Date trade tensions resurface as china rebukes the decision to sign a bill backing protests in hong kong. And retail front and center as we get forecasts from adobe and the National Retail federation, forecasting strong Holiday Spending joining us for the hour is allied chief Investment Strategy lindsey bell here we go, a shortened day today but a lot of excitement. Whats driving the action . Well, you know, there is lower volumes today. Coming into the end of november, going into december, this is the seasonally strong period of the year earnings season was a good one retail sales pretty good retail earnings were good even though a mixed bag and so i think were in the period of pause until the new year. What are you paying close attention to today. Well, today, i think its really all about this is black friday about the retail environment and the consumer theyve been very confident, wages going up Unemployment Rate very low, near 50year lows can the strength of the consumer driving the economy the last several years continue. Weve got an actionpacked show laid. And lindsey with the full first hour lots to unpack lets drill down on the stories on court nay reagan covering the retail movers on likely the biggest shopping day of the year np dedra bosa and Steve Liesman looking at the strength of the u. S. Kmurm consumer. But kicking off with courtney at the Woodridge Center mall in. Of course the black friday sales have change as far as the timing, the cadence. You have deals and thanksgiving, deals as early as october, still today is forecast to be the busiest and biggest day for retail of the entire year with 150 million americans forecast to shop online, in store or both 165 million between thursday and cyber monday last year, according to the nrf that was about the same. The group we expect total holiday sales to increase around 4 its going well we feel good, feel positive see other people out shopping. It seems this year to be more positive and i really to do attribute to the economy doing better we have more spending cash i feel optimistic so dont mind spending a little more now, i spoke to kohls ceo this morning saying gaming has been strong for her retailer nintendo switch. Ps 4 some items selling out but she mentioned popular for kohls shoppers. The ninja foodie air friar and levis. Black friday may have changed. Its Still Critical for retailers. Last year black friday generated enbetween 6 and 7 of Quarterly Sales for retailers. An average day about 1 of Quarterly Sales. This is equivalent potentially for an entire week of sales for retail really got to turn it in and turn it up back to you guys so kourtney, um curious i know that when you try to navigate black friday sales you got to go to the websites and see who is offering what, what times. And then on top of that, the Online Shopping. Are you seeing any etailers keeping up or having trouble keeping up with the online traffic . Yeah, thats a good question. Interestingly enough, costco actually saw increase in online shoppers, according to or at least when you impair to last year but if couldnt handle that traffic. Costcos website went down briefly yesterday morning. H and m also has been down yesterday briefly for about five minutes. And again today. So were going to keep checking on those most seem to be back up and running now. But you know that can change literally at any second on the shopping weekends. Court, you do this brilliantly how busy is it do you feel like compared to recent years . So, im looking around here as you ask me that question because ive been at this location now this is the third year in a row. I would say its as busy as i have seen it so far today right now. Now that we have those earlier black friday deals, thanksgiving day, thats when the big door busters are for the big box retailers dp stores even specialties, everybody goes out first. Then go home and rest and eat and come back out. As the day goes on we see actually the traffic pick up i would say right now is probably peak traffic since ive been here since about 4 30 this morning. A lot of shopping time there. Thank you. Consumers spent 4. 2 billion online according to adeb making the 15 increase over last years thanksgiving spend dedra bosa has a closer look at Amazon Holiday strategy. What are you finding out. So contessa amazon still getting a massive share of the ecommerce pie no surprise. But growth is slowing as it matures and direct to Consumer Brands up their game emarketer expects amazon growth to slow to 17ers this year. In black friday we looked at how amazon stacks up to others in terms of the hottest items so naturally guys, we looked at the air fryer. Apparently this years instant pot for those that dont know, this is an appliance frying food without oil. The ninja air max as amazon and target 99. 99. Amaze within the delivery advantage. Walmart giving a run for the money with next day deliver list f2 for 15 and doesnt have it in stock right now speaking to the supply chain issues guys we have been looking at hot items all morning. In many cases amazon is not the clear winner when it comes to nike, contessa if you were thinking of a few pairs for the boys nike ended the replace with amazon earlier this month. You have to sift through Third Party Sellers going through nike or foot locker this year seems the better option. Or ebay because the way the boys run down shoos shoe its better sense to buy them used than new. I like the fryer though. Youre getting into that. I might well do but i also fear its a bit of a slippery slope to unhealthy food at home. I get that its more healthy than if you had a deep fat fryer. But no one has that and just means frys at home more oft sfwlan youre cooking frozen food but im surprised the amount of cnbc people