stimlative were pretty close to price stability as defined by Federal Reserve. Policy seems to be in a good place. The economy is in a good place its not clear that we need either more restraint or more stimulus thaunk you very much. Boeing releasing it lgs october numbers and the number fo wat to watch the cancels numbered for the 737 max. We have the answers overall the numbers were pretty unimpressive but nobody was expecting much the company did see a decline of 11 net orders. 11 net orders. Thats how much it fell in the month of october as for the 737 max, they saw a declean in overall orders by 18 aircraft people who had orders for the max who have said lets convert that into another plane in the boeing line up when you look at the backlog of the 737 max, it stand bs s at 46 planes it was down about 133 planes compared to one year ago when it comes to the max basically adjusting their portfolio a little bit take a look at shares of boeing. Keep this mind the company has said that it expects the faa to certify the 737 max next month that is the expectation of the company. Nothing is written in stone. The faa add min straministrator speaking right now in washington, d. C. If he says anything regarding the max, well let you know. They may have to wait longer for future plane to be certified because boeing is so tied up with the recertification of the max. The ceo said our customers and they need to meet demand its not uncommon to add just portfolios i wouldnt read too much into these 18 cancellatilations on te max. That bag log of 4400 is strong especially if youre building 42, 57 a month whatever the rate will be in the next year. Thats almost two a day thank you coming up, will the next six weeks be a boom or bust for retailers. Top retail analysts gives us hot picks for Holiday Season power lunch will be right back only one things more exciting than than getting a lexus. Giving one. This is unbelievable it really is. The lexus december to rembember sales event lease the 2020 rx 350 all wheel drive for 419 a month for 27 months. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. Welcome back retail reyes gearing up for the Christmas Shopping spree walmart and target are poised to be holiday winners according to analysts from both banks walmart up 28 and target up 66 or 64 as we have on the graphic. Both out performing the xrt. Thats the etf lets bring in the bank of americaa agnalyst who made the call good to have you with us thanks for having me. One of the concerns that i believe we raised on the program yesterday is that both of these stocks are fairly richly priced or at the very at least have had nice runs in 2019. Does that give you any pause at all. Do you still think they have more space to grow i think they have more space because they deserve that valuation because look at the impressive same store sales both of the companies have been putting up with the last several quarters what are they doing right and take me one at a time. What is walmart doing right . Theres a lot of people five, eight years ago who thought walmart is sucking some wind here and the same question for target whats target doing right . Walmart improved in grocery and online they are one of the retailers that are driving positive traffic. How about target . For target, a similarly significant change is to their sort thats allowed them to go after the apparel business in a big way. Theres over a billion dollars of apparel sells they have gone after the toy business for the closure of toys r us and have done a great job with their buy online and pick up strategy. What do you think about the tariffs, the december 15th tariffs if they go into effect the Holiday Season wont be impacted because much of the merchandise has been brought in or sitting in some warehouse but Going Forward i would mimagine the goods they bring in will be hit by tariffs how do you think about that . Thats a great question i was just in asia pa sick last month visiting with manufacturing partners of people like target and waumgt one of the advantages that both those retailers has is they are very large theyve got scales they are very well positioned to mitigate the tariffs with support from their partners over in china lets talk a bit about the view of consumers. Do you see any hesitance on their part to spend a, any kindo retracement in their optimism or not . It looks a lot of macro factors for consumers. One of the things it continues sthoe fr to show is that the lowest income cohert continues to grow their spending in a much faster pace than the upper and middle income coherts that bodes well for target and walmart. We havent seen any slow down in momentum youre still seeing things like strong new home sale, Labor Participation rate continues to improve. This is good news for the core walmart customer and to a certain extent the target customer thank you very much thanks for having me. Coming up, a rocky day for disney plus. U yo dont want the picture freezing during frozen but this could be a good sign in nasdaq hitting a new record high. The sunny surge continues. We have that story next on power lunch. No commission. Delivery drones, or the latest phones. No commission. No matter what you trade, at fidelity youll pay no commission for online u. S. Equity trades. At fidelity youll pay no commission i wouldnt be here if i thought reverse mortgages, took advantage of any american senior, or worse, that it was some way to take your home. Learn how homeowners are strategically using a reverse Mortgage Loan to cover expenses, pay for healthcare, preserve your portfolio and so much more. A reverse Mortgage Loan isnt some kind of trick to take your home. Its a loan, like any other. Big difference is how you pay it back. 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Mpl got a market flash facebook owns whatsapp is scaling back its use of twilio unclear whether this is pegged to those ongoing privacy concerns around facebook but twilio has noted that whatsapp is a big customer. We are looking shares trading down by as much as 1. 