Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20240713 : vimarsana.com

Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20240713

The state department advising u. S. Citizens not to travel internationally and return home. They raised the advisory level to four. Huwan which was ground zero reported its first day without a new case we have full Team Coverage for you here bob is tracking another wild session for stocks rick, is watching the bond market for us. Kayla has the very latest on the action this d. C. We start with you bob. An important thing here today is even though 50 point swing in the s p 500 would have been insane a month ago, its kind of normal now its lower volatility than what we have been seeing recently i think thats the key point about whats been happening. If you look at the leadership, its also different. For once were seeing, for example, bank stocks doing Better Energy stocks doing Better Technology doing a little bit better what has been the leadership or what has been going down has been held care, for example, Consumer Staples and they are lagging today. There is a an attempt to buy the most losing sectors and some of the most sectors that have been down the least they are playing something different. You know whats going on if the malls. Its been down 60 this month. Biggest landlord in the u. S. Said they closing their malls and outlets. Take a look at apache. Trying to rally for two days banks some of these stocks down 50 or many. Having the best way to its crisis began over a month ago and several of the big super regionals. Also having their best day in a month. Back to you. Bob, thanks very much hi, rick hi, tyler were down about 20 basis points and two year note yields were down the curve is steepening. Its called the bull steepener because prices are going up but steepening nn thel ining noneth. We pretty much whitewashed yesterday. Every one was nervous. We saw raises rate a bit its a strange dynamic in fixed income land. Look at the dollar index this chart starts january of 2017 its just been a stellar move with regard to whats going on in Foreign Exchange volatility remember, tomorrows the third friday of march. March, june, third fridays, quadruple. It might no t be as intense as people think many of those put are rolliworr about rolling over going to be a big one tomorrow back to you. Kayla, what can you tell us . Reporter well, kelly, we are awaiting the president going to fema, having that teleconference with the governors, talking about efforts at the state level to combat this virus that is expanding by the day ive been talking to sources who are close to discussions on capitol hill where the senate and the house are trying to put be ento pap pen to paper on what this stimulus package looks like. The price fashion is expetag iso grow its likely to only get bigger the second point is lawmakers are skeptical about a bail out of boeing. They believe there are Many Industries and Many Companies that are deserving of stimulus because the coronavirus, as they see it, is an act of god boeing have been describing in the same realm as aig become in the financial crisis whose Current Situation is the result of their own corporate decision. Underwriting a lot of risky securities in boeing case, the issue with the 737 max throughout the course of this year. Unclear whether the administration will step in and say theres a National Security or some sort of strategic importance but its clear the way that lawmakers want to describe this package is provide much needed injection into the American Economy as i explained yesterday that legislation was hardly perfect it imposes new cost and uncertainty on Small Businesses at precisely the most challenging moment for Small Businesses in living memory. The senate is even more determines that our legislation cannot leave Small Business behind reporter its clear that helping Small Business here is politically palatablpalatable. Then theres the question of what do you do for businesses that are stuck in the middle who are not small and theyre not being but really hurting at this time back to do you thank you very much the dow is on base for its worst week since the financial crisis in 2008 out doing last weeks record selling sell off. The president and mobile chief i vestment for Wells Fargo Asset Management let me begin can some discuss about the bond market and why were seeing what were seeing there. It seems counterintu tiitive tht yields might have moved higher in recent days what does that tell you. Does it tell you that nobody wants to buy longer dated bonds and wants to go into cash so they got to pay more interest to attract buyers i think theres some of that. You have to remember theres a lot of unwarranting of leverage and in the equity market collateral like treasuries that you were posting are fo longer needed i think thats had some effect dont forget theres going to be an awful lot of supply here. I think the market is digesting that as well to your point, the trade given all the volatility earlier in the week was the short end of the Treasury Curve look, i think at the end of the day i think the treasury market is functioning as best it can. On the run treasuries are trading. A lot better than it was on monday whats interesting to me is i think were all benefitting in an ironic way from the problems in 2008 because the government, in my mind, is bringing out the same play book in a lot of ways that we did in 2008. The money markets are much more stable today with this new facility than they were yesterday. Joe, were assuming the market is pricing in a recession here what if this is worse than a recession . Well, its possible we have done some work on recessions and the different kinds of you get there are cyclical recessions and structural ones. This is clear an event driven recession which means on average its about a 30 , 29 if you go back in time typical decline. If its a secular decline it can go as much as 58 . Going into this, pes were fine there were