Thanksgiving coma and the ending the threeday losing streak are a set of records around the corner or this rally a flash in the pan. First of all, welcome. Thank you. [ applause the man. The momentum killer i just drop the hammer on momentum up. We call these the ifbs they told me in your name that your name at hq is c. Quint. We might take the quint thing. So, quint, to answer the original question today was a flash in the pan december 15th columns. The december levies the tariffs, the market goes down i would think it trades down to 30, 90 or so handles from where we are now and then another conversation but today was a bounce from the market down three days steveo. I do believe the market will bounce back even the last two weeks of the year if he puts on the new tariffs. So i agree with that level too 3,000 roughly in the s p but the market who wants to he will is the market . Long onlies want to be long it long short hedge funds will underperform if the market trades lower so momentum is still on for the year end. I think its interesting i would say who wants to trade it . If you think about about what we had day or over daefr day. The smh up today the hemss are impossible to read what you can read is the dato data out this morning. Adp numbers clearly tell you whatever you want to say when we talk about the u. S. Consumer im not telling you the job market is falling out of bed. But the three month argument, the six month, nine months average. That trend is down jobless claims tomorrow. A benign indicator but two straight weeks of jobless claims terrible and the payroll number on friday i hate to play the role of dan nathan danny downer if you look at the ism Services Number again for people pointing out i guess guy it is in the camp. The macroisnt doing anything to get you excited. I agree with steve that ultimately as we say trying to game trade war rhetoric has been losing battle and the market wants to go up if you look at bullbear is sentiment the bulls are in charge. When you look at manufacturing pmis they are Getting Better when you look at the bigger scheme of things thats something. Looking at the united states, we have a strong consumer and lets just think about this for a second the president kicked this down the road many times. The last time he kicked it all the way a year out and our big reaction was were down 280 points. Right. Because of that i think you have to be a little more conscious of the idea that weve had an interesting and very successful earnings season we have gone through. Thats been strong and because of that that volatility move yesterday it moved the last couple of days merchandise, tuesday strong to the upside looking at that, carl, up to 17, okay 17. One moving in the marketplace. When you look at it from the perspective, okay what happens december 15th. Well there is a good chance we kick it around again dont get a whole lot done maybe a phase 1. Im not sure how big phase one is anymore in terms of the markets. We give a positivity to it but outside of that, carl i think it has. Who shorts the market injury its genius the he decided it up into phase one and future phases. Last year we made more progress on this trade this year yet the market screamed higher people are nervous about shorting how do you do that you get run over. Until yesterday we thought we had the trade announce zbloomt phase one. But even pushed out but the market spooked and you had the s p ral idea. But it was a minor spook. Not trying to interrupt but when you think about the move. 3 in 24 hours. And the volatility didnt tell me the world was spooked. The more important thing to me is that the s p had run 10 in 41 sessions and that to me tells me that the market feels good about a trade deal and yeah, i agree with everything you guys are saying this is a hiccup the last couple days we have seen this soemtsd in the last year thats not something you should trade on. That would be scary. Petes right. Earnings good. But Earnings Growth is slowing over the last couple years no denying that. The president is a wildcard. The adp number was the worst in nine years people think the fed has the back. Business activity was the worst since 09. Thats ten years. Think about where we were. You just said something the fed has their back. I dont think they do. If the Economic Data becomes worse you could have the fed come back in play even with limited ammo. Likely to go into easing mode than hiking. I think the risk is to ease i think the fed is probably out of right now based upon even just we had static data they are out of commission until the middle of next year. Our next guest says the bounce may not bounce to the new year chris harvey at wells fargo what do you mean. Our price price target is 3088 about pennsylvania 1 away. What kind of risk reward, upside, down sood. Limited upside and growing downside more importantly as we looked forward you squeezed a lot of juice out of in. Investment agreed credit spreads are 1007, 110 basis points thehealth premium looking at Single Digits next one, two, three years. I keep hearing my fathers voice in the back of my head dont screw it up. Youre up 20 . Did you do that a lot chris was that an issue going up. A lot of therapy. Years. All right whats the biggest positive thats on the horizon for the market then . Biggest positive . Weve been looking more at the negatives than positives because the positives have been the fed cuts rate. Fed is send sentiment poor now now its positive. Trading tariff needs to be to get dp five minutes, five days five months. And so were looking at the negatives. They are 401 k s look at my dad my mom, they have to take money out of the 401 k s if you look at the fed at some point in qe, not qe is going to end. Well have less liquidity in the beginning of next year more importantly i think peoples expectations are too high at this point and we need to ratchet things down and we havent talked about the Political Risk at this point. Chris ive asked this before but again, the u. S. Equity market went to vix 17 yesterday but me andreaering around 10 sfwloot bond yields that suckic moves major process. If that equity market wed talk about it every day on the volatility 10 backups moves on a daily basis. Is that concerning. Thats highly concerning if we see 1. 