Coronavirus confirmed in the u. S. New york, new jersey and connecticut are banning all gathering over 50 people and closing dine in restaurants and bars following that recommendation from the cdc. U. S. Airlines are seeking 50 billion dollar in government assistance and if approved, it would be the industrys first broad bail out since after the september 11th attacks we have full Team Coverage this afternoon. Bob is monitoring conditions at the new york stock exchange. Rick is out at the cme watching the bond market. Bob, well begin with you. Third trading halt in the last six trading sessions. Thats this morning after the open 9 30 or so. 15 minutes the s p down 7 these trading halts have, at least, served to slow the markets down a little bit and do bit put a bit of a break on things well keep an eye on that. Were continuing to see this bifercation in the market. Health care and staples are out performing this has been the trend since thursday here. Market gainers, if you look at some the consumer groups, rite aid says they are working the white house to offer testing in car parking lots kroger has been doing great. Clorox got an upgrade. Some are calling for trading holiday. We ought to stop for a few days or few weeks Stacy Cunningham at the nyc says no its important for the markets to remain open she tweets this afternoon and for them to function in fair and orderly manner as they have been she says closing the markets would not change the upside lining market. Finally, here is the new new normal as i walked in this morning. This is what i saw at the nyse people coming up to us and checking our temperature a lot of questionnaire feeling okay got a fever. Youve been outside the United States recently. This is what the world looks like now back to you. Yields have been dropping sharply again today. Rick is all over the action at the cme. Hi, rick hi. We had four sessions worth both dollar and Interest Rates were higher looks like well break on both of those if you look at ten year note yields you can see were visiting the low end of todays range as we hover around 73 basis charts minus 54 is the low close from a week ago the low intradate yield was minus 31 you want to keep those two numbers in mind. The yield curve is flattening. We lost almost nine basis points today. Most of that at the behest of the long end you want to pay close attention. As for whats beginning on in high yield, we have a surrogate for that lets look at the hyg. Right now its the low e yield since february 26th. Back to the march 2008 the credit crisis is the definitive historic marker for that these spreads are wider. The dollar index is up on the year the dollar down a bit. Its hovering around 105 losing some ground on that safe harbor trade kelly, back to you thanks very much. Ive been trying to gauge all day talking to senior bankers at different firms all day. The response to the feds last night and the answers are not good the best thing i heard was it will work. It will take time. I asked somebody else. They said is anything better today in terms of being narrower in spread and the answer was no. There wasnt much take on that which may be good news compared to the morning where they took down 129 billion the afternoon they took down only 19. Huge submissions for these fed treasury purchases as we described all day. The fed is in the market during day and a series of purchases of 40 billion dollar of treasuries and Mortgage Backed securities the market continues to call for the fed to do more were hearing repeated calls for the fed to get involved in the commercial paper market and other directed lending this needs to be done perhaps to Certain Industries one of the things we can tell you is the outlook for the u. S. Economy now has changed dramatically we did a fed survey over the weekend. Now theres a 67 probability of a recession in the next 12 months that is up from a 41 already elevated in january. Not really a big hit in first quarter. Now look at the Second Quarter where you have a big negative there of minus 1. 8 on an annualized basis going flat in the Third Quarter and finally you get a rebound in the Fourth Quarter this is upon available information. Now i hate to provide even more news but forecasters at the ucla anderson forecasting shop there put out a release saying the u. S. May already be in recession right now according to their gauge of the Economic Data kelly. Steve, i have one follow up question the fed today said it was going to do about a half trillion dollars of repo. That emergency liquidity or funding. Then came the news they accepted just 19 billion worth of bids they offered 500 billion but only 19 billion of it was taken up what does that tell us well, let me go back. That was the second offering they offered a trillion in repo today and in the morning they took up 129. 500 billion is a fed proxy for infinity offering. We will offer you as much as you need thats the way to think about 500 billion. They dont mean 500. They dont know if its needed 500 is their gauge of the most ever that the market could need. Theres as much ample supply as may be needed. The 19 is a good sign. Its not a good sign the fed felt the need to come in with a second repo action today it may be a good sign that in the afternoon they only took down 19 billion. Going to have to watch theese markets. Youll have to be on the phone talking to people saying some of these markets are broken and the way to think about what the fed did last night is really focused on getting these markets to work because the end of the day nothing really matters if the u. S. Dollar funding markets arent working great info. We appreciate it thank you so much, sir stocks are plunging today shes chief market at global infestments. Mark, your characterized friday bounce as the legitimacy will be tested you were right this is a test of its legitimacy it is were getting back the gains that were made on friday and we havent closed yet for