no structural issues with the banks were coming in with a very different backdrop than we did in 2000 when valuations were very stretched we had a lot of people other financing their homes. Thats not the case. That means while the earnings projections are questionable today given the uncertainty we have the recovery should be a lot quicker. Event driven recessions, average 29 . Were down 35 already. The recoveries tend to be much, much quicker again, i think what i would suggest to people is we already priced in the recession do you really believe it will be a lot worse. If it is, are you going to be able to get back in soon enough to capture the recovery. What we si ay to people is keepa long term perspective. Were going to get through this. Were eight weeks behind asia. Asia is coming back online it will be messy but we have already gone through the big part of the decline. That doesnt mean were not going to mess around, bumping around bit the worst thing you do is make short term emotional decisions it will completely change your long term plans. Are you worried that companies will be furloughing workers whether its marriott and others will be quick to fire and not so quick to rehire were very concerned about the labor market and unemployment well have to see. I think a lot of the Government Programs are going to help in terms of assisting individuals the what impact will that have on Consumer Spending in the economy. Theres no question the economy is taking a big dent were going to have to keep watching those particular sectors and individuals will be affected by this joe, you meant to reassure me that, thank goodness we dont have a structural problem in the economy. I guess i am grateful for that fact but we have an economy when you drive to work, it feels like christmas morning. Nobody is on the road. No businesses are open it is a ghost town we have an economy thats fundamentally, at least in the region, ground almost to a halt. My question has to do with leverage we have much more debt and liquidity. The amount of leverage when you have a global shutdown, it exposes the risk that maybe other bsh was really incon sooefrable before. If youre diversified youll be fine were doing it kelly did a very nice job with her newsletter every day that will mean, that if you take some of the leverage out of the system or change the terms on that that a lot of the return on equity might come down a little. That does not mean with the 35 decline we priced a lot of that in there it lacks one event that will change our models about the level of risk you can take when you boar remoney or lend money the ramifications where its the unemployment that we talked about how aggressively people furlough or rehire how we borrow and lend money will change some even if we have a recovery that 70 or 80 of that in the next five or six month, multiples still look quite attractive. Thats the thing to keep in mind thank you as well we appreciate your time today. Well be checking back with you soon hotel stocks have been bouncing back today. Marriott hilton. We have more on the Hotel Industry lets start with marriott they said occupancy levels have fallen to below 25 from about 70 a year ago its roll out a number of changes. Its suspended dividends and halting sharer buyback cutting salaries for executive team members by 50 . I spoke with the chairman who owned 130 hotels he is looking to convert three properties hes drafting a proposal that he will be sending to each city that those hotels are located in stay with us. We want to discuss this further with david hes the ceo and president of best western hotels and resorts. Its one of the hotel leaders who met with the president on tuesday. Its great that you can join under the circumstances. First of all, how bad are things for your operations right now . Its very bad if you consider the last worst decline that we had in the industry was in 2009 and we declined in revenue by 16 last week it was worse than 40 . It happened so abruptly. Now, of course, every one is trying to figure out how to keep your employees please remind us how many of them you have. How you can keep them going. What would it take in terms of support and assistance from the government we have well over 2,000 hotels in the United States alone. Most of these are Small Businesses owned by hard working men and women. Theyre business is up tremendously only about 3 of the hotels are closed most of our hotels that are still open dont know how much they can last given the situation. Thaim very thankful for kon congre congress and the administration moving so fast to provide relief for Small Businesses im hopeful it will provide further relief to say open you said 3 of your hotels are closed are you going to convert any of those into makeshift hospitals to make with the shortage the nation is dealing with now every one has to do his or her share. I think our hotels would want to help out in this regard. At the same time we cant put our employees at risk. David, you alongside other hotel ceos, you were at the white house on tuesday you proposed or requested 150 billion bail out when do you expect to hear back from the Trump Administration on that well, at the white house meeting with the president and Vice President and secretary ross, we impress on them the you are jen urgent and dire situan the industry is in we talked about employee rehiring i was very encouraged with the president s reception. He was interested. He w he demonstrated the Leadership Qualities that one hoped to see. He said he was working on solutions for businesses large and small. For individuals who had been harmed he projected optimism about the future im impressed with how Fast Congress with working with the administration to get things done david, im curious if you can elaborate a bit. You said you were down 40 last week in terms of business. How much thats picked up from two weeks ago. How much worse do you think it might get. Maybe you can kind of give us more of a decryscriptive languae