Trade, the president declining to provide more details on the negotiations with china this morning, saying, quote, well see what happens Broader Markets at the moment down about 0. 6 on the s p the dow is down 192 points the low of the session for the dow 250. So we are off the loan he lows t recovering a little bit in that final hour of trade. Joining us for the full first hour of the show is bespokes paul hickey. How you doing . Good. Do you think it makes sense well start on a soft footing given the great run we saw in november we saw a big strong run to close out the month of november here and dont put too much weight into the first trading day of the month. I dont know if you recall, but last december, we were up 1 on the first trading day of december and i think we all remember what happened the rest of that month. If we can get the opposite of what happened last december, ill take it fair enough lots to discuss with paul throughout the full first hour of the show. Lets focus in on the big stories were watching today bob pisani is covering the selloff Kayla Tausche has the latest headlines. And Frank Holland is following the impact on shippers lets start with bob and the selloff weakness in the ism is the issues the ism new orders index thats any fourmonth low. And it suggests softness in Capital Spending and maybe even Earnings Growth, particularly for industrials. So what this does is it measures the number of participants who reported increased customer orders compared to the previous monitor. And at 47 or so, thats down still, europe and china pmis, generally, theyve been better than expected, particularly today. Because we have two pmis above expectations and the u. S. Is below expectations not surprisingly today, two Big Industrial names are weak. All of them weak we also have Infrastructure Companies that are out there jacobs engineering, for example. Volca Vulcan Materials also on the weak side. Weve seen weakness in the Railroad Stocks like Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific but wilf, i think the most important thing is the u. S. Consumer remains strong and thats the reason were a near new highs. Were also following a number of trade headlines surrounding china, brazil, and argentina Kayla Tausche is on top of all of those headlines for us. And they are all related. President trump was characteristical lally cryptic t the prospects for a phase i deal this year. The chinese are always negotiating. Frankly, i could be other places that i could do all by myself and be even happier. And you understand what that means. But the chinese want to make a deal well see what happens the president tightened one screw on china by signing into law a bill backing hong kong protesters and tightening another on steel and argentina, in response to slamming their, quote, massive devaluation of their currencies, which is not good for our farmers, end quote. The white house caught offguard by trumps tweet has yet to formalize that policy on raising those tariffs, guys. Kayla, quite possible to see december 15th tariffs delayed or postponed, even without a phase i deal signed . It really depends on what happens in the next few weeks. Understand thing from officials current and former and people close to these talks are that the delay or cancellation of those december 15 tariffs was built into those talks back in october and that the white house signaled that it would do that certainly, that was on the table then it is expected that it will be on the table now but of course, they always say, the caveat, the president reserves the right to change his mind all right, kayla. Thank you for that todays cyber monday shopping event is expected to bring in 9. 4 billion in online sales according to adoby and as for the rest of the holiday weekend, a number of firms all citing america a big winner lets get to Courtney Reagan in bethlehem, pennsylvania. The orders come in and theyve got to ship out the goods, courtney reporter you know it, contessa and walmart is expecting that today will be one of its biggest days of the year, maybe it will set a record we have to see, theres still an awful lot of shopping to be done theres 1. 2 million square feet in this location its just one of six campuses that fulfill those online orders for cyber monday and beyond. But today is expected to be a record day in general overall for retail, as you mentioned there. We could see the most online sales that have ever been done in a single day in the United States on this day it was 69 million americans expected to shop but things have changed as far as the timing for cyber monday over the years we used to have to wait until we could get to work and use our Desktop Computers with highspeed internet to shop. So we saw peak sales happen during the day its expected to happen tonight between the hours of 7 00 and 11 00 p. M. Pacific time. Once the kids are in bed and all the chores are done and 30 of the sales volume will happen during that period of time got some early search trends so far from captify best buy is the number one searched Retailer Online those searches up 332 from last year walmart is number two. It was number one on black fl friday costco trading fairly strongly for a searched Retailer Online today as it did on black friday. But thanksgiving through cyber monday is really sort of this big blur of shopping nowadays. Q and 30 of total holiday sales are expected to be done over that fiveday stretch. Courtney, when you are comparing what happened on black friday, what happened on cyber monday, do you get the sense that these big retailers that we just saw, who have strong presence, both in bricks and mortar, and online, that they care where the sales come in reporter absolutely not, n contes contessa they just want you to shop at their stores or online they dont