Anymore. A lot of Global Markets are closed or for boxing day. Uk, germany, france, australia, italy and hong kong. I say it every year. Boxing day has nothing to do with boxing as a sport as a child, i always thought that u. S. Futures, we have some green arrows dow looks like it would open up about 30 points higher 10year note opening about 1. 97. New this morning, china says it is in close touch with the United States on signing a phase one trade deal both sides are 12i8 going through necessary procedures before signing despite progress on trade, tensions remain. Meantime, saying the phase one trade deal is, quote, an enormous step in the right direction. It is coming. It is coming it is done in your mind what we are going to get is what weve gotten. Phase two, i wouldnt think about it again like ever, ever no. Let it go. Gone for good oregon for the election . I think you need a change in leadership of china before we see anything significant even if trump wins in november of 2020, we are about to be in 2020 you think we would have a conversation about a phase two deal we might but protection of intellectual property. We do have evidence. You see this next piece of news already because of the phase one trade deal here is the impact michelle was eluding to you can still be an official anchor you can. Because i read through the script in advance. I like that you should be an official anchor what she is eluding to is that soy bean shipments continue to soar new data suggesting that imports surged to 2. 5 million tons from 1. 15 million the month earlier score that one up. Brazil got a huge market share from the United States china won because they didnt impose tariffs on u. S. Soybeans. They were much more cost competitive. One of the reasons they wanted to do the tariffs at the time. This will please him can china buy as much as theyve pledged. We are talking the dollar value. Swinging around in place wildly at the time. We are talking about the number of tons. You are talking about the idea when the numbers come out how will you know because theyll buy x number of tons right meantime in hong kong overnight. Police fired tear gas and pepper spray to disperse crowds in nearby shopping malls. Crowds shouted at Police Officers saying a catering restaurant opened a free buffett for residents in support of the residents. It has estimated to serve more than 500 people. Did everybody get some good gifts . Did that work out at the table here beautiful socks beautiful socks too no. But perfectly happy. No returns . Is everybody going to be pleased with mine . Not for any reason. Lets tell you about some early retail numbers out overnight. The total u. S. Retail sales rose 3. 4 between november 1 and Christmas Eve. That is about the midpoint of the range of estimates on line sales prizing nearly 19 compared to growth of 1. 2 of in store sales. Saying digital accounted for 14. 6 of total sales a new high thanksgiving was six days later, which pushed back Holiday Shopping the survey found that half of consumers finished their shopping after the black friday weekend. Amazon said it had a record breaking Holiday Season as customers ordered billions worldwide. The company said the number of items delivered with prime one day and sameday delivery nearly quadrupled most popular categories include toys and games, fashion, home and beauty the second Holiday Season kicks off as consumers make returns. A survey found that 70 of people plan to return some of their gifts. Nearly 20 expect to return more than half. Did you see that number a tough crowd. My wife would tell you im the toughest of the crowd. We dont even do gifts because im so picky i often return the gift and it would upset everybody. I dont really like gift cards i think it is a little thoughtless. So i dont know how i feel about all of this. How high does Online Shopping end up ultimately . 14. 6 to me sounds low but we live in new york city where a lot of stuff gets delivered. If we are counting picking up at the store, which is now growing, the execution of the transaction on an app. A third to 50 will be on line usually this year, usually we have some horror story about how packages didnt get delivered and problems this year, you didnt have those problems very smooth that was the good news. You read about 90,000 packages stolen in new york city because they are out there following the ups guy. I assume that is in theboroughs. How often have you seen a ups truck take over a side walk like a warehouse and reorganize what is going on. I can imagine someone goes to lunch and those packages disappear. And they say people follow around the delivery guy, once you are in the package room. It is not an apartment it is just a package room. Thats where they get stolen big problem. Other news on Christmas Eve boy, is it big in Silicon Valley and the world of uber. Former uber ceo officially stepping down from that board. Effective at the end of the year said he sold all of his stock in the company he founded 10 years ago. Leaving to focus on the new business and endeavors he launched Cloud Kitchens which rents out space to restaurants uber has not said who will fill his board seat look at shoares of that company we saw a little bit of a sign coming we would start to sell down those shares i dont think we necessarily appreciated it at this time. This is part of a larger effort of the company it must be almost devastating for him. It has to feel like a major divorce. This is like giving up the baby it is one thing to be pressed to the side. Another to say, im out. Im really out what may have driven him to do this is to sit in a board room and have perhaps no power nobody listening to you . Whatever you think the strategy is. Clearly so far afield from where he wants it to be. It has been a complicated situation for the management of uber when they first came in. Part of the effort and the purpose of bringing the new Management Team in was to separate themselves from the past