and where the declines are the worst now . Its tied together. Let me comment that the decline is uneven. The major cities, new york city, chicago, los angeles, these cities are hurting the most. They have seen the worst decline. When i say 40 some percent, thats the average industry. You think about those major cities, some of them running 10 occupancy or in single digits. Those are the hotels that are having to close because theres no way they can make it. The impact is uneven at this point. All right david, we thank you for joining us today for some of the color on that meeting with the the president add well and whats happening in your Hotels David Kong is the ceo of best western. The Federal Reserve has been working to stabilize the markets. Steve has been speaking to the boston fed president good afternoon. The boston fed is in charge of this new Money Market Fund he hopes this new fund will restore the liquidity where businesses put their money and where they have to take them out. That causes the money markets not to be able to fund other businesses that are out there so the fed stepped in boston in charge of that and it opens up on monday here is what else he told me he expects markets to stabilize. It could take a week or two. Talking about the credit markets because it takes time for this stuff to work. Cant just expect it to happen overnight. He says this backstop should address the dysfunction and he will see significantly more layoffs over nec week or two we also talked about some other things here is what he said i think at this point we should just go day by day and everything should be on the table. Things we think will help stabilize financial markets. The goal of the Federal Reserve is to avoid financial spillovers theres nothing we can do about the fact that the coronavirus is a major hit to the economy people that are working in Public Health and fiscal proil are going to have very fa substantial roles. Here is a list of things. Theres only two things on the list it opened dollar swap lines with nine foreign Central Banks the day is young it was midnight in europe when they did their 750 billion euro purchase the day is still young we may get more stuff from the fed. He says everything should be on the table. For sure. Thanks again, steve. Well have much more news still ahead. Going to take a quick break. Here are the sectors leading with the dow up 374 points today. Its energy with a rebound in oil. Well be right back. Through the at t network, edgetoedge intelligence gives you the power to see every corner of your growing business. From using feedback to innovate. To introducing products faster. To managing website inventory. And network bandwidth. Giving you a nice big edge over your competition. Thats the power of edgetoedge intelligence. But when allergies attack,f any the excitement fades. Allegra helps you say yes with the fastest nondrowsy allergy relief and turning a half hearted yes, into an all in yes. Allegra. Live your life, not your allergies. When yowhat do you see . Itical issues facing our world, we see a billion more people breathing free. We see access to fresh food being the global norm, not the exception. We see homes staying cooler, without the planet getting warmer. At emerson, when issues become inspiration, focusing core strengths to create a better world isnt just a result, its a responsibility. Emerson. Consider it solved. Mortgage industry is responding for the potential in a big spike of delinquencies from borrowers who cant make their payments thanks. Thanks for joining us. You Just Announced a 60 day mor tor rum for e kwiks so l are u considering something more drastic . Were immediately focused on the next 60 days well roll out something larger, if it looks like this crisis will go beyond that. We are hoping to extend that time period if need be nobody has to worry about losing their home and people can stay in place during this crisis. Will it hit their credit score . If you are experiencing a hardship because of this crisis, you have to reach out to your servicer if youre in a forebearance plan, it will not be reported to your Credit Bureau if you dont reach out to your lender and boent pay, you will get hit. Its so important for lenders, for borrowers to reach out to their lender we have no idea how long this will go on we have changed our expect to expect more flat price environment, if this does go on for a considerable amount of time, we may see some real price declines everybody wants to stay in their home thats the positive. What were trying to do is facilitate people staying in their home and not walking away. If quicker we get through this, the quicker that people who have lost their jobs can regain their jobs and get back to this. I think this will be something we can get through pretty quickly. Our informs today is dealing with the Public Health and hardship affects on the families the borrowers dont pay, what about the mortgage bond holders. For the delinquencies if this is a short term event six to eight weeks we believe the servicers are equipped to get thu this time if this goes beyond that, then we may have to look for public assistance from congress, from the fed. Thanks so much for joining us back to you. Thank you very much ill kick it over to kelly lets get to sue in terms of the latest in italy, the death toll continues to rise. A total of 3405 deaths have been reported thats 150 more than in china. Its pivots from yaz asia. The red cross has been forced to cancel all blood drives. The u. S. Concern general says that has created an acute shortage of blood. Donated blood is an essential part of caring for nations one donation can save up to three lives. Blood centers are in need of your donation. Blood donation is safe carnival is asking governments to consider using cruise ships as temporary hospitals. It says it has more than 100 ships with room for more than 250,000 noncovid19 patients. That would free up hospitals

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