care it if you did it on november 1st. They offered those early deals at the end of october. They dont care if you do it now. They just want to capture the sales. Well see wants, but thats always why its a little bit hard to use one day as a barometer for the entire season. Because things are all over the map now. And you always have those lastminute procrastinators. I only have three gifts done total. So i have a lot more shopping to do court, thank you very much for that now, the thanksgiving holiday also kicks off a big weekend for shipping companies, if those boxes flying behind courtney werent enough to remind you of that Frank Holland back at hq with that story for us. The question this Holiday Season is can amazon deliver like, literally, can it deliver. Amazons selfdelivery of ecommerce packages will increase by 121 this Holiday Season. Thats according to the forecast from shipmate rix. Com. Its also the first without fedex as a partner and the shortest window between black friday and new years eve possible only 33 days about a week less than last year shippers last faced this in 2013 when ecommerce was only about half the size it is now. Fedex and u. P. S. Are expected to see singledigit increases to their volume despite the smaller window, while the post office is forecasted to see a doubledigit decline. Shipmate rix says thats largely due to zpon stamazon stepping us partner program. Instore pickup, another trend to watch about 15 of shoppers are expected to try it out this year its forecast to grow at a 25 , one out of four shoppers in 2020 back over to you frank, thank you very much for that now, stocks as we mentioned, trading lower throughout todays session. Were off the session lows but still down over 220 points on the dow for more, lets bring in jeff sought paul hickey still with us as well jeff, starting with you. Clearly a lot of these discussion points where its consumer related, a lot of good Activity Still going on. The data we saw this morning on the manufacturing side, pretty disappointing. As long as the negative data is confined to manufacturing, do you think the market can keep going higher i do. I think youre getting an early Christmas Gift with the selloff right here on friday and today it may extend into the middle of this week, but the hold stock market saw is if santa fails to call, the bears will roam on broad and wall it didnt play last year retail sales were hurt a little bit with the 20 decline from october into we actually identified that decline in early october, as well as the bottom in late december i think youre going to get better than expected retail sales, because youre not getting the 20 decline in the equity markets paul, you think that small caps are the ones to watch here. Theyve lagged for a while here were starting to see better performance from the small caps. Just today, in prior days, when you see doubts about trade or chinarelated headlines, small caps get killed relative to large caps today, theyre underperforming by a little bit, but lately, when weve seen these trade headlines come up the last few days, small caps havent been as poorly hurt. Their relative strength has also started to show a turn here. I think if we do start to see, you know, manufacturing notwithstanding todays weak ism manufacturing, we think its going to stabilize a little bit at these current levels and be good for the small cap space in general. The russell 2000 had what they called a golden cross a few weeks ago, where the 50day crossed above the 200day. And i think the small caps stocks have a lot more to run here in terms of the broader trade headlines you both mentioned, clearly, we havent had incrementally positive headlines over the past couple of days or the last week, but provided the december 15th tariffs dont go into effect and we get confirmation that theyre going to get delayed, does it matter if phase i is signed can the market rally in december in that scenario, jeff i think it can. I think the trade talks with china have hit a stall because of the bill that was signed, the human rights bill. I live in d. C. , im still pretty connected in the d. C. Beltway and im not sure whether the trade tariffs are going to go into effect or not, but i dont think theres going to be a phase i this here. When youre talking about the small cap stocks, youre saying its important that they start discounting these trade headlines, but why would they . Throughout this entire per d period, small caps have been disproportionately negatively impacted by any day over the past 18 months why would that change now why would the market start i think youre starting to see the market sense that were at level where things arent going to get any worse maybe we will see a delay in the december 15th declines and to jeffs point earlier about a golden cross for the russell 2000 normally in most case, a golden cross, that formation doesnt have a lot of predictive ability. In the case of the small caps, a year following, its much better than average returns for small caps gains 80 of the time. Jeff, you have an early christmas present, a buying opportunity. Where would you put money to work, for the shortterm investor just looking at the rest of this year . I still Like Technology and i like financials. And my father tells me, good things tend to happen to cheap stocks the Energy Complex is only up 5 on the year. I particularly like the, believe it or not, the Midstream Master Limited Partnerships and i think the small caps are getting a january effect in december and paul, for you, are you looking for a particular stocks that might go on your tax loss bounce list . You know, i think we havent really been playing that angle, particularly much, but i think on the course of getting to a sector basis, i would agree with jeff on financials i think the financial