you had this complicated dance where hes on the board and yet in public. Ive interviewed him on the program and deal book and other places he has to say that regulators and the public who are upset about how this company used to operate. Not the nicest things. He was always trying to dance this fine line with travis on the board. I would see that entire experience had to be uncomfortable. This is on that very day where he didnt go up on the podium and ring the bell. People could say im going to get laughed out of town for saying this. People saying hes got a billion dollars. What can he be sad about trust me, it doesnt matter how much money you have. Just like us as they say this is as emotionally scarring as anything. When you walk auway with a lot o money, it helps cushion the scar and for the company, the fact that he has sold down his entire stake. He is off the board. A new year for the company to say, we dont have that stock overhanging the market every day. For him, personally look at this chart now. If you are an investor, it is trying maybe to figure out if it is in the bottoming process. That is like a technical thing to say the question im asking is that another component of this is that travis knows something about the potential and prospects where the company is going, right for that, i wouldnt jump to that conclusion because hes got privilege for more information no, no. Not something horrific he probably feels like uber eats is a sinkhole. His new enter prize is to support the uber eats and post mates to be the value edit piece. As opposed to be shuttling it around it is a hard company to make it work. An amazing thing. I think when we talk about 5g, people say whats going to happen under 5g . We have no idea but remember that uber couldnt exist until we had 3g and 4g wait and see what happens with technology think about uber in that context of the changes in telecom and communication and what can be done when data goes and moves much faster than it used to. All right i want to talk more about that in a minute. Okay. When we come back, politics playbook for the new year. Well tell you what to expect with the impeachment of President Trump and what it means for the trade war. Squawk box will be right back. Yes im stuck in the middle with you, no one likes to feel stuck, boxed in, or held back. Especially by Something Like your cloud. Its a problem. But the ibm cloud is different. Its open and flexible enough to manage all your apps and data securely, anywhere, across all your clouds. So it can help take on anything from rebooking flights on the fly, to restocking shelves on demand, without getting in your way. What are you doing back there, junior . Since were obviously lost, im rescheduling my Xfinity Customer Service appointment. Ah, relax. I got this. Which gps are you using anyway . A Little Something called instinct. Been using it for years. Yeah, thats what im afraid of. He knows exactly where were going. My whole body is a compass. Oh boy. The my account app makes todays Xfinity Customer Service simple, easy, awesome. Not my thing. Trade has been a center piece of the agenda this year. Pry oriti pry orities. Here is what to expect in 2020 reporter to paraphrase winston churchill, it is either the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning as the president ramps up his campaign. Three things to watch in 2020. First, the president survives impeachment. Conventional wiz come says an Impeachment Vote in the house will be followed by acquittal in the senate which means the president will stay in office for all of 2020. About everything about the trump era has been wildly unpredictable. Second, legislative let down he began with efforts to repeal obama care which failed. Slashing regulations not much left on his leg slative agenda democrats are not likely to pass the authorities in his Election Year third, all about that base the president will campaign the same way he governs and the same way he won in 2016 with a laser focus on his political base. Hes never topped 46 . He knows he needs every voter he had last time. He doesnt have much chance of converting those hell see an emotional, divisive election talking markets now, joining us, chief Investment Partner and on set, managing partner and chief Investment Officer good morning to you both we are sitting on track for the s p 500 giving you a 30 plus total return i didnt hear a lot of people say it is going up 6 or 7 where do we stand now . Did we do too much this year to leave it for next year sure. The markets wasnt expecting much for the markets everyone was a little concerned about what might happen. It was really a fed driven market we think the fed cutting rates really drove markets a whole higher a lot of the news around the trade negotiations especially here in the last 60 days has helped move markets a whole lot higher we are in a position now where it is a lot of momentum on the back of stocks the high returns are behind us but will close out a strong year jason, that is how the map seems to work in terms of valuations right now we are going to grow from record levels of profits. The market tends to find a way to get higher one way or another. How do you think investors ought to be thinking about next year which is the direction of surprise away from that consensus that would get low singledigit returns the good news is while the fed is unlikely to deliver the rate cuts. We have an economy growing about 2 and corporate earnings where we are down slightly and should pick up. Aswe look at market. Typically stock prices follow earnings if earnings are going to grow somewhere mid to upper Single Digits that is good news the important thing to think about, its really reality versus expectations. Going into 2020, the hurdle is a little higher. We are not going to get the fed cutting Interest Rates the expectations for the economy are fairly balanced. We saw that recession was on everybodys mind right now, people have Higher