the day obviously, its dispointing to see th disappointing to see that. Holding its own with the fed intervening the way it did yesterday. Until we have some handle around the number of cases is going to begin to decelerate. Well have to live with these bouts of volatility for good or bad. The market is over sold at the juncture that implies we could on any day or hour see a significant ricochet rally it will be challenged by any kind of follow through unless we get confirmation, even perhaps starting in italy that the number of new cases being reported subsides. Theres monetary stimulus in the system theres some fiscal similar plus coming in the form of the package that was moved through the house on friday night. You dont get a market to turn around they could be helpful. You need to see some progress on the health front before people have any confidence to go out and buy and buy new cars and do anything other than go to the Grocery Store and load up on staples and paper goods. Youre right. The fed is here to ensure the markets are functioning properly the injection of liquidity is whats needed. Once we see the cases peak, once we see the cases start to decline, some of fear and panic were seeing in the markets will begin to subside at that point, things the fed has done will come into play more and allow it it to be maybe a stronger recovery. Were not going to see the market stable ieds until the Health Issues and that peak number of cases is reached mark, the dow has lost roughly a third of its value the russell has lost more than that can you envision a situation where it loses another third of its value . Obviously in this environment, anything is possible however, you mentioned a third that happens to be roughly what we typically see in the draw down and the equity market with a recession. In my view, at this point, equities are presenting a compression in valuation and price that largely have pulled forward the odds of a recession which are increasing as steve talked about seems likely well have one negative quarterly print while we would see lower levels, i think investors should leg into certain very high quality franchises that have been sold off in this environment because i think 12 months hence they will find it to be very rewarding. Begin to leg in that suggests do it gradually. Kind of dollar cost averaging your way in because youll never hit the bottom most definitely we cant say for certain we have bottomed but we may be bottoming or the process thereof and i think its very difficult two in all in are you starting to nibble victoria or not in. Dedid start to do that towards the end of last week i think you can find opportunities that are strong names. They have strong Balance Sheets. You know that will be able to ride through this. This will be a Good Opportunity to start adding to your portfolio. We did it with existing names like apple, amazon, microsoft. We brought in new names. Service now is name that we just brought in the Companies Moving more towards people work at home. This is a great test of that for companies around the globe well see more opportunities there. Look for companies that could not necessarily take advantage of the moves in the market that is going on now but actually will come back and be stronger all right we have to leave it there. Kelly. Todays sell off is triggering Circuit Breakers again this morning freezing trade its been a wild market. Joining me now to make sense of it all is terry duffy. Rick is not down there on the floor. You guys closed that up a couple of days ago. What do policy makers need know about this Market Action i think we need to have coordination i know a lot of people are saying maybe the market should shut down. Lets talk about that for 30 seconds or less. Whats important is you dont know if youll have pents up demand for buying or pent up demand for selling everybody come said on this show and said it historically, we dont know what numbers will be. Today, as you know, its 5 overnight. Then it goes 7, 13, 20 after 20 youre halted we should go 7, 13 and halt. Or 7, 10 and halt. We dont know whats going to happen im not talking my own book. Im thinking we tighten it up a bit. Let me stop you on this thought. Why . What is it about the trading behavior today that tells you we shouldnt let markets go that 13 or that 20 down in one session. Are you basically saying the liquidity has gotten so bad that the Circuit Breakers need to be tightened up no. Not saying that. Were dealing with something we have never seen before were not dealing with the financial crisis as you and your guests continue to talk about. Were dealing with something completely unknown when you deal with unknowns, you should look to tighten it up to make sure the public has an ability to manage the risk but at the same time not let the risk run wild. Thats the reason im saying that not because of ill liiquidity here is what im trying to understand what would tighten that up accomplish if youre saying we dont want to close things nothing it would accomplish a couple of things you have a lot of people including scott wapner tweeting the market should be closed. My point is that would be wrong to close the marketplace you have etfs that are trading outside of these bans that are becoming leading indicators how is this even possible . Tamper the volatility. Thats an interesting point too. We have taken to watching the dow, s p if the markets were open, this morning was a great example. Theyre halted down. I think its 5 but the dow would be down 11 now. I can see that because the etf trades because of 4 00 we should not allow for those etfs to trade and give us the information any way. Kind of undermines the point of having the futures halted or not halted but limited you got to coordinate what the underlying security markets and something. Determine whing whatever thes equity market is going to do thats me point. Youre saying there is no im thinking about it from