4 . Back to you. Thank you very much lets go to mike for trading nation thank you very much were going to get a check on the chips right here in a moment building on a recent break out today closing in on fresh records but after a 9 rally in the past month, can this semi surge last todd gordon of trading analysis. No question this is a Leadership Group in this rally. Maybe the only question are they starting to run too hot at this point . I dont think so. If you look at the long term chart here, weve been channelling quite well we might not see we wont see resistance until about 150 on the up side. You look at names like amd, breaking a down trend, a 20year down trend i think theres a strong possibility we continue. There we go. Real quick were not going to fall in to resisting until about 150. All the way from the credit crisis low i like the group pretty long history of leading the stocks in semiconductor demand does that make sense to you . Maybe i think what were looking at is a catch up trade i think active managers are trying to find the hotmomentum group. I think that works into the end of the year. Were not a fan of facing momentum traders can play the same type of catch up trade. Look at the small cap index. An index that hasnt done anything this year i think youve got a really nice risk reward bying the iwm with a 5 stock thaunk you very much head to our website or follow us on twitter tyler, back to you ahead, one Department Store wants you to fork over some serious gold to see santa. Were not talking cookie dough disneys whole new world disney plus launching today. Juul expected to cut 650 jobs as it looks to cut costs. The burning question, whats next for the vaping industry all this when power lunch returns. We call it the mother standard of care. Its how we care for our patients like job. His team actca treated his cancer and side effects. So job can stay strong for his family. Cancer Treatment Centers of america. Appointments available now. Im part of a community of problem solvers. We make ideas grow. From an everyday solution. To one that can take on a bigger challenge. We are solving problems that improve lives. Welcome back here is your cnbc news update. White house acting chief Mick Mulvaney says he no longer plans to sue and will follow president trumps directions and decline to cooperate its the latest reversal in position by mulvaney former trump add visor roger stone walking into court as his trial for lying to congress continues. Former Trump Campaign aid rick gates testifying that stone asked for Jared Kushners information in order to debrief him about hacked emails nikki haley appearing on the today show today to promote her new book she says she has made up her mind regarding the trump impeachment inquiry. I mean impeachment is literally the worst punishment you could do to a public official here you have a situation where there was no investigation and the aid flowed as it was supposed to. When you look at that situation its hard to see where impeachment would qualify for that you are up to date. Thats the news update back to you. Thank you lets look at the markets now. We have the dow. It turned negative were down by three point ons the industrials right now. S p 500 gave up the 3100 level its up by four points nasdaq up. Its time for the days power movers w winner winner chicken diner. Tyson foods higher the company bullish on next year expecting alternative meat to gain momentum. Rockwell automation having its best day since 2009. The ceo telling me last hour that the electric Vehicle Production provided a big boost and in the next 20 years electric cars and trucks will make up more than half of the vehicles on the road globally. Shares of advanced auto parts are stalling earnings beat preponderaexpects. The stock is down. The long awaited launch of disney plus is here but so far theres been some glitches hiccups and glitches due to demand for this app that is disneys big bet yet and a way from the traditional tv bundle this morning when disney plus launched at 6 00 a. M. Eastern, about 7,000 people reported streaming errors disney saying the consumer demand has exceeded our highest expect expectations we are pleased but are aware of the issues and working to resoever them. We appreciate your patience. Its launching with 8,000 tv episodes and films from its library plus ten original series and two original f naa naal fils its flagship star wars win off getting an 89 positive critics rating on Rotten Tomatoes while lady and the tramp remake has a 68 rating disney plus will reach as many as 90 million subscribers in the next five years. Its also hoping to grow its hulo and espn plus advertising business its bundling disney plus, hulu with ads and espn plus for 13 there are. Thats a 5 discount bper month. Will disney plus be game changer in the streaming wars and what might it mean for the stock . Robert thompson is a tv radio and film professor you taught a lot of my coworkers here and they are all geniuses they are just brilliant. Taught them everything they know must be the teaching. My question is what percentage of your students subscribe to cable or have tv sets. You got a guess. Ive asked them i have a class of about 120 that i see every week and fewer than 10 go home to a place with the tv set when they go home for the holidays their parents have Television Sets but when they go to their dorms or apartments or their sorority houses almost all of tv viewing they are doing under devices and they are streaming. Very, very you can infer from that that the streaming services are the future they are not the future, they are the present. While its true this was the first year that subscribers who streaming exceed worldwide subscribers through cable an satellite, i think the streaming thing is here. Everybody keeps saying disney changes everything, everything has already chan

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