5 in the 10year risk aversion comes back to the fore. You have 10 basis points moves every day backup that tells you the market is jittery. If you see that catch a strong bid its hard to price risk assets sigh higher we continue to watch that day in and day out. But the problem is you went off a litany of things negative in the market the market asset them up and pit them do you feel like the theyre two for q1. Were bringing down Fourth Quarter estimates. All of 2020 all of the estimates are too high zero to 5 growth next year. And people are in the high Single Digits at this point. They have to come down. The 12month target if you publish one. Pacing ourselves at this point. Were putting. You see a down year next year. Not a down year but not a lot of great opportunity to the upside at this point next year is going to be the year you want to trade and trade your book. The opportunity will open and coalesce quickly well have a lot of spikes in volatility the decay will be fasts but a lot of opportunities will open up is there a sector you are looking at you say, you know, its moved but i think they have more room to run financials where is it youd say id look with less risk on but still risk in the market. Great question, great point. Upgraded banks in december. Theyve run up 35 we would love to see them pull back and if they do we jump back in financials in a place we want to put money to work longer term. You started this with the context of no growth or growth not that great what does that mean . Put a number on that whats the chief economist say whats bad growth. Bad growth its not bad growth its not great. Globally i think they are looking for 3. 2. What were looking for is in the 2s domestically and eps is zero to 5 . Its not negative. Its just not great. And how do you price multiples higher after you brought rates down credit spreads down after you had the fed cutting rates and after we priced in so much good news . Once phase one is done i dont think we have phase two for at least 12 months. The market knows and understands that, right . I. I dont think so. Look at what we have seen the last couple days phase one is done, done, done. Its not done. Market pulse back. We may not get phase one done until march. And now the question is somebody said this earlier is what are the expectations . Is phase one going to come in in line or is it going to be beat expectations or less its hard for phase 1 to beat expectations at this juncture. Chris thanks. Thank you. Appreciate that. With that you cant say sentiment is topee, right the with narratives like that. Once we get a trade deal dwun when what screwed me up is dwiegsz it up into phases. They pushed me out into when you sell nacelle the news event we are seeing estimates dictate direction. Wherever the estimates are thats where you go. But i believe from now to the end of the year the markets will move hire. 3250. Tim. I dont want to put too much pressure on chris and he is not a chief economist. But the u. S. Economy growing at 2 this market is Child Support 1. 7 and longterm rates and where the fed is going i think what worked has been the bar bell of discretionary and the high growth names and then go for value some of the industrial names if we grow at 2 next year and i think its 1. 5 to 1. 75 but i think you have that dynamic. Remember also the breadth of the rally has been in every corner i think thats whats supported this market and i think you have to be fearful of that leaving you soon. Yeah and i think the president is a wildcard. I think he feels and said this he has equity to play with the stock market giving him the rally. I think he will use that equity the next month or so injury in his mind he says to himself in the sprung this is when im getting this thing on course thats when elections are won. From now until then it can be dicey. I think the vix at wherever we close is way too cheap. And involumes in the Derivatives Market to cases pinpoint last thing, financials even with the run carl, they are cheap and potential there for much higher levels. All right, guys coming up, we go after hours action in slack and rh both companies had results. Were breaking down the headlines. Later on oil prices getting energized in the session is there opportunity in this beaten down secretary summer stick around we are live from times square in new york city. And there is a lot more fast money after this. Guess who just got reinstated well, not officially. Nervous . Yeah. Yeah me too. Dont worry about it, well figure it out. Ill see ya in there just ok is not ok. At t has americas best network, now with our best plans, at our best prices, starting at 35 a line for 4 lines. New from at t. Well back to fast money. Time for earnings whip backup shares of slack and rh formerlily known as restore ace hardwareway on the move after reporting results. Full Team Coverage meg tyrrell. Deedra bosa in statutes San Francisco with details, dee. Carl slacks has to pull in more investors and paying competitive environment. The the call under way and Stewart Butterfield threw shade at microsoft pointing out the overwhelming of majority of customers are office 365 customers he says they choose slack because of the use are experience acknowledge being the microsoft 20 million active daily users questioning how its calculated saying they could be forced migrations the stock is it turning around and gaining ground in the after hours as the call continues. The Company Announcing a change to the board of directors that i want to mention. Michael mcnamara joining the firm and one stepping down. Pete, the back and forth between those two microsoft and slack interesting. Slack trying to attack the competition which makes sense. They should go after them. But the reality of the story is that microsoft own this is they have a growth rate far better whether forced or not people are use attention teams. Nef a huge advantage 20 million daily active users for