policy makers point of view, theres no liquidity problem youre seeing a ton of action in terms of people showing up to trade. Youre saying for the general public, maybe a way of taking some of the pressure out and volatility out of this situation is by having Trading Halted if we hit Something Like 13 instead of 20 thats all im saying. Theres so much money being managed, you dont know if youll hit a massive amount of stops that hasnt transacted yet in the overall market. You should lever the markets open so people can transact. Is this is a virus that we know nothing about and we should let the professionals tell us what to do. We should think about coming up with some new solutions so people can transact business thank you thanks for joining us today. Terry duffy. There is no indication when demand will rebound and when people will start rebooking flights as opposed to cancelling them most of these stocks are off of the low of day they did come back about an hour ago when the Industry TradeAssociation Says were looking between 50 and 58 billion no indication whether or not that is going to be received on capitol hill or whether not its the beginning of a negotiation when you look at specific stocks, take a look at United Airlines the reason were showing you united is because last night they said well cut our capacity by 50 it was the message that really stood out. He was very blunt. He said the worst is yet to come we do not see this Getting Better day day by day it continues to get worse take a look at ryan air. They are talking about grounding the majority of their fleet within the next week thats because youve got a number of country ies over ther whether its poland or ukraine they say were not taking flights outside countrys border Virgin Atlantic which is 49 owned by delta, they may be giving unpaid leave up to eight weeks for many of its staff members. Were in the midst of trying to see the airline come up with two things one, way for their government to help them out through the crisis and two, whether or not they have to look at cost cuts or furloughs. Offered eight weeks of unpaid leave. That doesnt sound much of an offer to be honest with you. No. Whats your alternative . Okay we dont need you anymore. Were going to furlough you or lay you off. Its a tough choice if youre an employee it is an eightweek furlough. What other measures are you seeing airlines take to combat whats been going on with the virus . I think one of the more interesting thing s the airlines are trying the kwoiconvince thoe who are still flying that when you get on a plane, weve seen the reports of its not save to get on plane look what delta does delta hired a company out of boston its called earth safe, chemical alternatives and they spray a chemical on the aircraft and we talked with one of the executives earlier today in the parking lot at cnbc. He gave us a demonstration and plained how this works s one of the benefits of this technology is how fast it is disinfect an airplane. It takes three or four minutes the benefit there is they can use it to disinfect the planes not only in the evenings but also between every turn and it Takes Minutes until the passengers can reboard the airplane perhaps one of the more interesting thing s that when we first reached out this company, our producer reached out to them, they were like were not sure people want to talk about this now the airlines and other Companies Say we want to let the public know we are disinfecting aircraft cabins but other companies are using this technology thank you very much the Federal Reserve took some drastic emergency steps last night hasnt done much to calm markets today. The stocks are down about 10 for the dow. The session lows, dow was down about 28000 points were not back there yet we are down more than 2,000 points. Chris, as pessimistics we say the bond guys are, we were just speaking about an hour ago about whether were going to see maybe three months or six months or seven months of negative gdp owe are talking about something worse than that. I may have engaged in a little hyperbole but the world is running that way at the moment im shocked that some of my colleagues on wall street are already calling for real gdp to fall 5 . 5 Percentage Points in the Second Quarter it shows you how extreme this has gotten were not even going to get growth until april if its down 5 in the Second Quarter. Up 1 , third up 2 the fourth then gdp will fall this year, 0. 5 as the fed measures it. Looking back to the 80s its its only fallen two other years like this. It would be dramatic im hopeful this is like a coronavirus recession. In other words, its not a standard recession where it can build on itself and the job losses can build and theres a downward spiral when your neighbor loses a job im hopeful once the economy gets well, gets over the virus, activity can come back faster than were thinking. Thats my hope im trying to be a bit more optimistic now that im losing so much money in the stock market today one thing, if its worth reflecting on. Theres a reason why youre hearing a lot of people call for thousands tlar checks to households who wouldnt be in favor of that policy theres a big difference between a recession that comes on because the economy is changing and needs to go through Creative Destruction and the Business Cycle is ending. This is the kind where things are chugging along and something hits you out of the blue wouldnt you say the policy response should be different than Something Like 08, 09 you want to punish the banks, for example for being bad actors you want to make sure the businesses who are minding their own business, so to speak, dont have to go belly up because this happened to them yeah, i hear you. I think theres too much Risk Management at play here where people are trying to get out in front of actual events much the too early. For instance, i think the number of coronavirus cases in new york, i saw this morning was 950.