sector, weve been seeing much better performance for these names in the internals. And the large cap financials after the big banks this earnings season really broke out of what have been like multiyear consolidation phases. They have the room to raise their dividend payments. They have better than average yields already and they have the ability and, you know, the green light so to speak from the fed to incrementally raise those dividend yields. Jeff, thanks so much for joining us a pleasure. Good to see you, as always. Were down 224 points on the dow. A little bit more selling in the last ten minutes since the show started, but still off the low, which was down 254 points. Still ahead, its a down day for stocks as just discussed, but roku has been hit particularly hard on the back of a downgrad from Morgan Stanley. Well tell you whats behind that warning and after the break, the s p 500 on pace for its worst day since early october. Mike santoli heads to the telestrator with a look at the key trend lines to watch and take a look at our data tracker. The ism Manufacturing Index missing estimates in november with a reading of 48. 1 Construction Spending also missing the mark falling 0. 48 in october following a rise of half a . Closing bell is back right after this break whether youre out here on lte. Or here on a wifi hotspot. Xfinity mobile has more coverage to keep you connected to what matters most. Thats because its the only Wireless Network that automatically connects you to millions of secure wifi hotspots and the best lte everywhere else. And now get 250 off when you buy a new Samsung Phone during Xfinity Mobile beyond black friday. Plus, you can save up to 400 a year. Click, call or visit a store today. Welcome back to closing bell. We have 43 minutes left to go until the closing bell. The dow is off 0. 75 the nasdaq has declined more than a percentage point. Lets check in on the markets. Very quickly, down 4 , as contessa just said some individual market movers. Take a look at f. A. A. N. G. Stocks in the selloff. Facebook, apple, amazon, netflix, alphabet all lower today as investors sell out of some of the stocks that have been leading the rally on the back of those weak ism and Construction Spending numbers, industrial stocks have been hit particularly hard shares of boeing, honeywell and utx all lourwer. Lets send it to mike santoli for todays market dashboard air is thinner up at these recent heights for the market. Ill take a look at the field position as we pull back a little bit the slope is steep thats the slope of decline or expected decline in earnings forecast but that might not be that big a deal for the market next year. Well see. Vision is limited, very hard to predict the stock market, but people try well take a look at the distribution of forecast for next year. And insulation is key. The insulation of a very strong wealth effect on Consumer Spending so here you go heres a oneyear chart of the s p 5 h. The oneyear chart is stem cell starting to tell a story ill try to draw some semblance of a trend line. Really just to illustrate how we really have kind of stretched to the upper end of this band a lot of folks would basically say, this is the bottom part of this channel that weve be in for a while. It wouldnt be too surprising when you look at it like this to see the market curling lower and give back some of those gains. We had basically a full month without a proper pullback. In this context, not that big a deal i wanted to take a look at the u. S. Market, again, some International Indexes as well. This is the s p 500 just today compared to the allcountry world ins index excluding the u. S. Basically everything but the United States as well as the emerging markets and we have some outperformance today by the nonu. S. Indexes. Now, of course, the data was good in china and europe u. S. Data was the one that surprised to the downside. I like to look at the same relationship, these three assets from august 11th that was the low from the late summer selloff. And what you see is the rest of the world outperformed for much of this period, but now its basically a dead heat. So you see everything up between 6 to 7 . The rest of the world has kind of come back as the u. S. Has essentially sort of caught up by not going down as much in the last few weeks a lot of people said, hey, its a global rally thats why you can believe it. Its a little bit less of a global rally right now, but i think you have to give the rest of the World Markets some room here, because they have come off very dramatically from their lows, guys another key factor to watch from here is whether or not that worsening construction and manufacturing data is just confined to those areas. If you have it spreading out to different parts of the economy, that would be more of a concern. I think part of the premise of the rebound in the cyclical sectors is that the u. S. Manufacturing picture was also supposed to be bottoming so todays numbers said, hey, thats not really happening on time but i like to look at the fact that the tech stocks have been leading the way lower. You had the nasdaq underperforming today. That suggests this is a profittaking move and not in direct response to new economic fierce coming out of thatism number now 39 minutes before the bell and the dow is off 206 points, 0. 75 . The s p is following suit, down 0. 7 after the break, analysts say theyre getting more bullish on Cigarette Companies after the crackdown on vaping. Which name they say to buy now and later, Goldman Sachs could be on the verge of a change, but some shareholders lexai disappointe d. Each day our planet awakens with signs of opportunity. But with opportunity comes risk. And to manage this risk, the world turns to cme group. 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