Expectations for the economy and what is happening in the corporate profits. A higher hurdle. I think the direction looks okay if things come in below current expectations, we might get a little volatility. This year was a great year. It is going to be hard to beat that are there areas will that outperform versus others lower leverage, lower earnings we are focused on some of the less cyclical sectors too. When you look at the last month and a half, most of the year, everything was moved higher. You couldnt lose based on where you were allocated what is moving is that Global Growth will be better than expected we are of the view that is maybe priced in too much right now we are talking a bit more of an approach as it relates and focused on Higher Quality business not necessarily sectors or individual names but just those that are a bit stronger of maybe weathering the volatility next year you are worried about potential rising of the Interest Rates or a general rule of thumb . More a general rule of thumb. We are overdue for a correction of 10 generally happens every 18 months the last time that happened was end of last year, certainly. We think next year with political volatility and expectations that arent necessarily realistic we think we are due for pull backs and adding exposure. From an individual perspective, if somebody came into this year with the asset allocations set, you have a lot more stock now than you probably had in your target allocation. Do you think that will be dominant to trim back and put it somewhere else or are we in a mode where, hey, the market broke out in a year and a half range and the market will ride it until otherwise i think the trend is your friend i think most folks are looking at the allocated assets right now. The market is refocused on what matters. Focused on the economy Interest Rates are still low i think that set up is good for stocks with a medium term view our council to clients is to look a month out looking at the general reaction of the crowd and how they are handling it, people are pretty comfortable where they are starting to unseat wra we have not had much of that recently. Often times history has shown and not in a big end here. Typically with a strong year in the market, the following year is okay. Well see what happens it is true. Things dont usually fall apart after that 20year we had that tough Fourth Quarter last year. Well leave it there thank you both a lot more coming up. Your top water cooler stories. Do we have some including a theater chain exec tispeaking ot against netflix and why the organizers of burning man are suing the government ive never been but id like to. Sort of on my list well talk about that and more and whether i should go or not tweet at us. Well be right back. This is a historic moment. Demand has never been higher for what we do. Creating compelling, engaging, and informative content and experiences. With this merger, viacomcbs will be one of the largest and most influential content creators in the world. I know we can deliver on the full potential of this amazing new company. But where do i even start . To gain muscle i know we can deliver on the maybe ill just go to the gym tomorrow. I work a lot and barely have any time to myself. It takes forever to get to work and come home. I wish personal trainers werent so expensive. Now, with the 30 day fitness app its like having a personal trainer in my pocket. I can work out wherever, whenever and however i want. I gained muscle with fitness plans tailored to me. Try the 30 day fitness app today. Apple card. Is a new kind of credit card, created by apple, so its simple and transparent with a new level of privacy and security. It lives here and here. And it will save you 6 on products at apple; like iphone, apple watch, airpods pro and so much more. Apply in as little as a minute, right in the wallet app. Welcome back right when we were going to break, i was talking about my interest in going to burning man. Trying to talk me out of it. Burning man organizers are suing the federal government to recover millions they say the bureau of Land Management overcharged them in black rock city black rock company that produces the event says it is tired for waiting for the government to provide justification for the nearly 3 million it charges to hold the event in the desert about 100 miles north of reno. Providing Law Enforcement and oversight a the the event. In addition to the fee of 3 of the gross receipts is that unfair . It is not a fixed price they want a piece of the action you think with that they want to be paid for. All kinds of issues out there. It sounds more like the organizers feel that they are not getting a return or it is gouging in some way. It appears they have done better and better. Theyve grown over the years. It may be in the beginning, it went with a percentage it wasnt very big easier than having a flat fee. Now they see, wait a minute. We are giving away the store out west, its a mess when you see the google gods and musk and these people there, that it is too much. If i show up, is that the high sign it is over. In their fancy winnebegos they go in the tents. I want to do the whole desert thing with the mask and the goggles the mad max thing. Not what it is. Where it is going now, im sure very different we should do squaucwk in the desert id love to watch that from my living room like squash from davos. That would be peek burning man. Well talk to the producers. Everyone loves to work the last week of august. Well all go to burning man, right . You have to go to betterly early while everyone is partying and getting high do they do that there piles of drugs. The chief executive of ceneworld says net flex left the group from income from the release of irishman. Netflix said all Major Companies were offered the film. Many, including cineworld declined to show them the release window the underlying premise is that it would have been a Box Office Hit if it had been rele