who dont know what a air fryer is wilf youre the third person today. I didnt until you pitched it this orning. I thought you use a little oil just less. Right 20 less what i read off about today. But for 100 pretty good value i feel like unlimited frys at home until we have to move on. Thats what it costs you. There we go dee, thanks so much. The strength of the consumer is of course not only the focus for retailers but also the broader markets. Lets have an update on that front. Steve liesman at hq. Wilf, good afternoon, this could be a case of drop shop or well drop growth flat or negative with the strong consumer. The economy more aligned with the consumer than its been in years. Growth in the Second Quarter would have contracted without consumption growth and eeked out a small gain as well in the third quarter. Usually other parts of the economy. Government, business, investment, inventories and trade can overcome the slowdown in consumption the reason is the same as the last time this happened back in 2015 and 16 its a slowdown in Business Investment business spending down 1 in the Second Quarter and nearly 3 at an annual rate in the third. Most economists blame that on the trade war. The consumer though benefitting from low unemployment, decent wage growth. Sentiment high along with the stock market it shapes up for a good Holiday Season and thats important now contessa to keep the economy growing. Yes but if you are looking at income are you seeing that moving at all along with the Consumer Confidence is it moving in time with it. Well so sentiment has been back up. Incomes were flat in october, kind of a surprise there and if you look back at since the summer, weve had this step down by about a percentage point or two you can see that right there and some of that was spending fueled perhaps in july by the amazon prime day you had perhaps some spending ahead of tariffs if we could stay atsz level, its okay. We wouldnt want to step down further from here. Stayingty level of Income Growth year over year and spending growth would shape you up for a good Holiday Season, contessa. One of the swing factors on overall gdp in the u. S. Has been whats been going on around the rest of the world. Are we seeing a transition where it that had been a drag for the first threequarters to where it might not be a drag even if not a help. Its possible wilf all the economists want to be early in calling the turn and the bottom. The data has not gotten much worse. Its not though gotten better. Theres been a bit of better stuff out of germany, for example. But i think after so many down months, so many down quarters, i would want to see a couple in a row on the Positive Side to really say that thats going to happen a lot of people, wilf are saying second half of 2020 maybe the Second Quarter of 2020 is when the world might help u. S. Growth a bit. Yeah, and that japanese Industrial Production down 4. 2 today. Not good. Too early to call. Thank you. Pleasure have a great holiday. You too happy holidays the last trading day of november and stocks set to end the month just off record highs. Tech Financials Health Care and industrials the best performing sectors for november if. For more lets bring in john of equity partnering. How are you doing. Great thanks for having me. As we stand can we have a blowout december as well or the fact that we have a good start for the quarter makes it less likely. I think less likely investors have gotten complacent with the way the market traded all year long and now are looking forward to whats happening in 2020. A lot on our calendar we know is coming down. We have to continue to talks talk about brexit, u. S. China. Elections if youre a Portfolio Manager and maritimes investor you should be happy where you are in the year and stay out of trouble in december. Woven been hearing a lot of the companies now starting to bring up tariffs and the impact of thebottom line, something weve been talking about a year and a half how important is getting the phase 1 trade deal signed and in the books . And any anticipation or a phase 2 or for you just look at the shortterm gel and move on. Its important to get there weve been having the same conversation for such a long period, getting some Information Transparency is important. You go back two quarters listening to some of the corporate earnings calls, not really talking too much about the impact of china. Last quarter we definitely heard it a lot more which is good. That companies are bringing this into forefront and saying we dont know how this plays out in the next few quarters. But its important to continue to focus on it, getting the deal done or some form of a deal would be helpful for the markets. I dont think its changing the market patterns we have seen its priced in but getting nothing done is going to be a problem. Lindsey, how do you think about the seasonty aspects appear set up for december. October, november, have been strong months together the s p 500 up about 5. 