microsoft. But i will say this about slack which ive been critical, theyre getting closer to some day making money i dont like in this market we talked about the market a minute ago the wide range of the market in a market like this carl i think its difficult to own companies that dont make money. They have great revenue, growth. Still arent Positive Side like uber lift zblooift you are sighing that microsoft gained 7 million user since july. Right. I dont care if its forced migration she shouldnt have brought that up. Then that makes me think they cant win. Because if people are forced to play microsofts game they have to win theyre the big dog and own the space. Long microsoft. I think pete is right. Once they make money you could see this thing tick off the bottom but until then id rather have microsoft that has a lot of levers as wilf would say. Levers. I think theyre levers but i wouldnt say microsoft on relative basis Everything Everything you say valuation is not close. Its a different business and composite with microsoft but slack problem is the valuation and i agree with pete you have to make money here. Quick though, the stock given in quarter, actually pretty good by their standards paid customers up 30 year over year. You can go through margins better, although still clearly lutesing money on the right trajectory i thought given the run the suffolk had to the downside, the short interest, given what we heard, in stock should be over 23 given the quarter and its not close the market doesnt like this i think thats the tell. The stocks should be higher its not thats all you need to know. The news alert this afternoon on boeing. Phil lebeau has that phil. Carl the chief engineering for boeing John Hamilton resigning from the company most notably recently known as the person sitting next to dennis mulan rk on capitol hill for a couple of congressional hearings and asked a number of questions about engineers or employees at boeing expressing concerns about the development of the 737 max so, again, John Hamilton, chief engineer for Boeing Commercial Airplanes is resigning the company says he planned to retire last year he pushed it off they said to work on helping get the max back his departure now the latest executive to leave the company as they continue to wrestle with the 737 max and this max saga whatever you want to call it, crisis going on since march, well its continuing to have an impact this time its in the form of united aerials ordering not boeing airplanes but airbus airplanes. One factor is that boeing did not have a plane to compete with the a 321 xlr, a long range plane replacing boeing 757 for united airlines. Now you have a number of airlines including several in north america. United american, jet blue they ordered the new airplane from airbus becauseany cant arrowhead one from boeing. Boeing doesnt have a plodle to compete with the xlr it was widely expected they would announce one perhaps at the Paris Air Show earlier this year but clearly they are focused on the max right now and said they have not made a decision on quota middle market airplane so as a result you have airbus racking up another order and again boeing says no decision has been made on whether or not it will come up with a middle market plane one last thing look at shares of airbus versus boeing this year. And you will see a dramatic split between the two shares and people will say, well, look, boeing Still Holding in well despite the fact gnat max is not being delivered. But here is the difference guys. Look at the orders that have been racked up this year 721 by airbus. Negative 95 by boeing. That says it all why investors a at a minimum have said im going with airbus for the foreseeable future as opposed to boeing. Phil appreciate that phil lebeau executive the departures obviously order disparity we dont know what they owe the carriers later on a thats cramers big point why is it hanging in there. There is a couple of reasons including the duopoly and not places to go the order book for boeing is robust and the company i think has been reasonably in guiding expectations on the max and coming back online they have 400 planes in inventory you are seeing them crank them out united and a couple other air handlers people are critical of they being exposed to boeing and give delta credit for not having any exposure. I think some of in is also hey about united trying to throw Something Back at boeing because this is a difficult point for united. You know whats interesting, i could make this analogous is the china supply chain issue what tim said that companies trying to decrease dependency on boeing and thats going to be going forward. Thats only increasing so i think that boeing has hupg in there but ultimately its probably a tremendous headwind to two to five years out that were not thinking about. Where do they go . I hear you you look at the relative value chart that chart has been priced if. Thats yesterdays chart. Because there is still stuff hanging out there. Was it enough of an executive departure . Is there deeper cuts through the executive team do they want the ceos head at this point where are they going through this i dont think its over by a long shot. I was going to say basically i look at the cart from mul phil and say i understand the arthur having i look at boeing what else could they throw them at this point . Thats my point. People start buying a different plane the same way that china wants once the trade deal is over apple migranted a way from chf 50 other companies 50 S P Companies thinking how to diversifying the supply chain. Now you see it wastler. But the Free Cash Flow we will always watch. Boeing will stand strong with that look at the backlog, unbelievable so its still think you look at it. Asset duopoly. I get that. Which is different than leaving china to go are wfr you want. China was a monopoly. Not a duopoly. It was, but thats over lets get back to earnings Restoration Hardware in red after results. Meg tyrrell back at hr q. The stock off slightly after a big beal on the bottom line but they had a huge run in the quarter helped by Berksh