9 which is very strong usually december is another good month for the market but we could have seen some of that pulled forward into the octobernovember period. It makes sense for the market to take a bit of a breather given the run weve had. Is there any jitteriness now given because what with he saw last december was not good, no Christmas Gift for the markets the biggest concern would be trade, the december 15th crain delaine for a tariff hike. That uncertainty around that i think the market like you said is pricing in that thats pushed along down the road. Lets keep it in perspective here were up 25 on the year a 4 ab, 5 pullback over unknown headline we are not planning would be okay in the beginning of the year if you said sign here for 19 return on the year we would the swings we see got to keep it inspective what about the big caps, the apple and microsoft that have pushed new highs and broke be clearly out do you think theyre ripe for profit taking. Should be at this point we dont see it yet the momentum clearly has gone into it. Until we get more information on tariffs i think investors will feel comfortable getting into the larger cap stocks. Always a pleasure. Up next, Warren Buffett getting outbid in the quest to buy Tech Data Corp well look at the company and buffetts performance next. Later the ceo of mall of america, the countrys largest shopping center. Were talking a bit how bricks and Mortar Retailers plan to compete this holidayean. Sso sfls this cnbc Program Sponsored by sun trust bank, confidence starts here. It was sophies big day. By the way, shes the next mozart. As usual we were behind schedule. But sophies enthusiasm cannot be dampened. Not even by a runaway donut. We powered through it in our toyota prius. Because a stars got to shine, no matter what. Its unbelievable what you can do in the prius. Toyota lets go places. Welcome back weve 43 minutes left of trade and were down about 80 points on the dow lets get to mike for the market dash board. Early close but we got a full dash board first take a look at competitive shopping actually a bidding war that Warren Buffett lofts out on. Plenty for everyone perhaps in the video streaming wars at this time around. The market suggesting too many leftovers. This is about commodities seems a bit oversupplied in the World Markets pap. And naughty and nice one of the leading sengters of the market not equal in terms of which groups earned their good fortune, lets say this year first of all lets look at tech data this is the kind of behind the scenes middleman in Tech Products for Smaller Companies that was agreed to be acquired by Apollo Global becky quick reporting this morning that Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway were a bidder got the price higher but did not bid further to the end after the neshl expression of interest i want to share a 20year chart for this because i remember in the heart of the pc boom this was a hot stock. 19. 99 going into 2000. Almost nothing for much of this time, in fact about 70 here. It was about 60 there. 18 years earlier but obviously its gotten in favor with this bidding war here look at berkshire itself it has persistently underperformed the s p 500 over the last couple years. And i have it here with apple. Because apple right now in terms of its berkshires stake in apple represents 10 of the value of Berkshire Hathaway right now. And you can see obviously its been a big tailwind for berkshire stock. About but still not enough you have the modest underperformance there because perhaps because berkshire has tremendous amount of idle carbon the Balance Sheet not gaining value. Kind of interesting dynamics it wouldnt have been a big deal if it got tech data. But interesting that they decided to throw a bid in nonetheless. I guess, mike, with the massive cash balance that Warren Buffett has at the moment thats more of a call that he wants to have the powder drien if and when there is a market pullback as opposed to bidding up for something that relatively speaking has had a deeson run and he fanned the price as it were. Although i dont know he would wait for a broad market pullback but clearly deal by deal he is not finding great opportunities where he sees a lot of value out there to be able to turn cash into a business. There is no doubt about that that the market has run away from him in that sense. The other thing as we look at the chart and you think about clearly he is typically a Value Investor thats why he has lots of positions in banks, that apples rupp up whether that ceases to be in that bucket that he sees attractive in valuation terms. It will be very interesting to see whether he has added to his position during this recent spurt higher in apple shares of course, his Percentage Holding in a. M. Keeps going up because apple keeps buying back stock and presumably berkshire is not selling into that perhaps he is happy with the amount he owns which is a greater share of earnings for apple over time but definitely interesting to see the next disclosures. See you again later thanks. 40 minutes before the bell as you can see the s p off by a third of a percentage point. The nasdaq off a third of a percentage the point and the dow down as well after the break early demand for apple gifts appear to be high. One analyst says tim cooks big differentiator this Holiday Season may not be a product at all. Well discuss that. And later closing bell friend and apparel Industry Leader rick hell offen i do know has been outspoken about the impact of tariffs on retail. The grinch has stolen christmas from us. We dont know what else there is to steal. Has it really been that bad, though, rick mo timucdiscuss with h mh reo come on closing bell. Servicenow put our workflows in the cloud. This changes everything. Youre right sir. Everything. No not everything, i mean youre still blatantly sucking up to me gary. Brilliantly observed, sir. Always three steps ahead. Six steps ahead. Sixteen. So many steps. You done . A million steps ahead. Servicenow. Works for you. Welcome back to closing bell. Less than a month to go until christmas. And apple may have a runaway hit on its hands apple air pods pro pushing delivery dates for new orders out to early january that rush also reportedly prompting apple to double production with one manufacturer air pods not the only product in high demand. Shoppers taking to twitter complaining that apple watches at walmart selling out within minutes of the black friday sales launch so is apples supply squeeze a good or bad s